| EUR/USD: Euro to storm the market soon. Biden set up a meeting with Pfizer to talk about new vaccine doses 2021-02-19 Euro soared yesterday amid weak labor market data in the US.  Aside from that, the European Central Bank said it is ready to adjust all of its instruments (including deposit rates) to ensure that the target inflation and employment levels will be reached, saying that it is not the time to relax, but to act quickly to any changes in the economy. The ECB also mentioned that the euro's steady increase in the market is starting to be a problem, since a very high rate has a negative impact on inflation. The COVID-19 pandemic also continues to affect activity, hence, economic prospects in the EU remain fairly uncertain. As for the United States, President Joe Biden has begun active work on vaccination. This would help fuel economic recovery, but only on the condition that Biden can find a new source of vaccine. At the moment, only 15% of the country's population has been vaccinated. Because of this, Biden set up a meeting with Pfizer to talk about new vaccine doses. But the current supply of drugs is insufficient. Even Europe faces a similar problem. Therefore, the White House said it would use the "Defense Production Act" to help Pfizer obtain additional equipment quickly, so that it could scale up the production and release of additional doses of the vaccine.  With regards to macro statistics, the European Commission said consumer confidence in the EU rose to -14.8 points this February, slightly lower than the expected -15 points. The corresponding indicator, meanwhile, increased to -15.7, from -16.5 in the previous month. The final data for this indicator will be released on February 25.  For the US, the Department of Labor said jobless claims have risen to much higher levels than forecasted. Initial claims have jumped to 861,000, up from the expected 765,000. This suggests that the labor market is still suffering from the coronavirus pandemic. But many expect that Joe Biden's proposed assistance program will help the sector recover.  Residential construction also dropped very significantly in the US. The number of new homes fell by 6.0% this January, reaching only 1.580 million a year. This did not come as a surprise though because economists already expected this sector to slow this 2021, since developers will face constraints such as high material prices and labor shortages. But demand for housing will remain amid low mortgage rates and supply shortages. Import prices also rose this January, jumping by 1.4% instead of the expected 1.0%.  Manufacturing activity also climbed up, albeit a bit slower than the previous months. The Philadelphia Fed said the index came out at 23.1 points this February, a bit lower than the 26.5 points recorded a month earlier. Economists had expected the index to value only 20.0 points. In any case, manufacturing activity is expected to continue to pick up this 2021 amid increased demand for goods, restocking and a recovery in business investment. Today, PMI reports in both manufacturing and service sectors (from the EU) will be released, and they will set the tone for the market in the morning. Then, similar figures will be published in the afternoon, but this time they will be from the United States. With regards to EUR/USD, bulls have successfully pushed the quote above 1.2080. However, ahead is a rather strong resistance (1.2120), in which going beyond will allow the euro to continue rising towards 1.2165. But if the quote drops below 1.2080, EUR/USD will collapse to 1.2035, and then to the base of the 20th figure. Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 19, 2021 2021-02-19 EUR/USD  The downward movement was delayed, as the bulls were busy recovering their positions yesterday. The impact on the effectiveness of the movement and on the options for the development of events in this area is stimulated by the accumulation of Ichimoku levels, which currently forms an attraction zone and resistance at the limits of 1.2096-71-43 (daily cross) and 1.2064 (weekly Fibo Kijun). Aside from that, the main priority of the bulls is to break through the weekly short-term trend (1.2150) and the all-time level (1.2170). But if the bearish mood returns, the relevance will turn to the support of 1.1975 (lower limit of the daily cloud + the weekly medium-term trend).  Some technical instruments in the smaller time frames managed to support the bullish interest. However, the resistance of the weekly long-term trend (1.2100) remains to have bearish prospects. A breakout of the MA and its reversal will favor the bulls again. If so, the next task will be continuing the upward trend (1.2169). Today, the resistances of the classic pivot levels are set at 1.2113 - 1.2133 - 1.2172. If a rebound occurs from the weekly long-term trend, the bears will have to recover the central pivot level (1.2074) and manage the attraction area (1.2064-43) in the bigger time frames, and only after that we will consider other intraday targets – 1.2015 (S2) and 1.1995 (S3). GBP/USD  A daily slowdown, resulting in a slight decline, occurred after the pair reached the resistance (1.3904) of the first target of the weekly target for the cloud's breakdown. Still, the bulls yesterday successfully overcame it and closed the day above. Today is the end of the current week, so we should expect interesting results. Most likely, the preservation (+ possible strengthening) of positions will contribute to the continuation of growth to entirely fulfill the weekly target (1.4181). The nearest supports are set at 1.3904 and 1.3859 (daily short-term trend).  The favor is still on the side of the bulls and so, updating the high (1.3985) will restore the upward trend. We consider the upward targets at 1.4024 (R1) - 1.4077 (R2) - 1.4170 (R3). In turn, the zone responsible for the power balance on H1, located within the range of 1.3931-1.3896 (central pivot level + long-term weekly trend), is now forming. The supports of the classic pivot levels are seen at 1.3878 - 1.3785 - 1.3732. *** The following methods are used in the technical analysis of the situation: Higher time frames – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels H1 – Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend) Trading idea for EUR/USD 2021-02-19  The bullish engulfing pattern in EUR / USD hints that the market will continue moving upwards.  In fact, it has formed this wave pattern, which suggests that a 50% retracement should be worked out in order to get huge profit.  This can be done by following this strategy:  Open long positions from current prices and then set the limit at 1.21880. Of course, players still need to be careful when entering the market. Trading is very precarious, but also profitable if the approach used is correct. The strategy above uses Price Action and Stop Hunting methods. Good luck! EUR/USD bulls not shaken by strong US macro statistics and rising Treasury yields 2021-02-19 EUR/USD bears failed to seize the initiative and develop a correction to the upward trend amid rising Treasury yields and strong statistics on US retail sales for January. As soon as the ECB announced in the minutes of the last meeting of the Governing Council that the increase in the rates of the European debt market was not a reason to increase QE, but for business activity in Germany and France to please the eye, the bulls came to their senses and renewed their attacks. Divergence in economic growth is a very powerful driver of exchange rate formation in Forex, because the stronger the economy, the stronger the currency. In this regard, the best dynamics of US retail sales over the past 7 months in January and the increase in forecasts for US GDP growth to 9.5% in the first quarter, it would seem, should have ripped the bulls on EUR/USD to shreds. The eurozone is likely to face a double recession due to lockdowns and slow vaccinations, so where can the euro strengthen? In principle, everything is interconnected in the global economy. Thanks to China and the US, the export-oriented currency bloc will be able to get up from its knees, and deferred demand at the opening of the economy will accelerate GDP to indecent values. This was already the case in mid-2020 when the foundation was formed under the upward trend in EUR/USD. Investors remembered that story and waited for signals to improve the situation in Europe, and they followed. The German purchasing managers' index in February showed the best dynamics over the past three years, which allowed the European composite PMI to rise. 
The growth in business activity is an important signal that helps explain the rally in European debt yields. At the same time, the fact that the ECB does not pay attention to the increase in nominal rates and asserts that only real rates matter for monetary policy plays into the hands of the EUR/USD bulls. The volume of purchases of bonds within the framework of the emergency asset purchase program has not increased recently. It looks like the European Central Bank is not going to soften monetary policy. Dynamics of European QE and German bond yields 
Thus, the euro was not afraid of either the rapid rally in the US debt market rates or the positive macroeconomic statistics for the US. What's next? The economic calendar in the last week of February can hardly be called saturated. Investors will pay attention to the Congress vote on Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus project, believe in an improvement in the world's epidemiological situation, and observe vaccinations. The acceleration of the latter in Europe could be a catalyst for the strengthening of the euro. Technically, the EUR/USD daily chart continues to implement the Wolfe Wave pattern with targets at 1.221 (projection from point 5 to line 1-4) and 1.225 (potential intersection of quotes with line 1-4). Formed on the breakout of the level of 1.199-1.2 and resistance at 1.208, I recommend holding long positions and periodically increasing them on pullbacks. EUR/USD, daily chart 
Analysis of Gold for February 19,.2021 - Potetnial for another drop on the EUR towards 1.2100 2021-02-19 BOE's Vlieghe: No more stimulus is required if economy evolves in line with February projection There is no hurry at all to remove stimulus - Preferred path is to keep current stimulus in place well into 2023, 2024
- Risks remain skewed towards a weaker scenario
- We are clearly not experiencing a V-shaped recovery
- If there is persistent slack, more monetary stimulus would be appropriate
- I would favour negative rates as the tool in that regard
- Negative rates could be needed later this year or into next year
- No evidence that negative rates have been counterproductive
- If market functioning deteriorates, BOE will not hesitate to add to QE
There's a bit of give and take in his remarks but generally, it will largely depend on how economic conditions develop in the coming months. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that the buyers got exhausted today and the downside roattion would be probably to correct strong upside movement from this morning. Watch for selling opportunities with the downside targets at 1,2105 and 1,2090 Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2140 Support levels: 1,2105 and 1,2090 Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 19, 2021 2021-02-19  Overview : EUR/USD : Price is testing major resistance at 1.2151 (50% Fibonacci retracement, bullish bar harmonic formation) and we expect to see a strong reaction off this level to push price up towards 1.2197 before 1.2262 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance). On the four-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.2044 and 1.2104. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.2104, which coincides with a golden ratio (38.2% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.2104. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.2104/1.2044. Buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (1.2104) with the first target at the level of 1.2197. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.2197. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.2349) to test it. Uptrend scenario : An uptrend will start as soon, as the market rises above support level 1.2104, which will be followed by moving up to resistance levels of 1.2197, a1.2266 nd 1.2349. On the other hand , the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.1951. A daily closure above 1.2349 allows the pair to make a quick bullish movement towards the next resistance level around 1.2500 next week. However, traders should watch for any signs of bearish rejection that occur around 1.1951. Analysis of Gold for February 19,.2021 - Second target reached at the price of $1.764. Potential for new downside wave and test of $1.730 2021-02-19 UK February CBI trends total orders -24 vs -35 expected Prior -38 - Trends selling prices 3
- Prior 4
UK industrial orders rebound in February with output seen stabilising after a sharp drop in January. The headline represents the highest reading since before the pandemic began, so that is some relative comfort. CBI notes that: "Manufacturing activity remains patchy, but so far appears to have taken a smaller hit than in previous lockdowns." The CBI readings are a survey on manufacturers to rate the level of volume for orders expected during the next 3 months. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that the Gold tested our second target at the price of $1,764. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,777 Support levels: $1,730 and $1,717.
Author's today's articles: Pavel Vlasov  No data Zhizhko Nadezhda  Graduated from Irkutsk State University. Having acquainted with Forex market in 2008, followed the courses in the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading. The agenda was so exiting that she moved to St. Petersburg in order to get professional education. Obtained a diploma of the retraining course on the discipline Exchange market and stock market issues, defended the graduation paper with distinction on the subject "Modern technical indicators as the basis of the trading system". At the moment obtains a master degree in International Banking Institute on specialty Financial markets and investments. Apart from trading is occupied with development of trading systems and formalization of the working strategies using Ichimoku indicator. At the moment is working on the book dedicated to the peculiarities of Ichimoku indicator and its operating methods. Interests: yoga, literature, travelling and photograph. "You can only get smarter by playing a smarter opponent" Basics of Chess play, 1883 "Successful people change by themselves, the others are changed by life" Jim Rohn Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Igor Kovalyov  Igor Kovalyov was born on September 24, 1985. Igor graduated from Krasnoyarsk State University with a degree in Philology and Journalism. He has a wide experience as a newspaper and information agency correspondent. He got interested in financial markets in 2001. He also graduated from Moscow State University of Economics, Statistics, and Informatics (MESI) with a degree in Global Economics and then served as an analyst in an investment company. He has been working at InstaForex since 2014. Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work" Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy.
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