Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Chrystia Freeland’s reality check — Justin Trudeau’s vaccine guidance — Open discussion on the closed border

Go inside the corridors of power in Ottawa politics.
Nov 25, 2020 View in browser
 
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By Maura Forrest

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We may not be getting a budget this year, but at least we'll be getting a fiscal update, which will definitely say more than a fiscal snapshot, but definitely won't include a fiscal anchor. Got it?

Welcome to Corridors. I'm your host, Maura Forrest. In today's edition: Chrystia Freeland faces her first test as finance minister, Trudeau tempers vaccine expectations, and Jean Charest and Anne McLellan study the border. Get in touch: mforrest@politico.com

DRIVING THE WEEK

'LET ME BE CLEAR' — When she was named finance minister in August, it seemed Chrystia Freeland was going to preside over what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called an "unprecedented opportunity" to rebuild the country post-pandemic, fill in all the gaps in the social safety net, transition to a clean economy, etc., etc. Remember that? Now, as she prepares for her first major challenge in her new role, she's facing a quite different reality from the one Trudeau seemed to envision just a few months ago.

Freeland's long-awaited fiscal update, to be delivered Monday, is coming as Covid-19 case numbers are spiking. In the past week alone, Toronto has gone back into lockdown, Nunavut has seen an alarming spread of the virus, Alberta has banned indoor gatherings and the Atlantic bubble has burst. Trudeau has reverted to working from home, and no one is talking much about the recovery these days.

Suffice it to say we may not get a document as visionary as the Liberals of August would have liked. But Freeland has dropped hints in recent weeks about what to expect as this government navigates the second wave of Covid-19. The Coles Notes version: Yes, we can afford to spend more. Have you heard about our awesome debt-to-GDP ratio? But no, the spending will not be infinite. There will eventually be fiscal guardrails, but now is definitely not the time or place to say what they are.

— The minister of everything: In a profile of Canada's new finance minister published this morning, POLITICO's Andy Blatchford and Rachel Browne take an in-depth look at Freeland's background and rapid rise through the ranks of Trudeau's government, at the skills she brings to her new job and the still-unanswered questions about how she'll work with Bay Street.

— The nemesis: Andy also talked to Conservative finance critic Pierre Poilievre, who relished going toe-to-toe with her predecessor, Bill Morneau, and who never backs down from a good fight. His take on Freeland? "So far, the reality has not matched the hype."

— And speaking of Poilievre: Andy also asked him about his controversial petition calling on the government to "Stop the Great Reset" — a reference to a vision for the Covid-19 recovery offered up by the World Economic Forum that has taken on a new and sinister meaning for some conspiracy theorists. Trudeau recently told a United Nations meeting that the pandemic presents an opportunity for a "reset," and Poilievre has been making hay with that ever since. He told Andy he's only using "the prime minister's own words … that describe massive economic reorganization that he wants to impose because he thinks he has an opportunity while people are desperate and afraid during the pandemic."

— Elsewhere: Poilievre's petition has prompted the Toronto Star to accuse him of "flirting with the far right," while over at Maclean's, Paul Wells chided him for "winking and nodding" at "people who are at best confused." In the National Post, Chris Selley argues the most absurd thing about Poilievre's claims "is the idea that Trudeau is ambitious or ideological or committed enough to see the vision through."

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

Corridors wanted to know: What is the most important question the Liberals have to answer in Monday's fiscal update? And what's one thing they can afford to kick down the road?

Kate Harrison, vice president at Summa Strategies and Conservative strategist: There's been a lot of general support programs for Canadians, but little relief for key industries. Airlines, restaurants, small biz and agriculture are in bleak financial straits. The Liberals must answer their call.

Voters (to the frustration of Conservatives) don't care about balancing the budget right now; they want to feel the government is there for them. Fiscal anchors can wait.

Cameron Holmstrom, consultant at Bluesky Strategy Group and NDP strategist: The most important question … is how much has actually been spent to date on the Covid-19 response. We've seen many announcements of funds, plans and programs, but not all of those announcements have been followed by money moving out the door.

The day will come when we get into … hard questions about how to pay the bill, but now is not that time.

Richard Mahoney, managing director of McMillan Vantage Policy Group and Liberal strategist: Can we rely on the federal government to do what it takes to get us all through the pandemic? While updating the fiscal framework … and letting Canadians know that their financial resources will be managed smartly is important, it's secondary.

While there are limits to what the federal government can spend, the priority now is managing our way through the health crisis, facilitating a sustainable economic recovery that works for all, and dealing with climate change. A path to balance can wait.

THIS WEEK ON THE HILL

Back of the line: It's been a couple of weeks since Trudeau started talking about the "light at the end of the tunnel." That was just after we'd seen the first of a series of promising announcements about potential vaccines from drugmakers Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca. But, as Batman or Superman or somebody once said, "With great expectations comes great power to disappoint." (That's almost certainly the correct quote.)

On Tuesday, Trudeau seemed to be preparing Canadians to sit tight while other countries start vaccinating their own citizens. "One of the things to remember is Canada no longer has any domestic production capacity for vaccines," he said. "We used to have it decades ago, but we no longer have it." That means other countries like the U.S., the U.K. and Germany, which can produce vaccines domestically, will prioritize their own people first, he said.

— Hurry up and wait: His comments come in the wake of reports that those countries could be vaccinating people as early as December. Trudeau, by comparison, has been talking about the first quarter of 2021. As CTV's Glen McGregor rather diplomatically put it, a long delay could present a "significant communications challenge" for the government. Conservative health critic Michelle Rempel Garner was a little more blunt: "I don't think [Canadians] are going to be particularly happy and they shouldn't be," she tells Corridors.

— More questions than answers: Timing aside, there continues to be uncertainty about vaccine distribution, including how many doses each province will get. A Liberal source tells Corridors there will likely be a full announcement of the vaccine deployment plan when it's ready, but not all provinces have finalized their own plans for who should get priority access.

Unforced erreur: The House of Commons will hold a debate this evening on the status of the French language in Montreal, an attempt to ease tensions that flared in Quebec after a backbench Liberal MP made a faux pas a couple of weeks ago. Montreal MP Emmanuella Lambropoulos raised eyebrows when she questioned whether the French language is really on the decline in Quebec. The incident put the Liberals on the defensive for days, with Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet suggesting that Lambropoulos was only saying aloud "what many of them do think."

— Bonjour/Hi: It was particularly bad timing for the Liberals, given that persistent fears about the decline of French in Montreal had just been given fresh oxygen. The Journal de Montréal earlier this month published an investigation of sorts, in which a reporter visited 31 businesses and restaurants in the city and was greeted only in English in more than half of them. And then last week, the Liberal Party's Quebec president went and made everything worse when she tweeted that the province's language law, Bill 101, is "oppressive."

— A bad look: Though the whole affair has barely registered in English-speaking Canada, it's been embarrassing for the Liberals, who explicitly promised in the latest Throne Speech to "protect and promote French… within Quebec," in part by strengthening the Official Languages Act. And it's the kind of blunder guaranteed to spark loud reactions from the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois, who are competing for Quebec ridings outside Montreal where anxieties about the state of the language are keenly felt.

Still a thing: If you thought the WE Charity controversy had gone away — surprise! Privy council clerk Ian Shugart appeared before the House finance committee on Tuesday, where he spent much of his time defending the redactions public servants made to the 5,000 pages of documents the government released on the affair. Conservative finance critic Pierre Poilievre promptly pointed out Shugart could be fired by the PM, implying the clerk is beholden to his political masters. Liberal MP Peter Fragiskatos later accused Poilievre of "besmirching [Shugart's] reputation," but was cut off before he could challenge him to a duel.

MAID in the Senate: The Liberals' assisted-dying legislation could face hurdles in the Upper House, where several senators conducting a pre-study pushed Justice Minister David Lametti this week on why the bill doesn't allow assisted death for people suffering solely from mental illness. Lametti said the issue will be considered in future, but the government is facing a court-ordered Dec. 18 deadline to update the existing law, so time is tight. As it stands, Bill C-7 would expand assisted dying to those whose death is not reasonably foreseeable. But the bill is facing criticism from several quarters, including from disability advocates who say it signals they're expendable.

YOU TELL US

Corridors is a new weekly newsletter for MPs, lobbyists, executives, activists and any readers who are interested in what's going on around Parliament Hill. Every Wednesday we will look at the people pulling the levers of power in Ottawa and the questions that are influencing decisions on Parliament Hill and in the provinces. Join the conversation! You can email us at mforrest@politico.com, ablatchford@politico.com, lgardner@politico.com and sallan@politico.com.

IN THE ROOM WHERE IT HAPPENS

Dr. Christopher Sands is director of the Wilson Center's Canada Institute.

Photo courtesy of the Wilson Center.

We're now eight extensions in to a 30-day Canada-U.S. border closure first enacted in March. With no end to the restrictions in sight, some Canadian snowbirds are now taking some fairly… ingenious? irresponsible? measures to get down to Florida with their RVs in tow. With the closure now confirmed until at least Dec. 21, a Washington think tank has launched a task force to study how Canada and the U.S. can eventually reopen the border while maintaining public trust. Its members include former Quebec premier Jean Charest and former deputy prime minister Anne McLellan. POLITICO spoke with Christopher Sands, director of the Wilson Center's Canada Institute, about the project. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

How did the task force come about?
It used to be we were trying to open the border and make it more efficient. The pandemic has thrown everything upside down because the public wants to keep the border as a firebreak against the spread of Covid-19. We're safer, but there are sectors — cross-border retail, tourism or even healthcare — that are suffering. This isn't about politics. It's about how we move forward and balance competing interests.

When do you start?
We're mapping meetings between now and February with a lot of work within a short timeframe. The Biden administration will have competing issues on their agenda, so I want to present them with something early.

Who does the task force plan to consult?
We are starting with people who are publishing and writing about the border, groups like the Chamber of Commerce in the U.S., the Business Council on national issues, the Canadian Chamber, plus regional groups like the Council of the Great Lakes Region. They're all wrestling with the problem.

The task force has a March deadline. Is that an acknowledgment that the border will still be restricted?
It will have been one year. It's a good time for politicians and everyone else to say, "Where's this going? Are we just going to keep with 30-day renewals for the rest of the year? How do we introduce greater movement opportunities?"
For example, one of the challenges if you're planning health screening at the border is that both countries have relatively rigorous privacy rules. So how do you compel sharing that information? How do you handle that data so you're protecting people's privacy, consistent with the law? If we're going to plan this, we ought to think about it.

ON THE NOTICE PAPER

Former Liberal cabinet minister Jane Philpott celebrates 60. She is now dean of health sciences at Queen's University.

Photo via Jane Philpott on Twitter.

Birthdays: Former health minister Jane Philpott celebrated 60 with a selfie and a hashtag Monday: #EmbracingAging … Assistant Deputy Speaker Carol Hughes will be 62 on Thursday. (Some honorable members: Oh, oh!) … Public accounts chair and Conservative MP Kelly Block turns 59 on Monday. … Conservative MP Dan Albas will be 44 on Dec. 1.

Farewells: Condolences to Seamus O'Regan on the loss of his dad. Liberal MP Churence Rogers paid tribute to O'Regan Sr. in the House: "He will be fondly remembered for his quick wit, practicality and utmost kindness to all," he said.

Spotted: Liberal MP Kirsty Duncan and her dad making Scottish Christmas cake. … Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe in self-isolation … Conservative MP Eric Duncan in conversation with Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith. ... And Liberal MP John McKay launching What We Give.

Movers and shakers: Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia is the new chair of the House environment committee. … Congrats to former Liberal cabinet minister Ralph Goodale, who just received a Churchill Society award. ... Conservative MP Peter Kent said he won't run again in Thornhill. PR executive and war room veteran Melissa Lantsman has announced her plans to pursue the Conservative nomination in that GTA riding. … Meanwhile out west, Edmonton Mayor Don Iveson has decided not to seek re-election this fall.

Got a tip, event, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other suggestion for Corridors? Let me know: mforrest@politico.com

The Reading Room

Mia Rabson of the Canadian Press reports on a new study from the Canada Energy Regulator that projects if Canada continues to strengthen its climate policies, neither the Trans Mountain expansion nor the new Keystone XL pipeline will be needed.

POLITICO's Bryan Bender and Theodoric Meyer write on WestExec Advisors, the secretive consulting firm that's become Biden's Cabinet in waiting.

The Globe and Mail's ROB magazine picks "a classic grinder" to be its Global Visionary of the Year.

Observers with a view from abroad tell POLITICO what the U.S. election looks like to other countries.

Chatelaine's Women of 2020 include Green Party Leader Annamie Paul, the Wet'suwet'en matriarchs and Canada's Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam.

Pro Zone

Former envoy says he regrets creating fear in China about Canadian election
Transition 2020: Kerry pledges global emphasis to Biden climate approach.
Delta, WestJet call off joint venture over DOT demands.
DeSantis submits drug import plan ahead of new federal rule.
Democracies urged to band together to resist China.
What's missing from Ottawa's net-zero climate bill.

TRIVIA QUESTION

Several good attempts were made, but sadly, no one guessed that the 2006 film Snow Cake, starring Alan Rickman, was filmed (and set) in Wawa, Ont. Wawa: it's about so much more than the goose.

Here's this week's question:

Why does the governing party sit to the left of the speaker in Newfoundland's House of Assembly, while legislatures typically have the governing members to the right of the speaker and the opposition to the left?

Email mforrest@politico.com with your answers — or with trivia suggestions!

With thanks to Editor Sue Allan, Luiza Ch. Savage and Andy Blatchford

 

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Maura Forrest @mauraforrest

 

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