| AUD/USD. Upward trend in power: buy Aussies on downturns 2021-02-19 Macroeconomic reports continue to provide background support to the Australian dollar, reflecting the recovery in Australia's economy. Strong data on the labor market suggests that conquering the 78th figure is only a matter of time. The Aussie has all the arguments to test the 0.7810 resistance level (upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). All that is needed is an additional informational impulse, which will either finally weaken the US dollar or strengthen the Aussie. The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly expressed concern about the pace of recovery in the labor market. RBA Governor Philippe Lowe said that, in expanding the program to stimulate the economy, further steps of the regulator will depend largely on the dynamics of key indicators, where unemployment plays a central role. That is why traders showed increased attention to this release. Following the publication, the AUD/USD pair jumped to the borders of the 78th figure, but was forced to retreat against the background of strong greenback positions. Nevertheless, this release is of strategic importance, as, in fact, it allows the RBA to continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. 
Almost all of the components of Australia's Nonfarm reports came out in the green zone. The unemployment rate fell to 6.4%, contrary to the forecast's estimate of 6.5%. This indicator demonstrates a downward trend for the third month in a row, indicating "healthy trends" in the labor market. The last time unemployment was at this level was in April 2020, when Australia felt the first negative effects of the coronavirus crisis. For many months, up to this point, this indicator has fluctuated in the range of 5.0% -5.3%. During its February meeting, RBA announced their forecast expecting the unemployment rate this year at 6%, while this figure will return to the pre-crisis range of 5% -5.5% next year. But the unemployment rate is falling at a faster pace than the initial forecasts, so the indicator may well return to 5% in the second half of this year. A separate line should note the increase in the number of employed in January. The overall figure fell slightly short of the predicted value (but quite minimal - 29,100 instead of the projected increase by 30,000). However, the structure of this indicator suggests that the overall growth was driven primarily by full-time employment. Whereas part-time employment showed a negative result (ratio of +59/-29.8). RBA reports have repeatedly indicated that full-time positions tend to offer higher wages and higher levels of social security than part-time jobs. Therefore, the current dynamics should not cause concern among traders of AUD/USD. Moreover, a similar picture was observed in the previous month when the component of full-time employment was twice as high as the component of part-time employment (35/14). This added to the optimistic macroeconomic picture. Of course, the published figures are still far from the ideal pre-crisis levels. But at the same time, it should be admitted that the growth rates of key indicators are ahead of forecasts. This fact suggests that the Australian economy, as a whole, withstands "coronavirus blows". 
This fundamental background is conducive to the development of the upward trend. The upward dynamics of the AUD/USD is constrained by the (so far) strong position of the US dollar, which was in high demand on Thursday on the back of a decline in the stock market and general risk aversion. Thursday's decline in the US stock market was led by tech giants such as Facebook and Zoom Video, whose shares lost more than one percent. One of the factors that caused Facebook's shares to plunge was its conflict with the Australian lawmakers, obliging the company to pay local media for the distribution of unique content. In response to this, Facebook turned off news feeds for Australians. However, dollar bulls began to loosen their grip again during the Asian session on Friday. The US dollar index turned 180 degrees and headed downward, reflecting the corresponding investor sentiment. Thus, in the medium and long-term, purchases of the Aussie are still relevant, even despite the temporary bursts of market interest in the US dollar. Longs can be considered with the main target of 0.7810 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart). On D1, the price is between the middle and upper lines of this indicator, as well as above all the lines of the Ichimoku trend indicator. This indicates the priority of the upward scenario. The support level is the target at 0.7660 - this is the upper border of the Kumo cloud on the same time frame. You may consider placing a stop loss here because, if for some reason, the pair falls below this level, the upward trend will lose its relevance for a short time. However, given the general fundamental background for the AUD/USD pair, this scenario looks unlikely. Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 19, 2021 2021-02-19 
Today we will take a look at the long-term chart of EUR/JPY. As can be seen EUR/JPY broken above the triangle resistance-line in mid-December 2020 near 126.00 and after a period of consolidation just around this resistance-line EUR/JPY has started to move higher again in wave [C]. Ultimately wave [C] should break above the peak of wave [A] at 169.97 so we should expect much higher levels in the years to come. Why should we take a look at the long-term picture from time to time? Because it's easy to see the trees of the wood when standing in the middle of it and loosing sight of the long-term picture could be costly. We know that the rally to above 169.97 won't be in a straight line, but keeping the long-term picture in mind, will help us keep focus and make us better traders both in the short- and long-term. Short-term key-support is seen at 127.04. Next medium-target is seen at 137.50. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 125.85 with our stop placed at 126.85. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 127.04 and place your stop just below 127.00. We are still in the very early parts for this new long-term uptrend and risk/reward is clearly in favor of being long EUR. Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR/USD currency pair for February 19, 2021 2021-02-19 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, from the level of 1.2090 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the market will move up and try to reach the resistance line of 1.2115 (red bold line). If this line is tested, it is possible to continue working upwards with the target of 1.2172 - the resistance level (blue bold line). 
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- Volumes - up;
- Candlestick analysis - up;
- Trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger bands - up;
- Weekly chart - up.
General conclusion: Today, from the level of 1.2090 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price will move up and try to reach the resistance line of 1.2115 (red bold line). If this line is tested, it is possible to continue working upwards with the target of 1.2172 - the resistance level (blue bold line). Unlikely scenario: the price, from the level of 1.2090 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), will move down with a target of 1.2063 – the 38.2% retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, it is likely to continue working downwards with the target of 1.1975 - the 50.0% retracement level (red dotted line). Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for February 19, 2021 2021-02-19 
There was no time for the expected correction in blue wave iv/ to correct in a simple manner, but we think a more complex correction is unfolding in blue wave iv/ and expect resistance near 147.97 to be able to cap the upside for a deeper correction closer to 145.28 before blue wave v/ is ready to take over for a rally towards resistance in the 155.55 - 156.61 area. A break below minor support at 146.41 will indicate that the final dip closer to 145.28 is in motion. R3: 148.87 R2: 148.23 R1: 147.91 Pivot: 147.28 S1: 146.66 S2: 146.36 S3: 145.95 Trading recommendation: We are long 50% GBP from 142.27 and we will raise our stop to 146.40 GBP/USD. February 19. COT report. Bank of England board member: negative interest rates can be a great tool. 2021-02-19 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the level of 1.3976. The rebound of quotes from this level allowed traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and some fall. But, as we can see, no fall has begun. Closing the pair's rate above the level of 1.3976 will increase the chances of further growth towards the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.4063). Yesterday, a member of the monetary committee of the Bank of England, Michael Saunders, gave a speech. A short background. All the recent comments of the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, spoke in favor of the fact that the regulator does not abandon the introduction of negative rates, but not in the near future. The markets stubbornly interpreted this information as positive, continuing to buy the pound sterling. At the same time, the comments of other members of the board of directors, for example, Silvana Tenreyro, who stated the need to lower the rate, were ignored by traders. Yesterday, Michael Saunders said that negative rates may soon become "the best tool of the Bank of England". Saunders expects a very long recovery in the labor market. Let me remind you that the unemployment rate in the UK is now only 5%. However, according to the latest research, it may grow by several percent, as the state business support programs expire in March-April. If new programs are not introduced, then many companies will be ready to reduce their staff. Thus, it is now very important for the UK to resolve the issue of further state support. However, traders do not show any concerns about this. The British dollar continues to trade very high and does not react to such comments from the country's top economists. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair made a return to the level of 1.3850, and after the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator, it performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and resumed the growth process. At the moment, the quotes were near the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3979). The rebound of the pair from this level will work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of 1.3850. The brewing bearish divergence increases the probability of a rebound. Closing above the level of 161.8% will allow traders to expect further growth in the direction of 1.4126. GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Thursday, the US and UK calendars were almost empty, so the impact of the information background was minimal. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: UK - change in retail trade volume with and without fuel costs (07:00 GMT). UK - manufacturing PMI (09:30 GMT). UK - PMI index for the services sector (09:30 GMT). US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (14:45 GMT). US - PMI index for the service sector (14:45 GMT). On February 19, the calendars of economic events in the United Kingdom and the United States contain business activity indices. In the UK, a report on retail sales will also be released. All this data can pass traders by. The Briton continues to grow without them. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report of February 9 on the British pound was quite interesting and noteworthy. In recent weeks, speculators have not made serious steps in the direction of strengthening the "bullish" mood. However, all this time, the pound was still growing. The latest COT report showed an increase in the number of long contracts focused on the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders by 6,465 units. At the same time, speculators got rid of 4,660 short contracts. Thus, the Briton grew even without increasing long contracts from speculators. Now it has an even greater chance of continuing growth. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the British dollar in the event of a rebound from the level of 1.3850 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.3976. This rebound was completed, reinforced by bullish divergence, and the goal was achieved. I recommend new purchases when closing above 1.3979 with a target of 1.4126. I recommend selling the pound sterling at the rebound from the level of 1.3979 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.3850. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. February 19. COT report. Traders are waiting for the approval of America's bailout plan and the start of the distribution of the EU recovery fund. 2021-02-19 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On February 18, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process started a day earlier, in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2104). Although the graphic picture is "pleasing to the eye", at this time it is very difficult for traders to explain the nature of the movement of the euro/dollar currency pair. Yesterday, for example, there was no single important economic report. There were no speeches from high-ranking officials like Christine Lagarde or Jerome Powell. There was no news from the US Congress regarding the new aid package for the US economy. So, on what basis did the markets buy the European currency yesterday? This question is difficult to answer. Of course, there is always technical analysis or indicator analysis. However, I would like to remind you that both of these types of analyses mostly visualize what is happening in the market. For example, after the fall of quotes by 145 points, a correction was brewing. But then today, there should be a resumption of the fall in quotes. Do traders want to invest in the dollar again? In the last year, the US currency has been growing extremely rarely and analysts called a whole list of reasons that could cause such a movement. In recent weeks, nothing happened that could radically change the information background and the mood of traders. By and large, traders are now waiting for the new package of assistance to the US economy to be officially approved and when the European Union will begin distributing the recovery fund, for which there were wars between the 27 EU member states last year. This money, which will be raised through loans or printed, should help both economies recover faster. However, how will this affect the dollar, for example? The US economy is recovering faster than the European economy even without the new aid package, but the US currency is falling. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a fall to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027), a rebound from it, and a reversal in favor of the European currency. Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the level of 1.2204. Bullish divergence also increases the likelihood of further gains. Closing the pair's exchange rate at the level of 161.8% will work in favor of the US currency and resume falling in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed the second breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor. Therefore, at the moment, the pair still retains the chances of continuing the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). Closing under the corridor will allow you to count on a drop in quotes. EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On February 18, there were no economic reports in the European Union, and in the United States - only data on primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (09:00 GMT). EU - index of business activity in the service sector (09:00 GMT). US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (14:45 GMT). US - PMI index for the service sector (14:45 GMT). On February 19, the European Union and the United States will release business activity indices in the service and manufacturing sectors. The indices for the service sector will attract the most attention, as they are the ones that suffer the most in the context of the pandemic and quarantine. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, another COT report was released. And it turned out to be much calmer than the previous one. The "Non-commercial" category of traders, which I consider the most important, opened 4,722 long contracts and got rid of 2,606 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators again became more "bullish". Accordingly, the prospects of the European currency are improving again after the report of a week ago, when speculators got rid of 23 thousand long contracts and many believed that the upward trend would be completed. However, I warned that this behavior of large players may be an accident. It is still too early to talk about the end of the upward trend. In total, during the last reporting week, all categories of players closed approximately 11 thousand contract positions. Consequently, interest in the euro currency has decreased slightly. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: Sales of the pair are recommended when closing quotes under the level of 161.8% (1.2027) on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.1952. It was recommended to buy the pair in case of a rebound from the level of 1.2027 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.2104. New purchases – when closing above 1.2104 with a target of 1.2151. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 19. COT reports. Euro buyers try to reclaim the market. Bears aim to go beyond 1.2075 2021-02-19 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: I paid attention to the 1.2075 level in my afternoon forecast and advised you to act on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. If in the first half of the day we did not wait for a normal signal for opening long positions, then such a signal appeared during the US session, after a breakout and test of the 1.2075 level. However, unfortunately, it was not realized, and we never got to the designated goals. Weak fundamental data on the US economy contributed to the euro's growth as it rose above 1.2075, but there were no new buyers there. 
Bulls will be focused on protecting support at 1.2075 today, but this will happen only if we receive good fundamentals for the eurozone countries. A large number of reports will be released today, this includes PMIs in the manufacturing sector and PMIs in the service sector. An improvement in these indicators for the month of February will enable the bulls to form a false breakout in the support area of 1.2075, which creates a good signal to open long positions in continuing the upward correction that appeared yesterday. In this case, you can count on an update of resistance at 1.2122, where I recommend taking profit. The 1.2166 high will be a distant target, the price can only surpass it after a breakout and consolidation at the 1.2122 level. If bulls are not active in the 1.2075 area, then it is best not to rush to buy, but wait for a downward correction to the support area of 1.2037, from where you can open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on rising by 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: The bears will look forward to regaining control over the 1.2075 level, but this requires a lot of work. A breakout and being able to test this area from the bottom up creates a good signal to open short positions in order to sustain the bear market and return the pair to a low of 1.2037, where I recommend taking profits. Disappointing fundamental reports on Germany and the eurozone may contribute to the realization of such a scenario. Moving averages also pass below the 1.2075 level, which also limits the euro's downside potential. We can expect a test of the 1.2003 low in case the pair sharply falls in the first half of the day. In the EUR/USD growth scenario, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from a large resistance at 1.2122, counting on a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 9 revealed an increase in short and long positions, which reflects the current situation. The equality of buyers and sellers clearly characterizes the entirety of last week, which is where the pair was, in a horizontal channel. It is important to note that any adequate decline in the EUR/USD pair has always been accompanied by quick buys, and the fact that the US dollar continues to be less and less in demand among investors has already been mentioned many times. Therefore, I think a more correct approach to the market is to buy the euro. The only problem for the euro is the lack of guidance from the European Central Bank and the risk of verbal intervention, which limits the growth potential. However, the demand for the euro will only increase with each significant downward correction in the pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose from 216,887 to 220,943, while short non-commercial positions rose from 79,884 to 80,721. As a result, the total non-commercial net position rose after last week's decline to 140,222 from 137,003. The weekly closing price was 1.2052 against 1.2067 a week earlier. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to seize the initiative. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.2100 area will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A break of the lower border at 1.2065 will increase pressure on the euro. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 19 2021-02-19  COVID-19 incidence has now dropped to below 400,000 a day. The United States, in particular, has recorded less than 70,000 new cases, while Europe listed no higher than 25,000.
However, these declines are not related to vaccinations, at least except in US and Britain, where up to 20% of the population has been vaccinated. 
EUR/USD - euro is trading sideways. Open long positions after a break above 1.2170. Open short positions from 1.2020. Dollar stopped growing due to weak employment data in the US. Technical analysis. Daily forecast for GBP/USD, February 19, 2021 2021-02-19 Trend analysis (pic. 1). On Friday, the pair reversed from the level of 1.3970 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle). It is trying to go down to the target level of 1.3886, which is 8 average EMA (blue thin line). When this line is reached, the price may continue to decrease to the target level of 1.3843, which is 13 average EMA (yellow thin line). 
On Friday, the pair reversed from the level of 1.3970 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle). It is trying to go down to the target level of 1.3886, which is 8 average EMA (blue thin line). When this line is reached, the price may continue to decrease to the target level of 1.3843, which is 13 average EMA (yellow thin line). Pic. 1 (Daily chart). Comprehensive analysis -technical analysis - down; - Fibonacci levels - down; - volumes - down; - candlestick analysis - down; - trend analysis - down; - Bollinger bands - down; - weekly chart - down. Conclusion: Today, from the level of 1.3970(the closing of yesterday's daily candle) the pair is likely to start moving down to the target level of 1.3886, which is 8 average EMA (blue thin line). When this line is reached, the price may continue to move down to the target level of 1.3843, which is 13 average EMA (yellow thin line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3970 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle), it is likely to continue to move up to the target level of 1.4078 – the upper limit of the Bollinger Line indicator (the black dotted line). Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 19, 2021 2021-02-19  Overview : As expected the GBP/USD pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.3868 and 1.3918. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.3868, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.3868. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3868/1.3918. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (1.3868) with the first target at the level of 1.3985. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.3985. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.3985) to test it. Also, it should be noticed that, the level of 1.3868 represents the daily pivot point. We expect the GBP/USD pair to move between 1.3868 and 1.4080 in coming hours. On the H1 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.4040 and 1.4080. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 1.3868 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 1.4040. If the trend breaks the support at 1.4040 (first resistance) the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.4080 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3751. Simplified wave analysis and forecast for GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF on February 19 2021-02-19 GBP/USD Analysis: There is a clear bullish trend on the chart of the British pound. Its wave level has already reached the level of the monthly TF. The price is within a strong reversal zone. There is a need for a counter correction in the structure, however, there are no signals of an imminent reversal on the small-scale charts yet. Forecast: In the current day, the upward movement vector will remain. A side flat is possible in the next session. A decline in the support area is not excluded. By the end of the day, we can expect an increase in volatility and a new attempt at growth. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.4070/1.4100 Support: - 1.3950/1.3920 Recommendations: Until clear reversal signals appear, selling the pound is not recommended. When calculating MM, it is worth considering the limited potential of the current rise. 
USD/JPY Analysis: As part of the bearish trend dominating the Japanese yen chart, an upward correction has been formed since the beginning of this year. It has reached the lower limit of the potential reversal zone. Two days ago, a downward movement with a high wave level began to develop. This may be the beginning of a new downward wave. Forecast: In the first half of the day, the price is expected to move sideways. After a second rise to the calculated resistance at the end of the day, you can expect an increase in activity and a price decline to the support zone. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 105.80/106.10 Support: - 105.10/104.80 Recommendations: There are no conditions for purchases in the yen market. Until clear sell signals appear, it is optimal to refrain from entering the pair's market. 
USD/CHF Analysis: The quotes of the Swiss franc major have been steadily moving to the "south" of the price chart over the past year. The unfinished wave in the direction of the trend started on February 5 and is nearing completion. Forecast: Today, the pair's market is expected to have a general sideways mood. In the first half of the day, there is a high probability of a short-term rise to the resistance zone. Then you should wait for the reversal and the price move down. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 0.8990/0.9020 Support: - 0.8930/0.8900 Recommendations: Transactions on the franc market today are possible only within the framework of individual trading sessions. Before the appearance of clear reversal signals, you should give priority to purchases. 
Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted line shows the expected movements. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time! Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for February 19, 2021 2021-02-19 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2035 and is currently trading back above the short-term trend line resistance around the level of 1.2118 (at the time of writing the article). The next target is seen at the level of 1.2154 - 1.2178, which is a well known supply zone. Only a sustained break out above this zone would resume the up trend and set the next target for bulls to 1.2284. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2088. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for Euro. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2312 WR2 - 1.2233 WR1 - 1.2184 Weekly Pivot - 1.2097 WS1 - 1.2056 WS2 - 1.1971 WS3 - 1.1920 Trading Recommendations: Any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken, because since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2175 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 19, 2021 2021-02-19 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair keeps moving up and the recent bounce back above the levels of 1.3844 and 1.3889 is the confirmation of the strength of bulls. The market is currently consolidating the recent gains around the level of 1.3970, but the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4000. There is another target located at the level of 1.4089. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for Cable. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4119 WR2 - 1.3990 WR1 - 1.3939 Weekly Pivot - 1.3805 WS1 - 1.3748 WS2 - 1.3625 WS3 - 1.3558 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level of 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3901 and this was the higher close in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Forex forecast 02/19/2021 on USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, Gold and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga 2021-02-19 Let's take a look at the technical picture of USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, Gold and Bitcoin at the daily time frame chart. Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 19, 2021 2021-02-19 Once again, the US dollar dropped under a burst of sales from market participants. We will discuss what has changed, what prospects await us, and more in this article. First, let's start with yesterday's economic calendar. The US weekly data on claims for unemployment benefits was published. Here, the volume of applications for the benefits was expected to decline, but instead, there was an increase in initial applications and a revision of previous indicators, which did not please traders. The volume of initial applications for benefits rose from 848 thousand to 861 thousand, against the forecasted decline of 765 thousand. Moreover, the previous data was revised from 793 thousand to 848 thousand. In turn, the volume of repeated applications for benefits fell from 4,558 thousand to 4,494 thousand, although the expected decline was 4,413 thousand. The previous figure was also revised from 4,545 thousand to 4,558 thousand. It can be noticed that this is not the best data. However, the market had already managed to weaken the US dollar before its release. In this case, the value of the dollar slightly strengthened during the time of its publication. What happened on the trading chart? The EUR/USD pair failed to maintain the downward trend that was set before. As a result, a pullback occurred towards the previously broken support level of 1.2100. It is still too early to decide if this market move would mark the beginning of an upward trend, as the quote is still within the limits of the key correction path of 1.2349 ---> 1.1950. The GBP/USD pair continues to update the high of the medium-term trend, where market participants already reached the psychological level of 1.4000. Such a high speculative hype, in relation to the pound, covers all the technical and fundamental factors of its overbought status in the market. 
Trading recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for February 19, 2021 Today, the UK released its retail sales data for January, which declined to -8.2% against the forecast of -2.5%. In annual terms, the decline is -5.9%. The indicators are very bad, but the pound persistently did not mind the negativity on the UK economy. As for the statistical data, there will be only preliminary indicators on the business activity index in Europe, Britain and the United States. We do not expect sharp changes in these indices. Looking at the trading chart of the EUR/USD, it is visible that the quote is moving within the level of 1.2100, showing lack of activity. If the upward tick set yesterday continues in the market, then a reversal to the area of this week's local high (1.2169) may occur. It is worth noting that sellers still have a chance to resume the course in the direction of the January correction as long as the quote does not hold above 1.2160 in the H4 time frame. 
As for the trading chart of GBP/USD, it can be seen that the quote is within the limits of the psychological level, trying to keep speculators on the upward tick. We can assume that the quote will continue to focus on the psychological range of 1.2950/1.4050, where it is possible to enter positions considering that the price is held outside a particular border in the H4 time frame. 
Author's today's articles: Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Torben Melsted  Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Mihail Makarov  - Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Vyacheslav Ognev  Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Vladislav Tukhmenev  Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up."
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