| Technical analysis and outlook for USD/JPY for February 2, 2021 2021-02-02 Hello, dear traders! Last Friday was the last trading day of January. Today, we are going to start reviewing one of the most popular currency pairs among traders, USD/JPY, in the largest time frame. Weekly chart 
Thus, a bullish engulfing pattern occurred on the monthly chart at the end of January 2021. Its body completely overlapped the body of the previous bearish candlestick. Based on the candlestick analysis, the given pattern is considered to be a reversal one, as well as a stronger one. Consequently, the bullish trend on USD/JPY is likely to extend during trading in February. According to the monthly chart, the pair has already started its rally. At the moment, the currency pair is moving in the bullish trend near an important technical and psychological level of 105.00. Obviously, the key task for bulls will be to close much higher than the indicated level at the end of February. Meanwhile, bears have an even more challenging task to do. In order to resume the downward trend, they need to break the strong support at 102.60 and close below such a steady technical level at the end of February. Based on the largest time frame, the USD/JPY pair is likely to extend its rally. Monthly chart 
The USD/JPY consolidated at the end of last week as well as at the end of the previous month. As we can see, two previous doji candlesticks indicate that bears lost their strength in the market. Besides, the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku Cloud indicator is providing considerable support for the price. Another important moment is that the pair has broken through the strong technical level of 104.40. In fact, it is also a steady resistance level that has not allowed the price to go higher for a long time. Currently, the pair is trying to break through the important psychological level of 105.00. It will become clear whether the price can break through it after the release of the US labor market statistics on Friday. Let me remind you that USD/JPY is perhaps the most sensitive currency pair to such an important report as Non Farm Payrolls. If bulls break through the 105.00 level, their next target will be seen in the price range of 106.00-106.11. Apart from that, the 50-day moving average is located there. Also, there is the resistance level slightly above it. From my point of view, one should consider buying the USD/JPY pair at the moment. The best time to enter long is after short-term downward pullbacks and when the price rate gets more favourable. In addition, you should consider opening long positions on USD/JPY after it falls to the 104.70-104.40 price range where there is also a strong technical level and bears' broken resistance level. Earlier and riskier buy deals will be possible near 104.85. If the 105.00 mark is broken in shorter time frames and the price consolidates above it, one should try to sell the instrument during a pullback to 105.00. Nevertheless, I assume the safest and most profitable way to buy USD/JPY is from lower levels. If there are any reversal patterns or Japanese candlesticks below 105.00 in the daily or shorter time frames, one can sell the pair with the targets set in the area of 104.70-104.40. Have a nice trading day! Speed vaccination will allow growing global demand for black gold and Brent quotes 2021-02-02 After a two-week consolidation in the range of $54.5-56.5 per barrel, Brent surged thanks to the speed of vaccine deployment, a decrease in the number of people infected and killed by COVID-19, and the belief that the pandemic will still be won. OPEC data contributed to the growth of quotes of the North Sea variety, indicating that the cartel fulfilled its obligations to cut production by 103% in December, and the non-member countries participating in the agreement by 93%. This is how the markets work: after a violent rally, a period of consolidation follows. They are like travelers - they cannot walk in one direction for an infinitely long time, they need a halt. Concerns about vaccine problems in Europe and new strains of COVID-19 have become the main weapon of the bears of the oil market. These factors raised doubts about the rapid recovery in global demand for black gold, which Brent and WTI served faithfully in the second half of 2020. Nevertheless, the fact that more than 25 million Americans received their vaccine doses and Joe Biden intends to bring this number to 100 million in the first 100 days of his term in office made fears subside. Most likely, the plan of the 46th President of the United States will be implemented faster, and the EU will follow the example of Britain and the United States and speed up the vaccination campaign. According to UBS, since a critical part of the world's population will be vaccinated, global oil demand will continue to grow. At the same time, the intention of OPEC + to stabilize the market through production cuts will help reduce global reserves of black gold and increase Brent to $63 per barrel in the second half of 2021 and $65 per barrel in the first quarter of 2022. The oil market conjuncture confirms the bank's bullish views. The backwardation for the North Sea grade indicates that significant reserves of black gold accumulated in the past year are decreasing and, most likely, will continue to do so. Oil market conditions 
According to Goldman Sachs, the change in the balance in the oil market continues to exceed the consensus forecast. The bank raised its estimate of the deficit from 500,000 b/d to 900,000 b/d in the first half of 2021. In such a situation, much will depend on OPEC +. In January, production by the cartel and its allies rose for the 7th month in a row, this time to 25.75 million b/d. Nevertheless, the fact that the final result was less than expected by Bloomberg experts supported the prices. So far, Saudi Arabia is taking the lion's share of the responsibility, which announced a unilateral cut in production in February and March by 1 million b/d, but who knows how the OPEC + meeting in March will end. Technically, on the Brent daily chart, the Splash and Shelf pattern is being implemented. The breakout of the upper border of the consolidation range of $54.5-56.5 per barrel ("shelves") activated this pattern. In the event of a retest of the current support at $56.5, which previously served as resistance, traders will have the opportunity to form or build up longs. In general, the buyback strategy remains relevant. The target of the upward movement is the $64 mark or 261.8% for AB=CD. Brent daily chart 
Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on February 2, 2021 2021-02-02 The main euro/dollar currency pair started trading in the new week with a decline, which turned out to be quite impressive. The strengthening of the US dollar, according to some experts, was influenced by the better economic situation in the United States, as well as the more successful mass vaccination of the country's citizens against the COVID-19 pandemic than in Europe. As for the personal opinion of the author of this article, these are very far-fetched pretexts to explain the strengthening of the US currency. Relative to COVID-19, the United States remains the leader in the number of deaths from the coronavirus epidemic. As for the world's largest economy, which is still the American one, its recovery from the negative effects of COVID-19 is proceeding at a moderate pace. This, in particular, in his last speech, was told by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) Jerome Powell. At the same time, the head of the Federal Reserve complained about the weaker-than-expected growth rates of inflation and employment. Carried away in yesterday's article by the results of the closing of January trading, I did not identify the main macroeconomic events of the current week. Let's take a look at the economic calendar together and see what interesting things are prepared in it for market participants. The main events of today will be the preliminary reports on the GDP of the eurozone for the fourth quarter of last year, which will be published at 11:00 London time. Then, during the US session, there will be speeches by members of the US Federal Open Market Committee Mester and Williams. Of course, the main macroeconomic reports will arrive on Friday, when the US labor market data for January will be published. I believe that these releases will draw a line under the results of weekly trading on EUR/USD. In the meantime, let's move on to the technical picture of the main currency pair of the Forex market. Daily 
As already noted at the beginning of the review, following the results of yesterday's trading, the EUR/USD pair showed a fairly significant decline. However, it is necessary to note one very important point, namely, that the support in the area of 1.2060-1.2050 once again showed its best side and did not let the quote go lower. Yesterday's lows were fixed at 1.2055, and the trading of the first day of February ended at the already well-known level of 1.2058. Thus, the euro bears again failed to push through strong support near 1.2050, and today, at the time of writing, the euro/dollar is growing at a moderate pace, and the pair has already risen to 1.2087, after which it retreated slightly and is trading near 1.2076. I believe that it will be extremely important for the euro bulls today to finish trading not only above the mark of 1.2100 but also with the exit from the daily cloud of the Ichimoku indicator, whose upper limit is at 1.2115. However, from the red line of the Tenkan and the 50 simple moving average, now, after their breakdown, we can expect strong resistance to the price, so the tasks of the players to increase look quite difficult. Most likely, a strong driver will be needed for the growth of the single European currency, which may turn out to be the already mentioned reports on the GDP of the eurozone. H4 
On the four-hour timeframe, the pair trades under all three moving averages used: 50 MA, 200 EMA, and 89 EMA. I believe that each of these moving averages can provide decent resistance to attempts to grow and turn the quote down. Since all three moving averages are located in the price zone 1.2130-1.2136, it is recommended to consider sales from here, which at this stage of trading seem to be the main trading idea. At the breakdown of support in the area of 1.2050, I would not sell, it is too risky. Even though there are no impenetrable lines or levels in the market, another rebound, or even a reversal, may occur from the support zone of 1.2060-1.2050. I believe that it is better to wait for the true breakdown of this area, and already on the rollback to it to open short positions on EUR/USD. This will be possible if there is no pullback to the area of 1.2130-1.2136. At the very end of writing the article, we will see that after a small rebound and a white candle, the pair turned down again, and apparently, once again will test the key support area near 1.2050 for a breakdown. We wait and react to everything that happens in time. Technical analysis EUR/USD for February 2, 2021 2021-02-02 
EUR/USD has finally formed a S/H/S top and broken below the uptrend since Mid-May 2020 indicating a correction towards the 1.1617 - 1.1717 target-area from where a new rally higher could be seen. As long as key-resistance at 1.2205 (the top of the right shoulder) is able to cap the upside, the pressure remains to the downside. A break back above the key-resistance at 1.2205 will re-ignite the uptrend from May 2020 towards the next major resistance at 1.2854. Remember the trend and patience are your friends Trading idea for EUR/USD 2021-02-02  EUR / USD closed with an absorption pattern yesterday, which suggests that buyers can hide their risks at 1.20500.  And because of this, short positions have a higher chance of bringing out profit, the strategy for which is presented below:  Since the quote has formed a three-wave pattern (ABC), where wave A is the bearish initiative observed yesterday, short positions may be set up from 1.21, the target of which is a 50% retracement. Risks should be limited to 1.21300, and then take profit as soon as the euro breaks through 1.20500. Of course, traders still need to carefully assess the situation before placing any position. Trading is very precarious, but profitable as long as the correct strategy is used. The plan above follows Price Action and Stop Hunting methods. Good luck! Trading idea for gold 2021-02-02  The formation of the pin bar pattern confirms the short scenario in gold.  In fact, because of it, traders can follow this bearish strategy below:  Since the quote has formed a three-wave pattern (ABC), where wave A is the downward movement observed yesterday and today, short positions may be opened from 1855-1860, the target of which is a 50% retracement. Risks should be limited to 1868, and then take profit as soon as the quote reaches 1840, 1830 and 1800. Of course, traders still need to carefully assess the situation before placing any position. Trading is very precarious, but profitable as long as the correct strategy is used. The plan above follows Price Action and Stop Hunting methods. Good luck! EUR/USD analysis for February 02, 2021 - Breakout of the HSS pattern and potentia lfor bigger drop towards 1.1800 2021-02-02 Eurozone Q4 advanced GDP -0.7% vs -0.9% q/q expected Prior (Q3) +12.5%; revised to +12.4% - Q4 GDP -5.1% vs -5.3% y/y expected
- Prior (Q3) -4.3%
The initial reading is a little better than estimates but this still shows that the euro area economy shrank in the final quarter of last year amid tighter virus restrictions. Similar conditions are playing out so far in Q1 and that sets up a likelihood of a double-dip recession to follow, although vaccine optimism is largely overshadowing that for now. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR, I found that sellers are in control and that there is the breakout of the larger head and shoulders pattern, whch is good sign for further short-term downside movement. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,982 Support levels: $1,969, $1,961 and $1,942 Analysis of Gold for February 02,.2021 - Broken mini upward channel and potential for the drop towards $1.831 2021-02-02 HSBC argues to look past the RBA surprise decision today The firm says that while it was a surprise that the RBA announced a QE extension today, it simply "mirrors similar commitments by other G-10 central banks, including the Fed, and should therefore not be a significant long-term driver of the currency". Adding that they still see AUD/USD advancing to 0.81 by the end of the year amid improving global growth prospects and higher commodity prices in general. While the RBA did surprise somewhat earlier today, it wasn't so much a major one as they are largely seen as bringing forward the decision to extend QE. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that sellers are in control and that there is the breakout of the upward mini Pitchfork channel, which is good sign for further downside continuation. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside targets at the price of $1,831 and $1,803 Key Levels: Resistance: $1,875 Support levels: $1,831 and $1,803
Author's today's articles: Ivan Aleksandrov  Ivan Aleksandrov Igor Kovalyov  Igor Kovalyov was born on September 24, 1985. Igor graduated from Krasnoyarsk State University with a degree in Philology and Journalism. He has a wide experience as a newspaper and information agency correspondent. He got interested in financial markets in 2001. He also graduated from Moscow State University of Economics, Statistics, and Informatics (MESI) with a degree in Global Economics and then served as an analyst in an investment company. He has been working at InstaForex since 2014. Torben Melsted  Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"
Subscription's options management Theme's:
Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets
Author's :
A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
Edit data of subscription settings
Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely,
Analysts Service | If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the
InstaForex Toll free numbers right now:
|  | InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. InstaForex Group members include regulated companies in Europe, Russia and British Virgin Islands. This letter may contain personal information for access to your InstaForex trading account, so for the purpose of safety it is recommended to delete this data from the history. If you have received this letter by mistake, please contact InstaForex Customer Relations Department. |
No comments:
Post a Comment