Wall Street rocks as food lines grow — Warren/Sanders fade from Cabinet talk — More Yellen react

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Nov 25, 2020 View in browser   By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Money will not publish on Thursday, Nov. 26 and Friday, Nov. 27. We'll be back on our normal schedule on Monday, Nov. 30. Editor's Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. Quick Fix Wall street rocks as food lines grow — MM is not a huge fan of arbitrary round number celebrations of the stock market (though we do still have a Dow 20K hat.) But it's worth noting as we ease into the Thanksgiving holiday that the Dow hitting 30K , after plunging to 18K in March, is a remarkable moment in our history. And it highlights the biggest challenging facing President-elect Joe Biden as he prepares to enter the White House. The top of the American economy is rocking. Those of us lucky enough to work in jobs we can do remotely have done mostly fine during the pandemic, though perhaps not psychologically. Underneath, Americans are suffering in terrible ways with food lines growing and unemployment claims still at record levels (which they will likely hit again today). There is hope on the horizon with three vaccines showing great promise. But there is more pain ahead especially with no fresh stimulus coming out of Washington until at least late January. Biden's presidency will rise or fall on his ability to bend Washington to the task of helping to unwind the relentless march of economic inequality. This will likely mean jawboning enough free-market Republicans in the Senate to kick in for another significant round of federal assistance while assuring them that once we slip the viral grip he will lean into the economy taking off on its own, which it very well could once we get to the spring. There are many hinge moments in American history. We face one now. And the Biden team very much knows it. GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING — Happy Thanksgiving to all. MM is dark through Monday. May this be the last we have to spend separated from those we love. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.   TRACK THE TRANSITION: President-elect Biden has started to form a Cabinet and announce his senior White House staff. The appointments and staffing decisions made in the coming days send clear-cut signals about Biden's priorities. Transition Playbook is the definitive guide to one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Written for political insiders, it tracks the appointments, people, and the emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today.     Driving the Day Huge blast of economic data today ahead of the holiday weekend. Second estimate of Q3 GDP likely to be little changed from the initial 33.1 percent estimate. The fourth quarter will be much worse and the first quarter of next year could go negative again. … Initial Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. expected to dip only slightly to 730K from 742K, still well above the previous all-time high … Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. expected to dip to 77.0 from 81.8 … MORE YELLEN REACT — Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson: "[A] safer pair of hands is hard to imagine—but it does not change our view that the next Covid relief bill will be modest if Republicans still control the Senate … "As Treasury Secretary, Dr. Yellen will have a powerful bully pulpit, alongside Fed Chair Powell to make the case for more fiscal action. But if Republicans are still in charge, the key decisions will be made by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell." George Mason Law professor J.W. Verret emails : "From 2013-2015, I ran staff work for House oversight of the Fed under Chairman Hensarling. We pushed Chair Yellen on rules-based monetary policy, cost-benefit analysis in regulation, and Bagehot style limits on 13(3) lending. "Those debates seems quaint in the Trump era. I'm glad to see our old adversary get this post. She will be an even hand at the helm, she cares about free trade, she will do fine. Clear case for confirmation." BIDEN TAMPS DOWN TALK OF WARREN/SANDERS IN CABINET — Our Matthew Choi: "Biden said … he wanted to keep some of his former progressive rivals in the Senate, further tempering hopes of Sens. Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren joining his administration. Speaking with NBC News' Lester Holt, Biden said that the two former Democratic presidential candidates were vital to advancing his progressive agenda in Congress and that his administration already had 'significant representation among progressives.' "Still, he said, 'there's nothing really off the table.' 'Taking someone out of the Senate, taking someone out of the House, particularly a person of consequence, is a really difficult decision that would have to be made,' Biden said. 'I have a very ambitious, very progressive agenda. And it's going to take really strong leaders in the House and Senate to get it done.'" BIDEN'S CLIMATE AGENDA — Our Zachary Warmbrodt and Debra Kahn in The Long Game newsletter: "Much of … Biden's policy agenda hinges on which party controls the Senate … But when it comes to tackling climate change risks in the financial system — a high priority for many Democrats — even a divided Congress won't stand in the way. "Policymakers and experts believe that independent financial regulatory agencies in the U.S. have ample authority to expose looming economic dangers posed by rising temperatures and devastating natural disasters. Some of the work is already underway by Trump appointees and is only expected to accelerate once Biden is inaugurated." Markets DOW SCALES 30,000 — Reuters' Chuck Mikolajczak: "U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday and the Dow breached the 30,000 level for the first time, as investors anticipated a 2021 economic recovery on coronavirus vaccine progress and the formal clearance for President-elect Joe Biden's transition to the White House. Of the 11 major S&P sectors, 10 gained ground, led by economically sensitive stocks such as financials, materials and energy, while industrials hit a record." But how did it happen? — AP's Stan Choe: "The Dow's rocket ride to 30,000 got big boosts from the Federal Reserve, which slashed short-term interest rates back to roughly zero and took other measures to stabilize financial markets, and Congress, which came through with trillions of dollars of financial aid for the economy. "The economy has improved since the pandemic's initial shock. For instance, claims for unemployment benefits dropped from 6.9 million in March to 742,000 last week. Company profits didn't tank as much as initially feared. And the possibility that a COVID vaccine could begin distribution by the end of the year has recently given the market more reason to be optimistic."   DON'T MISS THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT 2020: POLITICO will feature a special edition Future Pulse newsletter at the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators determined to confront and conquer the most significant health challenges. Covid-19 has exposed weaknesses across our health systems, particularly in the treatment of our most vulnerable communities, driving the focus of the 2020 conference on the converging crises of public health, economic insecurity, and social justice. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage from December 7–9.     Fly Around MNUCHIN TO PUT $455B IN FUNDS OUT OF YELLEN'S EASY REACH — Bloomberg's Saleha Mohsin: "Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will put $455 billion in unspent Cares Act funding into an account that his presumed successor, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, will need authorization from Congress to use. "Mnuchin plans to place the money into the agency's General Fund, a Treasury Department spokesperson said Tuesday. That fund can only be tapped with 'authority based on congressionally issued legislation,' according to the Treasury's website. YELLEN HAS EXCELLED AT BIG JOBS, BUT THIS WILL BE THE HARDEST YET — NYT's Neil Irwin: "If confirmed by the Senate as Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen will be among the most accomplished people to take over the big office at 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue in the 231-year history of the department. Few people in any era have served at the highest levels of economic policymaking for as long, and with as much distinction. "Among other things, she will be the first person to have been the chief White House economist and head of both the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. At the Fed, she played a major role in engineering the longest economic expansion in American history, cut short only by the pandemic." YELLEN WILL CONFRONT COOLING RECOVERY, UNCERTAIN STIMULUS — WSJ's Kate Davidson: "Janet Yellen, President-elect Joe Biden's nominee to be Treasury secretary, will confront an economic recovery that appears to be losing momentum and uncertain prospects for additional stimulus from Congress. "If confirmed by the Senate, Ms. Yellen would play a key role pushing for more aid for an economy battered by the coronavirus pandemic and related shutdowns, especially if Congress is unable to reach an agreement on a relief package before Mr. Biden takes office on Jan. 20." FED'S BULLARD SEES 'LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL' — Reuters: "St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard on Tuesday said recent developments regarding the success of several coronavirus vaccine candidates suggests an end to the health and economic crisis may be coming into view. "'It seems to me there's light at the end of the tunnel,' Bullard said to reporters following a presentation to an event hosted by the Bank of Finland. 'In terms of being able to see the end of the crisis, that's very much a realistic view at this point.' Bullard also said that while some recent economic data has not been as strong as it had been earlier in the fall, nonetheless 'so far I think we're holding up.'" WILLIAMS: FED CAN RESTART EMERGENCY LENDING IF NEEDED — WSJ's Michael S. Derby: "The Federal Reserve is well prepared to navigate the U.S. economy's challenging path to recover from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, and the central bank can resume emergency lending efforts if it deems it necessary, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams ... "'We're still in a deep recession' with high unemployment and an economy far from full strength despite its recent dramatic rebound, Mr. Williams said during a virtual event held by The Wall Street Journal." CFTC CHIEF: FIRMS MAY BE SHUT OUT OF SWAPS ON LIBOR ISSUE — Bloomberg's William Shaw and Silla Brush: "A significant number of asset managers risk being locked out of the interest-rate swaps market early next year unless they sign on to a new protocol designed to smooth the transition away from Libor, warned the chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "With the London interbank offered rate set to be phased out at the end of 2021, market participants are being encouraged to adopt standardized language by January that will convert Libor-linked contracts to an alternative reference rate once the benchmark expires." GLITCHES HIT TRADING PLATFORMS RUN BY BOFA, VANGUARD — WSJ's Alexander Osipovich: "Popular trading platforms run by Bank of America Corp., TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. and Vanguard Group suffered glitches Tuesday that rendered them inaccessible or slow to use, frustrating investors on a landmark day for the U.S. stock market. "The snafus began as markets opened at 9:30 a.m. ET, before the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 30000 for the first time, according to the tech-service tracker Downdetector."   Follow us on Twitter Mark McQuillian @mcqdc Ben White @morningmoneyben Aubree Eliza Weaver @aubreeeweaver Victoria Guida @vtg2 Katy O'Donnell @katyodonnell_ Zachary Warmbrodt @Zachary Kellie Mejdrich @kelmej   Follow us

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