| EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Euro may climb up even amid bad economic data from the EU. WHO begins study on the origin of coronavirus. 2021-02-03 Media reports say an international team of scientists arrived in Wuhan this morning to start WHO's study on the coronavirus.  With this, it will only be a matter of time before the world finds answers to the questions regarding the virus. In particular, we will finally know the true origin of COVID-19, as there are a lot of theories on this subject. In another note, it seems that many are beginning to seriously consider the recent statements of the European Central Bank regarding the likely decline in deposit rates. Just last Wednesday, a member of the Board, Klaas Knot, said the regulator is closely monitoring the rate of the euro, so it may decrease interest rates if necessary to achieve target inflation. Other ECB members have also said the same. Current economic conditions are also not that good. In fact, the latest reports say the EU economy contracted in the fourth quarter, after recovering in the third. Specifically, Q4 GDP was down by 0.7%, after rising by 12.4% in the previous quarter. On an annualized basis, the economy fell by 5.1%, while for the whole of 2020, it collapsed by 6.8%.  Separately, the largest GDP contraction was observed in Austria, where the indicator fell by 4.3%. In Italy, GDP decreased by 2%, while in France, it dropped by 1.3%. Only Germany recorded growth to 0.1%. These declines are most probably brought by low consumer demand and decrease in exports caused by the restrictions. But as long as countries are in lockdown, the economy will not be able to recover to pre-crisis levels. Activity will continue to be halted, or at least be disrupted, amid tight restrictions. Unfortunately, such a scenario could lead to a double recession. In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) already revised its GDP forecast for the EU economy, from 5.2% to 4.2% this 2021. Anyhow, today, a number of economic reports will be published, and they may put pressure on the European currency. But given the recent market behavior, in which the euro declined amid good data instead of the other way around, it is possible that bad indicators will not cause strong pressure on EUR / USD. Large players may also begin playing against speculators, which will lead to an increase in the pair. Therefore, it is important for euro bulls to bring the quote to 1.2055, as a break above which will certainly push EUR / USD higher, towards 1.2090 and 1.2130. But if the euro returns to 1.2015, the pair could quickly fall to 1.1970, and then collapse deeper to 1.1925.  With regards to other reports, Insee said consumer prices in France rose this January, thereby increasing inflation to 0.6% year-on-year. Growth is mainly due to volatile product categories. In particular, on the price increase of tobacco products and services. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2%. As for the US, business activity in New York slowed significantly. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the index of current business conditions fell to 51.2 points, from 61.3 points a month earlier. The slowdown was observed in all sub-indices. GBP/USD House prices in UK rose 6.4% year-on-year this January, following a 7.3% increase last December. But on a monthly basis, it fell by 0.3%, after climbing by 0.9% in the previous month. With regards to GBP/USD, a break above 1.3755 will certainly lead to a jump towards the 38th figure. In particular, towards 1.3880 and 1.3960. But if the quote drops below the 36th figure, GBP/USD will decline to 1.3530, and then to 1.3460. EUR/USD. February 3. COT report. Bear traders continue to take advantage of the situation 2021-02-03 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On February 2, the EUR/USD pair continued the process of falling after a close was made under the ascending trend line. Thus, the mood of traders is now characterized as "bearish", and the process of falling can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.1997). It is impossible to say that there has been a lot of important news in recent days. I would even say it differently. It is precise because there are no important topics and important news right now that the US dollar has started the growth process. Of course, the fact that the euro currency has been growing for a long time and bull traders just needed a pause, and no one canceled the correction, also played a part. However, I cannot conclude that the dollar is growing at this time for any specific reasons related to the information background. Yesterday, the report on GDP in the fourth quarter in the European Union was released. It showed a smaller drop in the indicator than traders expected, however, the euro currency continued to fall. It seems that traders are now paying little attention to economic reports. In the United States, negotiations are continuing between representatives of the two ruling parties – the Democrats and the Republicans – on a new package of assistance to the economy. There is still no mutual understanding, so either the Democrats will have to find workarounds to adopt Joe Biden's $ 1.9 trillion "economic rescue plan", or they will have to bargain for several more months with the Republicans, who offer a package of only $ 0.6 trillion. Everyone understands that such serious disagreements can be cleaned up within a few months. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes fell to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). The rebound of the pair from this level will work in favor of the European currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2353). Closing quotes below the Fibo level of 161.8% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). EUR/USD - Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a fall to the lower border of the upward trend corridor. A rebound from this line will work in favor of resuming growth in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). Closing the pair under an upward trend corridor will increase the probability of a fall in the medium term. EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On February 2, the calendar of economic events in the United States was empty. In the European Union, an important report on GDP was released, which was not taken into account by traders. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - index of business activity in the service sector (09:00 GMT). EU - index of consumer prices (10:00 GMT). US - change in the number of employees from ADP (13:15 GMT). US - PMI index for the service sector (14:45 GMT). US - ISM composite index for the non-manufacturing sector (15:00 GMT). On February 3, the European Union and the United States will release data on business activity in the service sectors. And the EU will also release an inflation report, and in the US – the ADP report on changes in the number of people employed. They are more important than business activity data. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which was intended to help answer the question, what are the prospects for the euro currency? At the beginning of 2021 (in its first month), the quotes of the euro currency fell more than they grew. However, as 3 out of 4 COT reports show during this time, the "Non-commercial" category of traders is once again increasing the number of long contracts on their hands. This means that speculators continue to believe in the growth of the euro currency. During the last reporting week, major players opened more than 3 thousand long contracts and closed more than 1 thousand short contracts. Thus, their mood was again more "bullish" than a week earlier. Are we waiting for the new growth of the European currency? Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: It is recommended to buy the euro currency with the targets of 1.2072 and 1.2131 on the hourly chart when the rebound from the level of 161.8% (1.2027) on the 4-hour chart. New sales of the pair are recommended when closing below the level of 1.2057 with targets of 1.1997 and 1.1913. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/JPY on February 3 2021-02-03 EUR/USD Analysis: The last unfinished section of the upward trend of the major European currency has been reporting since November 4 last year. Since the beginning of this year, a downward correction has been developing from the lower border of the strong resistance zone of a large time frame. Forecast: Today, a predominantly downward vector of price movement is expected. In the European session, a short-term price increase to the resistance zone is possible. In the downward phase, you can expect an increase in volatility. Activation is likely at the end of the day or tomorrow. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.2060/1.2090 Support: - 1.1960/1.1930 Recommendations: There are no conditions for purchases on the euro market until the current correction is completed. From the calculated resistance, it is recommended to track the signals for selling the instrument. It is necessary to take into account the limited potential of the move down. 
AUD/USD Analysis: The upward wave of the Australian dollar, which began in March last year, reached the lower limit of the preliminary target zone. The wave structure does not show completeness. Since January 6, the pair's quotes form an intermediate correction. According to some signs, this wave is close to completion. Forecast: Today, the general flat mood of the pair is expected. After a likely attempt to put pressure on the resistance zone, we should expect a return to the bearish rate and a decline in the area of the calculated support. It passes through the upper level of the preliminary target zone. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 0.7640/0.7670 Support: - 0.7550/0.7520 Recommendations: Trading on the pair's market today is only possible in separate sessions. Before the appearance of clear reversal signals, the priority is to sell the instrument. 
GBP/JPY Analysis: Since March last year, the quotes of the pair have moved the price to the "north" of the price chart. A week ago, the lower limit of the intermediate zone of a potential reversal was reached. The wave structure is not complete. The width of the zone is more than two price figures, so you can not expect a change in the short-term trend in the near future. The price forms an intermediate correction. Forecast: In the upcoming European session, quotes are expected to decline in the area of settlement support. Next, you should count on a reversal and a second attempt to climb, up to the resistance zone. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 143.90/144.20 Support: - 143.00/142.70 Recommendations: Today, trading on the pair's market will be more effective within the intraday. When selling, you should reduce the lot and take into account the limited potential for reduction. Priority is given to the pair's purchases. 
Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted line shows the expected movements. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time! Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on February 3, 2021 2021-02-03 Today, we will return to the consideration of the pound/dollar currency pair, where we will focus on the technical picture of this instrument, and also highlight the most important fundamental events that can have a significant impact on the price dynamics of this interesting currency pair. If we start with today's statistics, the UK will publish the PMI index in the services sector, and during the US session, employment data from ADP will be released, as well as the index of business activity in the services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will be published. All the details are in the economic calendar. It will be extremely important for the British currency tomorrow when the Bank of England will announce its decision on the rates and volume of the asset purchase program, as well as publish an accompanying statement, followed by a press conference of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. As it has been repeatedly noted, the last day of the current five-day period will be very important, when investors will learn about the state of the US labor market. Daily 
Turning to the technical analysis of the GBP/USD currency pair, I will start with the daily timeframe, where a very interesting picture is observed. Despite another attempt by the bulls to break through the strong and important resistance level of 1.3757, this mark remained unconquered. Moreover, on February 1, there was a strong rebound down from this level, as a result of which a candle with a long upper shadow (highs at 1.3756) and an impressive bearish body appeared on the daily chart. Usually, when similar bounces occur from such strong levels and similar candles appear, the market continues to move in the chosen direction. In this case, at yesterday's trading, it was quite possible to expect the continuation of the downward dynamics of the British pound. However, as can be seen from the daily candle formed yesterday, investors prefer not to rush and wait for tomorrow's decision of the British Central Bank, as well as Friday's data on the US labor market. In my opinion, yesterday's doji candle with a tiny bullish body and equidistant shadows signals exactly this, namely, the reluctance of investors to take risks. It is worth paying attention to the fact that during yesterday's trading, attempts to break above one of the key levels of 1.3700, as well as to break through a strong support level in the area of 1.3630, were not successful. I believe that this also indicates the current market uncertainty ahead of important events from the United Kingdom and the United States of America. Since two consecutive daily candles have already closed under the red line of the Ichimoku indicator Tenkan, players who want to increase the exchange rate today need to return the quote above the Tenkan, otherwise, their position will become even more difficult. Bears on the pair need to push through the strong support area of 1.3630-1.3600 and close trading below 1.3600. In this case, their chances of further movement of the quote in the south direction will significantly increase. H1 
On the hourly chart, the pair is currently trading below the used moving averages of 50 MA, 89 EMA, and 200 EMA, each of which can provide strong resistance to the quote and turn it down. In particular, 50 MA is already on the defensive right now and does not miss the quote above yet. I recommend that you carefully monitor which candlesticks will form near the current prices, that is, under all three moving averages. In the case of bearish patterns of candlestick analysis, I recommend selling the pair with the nearest targets in the area of 1.3635-1.3615. If bullish candlestick patterns appear in this target zone, we buy with the nearest target near 1.3700 or 1.3750. Also, it is worth looking at purchases if the pair breaks up all three hourly moving averages, fixes above them, and gives a pullback to the broken moving averages. As you understand, the situation for making trade decisions is very difficult at the moment, so for those who do not want to take risks, it is better to refrain from trading the British pound for the time being. Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on February 3, 2021 2021-02-03 At yesterday's trading, the main currency pair of the Forex market was trading unevenly, as we can see by looking at the EUR/USD charts. However, for now, let us briefly talk about the important economic events of yesterday, and what fundamental information investors expect today. So, the main event of yesterday was the preliminary data on the GDP of the eurozone for the fourth quarter of last year. According to data provided by the Eurostat agency, the gross domestic product in the region of the single European currency suffered fewer losses than analysts expected. Contrary to economists' forecasts that the eurozone's GDP will shrink by 1% in the quarter, the actual figure was less depressing and amounted to minus 0.7%. In annual terms, the actual figure of minus 5.1% was also better than the experts' expectations, which were reduced to minus 5.4%. However, according to some assumptions, the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have not yet fully affected the European economy, and in the first quarter of this year, the data may be less optimistic. Overall, it is expected to take about two years for the European economy to recover from the coronavirus epidemic. This is nothing new, as the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, has repeatedly mentioned in her speeches. Today, another important indicator will be received from the eurozone at 11:00 (London time) — the consumer price index, which indicates the state of inflation in the region. From the American statistics, it is worth highlighting the employment data from ADP, which is considered to be a leading indicator of official reports on Nonfarm Payrolls. I also recommend paying attention to the data from the US on the index of business activity in the service sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). You can see the time and forecasts for these and other events in the economic calendar. Daily 
As already noted at the beginning of today's article, trading on February 2 for the euro/dollar was very ambiguous, as evidenced by yesterday's daily candle with almost equidistant long shadows and a relatively small bearish body. Despite the closing of yesterday's session below 1.2050, it is still too early to make a clear conclusion that this important level is truly broken. First, one candle closed below 1.2050 (given the strength and significance of this level) is not enough to claim a true breakdown. Secondly, yesterday's candle with long shadows, of which the lower one is still slightly larger, indicates the difficulties of market participants with further determining the price direction of the main currency pair. Naturally, it will be very important how today's and tomorrow's trading will take place, but Friday's data on the US labor market will put an end to it. There is practically no doubt about it. H4 
In this timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is trading in a descending pink channel, the parameters of which are: 1.2284-1.2155 (resistance line) and 1.2053 (support line). It is noteworthy that at the time of writing this article, trading is conducted near the middle dotted line of this channel. Let me remind you that the middle line is often a kind of "watershed". If the price is fixed above it, most likely, the movement will continue to the channel resistance line, which is likely to be tested for a breakout. Given that the used moving averages have accumulated under this line, its strength will increase significantly, so I recommend waiting for the pair to rise to the price zone of 1.2115-1.2135 and consider opening short positions on EUR/USD. At the same time, an additional signal for opening sales will be the appearance of bearish candlesticks in the selected zone, indicating a reversal of the quote in the south direction. Since attempts to gain a foothold above the important mark of 1.2200 for the euro bulls failed, now the level of 1.2100 comes into play. A confident closing and subsequent consolidation above this mark will breathe new energy into the players to increase the rate. Otherwise, the pair will test the most important psychological mark of 1.2000 for a breakdown, which is likely to pass, after which the weakening of the single currency in a pair with the US dollar will continue. So, at the moment, the main trading recommendation for EUR/USD is sales, which are better to open after minor corrective pullbacks up. Alternatively, to open short positions, you can use the price zone highlighted in this review. Gold overshadowed by silver's unexpected rally 2021-02-03 Gold had its worst start in 10 years on the back of an unexpected strengthening of the US dollar and rising Treasury yields for many investors. In January, precious metal quotes sank by 3%, which was the worst result since 2011. Let me remind you that it was in that year that the previous record high of $1921 per ounce was recorded, after which the upward trend was broken and the XAU/USD quotes fell to $1050 in 2015. The fact that the global economy is currently recovering from a recession makes it possible to draw analogies. Gold dynamics in January 
Of course, investors are more interested in watching the ups and downs of events in the silver market, which, due to the activity of newbie traders from the social sharing platform Reddit, quickly soared to $30 an ounce, and then, against the background of increasing CME margin requirements, went down from heaven to earth than to contemplate the trampling of gold in a narrow trading range of $1810-1870. Inspired by the victory over the hedge funds in the battle for GameStop, the crowd felt invulnerable, but financial markets are quick to put in place those who go overboard. As for the gold, any consolidation is followed by explosive moves, and traders should keep their finger on the pulse in anticipation of a breakout. The question is where exactly gold intends to go. In my opinion, the answer to it should be sought in the international currency market. In early 2021, most investors were confident in the bearish outlook for the US dollar. A scenario of defeating COVID-19, a booming global economy, and falling safe-haven currencies seemed highly likely, but vaccine proliferation problems and a double recession in the eurozone undermined confidence in the euro. The share of the single European currency in the structure of the USD index is 57%, so it is not surprising that the fall in EUR/USD quotes is perceived as the main driver of the XAU/USD peak. Gold is considered to be the anti-dollar. And not only because it is quoted in US currency. According to IMF forecasts, by the end of 2021, the US economy will be 1.5% larger than at the end of 2019, and the GDP of the eurozone will be 3.3% less. At current rates of vaccination, the US will vaccinate 60% of the population against COVID-19 by October, and countries such as Germany and Italy will not be able to do so until the end of 2022. If the EUR/USD upward trend is truly broken, the XAU/USD bulls will have a hard time. Gold fans can count on an increase in the speed of the vaccine campaign in Europe and the fact that the economy of the currency bloc has adapted to the pandemic. There are still chances of a recovery in the upward trend in the main currency pair, so it is too early for bulls on precious metals to lose hope. Technically, a Broadening Wedge pattern may form on the daily gold chart, which will be a strong argument in favor of selling on a breakout of support at $1810-1815 per ounce. On the contrary, the return of futures quotes to the upper boundary of the consolidation range of $1810-1870, followed by its successful assault, is a reason for the formation of long positions. Gold, daily chart 
Trading idea for USD/CAD 2021-02-03  Increased demand for the US dollar pulled USD / CAD out of the downward trend, but the strengthening of oil led to a correction of this impulse, leaving pretty good targets.  So, since the quotes formed a wave pattern (ABC), in which wave A is the bullish initiative observed at the end of January, long positions may be set up from 1.27700 - 1.27300, the target of which is a 50% retracement. Risks should be limited to 1.26500, and then take profit as soon as the quote breaks through 1.28800 and 129600. This transaction has a risk/profit ratio of 1.5:1. Of course, traders still need to carefully assess the situation before placing any position. Trading is very precarious, but profitable as long as the correct strategy is used. The plan above follows Price Action and Stop Hunting methods. Good luck! Wave analysis of EUR/USD for February 3, 2021. Europe's economy contracts less than expected 2021-02-03 
The wave structure of the upward trend still consists of five waves. Meanwhile, the trend that has been forming after it seems to be pretty clear. If the current wave structure is accurate, the quotes will probably fall to the targets set in the area of 1.1900 and 1.1800. However, the formation of the upward trend may well continue or a new trend may begin. 
The wave structure in the shorter time frame also indicates that the upward trend is over. Thus, I still believe that the formation of the downward trend has already started. In fact, two of its waves have already been completed. However, Wave 3 cannot be identified until the price tries to break through the low of Wave 1. Most likely, only three waves of the downward trend will be formed. After that, the upward trend will resume. In fact, the wave structure of the upward trend will become even more complex. Anyway, this is just an assumption. The greenback is still rising. Since the start of 2021, the US dollar has been moving in the uptrend. At the same time, there was no relatively good news in the United States in January. However, news is not all that matters. The current wave structure indicates the downward trend as a correction is needed. The question is what will happen when three waves down will be formed? Yesterday, Europe presented its GDP report for the fourth quarter. The economy contracted by 0.7% compared to the third quarter. Experts had forecast GDP to plunge by 1% and even more. Thus, this is a relatively positive reading of the one hand, but it is still a reduction on the other hand. Meanwhile, the US economy expanded by 4.% according to the last report. It is natural that when one economy is rising and the other one is declining, markets focus on the currency of the country with a growing economy. Consequently, the greenback took the lead from the euro at the beginning of 2021. There is one more question. How long will the US dollar be in the lead? Despite expansion in the third and fourth quarters, the American economy is still struggling to recover. Fed's Jerome Powell repeatedly addressed the situation. Apart from that, President Biden, who has developed his own $1.9 trillion rescue plan, is talking about it now. Thus, the US economy needs more financial aid to continue recovering. Therefore, the circumstances in the US are also far from perfect. Nevertheless, the greenback has been in demand since the start of 2021. Today, traders should focus on the services PMI reports that are set for release in both the US and the UK. Eurozone's inflation data also deserves special attention. The inflation rate in the euro area is estimated to increase to 0.4% year-on-year. Another important event in the US will be the publication of the ADP employment change, which is the second most meaningful labor market report after Non Farm Payrolls. Overall conclusion and trading recommendations: The upward trend on EUR/USD has supposedly come to end. Thus, I recommend that one should sell the instrument with the targets set in the area of 1.2000 and 1.1900 when each new "down" signal of the MACD indicator and taking into account the formation of Wave 3. Wave analysis of EUR/USD for February 3, 2021. Europe's economy contracts less than expected 2021-02-03
The wave structure of the upward trend still consists of five waves. Meanwhile, the trend that has been forming after it seems to be pretty clear. If the current wave structure is accurate, the quotes will probably fall to the targets set in the area of 1.1900 and 1.1800. However, the formation of the upward trend may well continue or a new trend may begin.
The wave structure in the shorter time frame also indicates that the upward trend is over. Thus, I still believe that the formation of the downward trend has already started. In fact, two of its waves have already been completed. However, Wave 3 cannot be identified until the price tries to break through the low of Wave 1. Most likely, only three waves of the downward trend will be formed. After that, the upward trend will resume. In fact, the wave structure of the upward trend will become even more complex. Anyway, this is just an assumption. The greenback is still rising. Since the start of 2021, the US dollar has been moving in the uptrend. At the same time, there was no relatively good news in the United States in January. However, news is not all that matters. The current wave structure indicates the downward trend as a correction is needed. The question is what will happen when three waves down will be formed? Yesterday, Europe presented its GDP report for the fourth quarter. The economy contracted by 0.7% compared to the third quarter. Experts had forecast GDP to plunge by 1% and even more. Thus, this is a relatively positive reading of the one hand, but it is still a reduction on the other hand. Meanwhile, the US economy expanded by 4.% according to the last report. It is natural that when one economy is rising and the other one is declining, markets focus on the currency of the country with a growing economy. Consequently, the greenback took the lead from the euro at the beginning of 2021. There is one more question. How long will the US dollar be in the lead? Despite expansion in the third and fourth quarters, the American economy is still struggling to recover. Fed's Jerome Powell repeatedly addressed the situation. Apart from that, President Biden, who has developed his own $1.9 trillion rescue plan, is talking about it now. Thus, the US economy needs more financial aid to continue recovering. Therefore, the circumstances in the US are also far from perfect. Nevertheless, the greenback has been in demand since the start of 2021. Today, traders should focus on the services PMI reports that are set for release in both the US and the UK. Eurozone's inflation data also deserves special attention. The inflation rate in the euro area is estimated to increase to 0.4% year-on-year. Another important event in the US will be the publication of the ADP employment change, which is the second most meaningful labor market report after Non Farm Payrolls. Overall conclusion and trading recommendations: The upward trend on EUR/USD has supposedly come to end. Thus, I recommend that one should sell the instrument with the targets set in the area of 1.2000 and 1.1900 when each new "down" signal of the MACD indicator and taking into account the formation of Wave 3. Forecast for GBP/USD, February 3. Scottish paradox to lead to isolation from EU for many decades. 2021-02-03 4H chart 
Technical indicators: High Linear Regression Channel: up Low Linear Regression Channel: down The moving average (20; smoothed) – down. CCI: -123.6094 As some traders might have probably noticed, the pound sterling continues to trade according to its own rules. While the European currency in January 2021 at least slightly corrected against its trajectory of 2020, the pound sterling still does not show any signs of correction. The currency is still trading in close proximity to its 2.5-year high. It has been struggling to break above this level for a long time, yet the bullish bias trend does not fizzle. Yesterday, the pound sterling incurred losses. However, the situation may change at any moment as it has been maintained for several months. Besides, some changes are visible on the 4-hour chart. It appears that it does not matter how much the pound sterling falls, the very next day it may recoup its early losses. Investors ignore geopolitical and economic problems in the UK. We have written about them many times, but these thorny issues are sure to affect the UK, pushing the British currency down. Recently, the Scottish question has become more and more acute. We have already written about this paradox and setbacks for Scotland's probable withdrawal from the UK. In 2014, the country held an Independence referendum. Curiously enough, many people voted against departure. However, now, the majority is more inclined to vote for exit. A similar situation occurred in the 2019 parliamentary elections in the UK. People did not vote for Johnson's party, which eventually won the election and gained full power in the country. They voted for an early Brexit as everyone was tired of living in limbo. In the 2020 US presidential election, people voted not for Joe Biden but against Donald Trump. Well, in the Independence referendum in 2014, people voted to remain in the European Union not to remain in the United Kingdom. In Scotland, there have been many books about that referendum and Scottish bad luck. Many authors believe that if the referendum were held now, the result would be the withdrawal from the United Kingdom. The UK is predicted to play a secondary role on the world stage outside the European Union and a gradual collapse. Many experts and political scientists are sure that if not now, then in 5 or 10 years, but Edinburgh will hold the referendum. Meanwhile, the Minister for Constitutional Relations, Michael Russell, believes that the country's first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, can hold a referendum in 2021 and without the consent of Boris Johnson. At the moment, it is not entirely clear how this may happen. However, officials are already considering it. According to the latest opinion polls, about 66% of people in Scotland would now vote to leave the United Kingdom if the referendum were held. If Nicola Sturgeon's party(SNP) wins the May 6 Scottish election, it will further boost the chances of a referendum in 2021. At the same time, British scientists made a statement that the previously identified British strain of the coronavirus mutated and acquired one of the key features of the Brazilian and South African strains, namely, the ability to bypass the immune response of the body. It reduces the effectiveness of the vaccine. British health experts believe mutations are absolutely normal for any virus. Hong Kong residents are packing their bags and heading to the UK. In 2020, we wrote about the conflict between London and Beijing over the latter's adoption of the law on internal security, which diminished all the autonomy of Hong Kong. At the same time, in response to China's illegal actions, London said that it was ready to grant passport holders of British Overseas Territories residence permits in the UK. However, at first, the UK will only issue a five-year visa, which will give the right to live and work. At the end of this period, people can get a residence permit, and then British citizenship. At the same time, it was reported that several million Hong Kong residents have such passports. Since January 31, a special channel has been opened. It enables holders of a British passport to immigrate to the UK. According to the latest opinion polls, about 44% of Hong Kong residents would like to emigrate abroad. Traders also awaiting a very important event. On Thursday, the Bank of England will summarize the results of the first meeting in 2021. Investors are braced for changes in the mood of some members of the monetary committee. It is expected that at least one or two members will vote in favor of lowering the rate. The discussion about the possible introduction of negative rates has been dragging on for more than six months. All this time, the Bank of England and its Governor Andrew Bailey have been repeating that they are considering the possibility of negative rates. However, that they have not been slashed, while the British economy is in great need of stimulus. It means that either the regulator will do it only when there are no tools left or it is still studying the effectiveness. At the beginning of 2021, Andrew Bailey said that negative rates are "very problematic", which stimulated the growth of the pound sterling. However, if the Bank of England still signals its readiness to lower the rate in the near future, the British currency is likely to 
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 103 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is high. On Wednesday, February 3, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3545 and 1.3751. A rise of the Heiken Ashi indicator will signal an upward movement. The nearest support levels: S1 – 1.3641 S2 – 1.3611 S3 – 1.3580 The nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3672 R2 – 1.3702 R3 – 1.3733 Trading recommendation: On the 4H chart, the GBP/USD pair resumed the downward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to open deals near the level of 1.3750 if the Heiken Ashi indicator grows. It is not recommended to open short deals. . EUR/USD: plan for the US session on February 3 (analysis of morning trades) 2021-02-03 To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to: In the first half of the day, there were no signals to enter the market. According to the classics of this week – after the release of good fundamental data, the euro fell, however, the bears failed to push the support level of 1.2018. A few tests and a return to this level also did not lead to the formation of a good buy signal, as trading continued mainly above and below the level of 1.2018, completely confusing all the players' cards. All the emphasis is now placed on the second half of the day and on the data that will be published. 
The goal of the bulls, during the US session, will be the return of the resistance of 1.2053, which they missed yesterday and on which quite a lot depends. However, before talking about the growth of the euro, the bulls will need to make every effort to prevent the breakdown of the new low of 1.2015. Only weak fundamental data on the US economy, together with the formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.05, will lead to the formation of a signal to buy EUR/USD. However, only a return and consolidation at the level of 1.2053 will build a more powerful momentum, which will lead to the recovery of EUR/USD already in the area of the maximum of 1.2088, where I recommend taking the profits. In the event of a further fall in the euro and a lack of activity in the support area of 1.155, I recommend postponing long positions until the test of the minimum of 1.1986. A larger support level is seen in the area of 1.1923, from which you can buy the euro immediately on the rebound with the expectation of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The probability of an upward correction is also indicated by the MACD indicator, on which a bullish divergence is formed. Updating the lows of the day did not lead to the same update of the lows on the indicator. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to: Sellers returned the euro to the support area of 1.05, however, it is not possible to gain a foothold below this range yet. In the second half of the day, the bears will try to maintain control over the level of 1.2053 and in the case of growth, only the formation of a false breakdown there will form a signal to sell the euro in the continuation of the bear market. A more important goal is to break the low of 1.05, where all the downward movement stopped today. A break and consolidation below 1.155 with a test of it from the bottom up forms another signal to sell the euro with an exit to the support of 1.1986, where I recommend fixing the profits. A longer-range target for sellers at the end of the week will be a minimum of 1.1923. In case of recovery of EUR/USD after weak US data and lack of activity in the resistance area of 1.2053, I recommend not to rush to sell. The optimal scenario is to open short positions after the resistance update at 1.2088. However, from this level, you can only expect a small downward correction of 15-20 points within the day. 
Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for January 26 recorded a sharp increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones. The incoming data limits the upward potential of the euro, as does the fact that vaccination in the euro area will take place at a slower pace than expected. This is sure to affect GDP for the 1st quarter of this year, however, it is unlikely to seriously affect the medium-term prospects for the recovery of EUR/USD. With each significant downward correction of the pair, the demand for the euro returns, and the lower the rate, the more attractive it will become for investors. The prospect of lifting the quarantine will keep the market positive in the future. However, the risk of extending the quarantine measures in February of this year is still a deterrent to the growth of the euro. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions increased from the level of 236,533 to the level of 238,099, while short non-profit positions decreased from 73,067 to the level of 72,755. Due to the continued growth of long positions, the total non-commercial net position rose to 165,344 from 163,466 a week earlier. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a fall in the euro in the short term. Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands A break in the lower limit of the indicator will increase the pressure on the euro. A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2053 will lead to a new wave of growth of EUR/USD. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the US session on February 3 (analysis of morning trades) 2021-02-03 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need to: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to sales in the area of the level of 1.3657. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. It is visible how the bears achieve a breakout of the support of 1.3657 and even consolidate below this range, which forms a sell signal. However, the market did not go down from the first time, and after the release of data on activity in the service sector, the British pound temporarily returned above the level of 1.3657, which led to the demolition of stop orders. After some time, the bears again broke below 1.3657, testing this area from the bottom up, which formed another signal to open short positions. At the time of writing, the downward movement was about 30 points, however, we have not yet reached the target level of 1.3612. 
The bulls will try to do everything to achieve a return to the level of 1.3657 in the second half of the day, as the further upward correction of the pair depends on it. Only a break and a test of this area from top to bottom will form a convenient entry point into long positions, which will return GBP/USD to the resistance area of 1.3707, where I recommend taking the profits. This scenario is realized only under the condition of rather weak fundamental statistics on the US economy, which is expected in the second half of the day. In the scenario of a further decline in the pound, it is best not to rush to buy, and wait for the test of the minimum of 1.3612 from where you can open long positions only if a false breakout is formed. If there is no rapid upward movement from this area, it is best to buy GBP/USD for a rebound from the low of 1.3575. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need to: The breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.3657 occurred. As long as the trade is conducted below this range, the pressure on the pound will remain, and the entire calculation will shift to data on activity in the US services sector. The main target of the bears will be the minimum of 1.3612, where the bear market stopped yesterday. Its breakout and a test from the bottom up will only aggravate the situation of GBP/USD, which will lead to a larger wave of the pair falling to the minimum of 1.3575, where I recommend taking the profits. In the scenario of the bulls returning control over the level of 1.3657 in the second half of the day, it is best to wait for a larger recovery of GBP/USD to the resistance area of 1.3706, from where you can open short positions immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a correction of 20-25 points within the day. 
Let me remind you that the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for January 26 recorded an increase in both long and short positions. This time, there were much more sellers, which led to a decrease in the positive delta. The unsuccessful attempts of the bulls to break above the annual highs still do not pass without a trace, forcing traders to increase short positions in the expectation of a more active downward correction of the British pound. Long non-profit positions rose from the level of 45,904 to the level of 47,360. At the same time, the short non-profit jumped from the level of 32,199 to the level of 39,395, which is a very significant increase. As a result, the non-profit net position declined to 7,965 from 13,705 a week earlier. And although traders are trying to take a more wait-and-see position in the area of annual highs, and this is a consequence of the fact that it is very difficult for the bulls to update them, the demand for the pound will still be quite high. As the quarantine measures are lifted, which were strengthened due to the new COVID-19 strain, the upward movement of the GBP/USD pair will be more active. The support of the population and the labor market, which may last until the beginning of the summer of 2021, will also have a positive impact on the British pound. All the talk about negative interest rates on the part of the Bank of England does not yet have a real basis. In the near future, a large report of the English regulator on this topic will be published, which can describe in more detail the picture with the further course of interest rates. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is below 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a further decline in the pound. Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands In the case of an upward correction, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3680 will act as a resistance. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Analysis of Gold for February 03,.2021 - Downside towards $1.803 is expected 2021-02-03 Prior -4.1% - Market index 981.1 vs 907.6 prior
- Purchase index 334.6 vs 334.2 prior
- Refinancing index 4,746.2 vs 4,261.5 prior
- 30-year mortgage rate 2.92% vs 2.95% prior
The jump in the past week owes much to a spike in refinancing activity but purchases in general also continue to hold up. That continues to reflect stronger housing market conditions in general, as has been the case with rates being this low. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that there is still potential for the drop on the Gold and test of $1,803. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,842 Support levels: $1,830 and $1,80 EUR/USD analysis for February 03, 2021 - Breakout of bigger head and shoulders patttern. Pottetnial test of 1.1810 2021-02-03 Prior +0.4% - PPI -1.1% vs -1.2% y/y expected
- Prior -1.9%
Producer prices pick up further towards the end of last year and while that is a positive development in terms of price pressures, this is very much a lagging data point. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that there is still potetnial for the bigger drop on the EUR and test of 1,1810. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2050 Support levels: 1,2810 and 1,1760
Author's today's articles: Pavel Vlasov  No data Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Vyacheslav Ognev  Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle Ivan Aleksandrov  Ivan Aleksandrov Igor Kovalyov  Igor Kovalyov was born on September 24, 1985. Igor graduated from Krasnoyarsk State University with a degree in Philology and Journalism. He has a wide experience as a newspaper and information agency correspondent. He got interested in financial markets in 2001. He also graduated from Moscow State University of Economics, Statistics, and Informatics (MESI) with a degree in Global Economics and then served as an analyst in an investment company. He has been working at InstaForex since 2014. Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Alexander Dneprovskiy  Graduated from Kiev State University of Economics. On Forex market since 2007. Started his work at Forex as a trader. Since 2008 is working as a currency analyst. Stanislav Polyanskiy  Graduated from Odessa State Economic University. On Forex since 2006. Writes analytical reviews about international financial markets for more than 3 years. Worked as a currency analyst in different finance companies for a long time including the biggest companies of Russia and Ukraine. Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"
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