| | | | | |  | | By Ryan Heath | Send tips and thoughts to rheath@politico.com or follow Ryan on Twitter. | | | POLITICAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROCEEDING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED It's a strange world where we need a scientific report instead of our eyes and ears to tell us what is already obvious: that our increasingly extreme climate is in serious danger of destabilizing. We're also in a world where most of us with the power to do something about it, won't do enough (headlines today in Washington are focused on circular discussions around infrastructure, in Brussels it's rule of law). Meanwhile, many of those who care most about changing that dynamic are passing around messages focused on managing their mental health reaction to a heavily previewed U.N.-sponsored climate report, instead of organizing to change the situation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (and its two-page cheat sheet) is sober, real, and here. It may be scary, reports POLITICO's climate team, but it shouldn't be triggering anything except reflection and sustained change. What's different compared to the last IPCC report? This edition is not weighing up if climate change is caused by humans, that's now a given, but is instead focused on how fast humans are changing the atmosphere and whether we can adapt. While the report's scientist authors (234 of them from 66 countries, synthesizing 14,000 research papers) don't make policy recommendations, they have — for the first time — laid out five global political scenarios and the global temperature impacts of each of them. The two most likely scenarios, in the assessment of Global Translations, are "Rocky Road" where nationalism surges, and "A Road Divided" where inequality persists. In both scenarios emissions are higher in 2100 than today, and temperatures are nearly 3 degrees Celsius higher than they are today. What we can't change: We've screwed this up so badly, that regardless of how hard and fast emissions are cut from now on, temperatures will continue to rise until the 2040s, and may hit an unpredictable tipping point (probably around a 2 degree Celsius rise) in that time. What we underplay: Reducing methane emissions — the most intensely dangerous type of emissions for the climate. Methane is the second-biggest contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide, according to the U.N. "Limiting greenhouse gases and air pollutants, especially methane, could have benefits both for health and the climate," said Panmao Zhai. co-chair of one of the IPCC working groups. | 
Birds fly over a man taking photos of the exposed riverbed of the Old Parana River during a drought in Rosario, Argentina. | Victor Caivano/AP Photo | | | | TALIBAN'S TALE OF THREE CITIES: The Taliban seized three provincial capitals — of Kunduz, Sar-i-Pul and Takhar provinces — over the weekend, and the U.S. Embassy has urges American citizens to leave Afghanistan immediately using available commercial flight options. Reality check by veteran BBC war correspondent John Simpson MIGRATION — THE CORRUPTION DRIVING EXODUS FROM GUATEMALA IS WORSENING: You want to talk about migration's root causes, as Vice President Kamala Harris does? You need to start with corruption — which is getting worse, report Sabrina Rodriguez and Eugene Daniels. CHINA — BILATERAL RELATIONS WITH PACIFIC NATIONS BECOMING AN ELECTION ISSUE: In country after country voters are scrutinizing leaders getting close to Beijing. h/t Daniel Twining BY THE NUMBERS — SANCTIONS CAN WORK: China's Huawei has reported a 38 percent drop in revenue, as sanctions — pushed by the U.S. and now spreading around the world — begin to bite. BY THE NUMBERS — EMPTY CHAIRS: President Joe Biden has completed one-seventh of his term and of the top 799 roles requiring Senate confirmation, 687 remain unfilled. There are no nominations for 476 of the positions, according to a Washington Post tracking project. | | SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY SPOTLIGHT | | HEALTH — U.S. LAST IN RICH COUNTRY HEALTH CARE RANKINGS: It's one thing to come last by a little bit, or according to a questionable metric in one of these think tank rankings. Aside from doing well on cancer treatment, the United States is so far below 10 other rich countries assessed by the New York-based Commonwealth Fund, it almost doesn't fit on the chart , which maps performance against 71 criteria. | | | U.N. — MYANMAR'S AMBASSADOR SUBJECT TO ASSASSINATION PLOT: Kyaw Moe Tun achieved hero status earlier in 2021 for standing up against a military coup conducted in his home country, and refusing to cede his post. The other effect: two of his fellow citizens plotted to attack and possibly kill him, federal prosecutors said on Friday. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said she "unequivocally condemned" the plot "which fits a disturbing pattern of authoritarian leaders and their supporters reaching across the globe — including into the United States — to persecute and repress journalists, activists, and others who dare speak or stand against them." New Yemen envoy: Hans Grundberg is the new U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen. Former envoy Martin Griffiths will move to become U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. EU — MAY REINTRODUCE ENTRY BAN ON U.S. NEXT WEEK: Since Washington refuses to open up the country to Europeans, and Covid case rates are soaring in the U.S., the EU may start applying its existing criteria for restricting entry. Today, Americans are getting a free pass — allowed into the EU in the hope that the U.S. would reciprocate the favor, and driven by a desire for tourist dollars. EU — CHEAT SHEET ON BIDEN'S MAN IN BRUSSELS: Mark Gitenstein, Joe Biden's choice to be U.S. envoy to the EU, is a close friend of the president and longtime aide, who was literally at Biden's shoulder for much of 1987 when Biden made his first run for president and led the charge to defeat Robert Bork's nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. At the time, Gitenstein was chief counsel to the Judiciary Committee, succeeded in 1989 by Ron Klain, now the White House chief of staff. Read David Herszenhorn's full portrait here. Gitenstein, a proud Romanian-American, previously served as U.S. ambassador to Romania. Dacian CioloČ™, a former Romanian prime minister who is now the head of the liberal Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, said that Gitenstein had proven to be a strong supporter of Romania at a crucial juncture in the country's history, and that his emphasis on his Romanian ancestry proved a hit with the public." "Our ambassador is my best personal friend. We have raised each other's children. We have — our wives are close friends. My grandchildren are — consider the Gitensteins to be almost relatives," then Vice President Biden said on a trip to Romania. The U.S. has been without a fully confirmed ambassador to the EU since February 2020. | | | LONG READ: How the BoBos broke America — David Brooks on the destructive capacities of the creative class. LONG READ: The 25 most significant works of post-war architecture, as curated by architects for the New York Times SHORT READ: The end of venture capital as we know it, by Sam Lessin SHORT READ: The Pandemic Business Book Boom, by Annie Lowery SHORT READ: Wolves versus Pandas, China's diplomatic messaging is at a (censored) crossroads, by Minnie Chan. Thanks to editor John Yearwood. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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