Tuesday, January 5, 2021

SCOOP: Inside the GOP’s strategy to challenge Biden’s win (and the nail biter GA election)

Presented by SoftBank Group: A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news
Jan 05, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO Huddle

By Olivia Beavers

Presented by SoftBank Group

With big assists from Melanie, Sarah and Kyle.

SCOOP: Sen. Ted Cruz and about nine or 10 other senators joined GOP Reps. Mo Brooks (Ala.), Jim Jordan (Ohio) and Andy Biggs (Ariz.) on a 50-minute phone call Monday afternoon to discuss their plans to challenge the Electoral College's votes for President-elect Joe Biden.

Guess what? Your Huddle host has obtained exclusive details of that private planning call. While the plans are not set in stone, here's what they discussed, per a source familiar with the call:

  • The senators appeared to agree to object to three or four state certifications, even though House members are pushing for six: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
  • The lawmakers are primarily focusing their objections on three states: Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, which is the only state that Republicans have so far secured a valid objection with a set House and Senate objector.
  • Senators agreed to raise objections to states with "constitutional deficiencies," so the source noted that might mean Nevada won't make the cut. But the source also noted that the senators wanted to wait and see how the debate and votes go after Pennsylvania, and then Arizona and Georgia before deciding if they will take up other states.
  • While senators appear to be less eager as the House members to make objections, the source noted that efforts like this can snowball in the House and ultimately put pressure on senators.
  • The GOP lawmakers did not discuss how long they wanted to draw out the objection process, but my source tells me that the senators weren't excited about debating past midnight -- though 3USC16 allows for recesses to occur so they think that could solve this issue for them.
  • Lastly, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), was NOT on the phone call, with my source describing him as a "wild card" in this process. Hawley was the first senator to join House Republicans in objecting to Congress' certification.

COOL HEADS, FULL HEARTS, CAN'T LOSE: Congressional Democrats, for their part, have also begun strategizing for Wednesday's lengthy session. House Democrats held a caucus call Monday, where Speaker Nancy Pelosi urged members to be "dignified" throughout the whole process.

Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.), who was tapped by the Biden administration to be White House engagement director, put it more bluntly: "You don't argue with fools, because at a distance you can't tell who the fool is."

ANTI-CERTIFICATION GOP WHIP LIST:

  • Count me out: Republican Sens. Rob Portman (Ohio) and Kevin Cramer (N.D.) separately announced on Monday that they will not be objecting to the Electoral College's election certification.
  • Count me in...at the last minute: It looks like Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) is planning to object to certifying the results of at least one state on Wednesday, news of which came out just one day before her Georgia runoff election. The Fox New exclusive from Brooke Singman: http://fxn.ws/2Lj1XJd

Related reads: Inside McConnell's handling of Trump's election challenge by our very own Burgess and Marianne: http://politi.co/3s4gRnI | Many more in GOP rejecting Trump's bid to undo his defeat by the AP's Lisa Mascaro and Mary Clare Jalonick: http://bit.ly/38chfbC

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GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Jan. 5, where this new music sensation really has some potential for topping the 2021 music charts.

MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Marc Caputo's backstory of Trump's Georgia call in Monday's Playbook edition was the big winner.

SHOUTOUT: Your Huddle host wanted to give a quick shoutout to all the readers who reached out and offered introductions, kind words, pitches/local reporter suggestions, and added yours truly up to their email press lists. Thanks for the community. Whether you are reading Huddle for the inside political scoop or to just stay connected with a family member who works in the Capitol, we are so glad you're Huddling with us each morning. If you haven't already, follow me on Twitter or Instagram for more news and punny jokes.

 

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IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THIS: After months of stumping, countless political TV ads and mailers, and millions upon millions of dollars in record spending, the control of the Senate will finally be determined as the polls open today in the Georgia Senate runoff elections.

Your Huddle host isn't in the prediction making business, but what I *can* tell you is the potential outcomes and what each one would mean for Capitol Hill. Here are the four possible scenarios that will determine the next two years:

Republicans "hold the line":

Republicans are fighting tooth and nail to "hold the line," and protect both of their Georgia seats, both of which have remained in GOP control since 2005.

But more than that, a GOP-controlled Senate is the last firewall Republicans will have with Biden in the White House and a Democrat-controlled House, at least for the next two years. In other words, Republicans have everything to lose and Democrats have everything to gain.

As Democrats can testify before the 2018 midterm election, it isn't fun when the opposing party controls the White House and both chambers of Congress because it means you have no power beyond being squeaky wheels and writing angry letters that quickly wind up in the majority's trash bins.

If Republicans "hold the line" -- a tagline Majority Mitch McConnell has used in Senate ads to rev up voters -- then the GOP could also very well control both chambers in two years, with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy projecting confidence that Republicans can take back control of the lower chamber next election cycle after defying political polls and gaining a net of 10 seats in November.

A two-seat win gives Republicans a little more breathing room on votes where they might face a defection or even an absence of one of their senators. It also means Republicans would maintain some control over the legislative priorities of President-elect Joe Biden is hoping to accomplish.

Republicans toe the line:

If Republicans win either Georgia seat, then they will narrowly hold onto the thinnest possible control of the Senate, setting up a Congress with razor-thin margins in both chambers.

Such margins mean the two parties will have to *gasp* come to the table to get key bipartisan bills passed.

This scenario could shake out in two ways. Sen. David Perdue, who has held the seat since 2015, loses to Democrat John Ossoff; and secondly, incumbent Loeffler, who was appointed to the seat by Trump's latest punching bag, Gov. Brian Kemp, loses to Rev. Raphael Warnock.

If either Perdue or Loeffler lose, their defeat will inevitably be tied to Trump, who flew down Monday night for one last RAH-RAH rally before the ballots are cast. Such an outcome will also serve as a rejuvenating sign for Democrats that Georgia is still very much in play for them.

Republicans fall behind:

If Democrats win both runoff elections, they will secure the magic *minimal* number needed to gain control of the Senate for the first time since 2015… well, technically, that'll be only once Biden takes office. With 50 seats and the help of a tie-breaking vote from soon-to-be Vice President Kamala Harris, Democrats will have the teensiest tiniest edge for party line votes and NO margin for error.

Such a win would be a major political feat, in large part because of the power it will give Democrats after what they have described as the most self-destructive president in modern times (and some argue, of all time).

Need more time:

It is very possible that the counting of votes in a neck-and-neck race means that the public won't yet know which party proves victorious. (Cue the womp, womp, womp...)

Afterall, it took more than a week after Nov. 4 for it to become clear Biden was victorious over Trump.

And if the races prove really, really close -- think the difference of half a percentage point -- then under Georgia law, the candidate who is behind is able to request a recount, thereby starting the counting process over again.

GREAT PRIMER from the NYT's Lisa Lerer: http://nyti.ms/38hID8p

More Related Reads: Trump uses Georgia rally to pressure GOP on Electoral College challenge by our very own Andrew and Matthew Choi: http://politi.co/3oiJn2n | Biden transition hoping for victory but bracing for defeat in Georgia by POLITICO's Tyler Pager and Megan Cassella: http://politi.co/395XYYy | The key questions for Georgia's pivotal U.S. Senate runoff races by the AJC's Greg Bluestein and Patricia Murphy: http://bit.ly/38fBiGr

 

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STUMPED BY TRUMP: Republicans were counting on Trump to be their life vest as they raced to save their endangered Senate majority, but the president offered various -- and even damaging -- messages in the final stretch of the race.

The president has spent the past two months making claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election, including in the Peach state, all before flying to Dalton, Ga. Monday night to encourage his base to vote in elections that he has so vigorously sought to claim are rigged. "I don't do rallies for other people," Trump said last night. "I do rallies for me."

More mixed messages: Trump has turned his ire on GOP Georgia officials who have refused to bow to his pressure, all while Loeffler and Perdue are trying to get the base to come support them.

Apart from the public beratements of Republican officials, Trump has called on Kemp to resign; and most recently, it was revealed in an audio recording that the president sought to pressure Georgia's Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to "find" enough votes to overturn his November defeat. Andrew and James Arkin have the dispatch from Georgia: http://politi.co/2JN7Myg

Related Read: Trump sabotaging GOP on his way out of office with push to overturn election by WaPo's by Philip Rucker, Ashley Parker, Josh Dawsey and Seung Min Kim: http://wapo.st/3hJqAed

NOT A PERFECT CALL: Republicans in both chambers expressed astonishment and discomfort at the news of Trump pressuring Raffensperger, with some GOP lawmakers letting loose with their criticism.

While no Republicans went so far as to describe Trump's behavior as criminal or an impeachable offense, as some Democrats have, Sen. Pat Toomey, who is retiring in 2022, described the hour-long conversation as a "new low in this whole futile and sorry episode."

"I commend Republican election officials across the country who have discharged their duties with integrity over the past two months while weathering relentless pressure, disinformation, and attacks from the president and his campaign," Toomey said.

More from Marianne and Melanie: http://politi.co/3ncKMGE

MEANWHILE … 90 Democrats have signed on to a resolution, led by Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.), that would censure Trump over the controversial phone call. A full list of names here: https://bit.ly/2XaMfT7

FIRST IN HUDDLE: Top House Republicans are going after Pelosi over what they allege is a double standard of implementing Covid guidance and then ignoring it when politically expedient, citing the speaker's vote on Sunday as the latest offense.

The Republicans argue that the logistics of the Sunday speaker vote, which they said were issued at Pelosi's direction by the House Sergeant of Arms and Attending Physician, were completely abandoned, citing overcrowding of hundreds of members on the House floor and the construction of plexiglass structure within the House chamber.

McCarthy, Minority Whip Steve Scalise, Republican Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney, and Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), the top Republican on the House Administration Committee wrote: "Despite the science not changing, the guidelines we operated under for your election as Speaker did."

The plexiglass was a real sticking point: "If truly constructed for everyone's safety, it would have been coordinated and communicated to everyone ahead of time. The reality is, it was built because it was politically beneficial to have members vote on your behalf for Speaker," they added.

Not so fast: Democrats, however, have blamed an unexpected GOP procedural vote for Sunday's session becoming chaotic, which forced members to gather in masses on the House floor and flout social distancing protocols. Dems also point out that it was Republican members of Congress who were refusing to wear masks on the House floor.

Read the full letter here: https://politi.co/391QoOL

 

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AND SO IT BEGINS...Pelosi this week won the gavel for perhaps the final time of her career. That will mean, of course, that the informal maneuvering to replace her and her top two deputies is beginning.

Pelosi and the caucus have a lot of pressing matters on their mind beyond her eventual successor. Still, Dem lawmakers and aides say the 117th Congress will likely see some of the inevitable tension that will arise between the most powerful speaker in a lifetime and the Democrats looking to carve out their own path.

Who's next? Lawmakers and aides are eying a handful of possible contenders so far: Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries, former Black Caucus Chairwoman Karen Bass, House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff for speaker. Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark, Vice Chair Pete Aguilar and Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal.

The timing of Pelosi's decision remains a secret, even to her close allies in Congress. In private meetings, Pelosi has given no indication of her timeline or thinking behind her departure, though she has hinted publicly at leaving after this term. And several Democrats predicted when Pelosi does choose to leave, she will do it on her terms and it will be a surprise to most. Heather and Sarah with the story: http://politi.co/3nmEcgU

DOOM AND GLOOM: The first week of a new Congress is supposed to be an overwhelming celebratory experience, but three lingering threats have cast a cloud over the Capitol: The threat of violence. The threat of the virus. The threat to democracy.

Lawmakers are grappling with an unprecedented mix of dangers on the job, including fears that pro-Trump rallies could turn violent, all while a deadly pandemic rages on. The president himself said he plans to attend. But he won't be alone. In addition to some of his most loyal Hill allies and other MAGA world figures who are also slated to speak at Wednesday's "stop the steal" rally, far-right groups such as the Proud Boys are also expected to be out there demonstrating.

"I am very concerned about violence. Frankly, I'm saying that because I'm African American. ... Understand, I'm not saying this as a legislator," Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) told POLITICO.

On top of that , members of both parties are confronting an entirely different threat that could have far reaching consequences: a historic effort by a growing band of Republicans to overturn Biden's presidential victory on the floors of Congress. All together, these various matters are creating a MOOD, a tense one, as some lawmakers just brace in the hopes that they will avert disaster. Melanie, Sarah and Kyle with the latest: http://politi.co/2X7Ji5X

Related Read: Texas Congresswoman Kay Granger tests positive for coronavirus from Texas Tribune's Alex Samuels: http://bit.ly/3ohyTQP

I GOT NEW RULES, I COUNT 'EM: House Democrats on Monday approved a set of rules that will substantially alter the minority party's powers on the floor, offering a key indication of how the caucus will manage its tightest majority in the new Congress. The vote — unsurprisingly, entirely along party lines — also includes key changes to the caucus's Pay-As-You-Go rule that had long been demanded by progressives.

The final package is the result of weeks of talks between the CPC and the Blue Dog Coalition, one of the first big tests of intracaucus cooperation. Notably, both sides say they've walked away as winners. The Congressional Progressive Caucus hailed the "critical reforms," which will now exempt all climate change and pandemic relief bills from the House rule requiring all bills to be paid for. Moderates, meanwhile, are touting the fact that only two categories are exempt, though progressives had initially wanted many more kinds of bills exempt, including those related to housing and student debt.

The Blue Dog Coalition also sent a letter to House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth after the vote, making clear that they and other members could still oppose efforts to exempt certain bulls from PAYGO on the floor by voting against the rule. (Bookmark this for future floor battles.)

The only not-so-happy campers are Republicans , like Scalise, who said the bill intended to "silence conservative voices" by tweaking a key part of the minority tool known as the motion to recommit. (Progressives had sought to change that, too, after moderates repeatedly bucked their party on the procedural vote and caused headaches on some major bills.)

WOWZA WHITE HOUSE STATEMENT ON NUNES: https://bit.ly/3pQuwNe

ROCK OUT WITH YOUR GLOCK OUT: Freshman Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) has publicly declared her intention to carry a Glock handgun to work, a key tenet of her insurgent bid for Congress. But the comments drew the attention Monday of Washington D.C.'s police chief Robert Contee III, who said he intended to reach out to her office and ensure she is aware of the district's strict firearms possession laws. Kyle has the details: https://politi.co/2LoayKx

RASKIN'S TOUCHING TRIBUTE: Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and his wife, Sarah Bloom Raskin, announced last week that their son, "Tommy" Bloom Raskin, had passed away around the start of the New Year. On Monday, the Raskins paid a beautiful tribute to Tommy, who died from suicide after struggling with depression:

"Tommy Raskin had a perfect heart , a perfect soul, a riotously outrageous and relentless sense of humor, and a dazzling radiant mind."

"He began to be tortured later in his 20s by a blindingly painful and merciless 'disease called depression,' ... a kind of relentless torture in the brain for him, and despite very fine doctors and a loving family and friendship network of hundreds who adored him beyond words and whom he adored too, the pain became overwhelming and unyielding and unbearable at last for our dear boy, this young man of surpassing promise to our broken world."

The full tribute: http://bit.ly/2JPn71k

Please remember the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline, especially if you or anyone you know is struggling: 800-273-8255

TRANSITIONS

Gloria Nlewedim is the new comms director for Rep. Cori Bush. Nlewedim previously served as the digital director for the House Appropriations Committee.

Clarissa Robles is now the press secretary/digital director for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

Hannah Anderson is now scheduler for Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.). She previously was a war room analyst for the Trump campaign.

Britteny Jenkins is now COS for Rep. Rashida Tlaib. She was previously the Staff Director of the Oversight and Reform Committee's Subcommittee on Environment.

Alex Ginis has been promoted to be COS for Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.). He most recently was Hayes' legislative director.

Hillary Beard has been promoted to be chief of staff for Rep. Terri Sewell (D-Ala.). She most recently was Sewell's legislative director.

Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), the top R on Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC), announced his senior staff today: Pam Thiessen will serve as staff director, Andy Dockham as chief counsel and deputy staff director, Amanda Neely as director of governmental affairs and general counsel to the senator, Kirsten Madison as director of homeland security, and Emily Benavides as comms director.

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House meets at noon to consider legislation like the "Congressional Budget Justification Transparency Act of 2021" and the "Inspector General Protection Act."

The Senate is adjourned until 12:30 p.m. on Wednesday.

AROUND THE HILL

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) holds his weekly pen and pad with reporters via conference call at 11 a.m.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) holds a video news conference at 2:30 p.m. to discuss the introduction of the "Health Force, Resilience Force, and Jobs to Fight COVID-19 Act," which seeks to "aid the country's lagging vaccine distribution campaign."


TRIVIA


MONDAY'S WINNER: Stefani Koorey was the first person to guess that the tradition of the White House New Year's reception started in the year 1802 under President John Adams.

TODAY'S QUESTION : From Stefani: How many secretaries of Energy have there been since the position was first created (not counting acting heads) and who was the only head of this cabinet position to be from Fall River, Massachusetts?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answer to obeavers@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

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