| | | | | |  | | By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver | Presented by |  | | | Editor's Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | Beware of the short-term econ data — Already looks like April's bummer jobs number was a one-off fluke as ADP and other surveys suggest hiring did not actually fall off a cliff. The (sort of) end of the Covid-19 pandemic and various surges in federal stimulus spending will likely play havoc with the data for several weeks to come. And that's likely to be the case on Friday with a pile of fresh data on retail sales and industrial production that might not tell us … much at all. Via Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson: "The April retail sales and industrial production numbers … are wild cards, with the former especially hard to predict after the stimulus-fueled surge in spending in March. … "The April industrial production data also are hard to predict, thanks in part to the uncertain impact on the auto sector of the shortage of semiconductors … A big rebound is coming once semiconductor supplies are restored, but for now the hit is visible in the aggregate production data." Hope abides for infrastructure compromise — Talk to lobbyists around DC and executives in New York and the CW remains that the White House will get some of its infrastructure spending and some of its "Families Plan" stuff but not all of it. And certainly not all the tax hikes the administrations wants to offset the cost. The only thing people seem to agree on is that the corporate rate will rise. But perhaps nothing else will. And the West Wing (especially the occupant of Oval Office) is still holding out hope for a bipartisan deal, via our Laura Barrón-López and Burgess Everett: "Senate Republicans plan to present … Biden with a new, more detailed infrastructure offer in the coming days as they try and negotiate a landmark compromise with the White House. "'The President has asked us to come back and rework an offer, so that he could then react to that,' Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) told reporters after an Oval Office meeting with Biden … 'We're very encouraged.' "The meeting between Biden and six GOP senators came a day after the top four congressional leaders met with Biden. In that meeting, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy issued a red line on tax increases on capital gains and people making more than $400,000. But Republicans say Biden is undeterred from pursuing a deal if the GOP can propose a different solution that works." GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Happy weekend everyone! Enjoy some of the new post-vax freedoms if you can. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver. | | A message from Canadian National Railway Company: CN + KCS: Creating The North American railway for the 21st century.
CN is the better bid, better partner, better railway and best solution for KCS. Together, CN and KCS will create a true USMCA railroad that establishes a seamless single-line service to expand North American trade and power economic prosperity. For important information, visit www.connectedcontinent.com. | | | | | | Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 1.0% headline and 0.7% ex-autos … Import prices at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.6% … Industrial production at 9:15 a.m. expected to rise 1.0% with manufacturing up 0.3% … Univ. of Mich. consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. expected to rise to 90.2 from 88.3 … FORD'S BIG ELECTRIC TRUCK MOVE — Our Mike Grunwald in POLITICO Nightly: "Electric vehicles are the automotive vanguard of a greener world, and they've never generated more buzz. Tesla is now the world's most valuable car company, worth more than its top four competitors combined. Its CEO, Elon Musk, now the world's richest man, just hosted Saturday Night Live. … "But here's a less trendy factoid: In 2020, while Americans bought nearly 300,000 electric vehicles, they also bought nearly 800,000 Ford F-150 pickup trucks. The F-150 may be a gas-guzzling disaster for the climate, but it's been the nation's best-selling vehicle for 44 straight years. This is why Ford's decision to roll out an electric version of the F-150 is such a big deal, and why, on Tuesday, Biden will visit the Michigan factory that will manufacture it." MASKS OFF! (KINDA) — Our Erin Banco: "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said … fully vaccinated Americans can now gather with other individuals without masks indoors and outdoors, even if some in their group are unvaccinated. "The announcement marks the first time the Biden administration has said it is safe for vaccinated people to remove masks in any kind of group gathering — big or small, indoors or outdoors, no matter who is present — a major step toward moving the country back to normal by the July 4 holiday." COLONIAL PIPELINE BACK ONLINE — Our Ben Lefebvre: "Colonial Pipeline said … it has restarted much of its pipeline with deliveries expected in regions in the southeastern U.S. that had experienced gasoline shortages although one analyst said fuel supplies will remain tight for up to two weeks in states where pumps had run dry. "The company restarted operations on its pipeline Wednesday after a cyberattack forced it to shut down the crucial fuel line that delivers nearly half the gasoline to the East Coast. … Stretches of the pipeline running between Houston and Selma, S.C., and Baltimore and its terminus in Linden, N.J., are already operating, the company said." GOVERNMENT WATCHDOG SAYS FUDGE VIOLATED HATCH ACT — Our Daniel Lippman: "The Office of Special Counsel, an independent federal investigative agency, has concluded that Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge violated the Hatch Act earlier this year when she opined on the 2022 Ohio Senate election, according to a letter obtained by POLITICO." | | | |   | | | | | | STOCKS CLIMB AFTER THREE DAYS OF LOSSES — AP's Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: "Wall Street followed up a three-day losing streak with a broad stock market rally Thursday powered by Big Tech companies and banks. The S&P 500 notched a 1.2 percent gain, clawing back almost half of its loss from a day earlier, when it had its biggest one-day drop since February. "Even so, the benchmark index is on track for a 2.8 percent weekly decline, which would be its largest since January. The other major indexes were also on pace for sharp weekly declines, despite recouping some of their losses." WALL STREET CAN'T AGREE IF INFLATION IS GOOD OR BAD FOR STOCKS — Bloomberg's Brandon Kochkodin and Vildana Hajric: "It seems like a pretty basic question: what's the impact of inflation on stock-market returns? "The answer, however, depends on whom you ask and what historical data you think is germane. As economists grapple with whether the U.S. is in store for a prolonged bout of inflation or a mere blip on the chart, equity analysts have turned their attention to answering just what it would mean for the stock market if inflation were to take hold." | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel. | | | | | | | | AS UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS FALL, GOP PUSHES TO CURTAIL MORE BENEFITS — NYT's Patricia Cohen: "With new claims for unemployment benefits inching down, a growing number of Republican governors around the country have announced they are withdrawing from an array of federal pandemic-related jobless benefits. "About 487,000 workers filed first-time claims for state benefits last week, the Labor Department said on Thursday, a decrease from 514,000 the week before. In addition, about 104,000 new claims were filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program covering freelancers, part-timers and others who do not routinely qualify for state benefits. Those figures are not seasonally adjusted." CHOPPY JOBS RECOVERY COULD MEAN BUMPY ECONOMIC REBOUND — AP's Damian J. Troise: "April's weak jobs report is a sign that while the U.S. economy continues its post-pandemic recovery, the road ahead will be bumpy. … The shortfall raises concerns about how quickly the U.S. economy can return to normal. "Consumer spending, which has been steadily recovering and accounts for 70 percent of economic activity, can only push the economy so far. Fuller employment, and more people getting paid, will be needed to sustain an economic rebound." PROGRESSIVES SPLIT ON POWELL'S RENOMINATION TO FED CHAIR — Bloomberg's Craig Torres: "Progressives are starting to divide on whether Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell should be renominated by President Joe Biden for a second term. Seven different climate-activist groups, including the Sierra Club, on Thursday raised questions about Powell's renomination, demanding a stronger climate leader at the head of the central bank." LIBOR REPLACEMENT RACE HEATS UP — WSJ's Julia-Ambra Verlaine: "New contenders are emerging in the race to get rid of the London interbank offered rate by year-end. Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. traded the first complex derivative using a Bloomberg index crafted to replace Libor, exchanging $250 million worth of an interest-rate swap earlier this month. The Bloomberg Short Term Bank Yield Index competes with the alternative preferred by regulators including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York." FED'S WALLER: INFLATION JUMP LIKELY TEMPORARY — WSJ's Paul Kiernan: "The U.S. economy is 'going gangbusters,' but the Federal Reserve needs to see several more months of data on jobs and inflation before determining when to begin scaling back its easy-money policies, a central banker said. "Over the past week, official data have shown April job creation falling far short of economists' forecasts, evidence of a shortage of available workers, and consumer prices rising much faster than expected, Fed governor Christopher Waller said Thursday. But he called for central bankers to remain patient." BANKS LOOK TO ISSUE CREDIT CARDS TO PEOPLE WITH NO CREDIT SCORES — WSJ's Peter Rudegeair and AnnaMaria Andriotis: "Some of the largest U.S. banks plan to start sharing data on customers' deposit accounts as part of a government-backed initiative to extend credit to people who have traditionally lacked opportunities to borrow." | | A message from Canadian National Railway Company: CN+KCS: Safer. Faster. Cleaner. Stronger.
Creating The North American railway for the 21st century.
Safer. CN brings an uncompromising commitment to safety – both in culture and in ongoing investments in advanced technology.
Faster. A combination will provide more end-to-end single-owner, single-operator services from Mexico to Detroit than any other Class 1 railroad with more network access and benefits for customers, ports and terminal owners.
Cleaner. New competitive routes will be created through a combination of CN and KCS, accelerating the shift from truck to rail while driving down greenhouse gas emissions, fuel consumption and congestion.
Stronger. CN and KCS will create a true USMCA railroad that establishes a seamless single-line service to expand North American trade and power economic prosperity.
For important information, visit www.connectedcontinent.com. | | | | | | NEW ADS TARGET BIDEN PLAN — Per release: "Americans for Prosperity (AFP) … launched a full-scale national grassroots mobilization campaign to drive opposition to … Biden's $4 trillion 'infrastructure' proposal … The seven-figure campaign … will connect Americans with the harms of the proposal while offering positive alternatives" TRANSITIONS — Sabrina Fang is now vice president of communications and marketing at the National Venture Capital Association. She was most recently senior director of media relations at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO WEST WING PLAYBOOK: Add West Wing Playbook to keep up with the power players, latest policy developments and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing and across the highest levels of the Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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