| Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/JPY on February 1 2021-02-01 EUR/USD Analysis: An upward trend is forming on the chart of the European currency. The last section of the main course has been reporting since November 4 last year. In its structure, the middle part (B) is formed. The lines drawn along the extremes of the graph show a horizontal pennant. Forecast: During the current day, the price rise is expected to end. At the end of the day, a reversal is expected to form and the price will start moving down. A breakthrough of the lower limit of the calculated support zone is unlikely today. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.2170/1.2200 Support: - 1.2090/1.2060 Recommendations: Transactions on the euro market today are possible only within the framework of individual trading sessions. When buying, you should take into account the limited potential of the upcoming upswing. Sales of the instrument with a reduced lot are more promising. 
AUD/USD Analysis: The Australian dollar chart is dominated by an upward trend. Its last section dates back to September 24 last year. The price has reached the lower limit of a powerful potential reversal zone. It has been forming an interim correction that has not been completed yet for the past month. Forecast: Today, in the first half of the day, the pressure is expected on the resistance zone, with an attempt to break through its upper border. Next, you should wait for a change in the exchange rate and a decline to the calculated support. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 0.7680/0.7650 Support: - 0.7610/0.7580 Recommendations: Trading on the pair's market today is only possible within the intraday. Until the entire current correction is completed, purchases are risky. The main attention is recommended to be paid to the search for selling signals of the instrument in the area of the resistance zone. 
GBP/JPY Analysis: Since March last year, an upward zigzag has been developing on the chart of the cross of the British pound against the Japanese yen. The price has reached the lower limit of the strong zone of a potential reversal of a large TF. The wave structure does not show completeness. Forecast: Today, the general upward mood of the movement of this currency pair is expected. In the European session, it is possible to stop in the flat, up to a short-term decline to the support zone. The active phase of the rate growth is more likely by the end of the day. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 144.70/145.00 Support: - 143.50/143.20 Recommendations: There are no conditions for selling the pair today. It is recommended to track the signals for buying the instrument at the end of counter price movements. 
Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted line shows the expected movements. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time! Forex forecast 02/01/2021 on USD/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD and Silver from Sebastian Seliga 2021-02-01 Let's take a look at the technical picture of USD/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD and Silver on a daily time frame chart. Wave analysis of EUR/USD for February 1. Battle for COVID-19 vaccine in Europe 2021-02-01 
The wave structure of the upward trend still consists of five waves. Meanwhile, the trend, that has started to form after it, seems to be pretty clear. If the current wave structure is accurate, the quotes will probably fall to the targets set in the area of 1.1900 and 1.1800. However, the formation of the upward trend may well continue or a new trend may begin. 
The wave structure in the shorter time frame also indicates that the upward trend is over. Thus, I still believe that the formation of the downward trend has already started. In fact, two of its waves have already been completed. However, Wave 3 cannot be identified until the price tries to break through the low of Wave 1. Most likely, only three waves of the downward trend will be formed. After that, the upward trend will resume. In fact, the wave structure of the upward trend will become even more complex. The greenback is still slowly rising against the euro. Notably, the US dollar is flat against the pound sterling. Nevertheless, my review is about EUR/USD. This currency pair continues moving according to the current wave structure. One of many reasons for the greenback's rally is the growing epidemiological crisis and problems with vaccine distribution in the European Union. Thus, the EU authorities announced their decision to control exports of vaccines against COVID-19 from the euro area. That is, the European vaccine producers will be required to provide the countries within the Union with the vaccine first. Only then they will be able to sell it to others. In fact, the European Union immediately came under fire of criticism from the countries that have already signed the contract for vaccine delivery with European pharmacological companies. Thus, the EU offered AstraZeneca to share the vaccine meant for the UK. London instantly condemned Brussels' actions. Overall, such a situation is beneficial for the greenback as demand for it usually rises when there is escalation of tensions in the world. Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that "vaccine nationalism" would only slow the effort to quash the pandemic and called for vaccines to be used fairly and effectively. Nevertheless, there is nothing surprising in the fact that every country defends its own interest. Therefore, there is nothing wrong that the European Union is striving to provide its citizens with the vaccine first. On top of that, other countries, including emerging markets, are also displeased with how the vaccine is distributed. It turns out that the vaccine against COVID-19 is one of the most scarce products in the world. Today, the eurozone released its manufacturing business activity report. The PMI rose by 0.1 point to 54.8. As we can see, markets are interested in coronavirus news more. Overall conclusion and trading recommendations: The upward trend on EUR/USD has supposedly come to an end. Thus, I recommend that one should sell the instrument with the targets set in the area of 1.2000 and 1.1900 with each new "down" signal from the MACD indicator and taking into account the formation of Wave 3. Also, I recommend that one should wait for a breakout at the low of the Wave 1 before entering short. GBP/USD: trading plan for American session on February 1 (overview of morning trade). GBP sellers again defend high of 1.3746 that makes excellent entry point for short positions 2021-02-01 What is needed to open long positions on GBP/USD In my morning review, I told you about selling the pair at around resistance of 1.3746 on condition that the price makes a fake breakout there. Now let's look at a 5-minute chart and discuss what has happened. Decent data on the UK manufacturing PMI released today gave the buyers the greenlight to overcome resistance of 1.3746, but their efforts were not successful. Later, after a bounce to under that level (that was actually a fake breakout), the bulls tried again to push the price up to this level. Bad luck again. Such failed bulls' efforts inspired GBP sellers. At moment of writing this article, the price climbed 40 pips from the market entry point.  Despite the volatile market in the first half of the trading day, nothing has changed from the technical viewpoint. The bulls should defend support of 1.3693 which also serves as the middle line of the sideways channel where GBP got stuck for the whole last trading week. Data on the US economy and ISM Manufacturing PMI are likely to trigger higher volatility during the New York trade that will enable the pair to make a fake breakout at near 1.3693. Only this move will bring GBP buyers back to the market and encourage a second bounce to resistance of 1.3746 that has not been surpassed today. Fixation at that area and its test downwards is expected to trigger GBP/USD growth to 1.3794 and 1.3846 where I recommend profit taking. Under the scenario of GBP decline and muted buyers' activity at around support of 1.3693 in the second half of the day, it would be better not to rush buying the pair. The best option is to wait until GBP/USD falls to a deeper low of 1.3637, which acts as the lower border of the sideway channel, and open long positions from there, bearing in mind an upward intraday correction of 20-25 pips. What is needed to open short positions on GBP/USD During the New York trade, the bears will endeavor to break the level of 1.3693. It would be reasonable to open short positions from there like it was with the entry point on Friday. I told you about this in detail in the morning review. A test of this level upwards creates a good market entry point, predicting a retreat to a low of 1.3637 which serves as the lower border of the sideways channel. A breach of this area will trigger some stop loss orders set by the buyers and encourage a further strong drop towards support of 1.3584 and 1.3531 where I recommend profit taking. Under scenario of GBP/USD growth in the second half of the day after the ISM manufacturing PMI, you should be very cautious about short positions. Only a fake breakout at near resistance of 1.3746 (like it was in the morning today) will create a signal for opening short positions. You are recommended to sell GBP/USD immediately at a bounce from a high of 1.3794, bearing in mind a minor 25-30 pips correction intraday.  Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) from January 19 logged a decrease both of long and short positions that indicates cautious sentiment on this trading instrument. Long non-commercial positions declined from 47,935 to 45,904. On the other hand, short non-commercial positions dropped from 34,993 from 32,199. Obviously, short positions decreased to a greater extent than long ones. As a result, the net non-commercial positions increased to 13,705 against 12,942 a week ago. Traders prefer to take the wait-and-see stance while the pair is trading at about one-year highs. It proves that the bulls find it hard to push the price to higher highs. Demand for GBP remains robust. Once the UK lifts restrictions under the third lockdown which was imposed to combat a mutant COVID-19 strain, GBP/USD will accelerate its advance. Meanwhile, GBP finds support from the cautious approach to monetary policy of the Bank of England. Besides, investors have another reason for optimism. Recently, the UK finance ministry proposed a new program of the labor market support. With such tailwinds, traders are betting in the medium-term strength of the pound sterling.  Signals of technical indicators Moving averages The pair is trading at about 30- and 50-period moving averages. It indicates that GBP/USD is trading in a range-bound market for the short term. Remark. The author is analyzing a period and prices of moving averages on the 1-hour chart. So, it differs from the common definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the indicator's upper border at near 1.3746 will lead to a new advance of GBP/USD. Alternatively, a breakout of the lower border at near 1.3693 will step up pressure on GBP/USD. Definitions of technical indicators - Moving average recognizes an ongoing trend through leveling out volatility and market noise. A 50-period moving average is plotted yellow on the chart.
- Moving average identifies an ongoing trend through leveling out volatility and market noise. A 30-period moving average is displayed as the green line.
- MACD indicator represents a relationship between two moving averages that is a ratio of Moving Average Convergence/Divergence. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. A 9-day EMA of the MACD called the "signal line".
- Bollinger Bands is a momentum indicator. The upper and lower bands are typically 2 standard deviations +/- from a 20-day simple moving average.
- Non-commercial traders - speculators such as retail traders, hedge funds and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Non-commercial long positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- The overall non-commercial net position balance is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Analysis of GBP/USD on February 1, 2021. Bank of England meeting 2021-02-01 
The section of the trend, which originates on September 23, took a five-wave complete form. But the internal wave structure of the proposed 5-5 still does not look entirely convincing and may require additions and adjustments. Nevertheless, the upward trend has been nearing its end for a long time. The demand for the sterling, however, remains quite high, and this factor can lead to a further complication of the upward trend. 
On the younger chart, the wave counting looks rather complicated. This is because in recent weeks the instrument has been trading in a very narrow range, without canceling the construction of the upward trend section. At the moment, the instrument quotes may continue to rise within the wave 3-5-5, although this wave is taking on a rather extended form. The internal wave counting of wave 5-5 does not look entirely convincing. In recent weeks, the instrument has been trading between 100.0% and 127.2% Fibonacci levels. While the UK and EU are fighting over the vaccine, the markets are focused on the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England. Let me remind you that the key intrigue of this event will be the key rate cut. To be more precise, the Bank of England is unlikely to lower it in February, but it is also unlikely to be able to avoid comments on this issue. Markets have long been waiting for the British Central Bank to continue to ease monetary policy, but Governor Andrew Bailey still doubts the appropriateness of this step. Thus, the markets will be waiting this Thursday for information on how the Bank of England is at least close to the decision to introduce negative rates. If Bailey or one of the members of the monetary committee announces that such a decision may be made shortly, or during the vote, several committee members support the decision to lower the rate, it could finally stop the rise of the pound. Thus, special attention should be paid to rate voting and press conferences after the results are announced. Meanwhile, the PMI in the UK manufacturing sector turned out pleasing as the European one. The index rose from 52.9 to 54.1. However, at the beginning of the new trading week, the pound is trading extremely calmly and does not react to economic reports. Today, two indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector will also be released in America. Strong readings may support demand for the US dollar. However, given that all four indices are well above the 50.0 mark, it is unlikely that the values will surprise the markets to begin trading based on these reports. The pound sterling is now generally frozen around the 1.3750 mark, which greatly complicates the current wave counting, but does not cancel the building of the upward trend. General conclusions and recommendations: The Pound-Dollar pair continues to build the upward trend. Thus, at present, I recommend buying the instrument in case of a successful attempt to break the 1.3750 mark with targets located near the 40th figure, within the expected 3-5-5 waves of the upward trend. So far, there are no clear signals about the end of the upward trend. EUR/USD: plan for the US session on February 1 (analysis of morning trades). Good data on manufacturing activity did not lead to a rise in the euro. The bears are focused on the annual minimum of 1.2050 2021-02-01 To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to: In the first half of the day, I focused on the data on the manufacturing activity of the eurozone countries and expected the euro to continue to recover with good reports. However, despite the excellent data, the market behaved quite differently. On the 5-minute chart, I marked the entry point to short positions. It can be seen how the bears achieve a breakdown of the level of 1.2099 and consolidate below. An unsuccessful return to this range led to the formation of a signal to open short positions in the continuation of the downward trend. At the time of writing, the pair went down from the entry point of about 30 points, which allows you to drag the stop loss to no loss. 
Given the market reaction to the data on the eurozone, it is difficult to imagine how the market will behave after similar data on the US economy. Following the market logic, good data on the US, on the contrary, will lead to the strengthening of the euro. Therefore, the bulls will focus on the level of 1.2099 during the American session. A return and consolidation above this range with a test of it from top to bottom forms an additional signal for entering the market in the expectation of recovery of EUR/USD to the morning resistance of 1.2136, where I recommend taking the profits. In the event of a further fall in the euro, the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2060 will lead to the formation of a good entry point. Otherwise, I recommend postponing long positions until the test of the minimum of 1.2026, from which you can open long positions immediately for a rebound in the expectation of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to: Sellers have fully managed to fulfill the task set for them, and now, during the American session, they will seek to update the support of 1.2060. While trading is conducted below this range, we can count on a further fall of the pair with the release of new annual lows in the area of 1.2026, where I recommend taking the profits. It should be remembered that in the second half of the day we have data on the US economy, in particular on the activity of the ISM manufacturing index, which may lead to a larger spike in volatility. In the case of recovery of EUR/USD back to the resistance area of 1.2099, the formation of a false breakout after the US reports will form a good entry point into short positions. In the scenario of a lack of sellers' activity at this level, it is best to postpone sales for a rebound until the resistance update of 1.2136, in the expectation of a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day. There are also moving averages that play on the side of euro sellers. 
Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for January 19 recorded a sharp increase in long positions and a slight increase in short ones. Despite all the incoming fundamental data and the continuation of several quarantine restrictions until February this year in many European countries, buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bullish trend. Especially the demand appears at each significant downward correction from the highs of this year, which allows new major players to enter the market. Vaccination disruptions in Europe are preventing buyers of risky assets from building up their positions more actively, as are weak eurozone fundamentals. However, the prospect of lifting the quarantine will keep the market positive. The risk of extending the quarantine measures in February of this year is still a deterrent to the growth of the euro. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions increased from the level of 228,757 to the level of 236,533, while short non-profit positions increased only from the level of 72,867 to the level of 73,067. Due to the sharp increase in long positions, the total non-commercial net position rose to 163,466 from 155,890 a week earlier. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a fall in the euro in the short term. Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands In the case of growth of the pair, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2155 will act as a resistance. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
EUR/USD analysis for February 01 2021 - First downside target at the price of 1.2090 reached, potential for second target at 1.2060 2021-02-01 UK PM Johnson: There is still a risk of the virus getting out of control again Comments by UK prime minister, Boris Johnson - Infections are still at a high level
- But there are some signs of flattening in infection rates
- Confident that there is enough supply for second vaccine shot within 12 weeks
- Confident that all vaccines provide high protection against all variants
Johnson is out to manage expectations as UK virus cases start to ease and the vaccine rollout so far is progressing rather well. That is a good sign for the UK economy on hopes that it could really bounce back more strongly in late Q2 perhaps. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that EUR reached my first downside target from Friday at the price of 1,2093 but that is heading towards second downside target at 1,2060 and 1,2000. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2095 Support level: 1,2060
Author's today's articles: Vyacheslav Ognev  Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Alexander Dneprovskiy  Graduated from Kiev State University of Economics. On Forex market since 2007. Started his work at Forex as a trader. Since 2008 is working as a currency analyst. Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"
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