News : POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: 6 neighborhoods to watch in the Boston mayor's race

Monday, September 13, 2021

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: 6 neighborhoods to watch in the Boston mayor's race

Sep 13, 2021

TALKING TURNOUT — With five major candidates battling in the Boston mayor's race and three seemingly locked in a tight race for second place, which two hopefuls advance from tomorrow's preliminary election may be decided by voter turnout.

Got it?

City Councilor Michelle Wu holds a commanding lead in recent polls, leaving three of her competitors — acting Mayor Kim Janey and City Councilors Andrea Campbell and Annissa Essaibi George — fighting for the second spot to advance to the November general election, while former city economic development chief John Barros trails far behind.

Turnout in Boston's off-year municipal elections doesn't tend to be high. A more traditional turnout level on Tuesday could benefit Essaibi George, while a higher turnout could boost Janey or Campbell, according to a recent analysis from the MassINC Polling Group.

It's not just the number of voters that matters, but also who heads to the polls— and from which neighborhoods — that could make the difference. The candidates aren't leaving anything to chance. All five spent the weekend criss-crossing the city (and sometimes running into each other at events) as they raced to reach voters from Mattapan to Allston.

Here are some of the key neighborhoods to watch on Tuesday:

East Boston — This neighborhood is home to the city's only majority-Latino voting ward. There hasn't been a Latino candidate in the race since state Rep. Jon Santiago dropped out. Santiago and other prominent Latino leaders have endorsed Janey, but East Boston City Councilor Lydia Edwards has endorsed Wu. All of the candidates have made plays in battleground Eastie — from Janey, who held a get-out-the-vote rally and knocked doors there on Saturday, to Essaibi George, whose bright-pink signs adorn buildings across the neighborhood.

Roxbury and Mattapan — Roxbury is Janey's home; Mattapan is Campbell's. But in both neighborhoods, it's a "very competitive election" between the two Black women in the race, said Wilnelia Rivera, a political consultant who's personally supporting Wu but not working for her. Higher turnout in both of these neighborhoods, which are home to significant portions of the city's Black voters, could help give either woman — or both — the edge over Essaibi George.

Dorchester — This is Essaibi George's base, and she'll need to do well here to move on. But Wu has also performed well across the different and diverse parts of Dorchester in her at-large council races, and "the margins for Andrea and Kim are in there as well," Rivera said. Keep an eye on this area as an indicator of how voters who have historically supported Essaibi George and Wu in their council races are breaking this time around.

South Boston and Charlestown — These largely white neighborhoods have been key bases for more moderate candidates in citywide races. In this progressive-leaning field, that's Essaibi George. These neighborhoods haven't received a lot of attention this time around, and Southie's major pols haven't endorsed. Watch if voters here turn out, and for whom.

GOOD MONDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. I'd like to hear from you: Which two candidates do you think will make it through tomorrow's preliminary election? Who did you vote for, or are you still undecided, and why?

TODAY — Janey greets kindergarteners for their first day of school in Dorchester at 8:30 a.m. Rep. Jim McGovern will tour Community Servings' Food Campus to mark its 10-millionth medically tailored meal at 11 a.m. Secretary of State Bill Galvin hosts a media availability ahead of Tuesday's municipal preliminary elections at 11 a.m. outside the State House. Our Revolution activists rally outside Rep. Richard Neal's Springfield office at 11 a.m.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Get in touch: lkashinsky@politico.com.

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THE RACE FOR CITY HALL

– "With election approaching, Boston's mayoral hopefuls in final push across city," by Danny McDonald and Stephanie Ebbert, Boston Globe: "While the candidates make their final push ahead of Tuesday, launching canvass squads and other efforts to encourage supporters to head to the polls, more than 21,000 people have already voted, according to city authorities. As of Friday, the city had received more than 16,000 mail-in ballots while more than 5,000 voters cast ballots in person at early voting sites."

– "It's a 'Brawl in Beantown,' as Progressive Allies Clash in the Boston Mayor's Race," by Ellen Barry, New York Times: "Not so long ago, Boston's leading progressives called themselves 'sisters in service,' linking arms to take on this city's overwhelmingly white, overwhelmingly male old guard. ... But that time is over. Over the past month, Boston's mayoral election has become a fierce competition between four women of color, any of whom would represent a departure from this city's norm."

– "Progressives Have a Chance to Beat Moderates in Boston's Mayoral Race," by Bill Scher, Washington Monthly: "In 2021, moderate Democrats have been defeating progressives in high-profile contests. ... Boston, however, may break this trend with Tuesday's nonpartisan preliminary mayoral election."

– "On a weekly peace walk in Roxbury, Boston's mayoral candidates are urged to talk more about street violence," by Meghan E. Irons, Boston Globe: "...since the walks resumed this spring after a pause due to the pandemic, [The Rev. Arthur T. Gerald Jr.] said, none of the candidates for mayor has joined him. The hopefuls have visited the so-called Mass and Cass area and talked about violence there multiple times. (One of them lives in the area.) But the candidates have rarely shown up at crime scenes in other parts of the city that experience different types of violence, including shootings, some anticrime advocates say. Their absence at these life-changing and traumatic events has caused consternation, on a granular level, among residents in some of the city's communities that have seen their share of crime and trauma." More from Irons: "Boston mayoral candidates' respond to critiques on their views on violence"

– From the opinion pages: "Don't count out the Republican vote in the Boston mayoral election," by Marcela García, Boston Globe: "With this year's preliminary mayoral campaign entering its final days, and polls predicting an extremely close race, those numbers loom large. Boston might not have enough Republicans or Republican-leaning voters to actually elect a mayor — but it's still a rich, often-overlooked trove of votes that could help boost one of those Democrats."

– WATCH: "Boston Mayor's Race: Candidates On Diversity In The City," by Jon Keller, WBZ.

ON THE STUMP

Take a peek into my reporter's notebook from over the weekend:

– Sen. Elizabeth Warren rallied with Wu at the Chinatown Gate on Saturday evening and returned to the trail with her on Sunday. "She's family," Warren said. "Michelle has good values. You want good values in a leader. Michelle has good plans to enact those values. I love a woman with a plan. But good values and good plans won't get you anywhere if you're not willing to get in the fight. I love Michelle because she is a fighter."

– Campbell campaigned across all 23 Boston neighborhoods over the weekend, charging through the city's streets in sneakers and a campaign t-shirt, encountering undecided voters, some folks who've voted for her already, and even tourists who'd seen a commercial for her on TV. "I just like her stance on housing, I like her story, I think she's got some guts," Roslindale resident Rich Frank told me. "It's a hard choice, but I've sort of been behind her since she announced and I've stuck with her. I like Michelle Wu, though, too, so I won't be disappointed with whoever it is."

– Essaibi George told me she was feeling "butterflies" on Sunday with just two days left until the preliminary election. "I'm just looking forward to getting to Tuesday," she laughed. "But I still have a few things to do."

– A red-white-and-blue-clad Janey rallied with union workers before hitting the doors with them on Saturday in Eastie, where she posed for pictures with voters and passersby, and scrawled notes on campaign literature left for those who weren't home.

– Barros sees a path to victory on Tuesday — even if few others do. The second-time mayoral candidate defended his weak polling on WCVB's "On the Record" on Sunday. "The polls have never been right. Show me a poll that's been right. Eric Adams was dead last, he wasn't supposed to be the mayor of New York," Barros said in reference to the NYC Democratic mayoral primary winner. But Adams started leading polls in early May, about two months before he secured his spot in the final.

– Polls have shown the percentage of undecided voters shrinking as decision-day approaches. But several voters I encountered over the weekend while out on the trail with the candidates have yet to make up their minds with less than 48 hours to go. "I can't differentiate the candidates, in particular because there are three very similar progressive candidates," South Boston resident Kevin Jang told me outside a Fort Point artists' event that Essaibi George and Wu stopped through at the same time. "Annissa's different, but I just don't know enough information."

– Here are some of the candidates' election-eve plans: Janey greets MBTA riders at Ashmont station at 7:30 a.m. and hosts a canvass launch with UNITE HERE Local 26 at 3:30 p.m. on Blue Hill Avenue. Essaibi George hosts a standout and rally at 6 p.m. at the corner of Adams Street and Gallivan Boulevard in Dorchester. Campbell hosts a rally at Franklin Square Park in the South End at 6:15 p.m.

FROM THE HUB

– "Boston Public Schools superintendent gets full license back," by Sean Philip Cotter, Boston Herald: BPS announced Friday that the state told them that [Superintendent Brenda] Cassellius had passed her licensure test last month, meaning she now is back fully licensed after a lapse."

THE LOCAL ELECTIONS ROUNDUP

– "Preliminary elections struggle to spark voter interest in key seats," by Steven H. Foskett Jr., Worcester Telegram & Gazette: "Early voting, so popular in the national election last year, is now a fixture of local elections, and was going on all last week for the two [Worcester City Council] seats in which the number of candidates — more than double the available seats — triggered the runoff. But did voters take advantage for the typically sleepy preliminary contests? Not in droves for this one, to be sure."

– "The 'million dollar question' facing Somerville: Will a new mayor slow down the city's development boom?" by Jon Chesto, Boston Globe.

– Catch up on the Brockton mayor's race ahead of Tuesday's preliminary election with these candidate profiles from the Brockton Enterprise.

VAX-ACHUSETTS

– "Coronavirus testing demand has increased in the face of the delta variant," by Alexi Cohan, Boston Herald: "Demand for coronavirus testing has increased significantly due to the ultra-contagious delta variant, and the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard is processing nearly 100,000 tests on some days, numbers that haven't been seen since May."

– "Low COVID-19 teen vaccination rates plague many hard-hit Mass. communities as students start school," by Kay Lazar, Boston Globe: "Teenagers in many of the cities and towns hardest hit by COVID-19 are getting vaccinated at alarmingly low rates, according to an analysis from a Harvard University researcher, raising concerns there could be a fresh surge in infections as schools open for in-person classes across Massachusetts. The analysis, which focused on 42 communities that have had some of the state's highest infection rates through most of the pandemic, found that 37 of them recorded teen vaccination rates lower, and in some cases dramatically lower, than the state average for teens."

– "A Supreme Court case that originated in Mass. could provide a legal precedent for President Biden's vaccine mandates, experts say," by Amanda Kaufman, Boston Globe: "In 1905, the Supreme Court ruled 7-2 in Jacobson v. Massachusetts that public health measures, like vaccination, imposed by states are constitutional because, in essence, living in society comes with restrictions, including those pertaining to public health. … Now in the wake of the sweeping federal vaccine mandates President Biden announced on Thursday and claims by some Republican lawmakers that the rules are unconstitutional, experts say legal challenges to the measure are likely to be unsuccessful because of the strong precedent established by the Jacobson case."

– More: "Charlie Baker squeezed on both sides of the aisle over Biden's vaccine mandate," by Amy Sokolow, Boston Herald.

PARTY POLITICS

– NEW: State Reps. Josh Cutler and Kathy LaNatra, along with Plymouth County Treasurer Tom O'Brien, Plymouth County Register of Probate Matt McDonough and other locals, are hosting a "Duxbury Community Event" in support of state Attorney General Maura Healey Tuesday evening. Suggested contributions are $200 or $500, according to an invite for the outdoor event shared with POLITICO. Healey is expected to make a decision about a run for governor this fall. In the meantime, this fundraiser is to support her work as AG.

– "Mass. governor candidate Danielle Allen calls for COVID vaccine mandate for kids 12 and up," by Christopher Gavin, Boston.com: "Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Danielle Allen is calling on Gov. Charlie Baker to step up his response to the COVID-19 pandemic in public schools and require all students over age 12 to receive vaccines for the contagious virus. … Allen, a Harvard professor, said state lawmakers should take another step and add the coronavirus vaccine to the list of vaccinations students need to attend school."

– "'Toxic' political scene in North Adams spurred a meme, a 'sock of nickels' post and a police report," by Greta Jochem, Berkshire Eagle: "It started with a meme on Facebook and led to comments about 'pent up anger' and 'a tube sock full of nickels.' And then to a North Adams city councilor filing a police report, claiming she had been threatened. Marie Harpin resigned Aug. 31 from the City Council, in the midst of her second term, citing 'an increasingly toxic Council environment.'"

DAY IN COURT

– "SJC sets limits on use of police body camera footage," by Shira Schoenberg, CommonWealth Magazine: "The court found that a police officer may record a police response in someone's home using a body camera. But the police cannot then use that footage for an unrelated investigation without a warrant."

– "Plymouth Sheriff Ends Contract To Share Immigrant Information With ICE," by Sarah Betancourt, GBH News: "Sheriff Joe McDonald told WATD radio on Friday that his office is giving notice to ICE to terminate the so-called 287(g) program 'purely as a management decision,' and that the decision has nothing to do with ongoing calls from civil rights activists to end detention of immigrants. The agreement is renewed annually."

– "'Worse than a thief': Here's how much prison time prosecutors want for Jasiel Correia," by Lynne Sullivan and Linda Murphy, Herald News: "Calling a corrupt official 'worse than a thief,' federal prosecutors asked for 11 years in prison, and almost $900,000 in penalties for convicted former mayor Jasiel Correia II."

– "Massachusetts trial court employees say they're hitting a glass ceiling due to their race and lack of privilege," by Douglas Hook, MassLive.com: "'People are scared to come forward,' said Case Specialist Sharon Rodriguez. 'They are worried that they might lose their job if they do.' Rodriguez sat and spoke of her experiences at the trial court in Springfield for over an hour highlighting that she is not the only one to have faced discrimination and a glass ceiling at the court building."

THE LOCAL ANGLE

– "Braintree's Paul Veneto completes his push to honor 9/11 flight attendants," by Fred Hanson, Patriot Ledger: "After pushing an airplane drink cart 220 miles from Logan Airport to the National September 11 Memorial and Museum at the World Trade Center, Paul Veneto brought it to a stop at the United 175 section of the memorial Saturday afternoon. The retired flight attendant dropped to one knee as he remembered his friends who died when the plane crashed into one of the towers. 'It was emotional for me,' Veneto said in a telephone interview from ground zero Saturday afternoon."

– "Fallen Marine Sgt. Johanny Rosario arrives home in Lawrence on 9/11," by Jill Harmacinski, Eagle-Tribune: "In Marine Sgt. Johanny Rosario's picture, Betsy Rodriguez saw herself. At 18, Rodriguez, a native of Puerto Rico, joined the U.S. Army and had a military career that spanned 30 years. … Rodriguez was among the thousands who lined Lawrence streets on Saturday as Rosario, a fallen daughter, was returned to the city in a somber, dignified and patriotic procession."

– "Worcester Superintendent Maureen Binienda says fight at Burncoat High School, in which principal was assaulted, is example why schools should have police," by Melissa Hanson, MassLive.com: "There's a plan in place to remove school resource officers from Worcester Public Schools come January, but Superintendent Maureen Binienda told MassLive that a fight at one high school on Friday shows why police should stay at the buildings."

ENGAGED -- Emily Schlicting, a senior associate at McKinsey and an Obama HHS alum, on Tuesday got engaged to David Demres, who works as senior leader in private equity-backed companies. The couple met at the Harvard Kennedy School, where they were both enrolled in policy degree programs while simultaneously completing their MBAs. Pic

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