What else did we learn during BIF's long and winding road to (seemingly imminent) passage? We pinged some of the people at the center of the deal in the Senate and White House for some lessons learned. Here are some of the key takeaways: Trump: While it's probably too much to say that the infrastructure bill is a repudiation of Trump, it might be seen as a kind of senatorial subtweet of him. The five Republicans who negotiated it are the five most anti-Trump GOP senators: ROB PORTMAN (Ohio), MITT ROMNEY (Utah), LISA MURKOWSKI (Alaska), SUSAN COLLINS (Maine) and BILL CASSIDY (La.). (All but Portman voted to convict Trump at his second Senate impeachment trial earlier this year.) These are the GOP senators who have been the most vocal about Trump's actions eroding democratic norms. The bill isn't about Trump, but it was hard not to notice that those GOP senators most concerned about him were the ones who worked the hardest to show that a bipartisan democratic process was still possible. On the other hand: Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.), who voted to advance the bill, announced Sunday night that he would vote against final passage. Young is up for reelection next year, and the late-inning attacks from the Trump right vis-a-vis the timing of his opposition did not seem like a coincidence. (He cited the CBO score.) McConnell: Most observers predicted the minority leader would play a familiar role: chief obstructionist. Not only did MITCH MCCONNELL support the bipartisan talks behind the scenes, he voted to advance the bill. McConnell has clearly sided with the political argument Portman and other Republicans made on the Senate floor Sunday: The legislation is good on the merits, it could benefit the party to be seen as productive rather than purely obstructionist, and a worse version — from the GOP perspective — would have passed under reconciliation anyway. The bipartisan deal may also hurt a top Democratic priority, or at least McConnell and his colleagues hope it will. "This obviously severely undercuts the narrative that the Senate is broken and that the filibuster should be eliminated," said a senior Senate GOP aide. Sinema, Sinema, Sinema: The GOP praise for the Democratic senator from Arizona remains off the charts. While we were all paying perhaps a little too much attention to JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), who is happy to talk to reporters each day as he strolls through Senate corridors, KYRSTEN SINEMA, who generally avoids us, was quietly pushing this giant boulder up the hill. One GOP aide closely involved in the talks noted that Sinema's insistence on a bipartisan bill against the wishes of most of her Democratic colleagues helped convince them a deal was possible and, this person noted, allowed Republicans to have far more influence in the process than they had any right to expect. Did we mention they really like Sinema? Schumer: Early in the process the majority leader, at least publicly, seemed unenthusiastic about the deal. CHUCK SCHUMER, as is common during the fifth year of his Senate terms, is hugging the left these days, and the left hated the BIF process. It was the Sinema-Biden mindmeld that forced BIF to happen in the Senate, and Schumer eventually shepherded the bill through adroitly, using a (failed) cloture vote to push things along when talks dragged, and opening the spigot of amendments just enough to neuter GOP criticism that the process wasn't fair. Still, we don't see the G-22/G-10 process as likely to be a model for other significant legislation this Congress. Democrats noted that the most GOP-friendly portions of the Biden agenda are all in the infrastructure bill, and they are bristling over the delay tactics this weekend despite the supermajority in favor of the legislation. One Republican told us the G-10 staff is burned out and the committee chairs, which lost control of policymaking to the ad hoc group of senators, all want to "kill" the Portman- and Sinema-led group. The senior GOP aide added, "Getting this done in the current political climate has been extraordinarily difficult. It took four months to get to this point. This deal nearly died a hundred times along the way, and partisan forces sought to undermine it." The White House: Would the White House have pursued this course absent Sinema's (and Manchin's) insistence on a bipartisan deal as a buffer between the party-line votes on the American Rescue Plan and the upcoming budget? Doubtful. But the West Wing's view is that it was a victory for Biden-style prioritization and discipline. "We set a strategy — two bills — in April and stuck with it," said a senior White House official. "We ignored the noise and the doubts and stuck with our plan." Added another top Biden adviser: "People continue to underestimate the president and his ability to get things done. This is the most popular initiative Congress can move on, even according to the DCCC polling." On the other hand: The bill still has a long road through the House to get to President JOE BIDEN's desk. The press: One of the most important lessons for the press in covering such a long and complicated negotiation is to refrain from viewing daily comments from the key players as determinative of the outcome. Most public statements are negotiating ploys meant to influence the final outcome rather than torpedoes designed to destroy the deal (at least the ones from good-faith actors who want to pass something). This is a good reminder as we move on to covering the much more sweeping and more complicated reconciliation bill. Sinema and BERNIE SANDERS and JOSH GOTTHEIMER and ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ are all already using their considerable leverage to stake out what might look like irreconcilable differences. But don't confuse attempts to shape legislation, which the White House and Democratic leaders will have to resolve, for a bill's demise — especially when the president and his party's future depend on it passing. Speaking of which … HOUSE DEMS' UPHILL CLIMB: We've seen several memos floating around this month from political operatives analyzing the prospects for Dems to keep control of the House after the 2022 midterms. A top progressive strategist circulated an analysis Sunday night that caught our attention. His state-by-state study of where things will stand after redistricting, which overall will benefit Republicans, laid out the math for Democrats by highlighting a few simple numbers: 195: the projected floor for House Democrats after the midterms. 232: the projected ceiling for House Democrats after the midterms. 37: the number of swing seats in 2022. 2/3: the percentage of those swing seats that Dems will need to win in order to retain their House majority. Bonus statistic that tells you just how difficult this will be for the Dems: "Democrats who won 51 percent of the adjusted two-party vote in 2020, will likely have to win between one and two points more in 2022 to retain control." WHICH IS WHY SOME DEMS ARE OBSESSING ABOUT THIS: Historically the number of seats lost by a president's party in his first midterm election is closely correlated with the president's job approval. For months, Biden's approval has been extraordinarily steady. But a few pollsters have detected a recent dip that is making Dems nervous. Even such a small change — and this one seems tied to the reemergence of the coronavirus pandemic — could have big consequences in 2022 given the tight margins in Congress. CNN's Harry Enten: "Throughout the first six months of Biden's term, his approval rating always stood at between 51% and 55%. When it hit 51%, it quickly rebounded into the mid-50s. In fact, his approval rating averaged 53% during his first six months in office. "Over the last few weeks, though, we've seen a number of polls come out where Biden's at or tied for the lowest level of his presidency. … None of these polls or the average show a massive decline in Biden's approval rating. Together, though, they seem to be telling a story that Biden's approval rating has leaked a little bit. This wouldn't be a story if it weren't for the fact that Biden's approval rating has been so steady. The shift downward in the last few weeks is an illustration that events and time can move Biden's numbers." | 
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