Monday, September 13, 2021

Are more bad numbers coming?

These two big reports could have an affect
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Hey There,

Welcome back to another week of trading!

It's a big week ahead, and we're coming off five straight days of down markets.

Could this be the beginning of a significant reversal?

We can't know yet, but two big economic reports this week could have an effect…

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In the upcoming week, we have two big economic reports to monitor.

First, the Consumer Price Index, or CPI.

The CPI is one of our best measures of inflation, and last month's number showed a huge 8.3 percent spike year-over-year.

Analysts are expecting a calmer number this month, but another big number could be very worrying.

A higher-than-expected CPI could spark talk about the Fed changing policy, including raising its rates, which would be bad news for the markets.

We've seen big selloffs at even the mention of the Fed raising its rates in the recent past, so we'll want to watch CPI carefully to see if it sets off that chain reaction again.

The other big number, coming Thursday, is retail sales.

This will show us a lot about the health of the economy.

If retails sales are strong, then some of the concerns about inflation and especially about a slowing economy could be settled.

But if CPI is high and retail sales are low, it will point to (whether fairly or unfairly), the dreaded "s" word: stagflation.

Stagflation occurs when inflation is rising but the economy isn't improving and unemployment is high.

Some analysts believe that isn't really the case right now, but if these reports go in opposite directions, the market is likely to react poorly, whether it's a fair indication of reality or not.

So, as you're going through the week, watch carefully for CPI on Tuesday and retail sales on Thursday.

They'll be very important numbers for how the market responds this week.

Happy Monday, and happy trading!

Markay

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