| | | | | |  | | By Marc Caputo | Presented by Facebook | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Good morning from Atlanta. This is it, Election Day in Georgia: double-header runoff races that will decide control of the U.S. Senate, the health of JOE BIDEN'S agenda and outgoing President DONALD TRUMP'S standing as a GOP savior or scourge. Trump's the rampaging elephant in the china shop of Georgia politics, spending an election eve rally ranting about baseless voter fraud claims that were pre-butted by a top Republican state election official weary of playing conspiracy theory Whac-A-Mole. Conventional wisdom holds that a GOP house divided — by Trump's "find the votes" election call, and by his relentless attacks on some of the state's top elected Republicans — can't stand. But conventional wisdom isn't always right. First off, there's a theory that Trump's base is uniquely fired up by him getting in fights; angry establishment figures, unflattering headlines and criminal investigations of Trump are all fuel. More broadly, Georgia is a red shade of purple. Republican Sen. DAVID PERDUE won 88,000 more votes than Democrat JON OSSOFF on Nov. 3 — the race only went to a runoff because Perdue fell just shy of 50 percent to win outright. The Sen. KELLY LOEFFLER vs. RAPHAEL WARNOCK race was more complicated, but the GOP contenders in the multi-candidate "jungle primary" received more votes than the Democratic ones. So how do Democrats win here in this once ruby-red state? Here are four key benchmarks Georgia insiders are watching: 1. Strong Black voter turnout. This is happening now. African-American voters, who overwhelmingly back Democrats and have the chance to elect the South's first Black Democratic senator in Warnock, make up 30 percent of the overall voter rolls in Georgia and so far they've cast almost 31 percent of the early in-person votes and absentee ballots, according to the website Georgia Votes. The Democratic firm TargetSmart , which models the state's voter file and has slightly higher proportions of Black voters, determined that Black voters cast nearly 33 percent of the early ballots as of Monday, 3 points more than at the same point in November. 2. Weak Trump voter turnout. While Black voters are turning out in high numbers, voters in Trump strongholds aren't matching them. That's why the president held his rally Monday night in Dalton, home to QAnon Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, where the relative paucity of pre-Election Day ballots is concerning the GOP. There's a reason Loeffler pledged at Trump's Dalton rally to oppose the Electoral College vote Wednesday confirming Biden's win. TargetSmart's data also show that white voters without college degrees statewide are underperforming relative to this point in the November elections. 3. Suburban ticket-splitters. This is a small but hard-to-measure group, but they're generally modeled as white, suburban and moderate, and they were crucial for Biden, especially in the Atlanta suburbs . They helped Biden beat Trump by 11,799 votes, but many then voted for Perdue, and another 46,000 who voted in the presidential race just didn't cast ballots in the Senate contest. It's a sign of anti-Trump bias in the suburbs, but it doesn't look like a pro-Democrat vote. 4. Total Election Day turnout. Depending on whom you ask in Georgia political circles, the Democratic candidates could be ahead by anywhere from 130,000 to 200,000 votes when all the early ballots are tabulated. So Republicans start the day down, but their voters are more likely to show on Election Day (Perdue lost the early vote by 127,000 but won Election Day by 215,000 in November). Republicans say that a total Election Day turnout of 700,000 voters would probably mean the Democrats would win, and 900,000 voters would likely mean the GOP has the edge. So 800,000 looks like the water line. As of now, the state is on pace for about 770,000 Election Day voters (that's based on the idea that Election Day voting will be down by the same proportion as early voting when compared to the November elections). | | | | A message from Facebook: It's time to update internet regulations
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Learn More | | | ON THE GROUND — "Thousands of Atlanta Ballots at Risk Ahead of Pivotal Georgia Senate Runoffs as Mail Delays Drag On," NBCLX: "According to the most recent USPS filings in federal court, the agency was processing just 76% of ballots on-time, as of Dec. 21, in their Atlanta metro region, which covers most of the northern – and most populated – half of the Peach State. "That means some ballots mailed by Georgia voters 3-5 days before this week's run-off elections – and even some ballots mailed prior to New Year's — may not make it to elections offices before the state's Jan. 5 deadline for the votes to count." THE STAKES — "Biden transition hoping for victory but bracing for defeat in Georgia," by Tyler Pager and Megan Cassella: "Biden's advisers are privately skeptical about Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock's chances, Democrats say. And though confidants say that the incoming team's core priorities for that 100-day agenda will remain the same regardless of the outcome — the pandemic, the recession, climate change and racial inequality — they concede that the scale of their plans could change dramatically come Tuesday evening. … "Regardless of the outcome, Biden's top legislative priority will be a stimulus package aimed at distributing funds for states to vaccinate Americans, among other Covid-related priorities. … Items that stand a chance of passage under a Democratic Senate, such as an ambitious government ethics reform package previously crafted by House Democrats, will go nowhere if the Senate is still run by Sen. Mitch McConnell." ABOUT LAST NIGHT — "Trump and Biden square off in Georgia on eve of epic Senate runoffs," Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "At a drive-in rally at a parking lot surrounding old Turner Field, Biden tied the hopes of Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock to the fate of his legislative agenda … "Despite his attacks on the elections in Georgia, and a litany of complaints and accusations he listed about votes he claimed were illegally cast in November, Trump also urged Republicans to vote Tuesday. … Just as Trump mentioned Loeffler and Perdue, the crowd erupted in chants of 'Fight for Trump!'" HOT FOX VIDEO — Bret Baier faced off against Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) Monday night in a testy interview. ALEX ISENSTADT: "Trump's Electoral College scheme divides 2024 GOP successors": "While Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are setting themselves up as the chief spokesmen for challenging certification of the Electoral College vote, aligning themselves with President Donald Trump, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse are staking out the opposite turf. Other Republicans, like Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and Vice President Mike Pence, are playing it safe and saying little. "The debate underscores how fealty to Trump — who might run again himself in 2024 — has emerged as the defining battle line in the fight over the Republican Party's future. While past primaries have revolved around hot-button issues like health care or immigration, the forthcoming contest is being propelled, so far, by a single question: How loyal should one be to Trump?" MCCONNELL'S LIGHT TOUCH — "Inside McConnell's handling of Trump's election challenge," by Burgess Everett and Marianne Levine: "Mitch McConnell explicitly warned Senate Republicans not to challenge Joe Biden's presidential win. But now that a dozen of his members are going there, the GOP leader is taking his thumb off the scale. … "[S]enators and aides say he is not actively whipping his members to side against Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who are leading the electoral objections in the Senate. Instead, he's offering guidance when it's sought, fielding calls from at least half the Senate GOP conference." THE LOYAL SOLDIER'S LOYALTY TEST — AP looks at how VP MIKE PENCE is confronting "the most precarious position of his tenure." LET THE JOCKEYING BEGIN! — "Democrats start to eye a post-Pelosi era," by Heather Caygle and Sarah Ferris: "The dynamic could turn awkward over the next two years as younger members begin maneuvering to seize their shot at the top while trying not to alienate the leader they all want to replace. Pelosi still hasn't definitively said this is her last term but has signaled as much, and is eager to seal her legacy without losing any leverage. … "Democrats are already closely watching the small cadre of their colleagues whose names have been floated for the top jobs, including Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries, former Black Caucus Chair Karen Bass, and House Intelligence Chair Adam Schiff for speaker. Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark, Vice Chair Pete Aguilar and Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal are all also mentioned for high ranking positions." CORONAVIRUS CONTINUES TO RAGE … 20.8 million Americans have tested positive. … 354,000 have died. — "U.S. health officials say they plan to stick with two-dose coronavirus regimen," WaPo: "In recent days, some public health experts have debated whether it is worth taking a scientific gamble by altering the two-dose regimen that proved highly effective in trials to maximize the number of people partially protected with at least one shot as the pandemic surges. … "The Food and Drug Administration on Monday evening said it would be 'premature' and 'not rooted solidly in the available evidence' to change the way the two authorized vaccines are administered." — WHAT IT'S COME TO: "Ambulance crews told not to transport patients who have little chance of survival," L.A. Times | | | |   | | | TRUMP'S TUESDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule. Pence will lead a coronavirus task force meeting at 2:15 p.m. in the Situation Room. — BIDEN and VP-elect KAMALA HARRIS will meet with transition advisers. Programming note: You'll notice some guest writers as we prepare to officially relaunch Playbook on Jan. 19. In the meantime, we also want to hear from you: What do you love most about Playbook? How could we be more valuable to you? Let us know — we'll read every submission. | | | | GET THE BIG PRE-INAUGURATION SCOOPS IN TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: Inauguration Day is quickly approaching. Is the Biden administration ready? Transition Playbook brings you inside the transition and newly forming administration, tracking the latest from Biden world and the transition of power. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news and analyzes the appointments, people and emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | 
PHOTO DU JOUR: Activists demonstrate in support of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis., on Monday ahead of an expected announcement today on whether the police officer who shot him will be charged. | Scott Olson/Getty Images | "The system was blinking red." That was the famous description that George Tenet, the head of the CIA, used after 9/11 to describe the warning signs from analysts — "deep state operatives" in modern parlance — in the summer of 2001. No, Donald Trump and the band assisting him in trying to overturn the 2020 election results are not terrorists. But in a different context — the threat level to American democracy — the system is again blinking red. Business leaders, defense secretaries and former military leaders, historians, conservative columnists, and strait-laced newspaper reporters are united with concern that exceeds any period of Trump's presidency. Here's a survey of statements just from Monday: "All of us [the 10 living defense secretaries] came to the same conclusion that we are in danger, that we have a commander-in-chief who is not above trying to use the military in order to achieve a political objective." — William Cohen on CNN on Monday night "Efforts by some members of Congress to disregard certified election results in an effort to change the election outcome or to try to make a long-term political point undermines our democracy and the rule of law…" — Statement from U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Thomas J. Donohue "This presidential election has been decided and it is time for the country to move forward. President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris have won the Electoral College and the courts have rejected challenges to the electoral process. Congress should certify the electoral vote on Wednesday, January 6. Attempts to thwart or delay this process run counter to the essential tenets of our democracy." — Statement from some 200 business leaders "As historians and constitutional scholars as well as citizens, we deplore the effort to disrupt Congressional certification of the results of the 2020 presidential election. Never before in our history has a president who lost re-election tried to stay in office by subverting the democratic process set down by the Constitution." — Statement from 22 historians and constitutional scholars | | | |   | | | | "President Trump's relentless effort to overturn the result of the election that he lost has become the most serious stress test of American democracy in generations, one led not by outside revolutionaries intent on bringing down the system but by the very leader charged with defending it … Mr. Trump and his staff have floated the idea of delaying Mr. Biden's inauguration, even though it is set in stone by the Constitution … Mr. Trump's efforts ring familiar to many who have studied authoritarian regimes in countries around the world, like those run by President Vladimir V. Putin in Russia and Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Hungary." — NYT "Trump advisers said he is especially bothered … that two Republican politicians he thought would do his bidding, Kemp and Raffensperger, refuse to try to rig the result in his favor." — WaPo "[O]n Wednesday, the members of the Hawley-Cruz cohort will violate the oath of office in which they swore to defend the Constitution from enemies 'foreign and domestic.' They are its most dangerous domestic enemies." — George F. Will in WaPo The contrary view comes from Hugh Hewitt, who argued Monday that all of these intellectuals and elites terrified that the Trump-Hawley-Gohmert Republicans are subverting democracy are "overwrought actors in the never-ending Trump Derangement Syndrome-fueled drama among the Never Trump rump of Republicans and deeply partisan Democrats." Perhaps he's correct, but their ranks do seem to be growing fast. There's not much of a middle ground here. Either you believe we are witnessing a historic subversion of American democracy or you believe, as Hewitt does, that "any process allowed by law is never a crisis." And therefore that the constitutionally prescribed objecting that will happen on Wednesday may be regrettable but isn't a threat to the Republic. Hope he's right! | | | | A NEW YEAR MEANS A NEW HUDDLE IS HERE: Huddle, our daily congressional must-read, has a new author! Olivia Beavers took the reins this week, and she has the latest news and whispers from the Speakers' Lobby. Don't miss out, subscribe to our Huddle newsletter, the essential guide to all things Capitol Hill. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com. "Please forgive me. My illness won today." Those were the parting words of Tommy Raskin, the brilliant son of Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and Sarah Bloom Raskin, who died on New Year's Eve. Take a moment to read this tribute to him that the couple posted Monday. No single excerpt does it justice, but we appreciated and related to this sentiment: "He hated cliques and social snobbery, never had a negative word for anyone but tyrants and despots, and opposed all malicious gossip, stopping all such gossipers with a trademark Tommy line — 'forgive me, but it's hard to be a human.'" YAHOO'S HUNTER WALKER excavates a little-known piece of political history with this profile of Judy Smith, the first Black woman to lead a White House briefing, in 1991, and later an inspiration for the TV show "Scandal." (Bonus: Read our Birthday of the Day interview with her from October!) MEDIAWATCH — Jonathan Capehart is joining PBS NewsHour as a regular contributor. He currently is a WaPo opinion writer and anchor of MSNBC's "The Sunday Show with Jonathan Capehart." The announcement — NYT: "The Cut, the New York Magazine style and culture website with a devoted following, named Lindsay Peoples Wagner as its new editor in chief on Monday. Ms. Peoples Wagner, 30, will rejoin the publication after a two-year stint as the top editor of Teen Vogue, where she was the youngest editor in chief of a Condé Nast magazine and one of the few Black journalists to have led one of the company's publications." TRANSITIONS — Kevin Benacci is now a VP in Targeted Victory's corporate practice. He previously was chief external affairs officer at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. … Whitney Robertson is now deputy press secretary for America Rising. She previously was assistant press secretary for the Trump campaign. … Rebekah Hoshiko is now comms director for the House Natural Resources Committee. She previously was comms director for Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.). … … Senate Homeland Security ranking member Rob Portman (R-Ohio) is adding Pam Thiessen as staff director, Andy Dockham as chief counsel and deputy staff director, Amanda Neely as director of governmental affairs and general counsel, Kirsten Madison as director of homeland security and Emily Benavides as comms director. Thiessen, Dockham, Neely and Benavides previously worked for Portman. Madison previously was assistant secretary of State for international narcotics and law enforcement affairs. … Matt Lloyd is now deputy COS and comms director in Portman's personal office. He previously was principal deputy director of public affairs at DOJ. ENGAGED — Alex Fox, executive assistant to Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), and Blair Mallin, director of scheduling for Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), got engaged. Blair proposed along the water in Georgetown on Saturday, and Alex proposed in St. Michael's on Monday. They first met as schedulers for California members of Congress in 2017, and then realized they were more than friends — and in fact in love — a couple of years later. Pic … Another pic BIRTHWEEK (was Monday): Maggie Abboud, NRCC deputy press secretary (h/t brother Mike) BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Kristen Grimm, president at Spitfire Strategies. A trend she thinks doesn't get enough attention: "The need for public interest technology as a robust field that permeates society. We cannot rely on tech companies to create software and products that serve the public interest if the higher ups in those companies don't have a good understanding of what the public interest is and how to protect it." Playbook Q&A BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) is 51 … Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine is 74 … David Simas, CEO of the Obama Foundation, is 51 … Allison Price … WSJ's Nick Timiraos … Nick Lanyi … Gautam Raghavan, incoming deputy director of the Office of Presidential Personnel (h/t Mitchell Rivard) … Ally Flinn, web editor at the Cook Political Report … Mimi Mager … Alexis Bataillon (h/ts Jon Haber) … RNC's Mandi Merritt … Caroline Anderegg … former Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) is 72 … former Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-Conn.) is 86 … former Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.) is 77 … Competitive Enterprise Institute's Christine Hall … Danielle Melfi … Thad Nation (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … Niskanen Center's Matthew La Corte … Walter Ludwig, managing partner at Indigo Strategies (h/t Sophia Silbergeld) … … former VP Walter Mondale is 93 … John Solomon … former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell is 77 … Pedro Ribeiro … Shab Sharbatoghlie … former CIA Director George Tenet is 68 … Katie Lillie … Peter Tichansky, BCIU president and CEO (h/t Pete Nonis) … Joe Wineke … David Bauder … Sruti Ramadugu ... Josh Galper is 49 … Majid Siddiqui … Andrew Mills … Bush alum Carrie Underwood … Jessie Torres Perkins … Richard Harris … Jeff Hauser … Nash Jenkins … Mercury's Jake Dilemani … Allison Biasotti … Val Mack … Karen Gray Houston … Thomas Suddes … Daniel Sieberg is 49 … John Drogin … Tom Youngblood … Veronica Vaquer … Sharon Scates … John Reid … Lara Bergthold … Patrick Ottenhoff … Sara Throener … German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is 65 | | | | A message from Facebook: Internet regulations need an update
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