| AUD/USD: RBA's surprising "dovish" scenario 2021-02-02 During its first meeting this 2021, the Reserve Bank of Australia implemented one of the most "dovish" scenarios, that is, expanding the scope of the stimulus program. This scenario remained in the background before the February meeting – in the light of the recent macroeconomic data, experts discussed the likely result of the meeting from a different angle. The focus was on the dilemma: Will the RBA curtail the stimulus program in April or extend its duration? This means that the option of expanding QE was practically not discussed. This is the main scenario before the previous year ended, when the world was subject to panic moods in connection with the spread of the British, and later – the South African coronavirus strain. But the mood of investors has clearly improved in recent weeks, including regarding the RBA's next steps. Here, the regulator itself doubted the advisability of further easing monetary policy. Based on the minutes of the December meeting, the Central Bank "may be forced to expand the stimulus program if the pace of recovery in labor market indicators and inflation are uncertain and uneven". In my opinion, this served as a starting point in the context of general market expectations. These expectations have acquired a "hawkish" character after the release of great data on the growth of the Australian labor market and inflation indicators. 
However, the fact remains that the RBA was not satisfied with the achievements of the national economy and decided to buy an additional $ 100 billion of bonds. These purchases will begin in April, when the current incentive program ends. In view of this, it is necessary to discuss the regulator's primary complaints about the current situation. First, the Central Bank was concerned about the weak growth rate of wages. Now, we will pay special attention to this indicator. Along with the salaries of the regulator's members, inflation is also concerning. According to preliminary estimates, it will remain below the 2% target for the next few years. It is further concluded that the government will not begin to tighten monetary policy until at least 2024. Previously, the farthest time point in this context was the year 2023. In general, RBA's rhetoric was cautiously optimistic, despite the actual easing of monetary policy parameters. It is probably due to this that the Australian dollar withstood the blow: paired with the US currency, it declined to the base of the 76th figure, but did not leave its framework. In my opinion, this reaction was caused by the market's hopefulness. Apparently, the Central Bank's action today in terms of stimulus measures will be the last one. This assumption is consistent with the RBA's forecasts for the current and 2022 years. According to the Central Bank, the level of Australia's GDP will return to the 2019 level by the middle of this year. The dynamics of growing inflation and wages are expected to be positive, but gradual. The unemployment rate in 2021 is expected to be around 6%, while this indicator will return to the "pre-crisis" range of 5% -5.5% next year. The members of the regulator also noted the progress in the process of combating the coronavirus pandemic. As stated in the RBA's accompanying statement, further positive results in this area will increase consumer spending and investment, and subsequently lead to stronger economic growth relative to current forecasts. To simply put it, the Reserve Bank voiced quite optimistic rhetoric that suggests that today's "dovish" decision will be the last one, following the expansion of QE. However, Australian dollar's restrained reaction to the "dovish" results of the meeting suggests that it has a margin of safety: as it turned out, the AUD is not getting rid of fundamentally justified cases. In addition, it should be recalled that the AUD/USD pair is under the background pressure of the US currency, which strengthened throughout the market again. The US dollar index was testing the 91st mark at the end of the US session on Monday, although it did not stay at this peak afterwards. The market is nervous about the new package of assistance to the US economy: Republican senators insist on reducing the volume of the bill from $ 1.9 trillion to $ 600 billion. Thus, political experts believe that a serious fight in the Senate will unfold around this Biden initiative. It is noted that the leaders of the Democratic Party plan to apply the budget "reconciliation" procedure, which can allow the adoption of the law by a simple majority of votes. Currently, the seats in the upper house of Congress are divided equally between Republicans and Democrats. However, Biden's fellow party members have the advantage of the casting vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. Amid this political tension, the US dollar is in situational demand as a defensive tool. 
Nevertheless, AUD/USD buyers are on the defensive even despite the dollar's strengthening and RBA's "dovish" decisions. A fairly strong support level is located at the psychologically important level of 0.7600 (which coincides with the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily time frame). If traders keep the price above this target today, then it will be possible to consider long positions in the mid-term with the first target of 0.7710 (midline Bollinger Bands in the same timeframe). The main target is located higher, namely at the level of 0.7800. However, it is too early to talk about such peaks. It is necessary first for the dollar bulls to at least ease their strength, and in turn, the Australian dollar should get an impulse for its own massive growth. Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair on February 2, 2021 2021-02-02 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Tuesday, the market from the level of 1.2059 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to start moving up with the target of 1.2102 - the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). After testing this level, the price can continue to work upwards with a target of 1.2176 - the resistance level (blue bold line). 
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up
- Fibonacci levels - up
- Volumes - up
- Candlestick analysis - down
- Trend analysis - up
- Bollinger bands - down
- Weekly chart - down
General conclusion: Today, the price from the level of 1.2059 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to make an upward movement with the target of 1.2102 - the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). After testing this level, the price can continue to work upwards with a target of 1.2176 - the resistance level (blue bold line). Unlikely scenario: the price from the level of 1.2059 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to move up with the target of 1.2102 - the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). After testing this level, the market can continue to work downwards with a target of 1.1975 - the 50.0% retracement level (red dotted line). Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 2, 2021 2021-02-02 The value of the US dollar strengthened against its competitors yesterday. There was also an above average activity in the market, which made it possible for traders to gain profit. In terms of the economic calendar, the United Kingdom's lending market data was initially published. The volume of consumer lending was expected to drop from 5.73 billion pounds to 5.59 billion pounds, while net lending rose from 4.3 billion pounds to 4.6 billion pounds. In turn, the number of approved mortgage loans declined from 105.32 thousand to 103.38 thousand, against the forecast of 105.00. The statistical data was negatively received by the pound, which declined in the market against the US dollar. Europe's unemployment data was also released, where its level remained unchanged at 8.3%. The euro was already under pressure from sellers by the time these statistics were published. What happened on the trading chart? The EUR/USD pair showed a downward activity yesterday. As a result, the quote returned to the area of the pivot point 1.2050/1.2070, where market participants repeatedly reduced the volume of short positions (sell positions), which led to slow down and rebound. The GBP/USD pair showed a logical basis again in connection with the area of the conditional high of the medium-term trend of 1.3750, where there was initially a sharp stop in the upward movement. It was then followed by the price rebound along the direction of 1.3750 ---> 1.3656, as this has already been repeated in history for several times. 
Trading recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for February 2, 2021 Today, the economic calendar will publish Europe's first estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter, where the rate of economic decline may accelerate from -4.3% to -6.0%, which will negatively affect the euro. Unemployment data is also expected to be published in Europe. Its level is expected to remain unchanged, which is unlikely to affect the euro in any way. 9:30 Universal time - UK lending market 10:00 Universal time - EU GDP If we analyze the current trading chart of EUR/USD, it can be seen that the quote is following the area of 1.2050/1.2070, showing an active downward interest. If the price holds below the level of 1.2050, the support level will be broken. After that, sellers will actively enter the market, who will easily lower the euro rate towards the level of 1.2000. 
As for the current trading chart of the GBP/USD, we can see that the quote still adheres to the sideways movement at the high of the mid-term trend, where the coordinates of 1.3650/1.3750 serve as the borders. If the price is held outside of a particular border in a four-hour period, it can point the way to the next movement in the market. Traders should continue to move on the principle of rebound as long as the borders are not broken. 
Simplified wave analysis and forecast for GBP/ USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF on February 2 2021-02-02 GBP/USD Analysis: On March 20 last year, a new wave of the upward trend of the British pound sterling started. The last section, unfinished for today, counts down from December 21. The quotes reached the lower limit of the strong potential reversal zone, along which the price formed an intermediate correction in the flat price corridor for the entire past month. Forecast: Today, the price movement is expected to continue mainly in the lateral plane. In the European session, short-term growth of the exchange rate is likely, no further than the resistance zone. Then you should wait for a reversal and a decline to the lower border of the price channel. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.3710/1.3740 Support: - 1.3610/1.3580 Recommendations: Trading in the British pound market today can be risky. It is recommended not to go beyond individual trading sessions and use a reduced lot in transactions. Sales of the instrument are more promising. 
USD/JPY Analysis: Since March last year, the direction of movement of the major Japanese yen sets a bearish trend. In the structure of the wave, there is a need for an intermediate correction. Since the beginning of this year, the price has been moving up. Forecast: In the next trading sessions, the upward trend of the movement is expected to end. By the end of the day, the probability of a reversal and the beginning of a decline increases. The boundaries of the expected daily course of the pair show the calculated zones. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 105.20/105.50 Support: - 104.50/104.20 Recommendations: Before the appearance of clear reversal signals, priority should be given to the pair's purchases. It is worth considering the limited potential of the current price growth. 
USD/CHF Analysis: The trend direction of the Swiss franc is directed to the "south" of the price chart. The dominant trend shifted the pair's quotes to the upper border of the strong reversal zone. Since January 6, the price is adjusted up, forming a clear zigzag. Forecast: During the next trading sessions, the main upward movement vector is expected. In the first half of the day, a short-term decline in the support area is not excluded. The growth phase is more likely in the second half of the day. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 0.9010/0.9040 Support: - 0.8940/0.8910 Recommendations: Sales in the Swiss franc market can be risky and are not recommended. The main attention should be paid to the search for buy signals. 
Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted one shows the expected movements. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time! Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for February 2, 2021 2021-02-02 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has moved lower after the technical support at the level of 1.2088 was broken. The new intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.2060 and the intraday technical resistance is located at 1.2088. The momentum is weak and negative, together with the current market conditions, but if the level of 1.2060 is clearly violated, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2053. This is the key short-term technical support for bulls. Violation of this level will have the real consequences for bulls. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2318 WR2 - 1.2247 WR1 - 1.2192 Weekly Pivot - 1.2115 WS1 - 1.2070 WS2 - 1.2000 WS3 - 1.1940 Trading Recommendations: Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
Technical analysis of AUD/USD for February 02, 2021 2021-02-02  Overview : The AUD/USD pair technical analysis : Correction from the top 0.7821 is still in advance. Deeper fall would be seen to double top of 0.7821 to 0.7600 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). The AUD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7821 to bottom at 0.7600 yesterday. Today, the AUD/USD pair has faced strong support at the level of AUD/USD. So, the strong support has been already faced at the level of AUD/USD and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again and form a double bottom. Strong support (0.7600) should be seen around there to bring rebound. The price spot of 0.7600 - 0.7547 remains a significant support zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will move to the upside again, and the scaling structure will not look corrective. On the upside, as long as the trend sets above the level of 0.7600, it will argue that the correction has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.7684 high. The AUD/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.7600; to form a bullish channel. Medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7600 resistance turned support holds. According to the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 0.7600 and 0.7821. Also, it should be noted major resistance is seen at 0.7821, while immediate resistance is found at 0.7684. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 0.7684 to take place soon. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.7684, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7600. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to tragets of 0.7684, 0.7742 and 0.7821. Forecast : Buy orders are recommended above the area of 0.7600 - 0.7545 with the first target at the level of 0.7684; and continue towards 0.7821 (the last bullish wave, top point). On the other hand, if the AUD/USD pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 0.7684; the market will decline further to the level of 0.7663 (daily support 2). Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 2, 2021 2021-02-02 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair keeps trading inside of the narrow zone located between the levels of 1.3624 - 1.3757. The bearish pressure has increased and the next target for them is the intraday technical support located at the level of 1.3624. Please pay attention to the recent lower low located at the level of 1.3609 as well. The market is coming off the overbought conditions and the momentum is weak and negative, pointing down. The key mid - term technical support is seen at the level of 1.3428, but please pay attention to any breakout below the trend line support around the level of 1.350 first. This might be the first indication of a potential move lower. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4011 WR2 - 1.3877 WR1 - 1.3788 Weekly Pivot - 1.3646 WS1 - 1.3564 WS2 - 1.3416 WS3 - 1.3342 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3744 and this was the higher close in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 2. COVID-19 is retreating. Euro traded downwards overnight. 2021-02-02 
Latest data shows that global incidence has decreased rather significantly, which suggests that COVID-19 is now retreating. In fact, the number of new infections have fallen almost twice from the peak, with the US leading the largest decline. But one surprising scenario is that Israel, although vaccinated almost 50% of the population, recorded a sharp rise in infections, almost 9,000 new cases a day. That is quite huge for a country that has only 7 million residents. As for other countries, large states in particular, they have vaccinated less than 5% of the population. 
EUR/USD - Euro traded at 1.2055 overnight. Perhaps, this is due to the good data on ISM Industrial Index, which came out at 58 points for January. Markets await the upcoming employment reports this Wednesday and Friday. Open short positions from 1.2055 Open long positions from 1.2160 Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 02, 2021 2021-02-02   Overview : A trend in the GBP/USD pair was argumentative as it was trading in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3758 and 0.3609. Resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.3758 (also, the double top is already set at the point of 1.3758 ) and 0.3609 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. The current price is seen at 1.3683 which represents a key level today. On the H4 chart : The GBP/USD pair will continue to rise from the level of 1.3644. The support is found at the level of 1.3644, which represents the 78% Fibonacci retracement level in the H4 time frame. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario, which suggests that the pair will stay above the zone of 1.3609 today. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 1.3644, while immediate resistance is seen at 1.3725. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 1.3638. So, buy above the level of 1.3638 with the first target at 1.3725 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 1.3758. Also, the level of 1.3758 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. The pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the GBP/USD pair to climb from 1.3638 to 1.3808 (1.3808 will be our last target today). At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3609, a further decline to 1.3405 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market. The market is still in an uptrend. We still prefer the bullish scenario. Equally important, the RSI is still calling for a strong bullish market and the current price is below the moving average 100. Forex forecast 02/02/2021 on AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY, USDX and Gold from Sebastian Seliga 2021-02-02 Let's take a look at the technical picture of AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY, USDX and Gold at the daily time frame chart.
Author's today's articles: Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Vladislav Tukhmenev  Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up." Vyacheslav Ognev  Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Mihail Makarov  -
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