News : POLITICO California Playbook: Newsom defeats recall in blue blowout

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

POLITICO California Playbook: Newsom defeats recall in blue blowout

Sep 15, 2021

By Carla Marinucci, Jeremy B. White and Camryn Dadey

Presented by the California Association of Health Plans

THE BUZZ — A BLUE BLOWOUT: California Republicans hoped to deliver Gavin Newsom 's political death knell through a recall driven by grassroots activism — but Tuesday night's decisive rejection of their efforts at the polls likely boosts the California governor's fast-track to reelection in 2022 and beyond. And he may even have set up a road map for Democrats nationwide, proving they can lean into aggressive Covid responses as a path to victory in 2022.

Newsom's statement last night after the election reflected his intentions to showcase Tuesday's resounding victory over the recall as a platform not only for California's values, but for those of his party nationally. By defeating the recall, Newsom said, "We said yes to science, we said yes to vaccines, we said yes to ending this pandemic.

"We said yes to people's right to vote without fear of significant voter suppression. We said yes to [a woman's] fundamental constitutional right to decide … what she does with her body, her fate and her future. We said yes to diversity, we said yes to inclusion, we said yes to pluralism. We said yes to all those things we hold dear as Californians — and, I would argue, Americans."

California Gov. Gavin Newsom addresses reporters after beating back the recall, Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2021.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom addresses reporters after beating back the recall, Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2021. | AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli

But Newsom — taking that national perspective — warned again about the delicacy of democracy, saying that "Trumpism is not dead in this country..it's a remarkable moment in our country's history." Read POLITICO's story by Jeremy and Alex Nieves for the full report.

THE TIMING: So much for a late night. Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wasserman was first to call it, declaring Newsom the winner at 8:12 p.m., just 12 minutes after polls closed. Networks followed within about half an hour, and the team at POLITICO declared Newsom the victor at 8:39 p.m.

BY THE NUMBERS:

—Question two: Team Newsom and Democrats exhorted voters over and over to vote no and leave the replacement question blank. Voters appear to have listened: More than 4 million fewer voters chose a candidate than voted on the up-or-down recall question.

—The margin: As of this writing, "no" on recall was demolishing "yes" by nearly 28-points. (Newsom's winning margin in 2018 was about 24 points). But keep in mind that California law says ballots count as long as they are postmarked by Election Day and arrive within seven days after, so we will see the vote total continue to shift for days.

—Elder leads: Among the replacement candidates, Republican Larry Elder dominated, with 46.9 percent of the vote, with all precincts partially reporting. And there were three prominent Kevins in this race: YouTuber Kevin Paffrath, the most prominent Democratic challenger, who came in 9.8 percent, followed by Republican former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer at 8.6 percent and Republican Assemblymember Kevin Kiley with 3.2 percent. Businessman John Cox came in with 4.4 percent, while reality show Caitlyn Jenner, who arguably enjoyed the biggest name recognition in the pack, didn't even make the top ten with about 1.1 percent of the vote.

Republican conservative radio show host Larry Elder speaks to supporters after losing the California gubernatorial recall election Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2021.

Republican conservative radio show host Larry Elder speaks to supporters after losing the California gubernatorial recall election Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2021. | AP Photo/Ashley Landis

SCENES FROM LARRY'S LAIR: Elder held an election night "victory party" at the Costa Mesa Hilton, where POLITICO's Alex Nieves reports that the crowd thinned out once the race was called, well before Elder took the stage after 10 p.m. His message was defiant, but the candidate conceded his loss: "Let's be gracious in defeat. ... We may have lost the battle but we are going to win the war."

— Contrast with a post-election tweet from Faulconer: "The path to victory in California is to win by addition — bringing folks together across the spectrum. … I trust the democratic process and know Californians deserve a governor focused on solving California's problems."

FINAL FRAUD FRENZY — DID TRUMP AND ELDER SUPPRESS THE GOP VOTE? California Republican voters may have been dissuaded from casting in-person ballots on Election Day by the baseless claims of a "rigged election" from both former President Donald Trump and Elder, whose website included a prominent link to a site that alleged a fraudulent election result before voting had even concluded.

Voter info guru Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc. told POLITICO that early in-person voting for Election Day wasn't as robust as expected, and that "of course" Trump and Elder had an effect on the GOP turnout. "They've told their voters to vote in person. And now the largest day of in-person voting, they're telling the voters the election's over. It is insane," Mitchell said.

Even before Newsom prevailed, some Republicans were adamant that the fraud claims were hurting their cause. Faulconer aide Ron Nehring called Elder's website "the most irresponsible act I've ever seen from a CA candidate in my 20 years in politics here." Recall backer Tom Del Beccarotold POLITICO that "anybody who discourages voters isn't being helpful" and "the answer to voter fraud concerns isn't to sit at home."

STATE GOP CHAIR JESSICA MILLAN PATTERSON didn't respond to requests for comment on the issue of fraud accusations. But she said in a statement that Newsom "was rescued by two presidents, radical left-wing Washington D.C. politicians, and campaign spending in excess of $50 million." She deemed Newsom's victory "hollow,"' in light of "surging crime, raging wildfires, crippling drought, a broken unemployment department, shuttered businesses, lost jobs,'' and more.

A replace and recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom sign.

A replace and recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom sign. | AP Photo/Richard Vogel

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — THE ELDER EFFECT: A polling memo from Faulconer's campaign firm WPA Intelligence cited evidence from two statewide polls of likely recall voters, conducted in August and September, to argue that Elder's bombastic candidacy tanked the election for Republicans. It found Elder's image went from relatively even in mid-August, with only 3 percent more voters rating him as "unfavorable" than "favorable," to that unfav rating soaring to nearly half of voters, even as his favorability remained static at about a third of the electorate. The memo concluded that 17 percent of people likely not to vote would have if Elder hadn't entered, and Republican voters comprised 60 percent of that group.

WHAT DID EXIT POLLS SAY? CNN's Ariel Edwards-Levy reported that Covid-19 was at the top of voters' minds on Election Day, with 63 percent telling Edison Research that getting a vaccine is a "public health responsibility,''and Democrats were far more likely to call coronavirus their top issue, while Republicans were more focused on the economy. But exit polling from CBS had some good news for Elder as 2022 material: " 3 out of 4 CA Republicans like him, as do almost 50% of NPP. 75%+ of those backing the #CARecall view him favorably,'' reported KCBS' Doug Sovern.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT — RECALL REFORM? A post-recall Legislature storyline to watch: Assembly Elections Committee chair Marc Berman and Senate Elections chair Steve Glazer say they'll unveil their "plans to fix a broken recall system" today, and numerous lawmakers came out publicly for the same as results rolled in. The now-failed recall has magnified criticism of California's notoriously idiosyncratic recall process, and polls have shown some voter appetite to make changes. The NYT also took a look at the reform momentum.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. The Sacramento Press Club hosts a recall post-mortem with strategists from the Newsom, Faulconer and Elder campaigns, with the LA Times' Phil Willon and the Sac Bee's Sophia Bollag asking the questions. Noon, and free to all on the SacPressClub Facebook live channel.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit cmarinucci@politico.com or jwhite@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @cmarinucci and @jeremybwhite.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I have now become a political force here in California, … particularly within the California Republican Party , and I'm not going to leave the stage." Elder tells KMJ Radio whether he plans to run again when Newsom is up for reelection in 2022. He'll probably collide with Faulconer, who told supporters that "tonight was Round 1. There's more to come."

BONUS QOTD: "We're outnumbered two to one by Democrats. … Elder is just trying to be the most popular Republican in a state where it doesn't really mean anything to be the most popular Republican." Republican strategist Rob Stutzman on CNN.

TWEET OF THE DAY: LA Times scribe @MarkZBarabak: "Tweet-length Analysis: There are far more Democrats than Republicans in California. Early interest + intensity were on the side of recall proponents. Once @GavinNewsom and allies were able to rouse Democrats to vote in a weirdly timed election, that was that. {With room to spare}"

BONUS TOTD: Former DCCC spox @DrewGodinich on Elder signaling he'll run again: "That is… not what down ballot Rs want to hear for 2022"

WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

A message from the California Association of Health Plans:

The California legislature passed harmful legislation that puts patients at risk and increases health care costs for Californians. Now the bill is heading to Governor Newsom. SB 524 raises health care costs by eliminating the effective tools health plans, employers, unions, and the state use to lower the cost of health insurance and prescription drugs. It limits access to lifesaving medications and lowers patient safety standards. Save our care. Stop SB 524. Learn more.

TOP TALKERS

STEP BY STEP — How Gavin Newsom beat the recall, by POLITICO's David Siders and Carla Marinucci: For a moment this summer, Gavin Newsom's inner circle feared the effort to recall him could be drawing uncomfortably close. In late July and early August, the Delta variant of the coronavirus was raging, threatening school reopenings in the fall. Public polling showed many Democrats were so apathetic about voting that it was possible — if turnout was low enough — that a Republican could win.

"Clearly there was a time in the summer where the thing went from ... this optimism [about Covid] like, 'Oh, the war is over, it's ended,' to 'Oh, shit,'" said Ace Smith, Newsom's lead strategist.

GOING DOWN — "California now 1 of only 3 states to exit CDC's 'high' COVID transmission category," by the SF Chronicle's Aidin Vaziri: "California no longer has a 'high' level of community coronavirus transmission, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

— "It's now Larry Elder's California GOP. What's his next move?" by LATimes' James Rainey.

— "Cox contemplates running again despite rejection at polls," by San Diego Union-Tribune's Deborah Sullivan Brennan.

MUST-READ — "I was a carefree kid" — Rose Lehane Tureen, 13, of Sacramento, California, is a COVID long-hauler,'' via USA Today's Karen Weintraub: "Before COVID-19, Rose would bounce from a full school day to a 7-mile run, then to soccer practice or dance class – she loves Irish step dancing. Now, though she still participates, she tires easily." WITH VIDEO in her own words.

TED SCHLEIFER's latest for new outlet, Puck Media: — "'I's Good to be Wealthy': Joe Lonsdale, Silicon Valley Apostate" — "Probably most famous for co-founding Palantir with his longtime mentor, Peter Thiel, Lonsdale displays little inhibition at a time, and in an industry, when the gap between what people say publicly and what they profess privately often couldn't be wider."

CAMPAIGN MODE

THE OTHER RECALL — Sonoma County district attorney recall fails as voters back keeping Jill Ravitch," by the Press-Democrat's Emma Murphy and Lori A. Carter: "Sonoma County District Attorney Jill Ravitch triumphed Tuesday in a recall election seeking her ouster, as an overwhelming majority of voters — more than 80% in early returns— rejected the campaign bankrolled by a wealthy local developer who Ravitch's office sued over the abandonment of elderly residents in a pair of Santa Rosa care homes in the 2017 Tubbs fire."

— "In red California, recall backers fuel unfounded claims of 'rigged' voting, bait workers ," by the the LA Times' Diana Marcum and Priscilla Vega: "The Central Valley has long been a stronghold for red California. And on Tuesday, there were loud voices of support for the recall while some election workers had to deal with taunts over unfounded conservative claims of election fraud."

— "Column: Larry Elder and the danger of the 'model minority' candidate," opines Frank Shyong in the LA Times.

SKELTON SPEAKS— "Larry Elder joining the recall race was the best thing that could've happened to Newsom," by the LA Times' George Skelton: "Elder carried with him three decades of provocative right-wing rhetoric that Newsom turned into a scary wake-up alarm for snoozing Democrats. It jarred them into voting against Newsom's ouster out of fear that Elder would replace him as governor."

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

FIREWORK MISSTEP — "LAPD badly miscalculated weight of fireworks before South L.A. explosion, ATF finds," by the LA Times' Brittny Mejia and Kevin Rector: "LAPD Chief Michel Moore, who also spoke at the closed-door meeting, said the fireworks that were placed in the containment vessel were not weighed with a scale but eyeballed by the technicians working the scene."

— "Judge digs deeper into PG&E's suspected role in Dixie Fire," by AP's Michael Liedtke: "U.S. District Judge William Alsup has repeatedly hammered PG&E for creating dangers with its fraying equipment, igniting some of the deadliest wildfires in California, causing so much death and destruction during 2017 and 2018 that the company negotiated more than $25 billion in settlements during a 17-month bankruptcy that ended last year."

STATUE STANDOFF — "SF archbishop pleads with Newsom to save Junipero Serra statue at state Capitol ," by the SF Chronicle's Sam Whiting: "Last month, the state Legislature passed a bill to replace the statue with a monument to Sacramento-area Native American tribes. The bill, approved by the Senate on a 28-2 vote, now awaits Newsom's signature."

— "Thousands of LAPD employees plan to seek exemptions to COVID-19 vaccine mandate," by the LA Times' Emily Alpert Reyes and Kevin Rector.

EVICTIONS UP — "Data shows eviction notices are rising in San Francisco. Particularly for being a 'nuisance,'" by the SF Chronicle's Susie Neilson: "San Francisco's eviction moratorium hasn't prevented landlords from filing over a thousand eviction notices in the city since the pandemic began, according to a Chronicle analysis."

—"Contra Costa County orders COVID-19 vaccine proof or negative test for indoor restaurants, gyms," by LATimes' Rong-Gong Lin II.

— "California wildfires: Caldor Fire damage inspection complete; Dixie Fire near million acres ," by the Sac Bee's Michael McGough: "Cal Fire and the U.S. Forest Service reported the blaze Tuesday morning at 219,267 acres (343 square miles) with 68% containment. Officials said active fire behavior inside the perimeter continued due to low humidity, but the fire's reported acreage did not increase overnight."

TREES IN DANGER — "California Wildfires Threaten Giant Sequoias," by NYT' Jenny Gross.

A message from the California Association of Health Plans:

BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

ON THE HILL — 40-plus tax increases: A rundown of House Dems' $2 trillion tax plan," by POLITICO's Brian Faler: Lawmakers want the money to fund plans to greatly boost government benefits, from expanding access to pre-K programs to beefing up Medicare — though Democrats remain at odds over the plan's total size, with Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia balking at designs to spend $3.5 trillion.

SILICON VALLEYLAND

— "Facebook Knows Instagram Is Toxic for Teen Girls, Company Documents Show," by Wall Street Journal's Georgia Wells, Jeff Horwitz and Deepa Seetharaman: "Its own in-depth research shows a significant teen mental-health issue that Facebook plays down in public."

NET NEUTRALITY — "California net neutrality clash heads to court," by POLITICO's Benjamin Din.

CALIFORNIA BOOM — "Amazon eyes 125K more hires, $18+ per hour average salary," via the AP's Joseph Pisani and Michelle Chapman: "Amazon's starting pay is still $15 per hour, but with labor markets growing so tight in regions of the country, the company said new hires could make as much as $22.50 an hour. It's also paying sign-on bonuses of $3,000 in some places."

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HOLLYWOODLAND

— "Commercial Producers Can Mandate Vaccines On-Set, SAG-AFTRA Says," by Hollywood Reporter's Katie Kilkenny: "The Joint Policy Committee, LLC, which represents advertisers and advertising agencies, announced an addendum to its existing COVID-19 safety agreement with the union on Friday."

— "TMZ sold to Fox Entertainment," by CNN Business' Kerry Flynn.

CANNABIS COUNTRY

— "California marijuana, hemp industries hail CBD bill passage, but farmers might sue to halt it," by MJBizDaily's John Schroyer.

MEDIA MATTERS

— "Nolan McCaskill joins the Los Angeles Times as congressional beat reporter," via Los Angeles Times Washington Bureau Chief Kimbriell Kelly: "Nolan McCaskill has been named the inaugural reporter to launch a new congressional beat in the Los Angeles Times' Washington, D.C., office, starting Sept. 20."

— "The loss of SF Weekly — gradually, then suddenly — is incalculable," by Mission Local's Joe Eskenazi.

MIXTAPE

— "Former San Diego sheriff's deputy convicted on 16 rape, molestation charges," by the San Diego Union-Tribune's Morgan Cook and Jeff McDonald.

— " Sac State denies campus access to 4,306 students after failing to certify COVID-19 vaccination status," by The State Hornet's Camryn Dadey.

— "This Mysterious Unmanned Vessel Was Just Spotted In San Diego Bay," by the Drive's Tyler Rogoway.

— "BART train drags woman to death as she's tethered to dog," by KTVU's Lisa Fernandez and Christien Kafton.

— "Hearst estate sells for $16M over bidding price at auction," by New York Post's Sarah Paynter.

— "Coastal Cleanup Day: How COVID led to more trash on California beaches," by Bay Area News Group's Paul Rogers.

— "Alleged 'Stanford murders' serial killer convicted of 1974 cold case murder," by ABC's Grace Kahng.

A message from the California Association of Health Plans:

The California legislature recently passed harmful legislation that puts patients at risk and increases health care costs for Californians. Now the bill is heading to Governor Newsom.

SB 524 raises health care costs by eliminating the tools health plans, employers, unions, and the state use to lower the cost of health insurance and prescription drugs. It places harmful restrictions on how employers and unions design pharmacy benefit plans to lower prescription drug costs—instead of letting them create the individual high-quality, affordable plans that keep their costs low and help their employees and members pay less at the pharmacy counter.

Most alarmingly, it puts California's most vulnerable patients at risk by undermining all the important safety and quality requirements for pharmacies that handle specialty medications.

Now is the time to save our care. Tell Governor Newsom: Stop SB 524.

Learn more.

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