| Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on January 5, 2021 2021-01-05 At yesterday's trading, the main currency pair of the Forex market again tried to rise above the level of 1.2300, however, the euro bulls again failed. Thus, the mark of 1.2300 continues to provide strong resistance to the ongoing growth and remains unconquered. Meanwhile, a real battle is taking place in the United States of America for the Senate, which is still under Republican control. The state of Georgia was visited by the current President Trump, who at the rally made it clear that he might return to the presidential chair. Also, Donald Trump said that it is no good when you steal the victory in the presidential election. Although Trump has lost almost all the courts on claims of voting fraud in the US presidential election, he continues to claim that he was robbed of victory and the election was won by him, and not by his Democratic opponent Joe Biden. Well, maybe this is true, but in a few weeks the victorious Biden will take office, and Trump will have nothing left to do but leave the Oval Office of the White House. In the European Union, the problems are quite different, where no one is contesting any elections because of their absence. The main topic for the European Union is the vaccination of the population against the COVID-19 pandemic. So far, this process is very slow. It is enough to give an example that in France over 500 people were vaccinated for a whole week. The figure is so small that it does not even need additional comments. Daily 
Well, it's time to move on to the technical picture for the EUR/USD currency pair. As mentioned at the beginning of the article, at yesterday's trading, the euro bulls again tested a strong resistance level of 1.2309 and again failed. As a result, a candle with a small bullish body appeared on the daily chart, however, the upper shadow of this candle is very large. Usually, such candles indicate the inability to continue growth and lead to a change in the trend. We'll see what happens this time. Likely, the fundamental indicators that will come from the United States this week will have a strong say. First of all, this is data on the labor market for the last month of last year. However, in addition to nonfarms, market participants will have to digest the production index of the Institute for Supply Management, which will be published today, at 16:00 London time. And on Thursday, attention should be paid to the index of business activity in the service sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). As for the purely technical picture, after the appearance of yesterday's candle, the chances of bulls and bears are approximately equal. I recommend considering purchases after a decline in the area of 1.2240, with targets not higher than 1.2300, and it is better to limit the profit to 1.2270/80. Sales should be considered if a bearish candlestick analysis pattern appears below 1.2300 on the four-hour or hourly charts. That's all for now. If the situation for EUR/USD changes, the necessary adjustments for the possible opening of positions will be made in tomorrow's article. Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on January 5, 2021 2021-01-05 If the single European currency managed to show a very small growth at yesterday's trading, then the British pound fell significantly against the US dollar. Tougher restrictions from the COVID-19 pandemic, which do not bode well for the British economy, appear to have overshadowed the trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union. As it became known, despite the beginning of vaccination with the Oxford/AstraZeneca drug, the UK government has already introduced a third and tougher lockdown. The new restrictions will come into force from tomorrow, however, investor sentiment towards the British currency is hopelessly damaged. The vast majority of educational institutions in the UK will be closed, and students will switch to distance learning. The situation with coronavirus infections is particularly difficult in Scotland, and if we take into account the emergence of a new British strain of COVID-19, things in the British Kingdom are very far from stable. Daily 
After yesterday's initial rise to the level of 1.3700, information about the tightening of quarantine measures completely changed the mood of investors to the British pound, and it fell under a fairly strong wave of sales. As a result, a very impressive bearish candle appeared on the daily chart with a closing price of 1.3569. It seems that now it will be much harder for the pound bulls to resume the growth of the quote, not to mention the true breakdown of strong resistance in the area of 1.3700. Nevertheless, the main fundamental events of this week are still ahead, and much will be decided on Friday when data on the labor market of the United States of America will be published. In the meantime, the pound/dollar pair is mostly dominated by bearish sentiment, however, the situation in the foreign exchange market is changing so quickly that you can expect anything. Today's attempts of bulls on the pound to return the rate to the upward dynamics were limited at 1.3611, after which the pair turned in a southerly direction and is trading near 1.3555 at the end of this article. In my opinion, the main trading recommendation will be considered sales after short-term rises in the price area of 1.3600-1.3630. This idea will be confirmed if reversal patterns of candlestick analysis appear in the designated area on lower time frames. H1 
In the meantime, I recommend paying attention to the strong support level of 1.3537, slightly above which is the hourly 200 exponential moving average. If bullish candlestick patterns appear in the area of 1.3540, this will be a signal to open long positions on GBP/USD. Sales, as already emphasized above, should be considered after a pullback to the price zone of 1.3600-1.3620, where the broken support line of the abandoned ascending channel passes, as well as the 50 simple moving average. More aggressively and riskily, you can try to sell the pair after another rise to the black 89 exponential, which currently passes at 1.3592 and provides the nearest resistance to the price. From the macroeconomic statistics that may affect the course of trading on GBP/USD, I recommend paying attention to the production index of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) of the United States, which will be published at 16:00 London time. Trading plan for EUR/USD on January 5. 2021-01-05 
Although global incidence has declined, the situation is still pretty bad both in the US and the UK. But on the bright side, vaccination is active in many countries. For example, after the weekend, the pace has accelerated in Europe. In Israel, 14% of its population have been vaccinated already. However, since there are many new cases recorded (about 5,000 yesterday), the government might impose quarantine soon. 
EUR / USD - the euro pulled back sharply yesterday, together with the US market. Maintain long positions, but be ready to open shorts at 1.2210. Trading idea for the EUR/USD pair 2021-01-05  EUR / USD closed with a pin bar yesterday, as a result of which, a good area has been determined, where traders could open short positions in the market.  Lately, most of the American sessions closed negatively, indicating that traders are buying up US dollars. The price movements yesterday confirm this scenario.  In that regard, it is best to short the EUR / USD pair, following this strategy:  Since the quotes have formed three wave patterns (ABC), in which wave A is the movement observed yesterday, open short positions in the market, the risk of which is at 20-30 pips, while the profit is at 50 pips. Of course, traders have to monitor the risk to avoid losing money. Trading is very precarious, but also profitable as long as the right approach is used. The above strategy uses Price Action and Stop Hunting as bases. Good luck! Analysis of Gold for January 05,.2021 - Stonng upside momentum and potential test of our major target at $1.960 2021-01-05 UK's Sunak: Will set out next stage of economic response in March Comments by UK finance minister, Rishi Sunak - March budget will be excellent opportunity to take stock
- Will lay out next steps on virus support measures at March budget
This follows the earlier announcement of additional grants totaling £4.6 billion to aid businesses amid the third national lockdown in the UK. Just keep in mind the timing, as the UK likes to coordinate efforts between the government and the central bank - so this could lend to some possibility of the BOE acting as well. For now though, the money market has fully priced in a 10 bps rate cut by the BOE by August as compared to November previously last week. The timeframe in which implied rates turn negative has moved up to May as compared to June previously though. 
Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that the Gold is heading to test our major targets at the price of $1,960 and $1,965. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Natural Gas and Platinum today and on the bottom Ethanol and Feeder Cattle. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,960 Support level: $1,948 (previous day high) EUR/USD analysis for January 05 2021 - Pottential for the uspide swing towards 1.2300-1.2340 2021-01-05 Is inflation ready to make a comeback? Morgan Stanley seems to think so The reflation/inflation theme is going to be a key topic for the market this year but the big question remains, is it really coming back? Well, at least Morgan Stanley says it is. The firm argues that US core PCE inflation will overshoot 2% this cycle, highlighting that the divergence in their view from the consensus being the assumption surrounding strength of private sector risk appetite. "Our views on inflation, as on growth, are more bullish than the consensus. Since 3 April 2020, we have argued that a V-shaped recovery in growth would unfold and in May 2020, we warned that inflation will make a return this cycle. Since then, our conviction has only increased. Our GDP growth forecast of 5.9% y/y for the US in 2021 is significantly above consensus estimates at 3.9% y/y. We see US core PCE inflation ending the year at 2% y/y and staying above 2% on a sustained basis from 2022. In contrast, the consensus sees it reaching 2% over a longer timeframe and is skeptical that inflation will exceed 2% for a sustained period." There's going to be a lot of debate on this matter but if there's one side of the camp that has been wrong more often than not in recent years, it is the inflationistas. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that EUR got potential for the another upside swing. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Natural Gas and Platinum today and on the bottom Ethanol and Feeder Cattle. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2300 and 1,2340 Support level: 1,2240 Technical analysis of Gold 2021-01-05 As we mentioned yesterday Gold price broke above key resistance. This was a major bullish signal and we expect Gold price to continue higher towards $1,980-$2,000 area. 
Red line - support trend line Horizontal red lines - Fibonacci extensions Gold price is making higher highs. Bulls are targeting $1,980 area and as long as price is above the red support trend line we remain bullish. Support is at $1,890. Bulls are in full control of the trend as long as price is above this level. Resistance is now found at $1,950 and next at $1,980. Gold is in a short-term bullish trend. The November low is a key low for the medium-term trend.
Author's today's articles: Ivan Aleksandrov  Ivan Aleksandrov Mihail Makarov  - Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work" Alexandros Yfantis  Alexandros was born on September 14, 1978. He graduated from the ICMA Centre, University of Reading with the MSc in International Securities, investment and Banking in 2001. In 2000, Alexandros got the BSc in Economics and Business Finance from Brunel University, UK. In 2004, he began trading on the Greek stock market, where Alexandros got a specialization in international derivatives. Alexandros Yfantis has worked in a top financial company in Greece, responsible for the day-to-day running of the International markets department. He is a certified Portfolio Manager and a certified Derivatives Trader. Alexandros is also a contributor and analyst using Elliott wave and technical analysis of global financial markets. In 2007, he started Forex trading. He loves his profession and believes that entering a trade should always be accompanied by money management rules. His goal is to find profitable opportunities across the markets while minimizing risk and maximizing potential profit. "I'm still learning" Michelangelo
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