Monday, February 1, 2021

Digital tax: Feeling pretty good — Too early to tell in the U.S. — Covid relief coming soon

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Tax examines the latest news in tax politics and policy.
Feb 01, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Bernie Becker

Editor's Note: Weekly Tax is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Tax policy newsletter, Morning Tax. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

THEY'RE FEELING IT: It's pretty striking — top finance officials in Europe are sounding extremely confident about getting a digital tax deal done this year, at least publicly.

Here's just one example: "It is highly likely that we will get the success we are working for so hard," Finance Minister Olaf Scholz of Germany told CNBC last week, as the latest round of talks being held through the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development were wrapping up.

Scholz added that the Biden administration has let it be known that they "understand the need for an agreement in this field and that they will work on solutions together with all of us."

The German finance minister might have been leaning in a little extra, but his comments are pretty similar to what Scholz's colleagues in the U.K., France and elsewhere have been saying.

But is that confidence warranted? American tax professionals closely watching the situation have their doubts, especially with June 30 as a self-imposed deadline for getting a deal.

"There are still very real challenges to reaching consensus on the portion related to taxation of digital companies, and I don't see why those got any easier, particularly given that it will take time for Treasury even to have a negotiating team in place and the clock is ticking," said one of those tax pros.

MORE ON THAT IN A BIT, but February already, huh? No one's showed you the pandas frolicking in the snow video yet, have they? ( Of course they have.)

Yeah, but how does their Sunday one look? Today marks 91 years since The Times (of London, that is) published its first crossword puzzle — a good dozen years before The New York Times followed suit.

Help us put all the pieces together. Send your tips and feedback.

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SO WHAT'S GOING ON HERE? As Morning Tax has noted before, it's still pretty early in the honeymoon period for the Biden administration and other world governments, which are hoping for more multilateral engagement following four years of former President Donald Trump.

Along the same lines, it's quite possible that Europeans are engaging in some flattery to get the Biden administration to buy in even further to the OECD process. But those tax professionals monitoring matters from here in the States suggest that those European officials are losing sight of the bipartisan interest here — dating back to at least the Obama administration — in protecting the U.S. tax base from outside tax collectors.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen certainly has made positive statements about the OECD talks, but there is also the slight problem of getting Congress to approve any deal.

"Countries with parliamentary systems don't appreciate the challenges of getting this stuff through Congress, and are taking Yellen's positive statements about the work (specifically, the minimum tax proposal that is part of the work) to mean much more than they do," said that same tax professional.

Still, it's not clear there is much downside for European officials if the OECD talks fall short, even after they sounded so confident. (After all, lots of governments have already said what they would do should that happen — enforce unilateral digital taxes, perhaps sparking further retaliation from the U.S. — even if that's an outcome most everyone says they want to avoid.)

THE WEEK AHEAD: Congressional Democrats are expected to get the ball rolling this week to potentially go it alone on further coronavirus relief, by passing budget resolutions that would allow them to use the reconciliation process that requires only a simple majority in the Senate.

A group of 10 Senate Republicans led by Sen. Susan Collins of Maine made one final plea to try and convince Democrats off that path over the weekend, as our Burgess Everett reported — by requesting a meeting with President Joe Biden and floating a plan about a third the size of the $1.9 trillion currently being sought by the White House.

The Republicans got that meeting, but it doesn't seem like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is all that interested in what the GOP senators are offering. " They should negotiate with us, not make a take-it-or-leave-it offer," Schumer told the New York Daily News, specifically noting that the Republicans' framework didn't include more funding for states and localities.

So now what? Biden and his team repeatedly have said how quickly they want to move on further Covid-19 assistance, but they wouldn't appear to lose too much by hearing out the Republicans this week — especially if budgets are being passed on a parallel track on the Hill.

And it's another reminder that a lot of the ideas related to taxes and revenues being thrown around for further pandemic relief aren't the kind of low-hanging fruit with potentially wide amounts of bipartisan support.

There is the enhanced aid to state and local governments, as Schumer noted, but also the proposals to expand the Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit.

For instance, Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, pooh-poohed the potential larger child credit recently — suggesting to reporters that Democrats should work on extending the CTC expansions in the 2017 GOP tax law, H.R. 1 (117). (Brady also maintained that the IRS would have real problems administering monthly credit payments, one of the ideas being floated by Democrats.)

Around the World

BUCKLE UP: Eswatini, the African country formerly known as Swaziland, is seeking to overhaul its tax code , in no small part because vast amounts of off-the-books economic activity eat into the country's gross domestic product by about two-fifths, Bloomberg reports. That's increased the government's interest in consumption taxes, according to Finance Minister Neal Rijkenberg. (Eswatini might start putting less weight into companies' annual financial statements when computing their tax bills, too.) On the income tax side, the government is considering hiking the top income tax rate from 33 percent to 36 percent, while also raising the amount at which people start paying taxes to help battle income inequality. Eswatini already has a corporate tax cut in the works — from 27.5 percent, all the way down to 12.5 percent, to help expand investment in the country. That lower rate was supposed to be phased in over a four-year span, but Eswatini might have to make that even longer because of the damage the coronavirus did to the country's revenue collections.

Around the Nation

BUCKLE UP: Taxes are set to play a big role in Nevada's legislative session that starts today, The Associated Press reports — much like in lots of other states. Democrats own narrow majorities in both chambers of the Nevada legislature, which means they can't raise taxes on their own — that requires two-thirds supermajorities in both the House and Senate. Still, Democrats say they'll consider proposals to raise taxes to stave off spending cuts, even if there are concerns that would hurt an economy still feeling the effects of the coronavirus. Among the ideas on the table this session: Local government advocates want to change the property tax cap to allow cities and counties to charge more; lawmakers from the state's urban core want higher mining taxes (rural Republicans not so much); and the idea of raising the gambling tax to almost 10 percent to help public schools has antagonized the hospitality industry.

 

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Quick Links

There's always an angle — NYT: "So You Just Made a Lot of Money on GameStop. There's One Catch: Taxes."

Probably no surprise, but: The Wall Street Journal editorial page sides with New Hampshire in its work from home tax dispute with Massachusetts.

New York judge tells tax lawyers that worked with the Trump Organization to hand over more documents to the state attorney general.

Did You Know?

King Mswati III announced in 2018 that Swaziland was changing its name to Eswatini, in part because people confused the country with Switzerland.

 

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