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The best broker in Asia www.instaforex.com Daily analysts mail subscription EUR/USD: plan for the European session on January 5. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Euro buyers do not have enough strength to overcome last year's high 2021-01-05 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Several rather interesting signals to enter the market appeared yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break it down. The bulls took the 1.2267 level in the first half of the day after the release of reports on manufacturing activity in the eurozone countries were released. I have highlighted the area on the chart, where the signal to buy the euro was created after the breakout and how the price settled above this range. The growth amounted to around 30 points to the resistance area of 1.2304, where I recommended taking profit. The bears formed an excellent false breakout of the 1.2304 level during the US session and returned EUR/USD under it, which led to forming an excellent entry point into short positions. The first downward wave resulted in returning the quote to the support area of 1.2267, where I recommended taking profits. In total, the downward movement was about 60 points. And although the nearest support and resistance levels have slightly changed, buyers' tactics will most likely be the same as yesterday. The main task is to regain control over the 1.2274 level, as only this will make it possible to count on renewed demand for the European currency. A breakout and consolidation above this range and being able to test it from top to bottom (similar to the purchase, which I analyzed above) creates a good signal to open long positions. The main task is to update last year's high in the 1.2309 area. Surpassing this range will open a direct path to the area of 1.2339 and 1.2417, where I recommend taking profits. Data on the German labor market will be released today, which may harm the euro's growth. In case of a downward correction, I recommend opening long positions only after a false breakout in the support area of 1.2242. A larger level for longs is seen in the 1.2209 area, from where you can open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: Sellers of the euro aim to regain control over the 1.2242 level. Getting the pair to settle below this range and testing it from the other side will raise the pressure on the pair, which creates a good entry point for short positions. In this case, the main goal is to pull down EUR/USD to support at 1.2209, as well as to update a larger low around 1.2174, where I recommend taking profit. Testing this area will show that a downward correction is being formed and also indicate a complete reversal of the upward trend. An equally important task for the bears is to protect resistance at 1.2274, near which trade is now being conducted. Weak data on the German labor market and the volume of lending to the private sector in the eurozone will certainly put pressure on the euro. Forming a false breakout at 1.2274 will be a signal to open new short positions. In case the pair grows above 1.2274, similar to yesterday, it is better not to rush to sell, but wait until last year's high has been tested in the 1.2309 area and sell the euro there, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day. Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for December 21 recorded an increase in both short and long positions. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bull market amid news that vaccination against the first strain of coronavirus has begun in Europe. However, there are still quite a few problems due to the quarantine measures taken after the detection of a new strain of Covid-19 that appeared recently in the UK. Thus, long non-commercial positions rose from 218,710 to 222,443, while short non-commercial positions jumped from 76,877 to 78,541. The total non-commercial net position rose from 141,833 to 143,902. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market in the short term. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2235 area. Only a breakout of the average border of the indicator in the 1.2309 area can cause the pair to rise. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 5. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound collapsed after introduction of a third national lockdown in England due to coronavirus 2021-01-05 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: The British pound collapsed following the announcement of a third lockdown in the UK due to the coronavirus pandemic, which will come into effect on Tuesday. At the same time, several signals were generated to enter the market. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down all the entry points. In the afternoon forecast, we revised the resistance level and recommended opening short positions after a false breakout in the 1.3701 area. The downward movement from this level was around 70 points. But even if you did not manage to enter shorts from annual highs and navigate there, then it's okay. Another sell signal was formed during the US session, after a breakout and consolidation below 1.3629, which sharply pulled down GBP/USD to a low of 1.3573, where I advised to buy the pound immediately on the rebound. At the moment, news of the introduction of a lockdown will continue to weigh on the pound. Therefore, the initial goal is to protect support at 1.3566. Forming a false breakout on it in the first half of the day creates a signal to open long positions in the pound in order to return to the larger resistance of 1.3629, where the moving averages are located, playing on the side of sellers. Only a breakout and consolidation above 1.3629 will signal an increase in long positions, which can also bring back the upward trend observed since the beginning of December last year. If buyers are not active in the 1.3566 area, and this situation is likely, then it is better not to rush into buying, but wait for an update of larger lows in the 1.3516 and 1.3475 areas, from where you can open long positions for a rebound. Considering that the market is currently under the control of sellers, the lower the pound falls, the more likely it is to expect large buyers to return to the market, betting on growth in the medium term. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The pound might be under pressure at any time, since we do not expect anything positive from the new lockdown, and there is no news on a vaccine from the new coronavirus strain that is currently raging in the UK. The bears will try to prevent GBP/USD from rising above resistance at 1.3629. Forming a false breakout there in the first half of the day will be a signal to open short positions, while aiming for a succeeding downward correction to the area of a low of 1.3566. An equally important task for sellers will be to surpass and get the pair to settle below this range, testing it from the bottom up (similar to yesterday's shorts, which I analyzed above), creates a convenient entry point to short positions, which will quickly pull down GBP/USD to the area of a low of 1.3516 minimum. Succeeding target will still be support levels 1.3475 and 1.3433, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears ignore resistance at 1.3629, and since we do not expect important fundamental statistics for the UK today, then it would be best to postpone short positions until this year's highs are renewed in the 1.3701 region, counting on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day. Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for December 21 recorded an increase in interest in the British pound, both among buyers and sellers. Long non-commercial positions increased from 35,128 to 37,550. At the same time, short non-commercial remained practically unchanged and increased only from 31,060 to 31,518. As a result, the non-commercial net position remained positive and grew from 4,068 to 6,032. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound, even in the face of the new Covid-19 strain, which was first recorded in the UK. Everyone believes in the vaccine and that the beginning of this year, will be associated with strong economic growth as soon as the quarantine measures are lifted, which will give the market a new bullish momentum and result in the pound renewing new annual highs. Additional stimulus from the Bank of England may somewhat smooth out the upward trend in the pound, but it may not be there, since the trade deal with the EU was concluded at the very last moment. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the pound will continue to fall. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands The pair's growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator around 1.3660. In case the pound falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.3516. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Elliott wave analysis of USD/JPY for January 5, 2021 2021-01-05 USD/JPY has been in a descending correction since January 2017 where it peaked at 118.61. After a four year correction is looks as this correction finally is very close to completion and could be starting the next impulsive rally higher to 124.45. Short-term a break above minor resistance at 103.90 will indicate that the correction from January 2017 has completed, while a break above resistance at 105.65 confirm the completion and calls for a quick rally to 111.76 and ultimately higher towards the long-term target at 124.45 Trading recommendation: Buy a break above 103.90 for a long-term rally towards 111.76 and higher. Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair on 05/01/2021 2021-01-05 Yesterday, the pair again tested the upper fractal of 1.2309 (red dotted line) and unexpectedly worked out the bottom (62 points) on the news. But then the trend took its toll, and the daily candle closed with a white top. Today, the price may continue to move up. News on the market is expected at 8:55 UTC (Euro) and 15:00 UTC (Dollar). Trend analysis (Figure 1). Today, from the level of 1.2246 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle), the market will try to continue moving up with the target of 1.2309, which is the upper fractal (red dotted line), in the morning. After testing this level, the price can continue to work up with the goal of 1.2351 which is the upper limit of the Bollinger Line indicator (black dotted line). Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator Analysis – up Fibonacci Levels – up Volumes – up Candle Analysis – up Trend Analysis – up Bollinger Bands – up Weekly Chart – up General Conclusion: Today, from the level of 1.2246 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle), the market will try to continue moving up with the target of 1.2309, which is the upper fractal (red dotted line), in the morning. After testing this level, the price can continue to work up with the goal of 1.2351 which is the upper limit of the Bollinger Line indicator (black dotted line). Alternative Scenario: After working up and reaching a pullback level of 85.4% at 1.2274 (yellow dotted line), work down with a target of 1.2106 which is a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line). Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 01/05/20 2021-01-05 Yesterday, the pair went up and tested the upper fractal of 1.3685 (daily candle from 31.12.2020), but then, working out the news, the price went down, testing the 8 average EMA of 1.3544 (blue thin line). Today, the upward movement will perhaps continue according to the economic calendar news, it is expected at 15.00 UTC (dollar). Trend Analysis (Figure 1). Today, the market will start going down from the level of 103.78 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 103.66 at the pullback level of 76.4% (red dotted line). When testing this line, it will continue to go down with the next target of 103.33 at the historical support level (blue dotted line). Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator Analysis - down Fibonacci Levels - down Volumes - down Candle Analysis - down Trend Analysis - down Bollinger Bands - down Weekly Chart - down General Conclusion: Today, the market will start going down from the level of 103.78 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 103.66 at the pullback level of 76.4% (red dotted line). When testing this line, it will continue to go down with the next target of 103.33 at the historical support level (blue dotted line). Unlikely scenario: after going down and testing the pullback level of 76.4% 103.66 (red dotted line), an upward movement may begin with the target of 103.95 at the pullback level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line). Analytics and trading signals for novice traders. How to trade EUR/USD on January 5? Plan for opening and closing deals on Tuesday 2021-01-05 Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair The EUR/USD pair began a round of upward correction within a new downward trend last night, which was created after the price settled below the upward trend line (marked with a dotted line). Thus, at this time, novice traders are advised to monitor sell signals, although in general the pair continues to trade near its 2.5-year highs. Last night we recommended keeping short positions open. Unfortunately, the downward movement did not continue, although it looked quite promising. However, nothing terrible happened for traders. If you close sell orders now, the profit will be zero. If traders closed short positions on the signal of the MACD indicator up (circled), they could even make a profit of about 10 points. So in any case, there should be no losses. But in the next few hours a new sell signal from MACD may appear. The indicator was sufficiently discharged last night, therefore it can form a strong sell signal. However, as before, much will depend on the market sentiment, since both the euro and the pound's growth is more speculative now than ever, and there are very few fundamental factors and macroeconomic reports at the moment. In terms of foundation, there is now generally little that can be said. Literally a couple of reports were published in Europe and the US yesterday, which did not particularly affect the mood of traders. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is considered important, will be released today, but the problem is that it is likely to be well above the 50.0 mark, so it will only testify to the good state of manufacturing in the US. Given that markets are still refusing to buy the dollar, this index is unlikely to greatly help the US currency. Most importantly, now there is no fundamental background that would reasonably push the pair in one direction or another. Now everything is simple on the market - the dollar is getting cheaper, the euro is getting more expensive, and nobody is interested in the reasons for this movement. Fundamental background, macroeconomic indicators do not support the euro's growth now. However, this is exactly what is happening. Thus, the factors, thanks to which the market is now moving, are different from the usual ones. This should be borne in mind, especially for novice traders who now find it difficult to understand what is happening in the market. Possible scenarios on January 5: 1) Long positions have lost their relevance at the moment, as quotes have settled below the trend line, and the previous local highs have not been updated. Thus, in order to be able to re-consider buying the pair, it is necessary to wait for a new upward trend or an eloquent cancellation of the downward trend that exists at the given time. 2) Trading for a fall looks more appropriate right now. You are advised to open new short positions with targets at support levels 1.2216 and 1.2184 on a new sell signal from MACD. Formally, a downward trend is now formed, but in fact the price is only 40 points from the 2.5-year highs. Therefore, the likelihood of bringing back the upward trend is also high. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. Analytics and trading signals for novice traders. How to trade GBP/USD on January 5? Plan for opening and closing deals on Tuesday 2021-01-05 Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair A round of corrective movement began last night for the GBP/USD pair. Thus, after slightly pulling back to the upside, the pair's quotes may fall again. Formally. In practice, the pound can completely freely and calmly resume its growth today, as it has done more than a dozen times in the second half of 2020. Formally, the upward trend has been canceled, as the pair's quotes have settled below the upward trend line yesterday (now marked with a dotted line). However, earlier the price also repeatedly surpassed the trend lines, afterwards it went back to moving up. In general, the situation for the pound is the same as for the euro. Whether there are certain reasons behind it or not, the British currency as a whole continues to rise in price and that's it. Moreover, if the reasons for the pound's growth can be found in the last two weeks, when London and Brussels were able to agree on a trade deal and avoid a "hard" Brexit, then before that, it was very difficult to say why the pound rose in price for several months. Moreover, the British economy has been under the threat of new falls and contractions all this time. A new strain of coronavirus was found in the UK, thanks to which the country was isolated, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson initially tightened quarantine (bad for the economy), and now intends to introduce a third lockdown. Even beginners understand that a lockdown (in principle, like any quarantine) is a blow to the economy. And Brexit itself, which, even with a deal, will still have a negative impact on the economy. Thus, even taking into account the existence of a trade deal with the EU, the pound has much more downside factors than growth factors. Nevertheless, the pound continues to rise in price in the medium term. Nothing super interesting in the calendar of macroeconomic events for Tuesday. Perhaps, yesterday the pound fell due to news of a possible third lockdown, as before, the British currency fell on the news of a new strain of coronavirus, which began to spread rapidly among UK residents. But in the medium term, this, as we see, does not play any role. The pound continues to rise anyway. In all fairness, take note that the epidemiological situation in America is no better. It's just that in the United States, they are limited to local quarantines, which are often not tough at all. In general, almost 300,000 new cases of the disease were recorded every day in America last week. Such unfortunate news... Possible scenarios for January 5: 1) Buy orders have lost their relevance, as the pair quotes have settled below the upward trend line today. Thus, in order to be able to consider long positions, you should wait for a new upward trend or the end of the downward trend. This scenario is not expected in the next 24 hours. 2) Selling became relevant as traders broke the upward trend line. So now you are advised to monitor a new sell signal from MACD. The indicator is still quite weakly discharged and has not even come close to the zero level. Better to wait until it runs out. Sell targets are 1.3503 and 1.3440. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. Bears of the USD/JPY pair are trying to settle within 102.00 mark 2021-01-05 The dollar/yen pair continues to show a downward movement, despite the corrective upward pullbacks: USD/JPY bears express their willingness to consolidate around the 102nd mark, confirming the strength of the bearish mood. This is supported by a new round of COVID-19 panic amid the US dollar's general weakness. On the other hand, the yen regains its status as the main defensive instrument with all the ensuing consequences. If the dollar was the key beneficiary of the coronavirus crisis last year, then today, the situation has changed. The greenback is currently behaving quite modestly, despite the rise in anti-risk sentiment. The US dollar index remains below the level of 0.90, reflecting the market's skepticism towards the US currency. In connection to this, short-term corrective surges can be ignored, given the inability of dollar bulls to hold on to the reclaimed price heights. All this suggests that the rising panic in the market is in the hands of the USD/JPY sellers. Figuratively speaking, the US dollar is still in reserve, so the yen will make the first move in the pair, which will determine the price movement depending on the demand for anti-risk assets. In turn, this demand will depend on the level of anti-risk sentiment. The main topic for traders in the currency market is the global spread of COVID-19 again, surpassing macroeconomic reports and/or comments by Central Bank officials. Generally, market participants are not interested in medical reports, but in the reaction of the authorities to these reports. The epidemiological situation remained difficult in key countries at the end of last year, but this factor was leveled out by the vaccine. Last month, the vaccination process started in the US, UK and 22 other countries. Traders saw hope while ignoring medical reports relating to the rising number of cases amid the emergence of a new strain of coronavirus in the UK. However, market's optimism slightly faded as 2021 began. First, the process of vaccination is quite slow, which is complicated by several factors at once. The overall demand is still significantly higher than supply (pharmaceutical giants cannot meet existing demands at the same time), and many countries have problems with logistics and storage of drugs (especially if we are talking about a vaccine from Pfizer vaccine, which requires an extremely low temperature, -70). In addition, even if the above problems are resolved, vaccination will not be able to finish the pandemic in one moment. So far, we are talking about protecting those people who are at risk. The vaccine will be available to the general population only in a few months. For example, Israel is now ahead of everyone in the world in terms of vaccination rates – it has already introduced more than 1 million doses of the drug, but only 11% of the population was vaccinated. Other countries (where vaccination has already started) are not even close to this figure. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 continues to persist, forcing those in power to either extend the existing lockdowns or tighten quarantine restrictions. In Israel, despite the shock rate of vaccination, the head of government warned that the cabinet of ministers would consider the possibility of introducing short-term, but even stricter quarantine measures to stop the spread of COVID-19. The situation remains difficult in the UK: Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced new quarantine measures yesterday, which take effect throughout England starting today. In general, London decided to repeat the scenario last March – it is only possible to leave the house for no more than an hour a day and for strictly specified purposes only: for example, to exercise, buy groceries and essentials, or assistance. At the same time, Johnson warned UK residents that things will be difficult for the country. In relation with which, the number of daily cases since the beginning of the year does not fall below the 50,000 mark, and this indicator has set historical anti-records recently. Yesterday, more than 58 thousand new cases were recorded. According to scientists, the fault is a new strain of the virus, which is more contagious, and which is actively spreading across the country. In Germany, it was decided to extend the strict quarantine. The lockdown was supposed to end on January 10th, but the current epidemiological situation does not allow it. Based on preliminary data, Germany will be quarantined until at least until the 31st. The Japanese authorities are also seriously pondering over further actions to combat the pandemic. Amid a sharp surge in the number of infected, the country's authorities announced yesterday that a state of emergency could be declared in the capital, suburbs and some prefectures. Similar trends are more or less observed in many other countries of the world. All this allows the USD/JPY bears to rely on the continuation of the downward trend. For at least the last two weeks, the market used any corrective upward pullback as an excuse to open sell orders. Currently, there is a positional struggle for the 102.00 mark, so it is advisable to open short positions when consolidating below 102.80 – lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. The nearest downward target is 102.50 (lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart), while the main target is the round level of 102.00, which will act as a strong support level. Technical analysis of AUD/USD for January 05, 2021 2021-01-05 A general review : The trend of AUD/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in tan uptrend channel. Due to the previous events, the price is still set between the levels of 0.7672 and 0.7803, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in these levels because the prices of 0.7803 and 0.7672 are representing the resistance and support respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the uptrend channel is passed through. Then the market will probably show the signs of a bearish market. In other words, buy deals are recommended above the area of 0.7651 - 0.7672 with the first target at the level of 0.7742. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the price of 1.0773 with a view to test the daily resistance at 0.7803. Forecast : If the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.7702, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the key level of 0.7702. In this regard, buy deals are recommended higher than the 0.7672 level with the first target at 0.7743. It is possible that the pair will turn upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.0773 - then continue next objective of 0.7803. However, stop loss has always been in consideration thus it will be useful to set it below the last double bottom at the level of 0.7558 (notice that the major support today has set at 0.7558). Daily key levels : Resistance 3 : 0.7803 Major resistance : 0.7773 Minor resistance : 0.7743 Pivot point : 0.7672 Minor support : 0.7651 Major support : 0.7602 Support 3 : 0.7558 Comment : - The trend is still calling for a strong bullish market from the spot of 0.7672. - Buyers are bidding for a low price. - Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for January 5, 2021 2021-01-05 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has hit the recent swing high at 1.2309 again, but then reversed quickly towards the lower trend line support. The Broadening Wedge price pattern is still in progress, so please notice that this particular pattern is a trend reversal pattern, which indicates a possible major correction on the EUR/USD soon. For now, the zone located between the levels of 1.2154 - 1.2177 remains the key demand zone for bulls. The positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook as long as the demand zone is not clearly violated. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2555, but this might be the last push up for EUR/USD before the correction. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 invalidates this scenario. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2419 WR2 - 1.2360 WR1 - 1.2290 Weekly Pivot - 1.2236 WS1 - 1.2163 WS2 - 1.2103 WS3 - 1.2035 Trading Recommendations: Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. The market might be making the Broadening Wedge trend reversal pattern around the levels of 1.2200 - 1.2300. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for January 5, 2021 2021-01-05 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of 1.3697, which is just two pips higher than 61% Fibonacci expansion of the last wave up. Please notice, that one of the candles is a Doji candle, which indicates a possible termination of the up trend. The level of 1.3624 (intraday support) has been violated already, so the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.3428. Moreover, the RSI indicator is starting to break down from the neutral level and the market is coming off the overbought conditions. Any violation of the recent local low at 1.3540 might trigger the sell-off. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4033 WR2 - 1.3841 WR1 - 1.3765 Weekly Pivot - 1.3599 WS1 - 1.3521 WS2 - 1.3349 WS3 - 1.3262 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair might have started a long term up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 05, 2021 2021-01-05 Overview : The USD/JPY pair dropped from the level of 103.91 to the bottom around 102.73. But the pair has rebounded from the bottom of 102.73 to close at 103.01. Today, the first support level is seen at 102.73, and the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 103.18, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the USD/JPY pair is able to break out the first support at 102.73, the market will decline further to 102.55 in order to test the weekly support 2. In the H1 time frame, the pair will probably go down because the downtrend is still strong. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 103.18 with the first target at 102.73 and further to 102.55. This suggests that the pair will probably go down in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 102.55, then the market will call for a strong bearish market towards the objective of 102.37today. It would indicate a bearish market. At the same time, the breakup of 103.32 will allow the pair to go further up to the levels of 103.91 in order to retest the double top again. EUR/USD. January 5. COT report. All against one. US defense ministers urged the military not to intervene 2021-01-05 EUR/USD – 1H. On January 4, the EUR/USD pair performed a new rebound from the corrective level of 323.6% (1.2308), a reversal in favor of the US currency, and a fall to the level of 1.2272. The rebound of quotes from this level will again work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 261.8% (1.2201). In America and the European Union, nothing interesting is happening now. At least nothing that could bring the American dollar back to life. The US Congress began work in the new year in an updated composition, the budget for 2021 was adopted, Donald Trump is due to leave office on January 20. It is from Donald Trump that the mainstream of news continues to come. The US president still cannot accept the election results and once again promised to present evidence of election violations during a protest rally on January 6. However, Trump's support is extremely low. Just the other day, former US defense ministers made an official statement that the elections in the country were held legally, and called on the current head of the Pentagon and the military in general not to interfere in politics and not to follow Trump's instructions. "The elections were held. All necessary calculations and checks were carried out. All the lawsuits filed were considered by the courts. The governors confirmed the results. The electoral college voted. The time to question the results is over. The time has come for the official counting of the electoral college votes, as provided for by the US Constitution," the joint statement said. EUR/USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop, however, overall growth remains. The upward trend line continues to characterize the mood of traders as "bullish". Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2353). Fixing the pair's rate under the trend line will work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027). EUR/USD – Daily. On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair continue the process of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2495). Until the moment when the pair makes a consolidation under the level of 323.6%, there are still high chances of growth. EUR/USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On January 4, the US and the European Union released indices of business activity in the manufacturing sectors. However, the indices themselves were not the most important, and their values did not give traders a reason to react to them. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: US - ISM manufacturing index (15:00 GMT). On January 5, another index of business activity in the manufacturing sector will be released in America. In general, the information background will again be quite weak. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: The activity of major players in the last two weeks of 2020 was very weak. The "Non-commercial" category of traders, according to the latest COT report of December 29, got rid of 57 long contracts and opened new 1,660 short contracts. Thus, their mood has once again become more "bearish", but in general remains strongly "bullish", as the number of contracts focused on their hands remains strongly in favor of long (224,000 - 79,000). Nevertheless, their mood may become more "bearish", but this does not have much effect on the euro currency yet. Thus, I can conclude that speculators continue to look closely at the sales of the euro currency, but are waiting for the right moment or some kind of push. EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: On Tuesday, I recommend selling the euro in case of a rebound from the level of 1.2272 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2201. New purchases of the pair can be opened with targets of 1.2308 and 1.2353 when the quotes are fixed above the level of 1.2272 on the hourly chart. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Forex forecast 01/05/2021 on USD/CHF, USD/JPY, Gold and Silver from Sebastian Seliga 2021-01-05 Let's take a look at the technical picture of USD/CHF, USD/JPY, Gold and Silver at the daily time frame chart. Make money Deposit funds Author's today's articles: Maxim Magdalinin In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Torben Melsted Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Sergey Belyaev Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Stanislav Polyanskiy Graduated from Odessa State Economic University. On Forex since 2006. Writes analytical reviews about international financial markets for more than 3 years. Worked as a currency analyst in different finance companies for a long time including the biggest companies of Russia and Ukraine. Irina Manzenko Irina Manzenko Mourad El Keddani Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development). Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch. Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis.  Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Grigory Sokolov Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Subscription's options management Theme's: Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets Author's : A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda Edit data of subscription settings Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely, Analysts Service If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the InstaForex Toll free numbers right now: 1 866 8000 719 0 8000 51 88 99 0 800 898 548 1 800 882 528 001 803 017 910 0 800 500 329 822 140 799 8 800 080 5553 Other countries +7 (499) 7042343, +7 (812) 4580351 E-mail: support@instaforex.com InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. 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