Tuesday, January 12, 2021

☕️ Coulda been worse

Some states avoided the worst-case scenario
January 12, 2021 View Online | Sign Up

Daily Brew

The Motley Fool

Good morning, and congrats to Alabama for winning the NCAA national championship. If only we were as productive as DeVonta Smith in college...

Now for the smoothest segue you'll see all day.

Students: The deadline to apply for the Brew U college ambassador program is TOMORROW. This is a resume-building opportunity you don't want to miss. Apply here

MARKETS

NASDAQ

13,036.43

- 1.25%

S&P

3,799.61

- 0.66%

DOW

31,008.69

- 0.29%

GOLD

1,843.80

+ 0.46%

10-YR

1.145%

+ 2.50 bps

OIL

52.18

- 0.11%

*As of market close

  • Government: House Democrats took another step toward impeaching President Trump for inciting an insurrection. They filed an impeachment resolution, and a vote is planned for Wednesday.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin fell almost 22% from its all-time high of nearly $42,000 last week. Mark Cuban weighed in on Twitter yesterday: "Watching the cryptos trade, it's EXACTLY like the internet stock bubble...along the way MANY fortunes will be made and LOST and we find out who has the stomach to HODL and who doesn't." 

BUDGET

Austin, We Don't Have a Problem

Last spring, forecasters warned of catastrophic budget shortfalls for US states, which needed to spend more on pandemic aid but would collect less tax revenue due to the surge in unemployment. Governors prepared to make painful cuts in critical services, including healthcare and education.  

That crisis hasn't fully materialized. And some states are in a much better financial position than they had anticipated eight months ago.

The evidence:

  • Yesterday, Texas estimated that revenue for this budget cycle would come in just a hair lower than the last cycle. And it gave a buzzcut to its projected budget shortfall.
  • Despite everyone tweeting that they're leaving SF, California is "swimming in money," writes the AP. Last Friday, it released its most expensive budget in history, complete with a $15 billion one-time surplus.
  • Optimistic revenue numbers from other states, including Maryland, Minnesota, and Connecticut, showed that the worst-case scenario was averted. 

What happened? 

The K-shaped recovery

While lower-income workers have suffered disproportionately during the pandemic, "Folks at the top are doing pretty damn well," said California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

  • In his state, residents pocketed a record $185 billion in capital gains income from asset sales...and $18.5 billion of that went to the government.
  • In Texas, homeowners swarming Lowe's this summer supported sales tax revenues. Texas also benefited from a surge in e-commerce revenue thanks to a recent Supreme Court decision that allows states to collect sales tax from out-of-state retailers.

Federal stimulus in the form of added unemployment benefits and direct payments also helped shore up state budgets.

Still, "better than expected" doesn't mean "good." In his State of the State address yesterday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo emphasized that, "Businesses have been lost, lifetime savings have been exhausted, personal debt has mounted." NY faces a $15 billion revenue shortfall this year, the largest in the state's history. 

        

SOCIAL MEDIA

What's the Opposite of Schadenfreude?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel sitting in front of a purple background during a media event. She is wearing a green suit jacket and colorful necklace.

Omer Messinger via Getty Images

Yesterday, a spokesperson for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Twitter's permanent suspension of President Trump is "problematic."

  • The reasoning: Free speech is a fundamental right, and while it's sometimes curtailed, that should only happen under legal guardrails set up by the government—not decisions by Big Tech CEOs who aren't publicly accountable

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and Russian dissident Alexei Navalny voiced similar concerns about the precedent set by Twitter's action. And EU internal market commissioner Thierry Breton wrote, "The fact that a CEO can pull the plug on POTUS's loudspeaker without any checks and balances is perplexing."

Europe has its own ideas on tech regulation 

Merkel would like to see the US impose similar rules to Germany, which enacted pioneering internet regulation in 2018. Last month, the EU went even further, proposing regulations to fine tech platforms up to 6% of annual revenue for failing to remove illegal content quickly. 

Zoom out: Twitter's shares fell 6.4% yesterday. Investors are wondering how the loss of the app's highest-profile user will affect future growth and profitability. 

        

POLITICS

Companies Do Something by Doing Nothing

A gif of an illustrated pile of money that is slowing disappearing until nothing is left.

Francis Scialabba

Following last week's attack on the Capitol, some of the biggest names in biz—JPMorgan, Blue Cross Blue Shield, and Marriott—hit pause on political spending over the weekend. Not looking to get left behind...

  • Deloitte, T-Mobile, and Walmart are reassessing their political spending strategies. 
  • 3M, Coca-Cola, UPS, Microsoft, Facebook, Ford, and BlackRock suspended all donations. 
  • Airbnb, AT&T, Amex, and Dow pulled support for 147 Republican lawmakers who voted against certifying Joe Biden's electoral college victory. Hallmark is even asking for its money back from Senators Josh Hawley and Roger Marshall.

Big picture: Large corporations regularly donate to politicians of both parties through political action committees (PACs), often funded by employees, but now they want some distance from the fracas on the Hill. While PAC donations are publicly disclosed, businesses could theoretically continue with more discrete giving to "dark money" groups that don't disclose donors. 

Looking ahead...because we're in the quarter after a major election cycle, less money is at stake. But if businesses stick to their bans on certain politicians or reduce future spending, it could ding fundraising heading into the 2022 midterms. 

        

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TECH

We're Past the Days of 'Angry Birds' and 'Temple Run'

App Store free apps

iPhone screenshots

Encrypted messaging platforms Signal and Telegram have shot to the top of the App Store's free app charts, reflecting the growing use of privacy-focused apps after Big Tech's mass-deplatforming of President Trump.

A little celeb endorsement helps: Both Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave Signal some love on Twitter, leading to 325,000 new installs since Thursday. Signal's end-to-end encryption and policy against collecting user data make it a popular option for users who prioritize privacy.

Zoom out: A scroll through the free app charts reveals a number of other unfamiliar social media apps. The rise of social networks that tout "free speech," like MeWe and CloutHub, directly coincides with Apple banning Parler, an indicator that the app's largely conservative user base is looking for a new home. 

+ While we're here: Parler sued Amazon on antitrust grounds after Amazon pulled its web hosting services for the app.

        

MUSIC

The Songbird of Our Generation Secures the Bag

Ryan Tedder singing

Venla Shalin/Redferns

What do "Halo" by Beyoncé, "Rumor Has It" by Adele, and "Sucker" by the Jonas Brothers all have in common? 1) They were played way too much on the radio and 2) OneRepublic frontman Ryan Tedder wrote them.

Yesterday, private equity firm KKR bought a majority stake in Tedder's impressive songwriting catalog in a deal that values the 500+ songs at around $200 million, per the WSJ. 

Counting stars...and dollars 

Tedder's haul is the latest eye-popping deal in a wave of musical copyright transactions that have already popped lots of eyes. Last month, Bob Dylan sold the rights to his catalog for over $300 million, and Fleetwood Mac's Stevie Nicks pulled in $80 million for the rights to 80% of her catalog. 

  • Why the hefty price tags? As streaming becomes more dominant, the long-term value of hit songs is only increasing.  

Bottom line: For many musicians, their decision to sell came down to one factor—the pandemic. With touring on hold, Tedder and others opted to cash a ticket while the market is frothy. 

        

TAXES

Corporations Aren't People, but People Might Be Corporations

Tax illustration

Mark Wang

At least when it comes to the surging gig economy. The share of gig workers at US businesses jumped 15% from 2010 to 2020, according to ADP, and the pandemic only pushed more American workers to go solo when they lost jobs or earnings.

But...

While being your own boss is fun to brag about on distanced first dates, tax season is a different story. Freelancers have to operate as independent businesses, and figuring out what to send the IRS's way can be so confusing even the Westworld creators would say, "now that just seems way too convoluted." 

We're here to help: With tax season on its way, Morning Brew will be rolling out a new series to make sure you're prepared for this unconventional filing season.

The first piece, a high-level overview of the growth of the gig economy, just dropped. Check it out

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Facebook is removing content that includes the phrase, "stop the steal," which was a rallying cry for President Trump and his supporters who, without providing evidence, alleged widespread voter fraud. 
  • Walmart is partnering with Ribbit Capital, a VC firm that backed Affirm and Robinhood, for a new fintech startup.  
  • Staples will make its third attempt at buying Office Depot. The offer is $2.1 billion.  
  • Pfizer and BioNTech are raising their Covid-19 vaccine output goal by more than 50% to accommodate more demand. 
  • SPAC news: Bitcoin exchange Bakkt is going public via a merger with a special purpose acquisition company. Tesla challenger Lucid Motors is in talks to do the same.
  • Crocs said last year was likely its best ever in terms of sales. 

BREW'S BETS

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Tech Tip Tuesday: Budgeting platform Mint just added subscription tracking to help you unsubscribe from all the limited free trials you forgot about. This guide outlines other apps that do the same, and explains how to manually manage subscriptions across devices.

Thought-provoking pod: Ezra Klein reflects on the media industry in his final podcast for Vox. Give it a listen

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GAMES

Logo Quiz

This is the logo for a company called Industrious. Based on its logo, what do you think the company does? 

 

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ANSWER

Did the "worker" bee help at all? It's coworking. 

              

Written by Toby Howell, Alex Hickey, and Neal Freyman

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