| Technical recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January 12 2021-01-12 EUR/USD  The pair closed yesterday below the all-time support level (1.2170) and below the daily Ichimoku gold cross. A reliable consolidation in the current positions will allow us to eliminate the daily cross. The levels of the cross overcome the day before are currently acting as resistances (1.2241 - 1.2204 - 1.2170). Now, the next task to strengthen bearish mood is to perform a weekly downward correction to the weekly short-term trend (1.2075). The support of the downward target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud (1.2091 - 1.2116) is currently on its way to implement the correction.  The bears have the main advantage in the smaller time frame. Here, the classic pivot levels of 1.2112 - 1.2074 - 1.2017 are considered to be the downward pivot points for the intraday decline. However, it should be noted that the development of the trend movement is suspended, as the pair has been working in the correction zone for a long time. The key levels in the smaller time frames are now forming a large-scale range for the correction of 1.2169 (central pivot level) - 1.2250 (weekly long-term trend), joining forces with the resistance levels in the higher time frames (1.2170 - 1.2241). A breakdown of this zone and consolidation above will require a new assessment of the situation, as the current balance of power will change. GBP/USD  The pound executes the development of a downward correction. Bearish traders managed to seize the daily short-term trend, and as a result, the level was turned into the nearest resistance (1.3577). In case of recovery of positions and consolidation above the level of 1.3577, the bulls' main task in this area will be to update the high and restore the upward trend (1.3703). Today, the nearest support levels retain their location at 1.3486 (daily Fibo Kijun), 1.3416 (weekly Tenkan + daily Kijun), and 1.3350 (monthly Senkou Span A + daily Fibo Kijun). The bears, in turn, can only consider further plans if they successfully consolidate below it.  As a result of the corrective rally, the bulls in the smaller time frame seized the central pivot level (1.3509) and are now testing the strength of the weekly long-term trend (1.3569). A consolidation above which and reversal of moving averages will allow us to consider further opportunities to strengthen the bullish mood. The resistances of the classic pivot levels R2 (1.3624) and R3 (1.3682) will become upward pivots within the day. Meanwhile, the relevance of the supports of the classic pivot levels (1.3452 - 1.3294 - 1.3337) will only return the completion of the current correction and the restoration of the downward trend (1.3450). Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classical), Moving Average (120) EUR/USD and GBP/USD: There is a high chance that the EU will slide into recession. As a result, the upward potential for the euro is limited. Meanwhile, demand for the pound started to increase again. 2021-01-12 Maintaining the lockdowns, even in partial forms, will put serious pressure on many sectors, which could lead to a downturn in the EU economy. In that regard, recent forecasts were revised downwards. For instance, JPMorgan and UBS said the EU has a dim outlook due to persistent outbreaks and new strain of coronavirus.  Don't forget about the moment of the disruption in the supply of vaccine to the EU, as well as the likely disruptions in supply chains and To add to that, the pace of vaccination has slowed, and there are risks of disruption in the supply chains between the UK and the EU. The Brexit deal possesses tough rules that created problems in trading, so as a result, GDP may drop in the first and second quarter. And even if the downturn turns out not as deep as expected, it will still increase pressure on indebted governments, as well as on the European Central Bank, which must be proactive. This is another reason why the European currency will remain under pressure. Next week, the ECB will meet to discuss its monetary policy and decide on additional financial support to countries. In any case, the EU economy is projected to shrink in the first quarter of 2021. JPMorgan expects a contraction of about 1%, while UBS predicts a 0.4% drop. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, said they forecast a small reduction with great uncertainty and risks. Given all these forecasts, it is not surprising that investor confidence, although showed growth in January, was lower than expected. The data released by Sentix said investor sentiment rose to 1.3 points in January, from -2.7 points in December. This is the first increase since February 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic began to spread around the world. Meanwhile, the current situation index (CSI) remained at a negative level (-26.5 points), while the index of expectations rose to a record level of 33.5 points.  However, there is no need to rush to buy the euro, as there are serious risks of another decline in indicators. Aside from that, the above data are tentative, and the real picture will be visible only after the restrictions have been completely removed. Therefore, in the EUR / USD pair, short positions are still the best option, however, if the bulls manage to get ahold of 1.2180, the euro may begin climbing towards 1.2225 and 1.2290. But if the bears remain in control and were able to bring the quote to 1.2130, EUR / USD will most likely drop to 1.2080 and 1.2040. As for other economic reports, industrial production in Spain declined at a faster pace in November 2020 due to weak energy and capital goods production. INE said it dropped by 3.8% compared to last year, after falling by 1.6% in October. GBP / USD Demand for the British pound started to increase again, after dropping sharply due to weak report on UK retail sales. According to the British Retail Consortium, total retail sales fell 0.3% in 2020, the worst annual change since 1995. Sales of food products rose 5.4%, while sales of non-food items fell 5%.  But overall, retail sales rose 4.8% in December, after jumping by 7.7% in November. The most common purchases are household goods and food, while demand for fashion products, accessories and cosmetics was weak. Anyhow, in the GBP/USD pair, a breakout at 1.3530 may lead to a jump towards the 36th figure, after which the pound may go to 1.3660 and then to 1.3700. But if the quote drops below 1.3530, the pair may move even lower to 1.3450 and then to 1.3380. Trading idea for the EUR/USD pair 2021-01-12  As expected, many currency pairs underwent a reversal in the new year, including EUR / USD. It began to steadily decline in the market, forcing buyers to close their positions, especially since the pair is now trading near 1.21300. In this regard, it is best to sell the euro, and the strategy for which is:  Since the quotes formed a wave pattern (ABC), in which wave "A" is the movement observed in the last three days, short positions should be opened from 1.22100-1.22400, or the 61.8 and 50% retracement levels. However, the catch is that the quote should not go beyond 1.21300 or 1.21. Aside from that, risks should be monitored to avoid losing money. Trading is very precarious, but also profitable if the approach used is correct. For the above strategy, Price Action and Stop Hunting were used as trading methods. Good luck! Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 12, 2021 2021-01-12  Overview : The USD/JPY pair continues to move upwards from the level of 104.02. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 103.73, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 103.73, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/JPY pair to trade between 103.73 and 104.80. So, the support stands at 103.73, while daily resistance is found at 104.80. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 103.73. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 0103.73 with the first target at the level of 104.41; and continue towards 104.80. However, if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 103.73 today, the market will decline further to 102.62 in coming three days. GBP/USD. Saga of the pound's negative rate 2021-01-12 The pound is under pressure again, not sooner after getting rid of the burden of uncertainty associated with Brexit. This is because the issue of the negative rate returned to the agenda: Bank of England's representatives started discussing the prospects of easing the monetary policy again. The market, in turn, interpreted the hypothetical messages voiced more categorically, setting the date of the rate cut for May. Such a fundamental outlook did not allow buyers of the GBP/USD pair to develop an upward trend, especially amid the strengthening of the US currency. In my opinion, the British currency has not yet realized its growth potential and has not fully used the Brexit situation. After the New Year's holiday, events in the US overshadowed all other fundamental factors, while the COVID-19 anti-records in the UK did not allow the GBP/USD bulls to fully show itself. As a result, the pair was stuck within the 35th figure, reacting to the news flow. 
Yesterday's price decline of the pound/dollar pair was not only due to the general strengthening of the US currency. The British pound was also hit by a wave of sales amid comments by Silvana Tenreyro, a member of the MPC of the Bank of England, wherein she talked about the issue of reducing the interest rate again. Therefore, the GBP/USD reacted immediately by declining for more than 100 points, that is, to the middle of the 34th figure. First, Tenreyro's rhetoric was clearly dovish. In fact, she lobbied for the idea of lowering the rate below zero. According to her, the experience of other countries indicates the effectiveness of negative rates, therefore, the British regulator should at least have the appropriate leverage in the set of tools. Secondly, she was skeptical about the side effects of such a move. In her opinion, there is no clear evidence that negative rates will reduce the profitability of the banking sector. Thirdly, the BoE's representatives expressed doubts about the effectiveness of QE. She believes that the incentive program acts more like a parachute, which prevents falls. At the same time, QE does not stimulate economic growth. There is no doubt that her comments were extremely dovish – Tenreyro almost directly stated that she would vote for a rate cut. However, this fundamental factor is too unstable and unreliable to open short positions on the GBP/USD pair. Moreover, rumors and talk about negative rates have been circulating since the beginning of last year. Based on the results of numerous discussions, one definite conclusion can be drawn: not all members of the Central Bank agree to implement this scenario. Even the Central Bank's head, Andrew Bailey, changed his mind on this issue several times, doubting if it's worth it due to its side effects on the country's banking sector. At the last (December) meeting, Andrew Bailey emphasized that this issue is still being analyzed, so it is not advisable to talk about it in a practical plane. It is worth recalling that the Bank of England has been studying this issue for six months – Central Bank's economists interact with the country's financial institutions, modeling and analyzing the consequences of this step. The financial institutions were to send their responses to the relevant requests by mid-December, while the regulator is expected to present the results of its research at the February meeting. According to preliminary (unofficial) data, the "dovish" initiative of the Central Bank led to an extremely negative reaction not only from large banks, but also from depositors. There is also no consensus on this matter among the members of the Committee. In their public speeches, many of them (in particular, David Ramsden and Andy Haldane) opposed such an extraordinary and controversial step. In turn, Silvana Tenreyro, along with her colleague Gertjan Vlieghe, has consistently lobbied for the idea of lowering the interest rate to the negative area throughout the year. Therefore, if we consider her rhetoric in the context of this issue, we can conclude that the market reacted too emotionally to her words. However, this conclusion is also confirmed by the fact that the downward impulse of GBP/USD did not continue. Today, the pound has regained its position, returning to the borders of the 36th mark. 
This is due to today's speech of the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. He said that the impact of the pandemic on the economy was weaker than last spring. And although he did not talk about the prospects for the interest rate, his optimistic rhetoric neutralized Tenreyro's pessimism yesterday. Technically, the pair's next behavior will depend on how the US currency behaves. The US dollar index is flat today, reflecting the indecision of dollar bulls. At the same time, the USD took a break after multi-day growth, amid significant events in Washington and rising Treasury yields. As a result of this break, the GBP/USD bears will try to decline again before the Congress votes on impeachment. In turn, dollar bulls can use this information (growth of anti-risk sentiment) in their favor, to pull the pair to the base of the 35th figure. The support level is 1.3500 – middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart. We can consider long positions to the local high of 1.3630 in the next corrective decline. EUR/USD analysis for January 12 2021 - Potential for the another downside movement towards 1.2065 2021-01-12 US December NFIB small business optimism index 95.9 vs 100.2 expected Latest data released by NFIB - 12 January 2021 The headline reading falls to the lowest since May as economic sentiment is weighed down amid the health crisis worsening across the US. Despite vaccine optimism, current conditions are rather tough and that is a worry as evident by sentiment on the ground Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that sellers are in control and tthere is the breakout of the rising trend line in the background. I see potential for the further downside continuation and the test of 1,2065, which is the pivot low from the beginning of the rising trend line. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Natural Gas and Platinum today and on the bottom Ethanol and Canola. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2180 Support levels: 1,2135 and 1,2065 Analysis of Gold for January 12,.2021 - Potential for completion of the ABC and downside movement towards $1.832 2021-01-12 China December M2 money supply +10.1% vs +10.7% y/y expected Prior +10.7% - New yuan loans £1,260.0 bn vs £1,250.0 bn expected
- Aggregate financing £1,720.0 bn vs £2,185.0 bn expected
Broad money growth eases slightly towards the end of last year but remains rather elevated as China continues to maintain a healthy supply of credit in order to try and bolster the economy amid the virus crisis. The total new yuan loans for the year came in at a record total of £19.6 trillion, so that pretty much shows how much of a priority the recovery is relative to deleveraging efforts. 
Further Deveopment 
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that there is potential for the ABC correction to complete and further downside movement to continue. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the downside targets at $1,832 and $1,817. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Natural Gas and Platinum today and on the bottom Ethanol and Canola. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,865-$1,870 Support levels: $1,832 and $1,817
Author's today's articles: Zhizhko Nadezhda  Graduated from Irkutsk State University. Having acquainted with Forex market in 2008, followed the courses in the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading. The agenda was so exiting that she moved to St. Petersburg in order to get professional education. Obtained a diploma of the retraining course on the discipline Exchange market and stock market issues, defended the graduation paper with distinction on the subject "Modern technical indicators as the basis of the trading system". At the moment obtains a master degree in International Banking Institute on specialty Financial markets and investments. Apart from trading is occupied with development of trading systems and formalization of the working strategies using Ichimoku indicator. At the moment is working on the book dedicated to the peculiarities of Ichimoku indicator and its operating methods. Interests: yoga, literature, travelling and photograph. "You can only get smarter by playing a smarter opponent" Basics of Chess play, 1883 "Successful people change by themselves, the others are changed by life" Jim Rohn Pavel Vlasov  No data Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"
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