THE THANKSGIVING PARADOX — The coming holiday is either a triumph of restraint or a coronavirus explosion waiting to happen, based on how you view the mix of available data and increasingly dire warnings. — One conclusion: Many Americans are choosing to stay home. Travel through the nation's airports is down more than 50 percent compared to last year, according to the TSA, and a majority of Americans have told pollsters that they're not going to celebrate Thanksgiving beyond their immediate circle. "[O]nly around 27 percent of Americans plan to dine with people outside their household," according to the New York Times' Upshot team , concluding that most Americans were following the advice of public health officials. — The other conclusion: Too many Americans are still traveling. Since Friday, the TSA has screened nearly 1 million travelers per day, by far the highest daily average since the pandemic exploded in March, even as the virus is surging. Meanwhile, AAA predicted as many as 50 million Americans would still travel for Thanksgiving, which would be a mere 10 percent drop from last year's holiday. And even the New York Times' conclusion — that "only" 27 percent of American adults plan to celebrate with people outside of their household — would translate to 70 million people expecting to mix with other circles this week, a huge number that could create multiple new clusters. — ROBERT REDFIELD : Small gatherings are driving the viral spikes. CDC data suggests that the "public square" isn't fueling the nationwide surge of cases, the agency's director said on Fox News. "Who would ever think rural North Dakota would be in the red zone?" Redfield said. "It's really being driven by household gatherings." Redfield was responding to a New York Times story on Monday originally titled "Small Social Gatherings Aren't Driving the Virus Surge (So Far)." That story questioned health officials' repeated assertions about small gatherings, although acknowledged that the data is still in flux. BIDEN CLOSES IN ON HHS SECRETARY PICK — New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and former Surgeon General Vivek Murthy are top contenders to be Biden's health secretary, POLITICO's Adam Cancryn and Alice Miranda Ollstein report. The race pits a rising star governor against a widely respected doctor — with the two vying for the privilege to join the Cabinet at the highest-stakes moment for an HHS secretary in recent memory. — The case for LUJAN GRISHAM: The nation's first Latina governor has extensive management experience — having run New Mexico's health agency and then the entire state — and knows how to navigate Washington, thanks to her three terms as a House lawmaker. Lujan Grisham has also been among the most aggressive state leaders in combating the pandemic, and has plenty of allies; the Congressional Hispanic Caucus has spent recent weeks lobbying the Biden team to make her the first Latina HHS secretary. — The case for MURTHY: The former surgeon general is close to Biden in an administration that puts a premium on pre-existing relationships, having served as his close health adviser for months. A co-chair of Biden's Covid-19 advisory board, Murthy has also overseen the transition's pandemic planning for months, and is well-liked within the Democratic establishment and on Capitol Hill. His selection would also signal a recommitment to public health issues that have been overshadowed in recent administrations, leaving the nation susceptible to disasters like Covid-19. CDC, HHS RAMP UP TESTING SURVEILLANCE EFFORTS — CDC and HHS are working to stand up a Strategic Surveillance Program to aggressively screen certain communities for Covid-19 on a weekly or bi-weekly basis, HHS testing czar Brett Giroir told reporters Tuesday. The goal is to see if the more aggressive testing can effectively curb new spread of the virus. The administration is setting aside about 1.8 million rapid coronavirus tests made by Abbott and Cue Health for use in Colorado, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Utah, Veterans Affairs and certain tribes. HHS said the effort is not a new program, but instead represents an extension of other surge testing efforts to date. "This is being done in conjunction with the CDC, who are helping us learn from all the lessons that we have and really test the hypothesis: Can serial testing of a large population with less of an emphasis on isolation after close contact really stop the outbreaks?" Giroir said. The new resources and support began to roll out last week, but it is unclear what percentage of people living in the communities being studied will be tested. "CDC is working with states to assist in the development of a strategic approach that includes repeated testing to identify possible outbreaks before they occur as well as robust reporting," HHS spokesperson Mia Heck said. | 
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