Friday, November 27, 2020

FX Strategy 27 Nov 2020

 
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FX Strategy 27 Nov 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NOK and NZD are the top gainers today, up 0.44% and 0.29% versus the dollar while CHF and USD are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.289, up 1.0bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.026, up 1.0bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.588, up 0.2bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.859, flat 0.0bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading firm today. The Hang Seng was trading at 26950.7, up 0.49%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 26644.71, up 0.4%. The Kospi was trading at 2633.45, up 0.29%. In the European equities, indices were trading mixed today. The DAX 30 was trading at 13302.1, up 0.12%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3514.95, up 0.11%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6332.75, down -0.47%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3628.88, up 0.22%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3510.0, down -0.09%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6323.0, down -0.46%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 44.61, down -0.82%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 47.4, down -0.84%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, overnight we had the release of Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY (Actual 0.7% v Forecast -0.6%) for October. More recently this morning, we have seen German Import Prices YoY (Actual -3.9% v Consensus -4.1%) for October, plus the CBRT Financial Stability Report plus the French Inflation RateYoY Prel for November (Actual 0.2% v Forecast 0.1%) and French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 (Actual 18.7% v Forecast 18.2%). We have also seen Spanish Retail Sales data for October with YoY (Actual -2.7% v Forecast -4.4%) and MoM (Actual 0.2% v Forecast -1.6%). Looking forward to the morning session, Bundesbank's Weidmann is speaking at 08:10 GMT, followed at 09:00 GMT with Italian Consumer Confidence for November (Previous 102.0 v Forecast 100.5) and Business Confidence for November (Previous 95.6 v Forecast 93.6). ECB's Panetta is due to speak at 09:30 GMT, followed at 10:00 GMT with Euro Area data for November; this includes Consumer Confidence Final (Previous -15.5 v Forecast -17.6), Economic Sentiment (Previous 90.9 v Forecast 86.5), Industrial Sentiment (Previous -9.6 v Forecast -10.8) and Services Sentiment (Previous -11.8 v Forecast -14.2). ECB's Schnabel is also due to speak at 10:00 GMT. At 11:30 GMT we expect Spanish Business Confidence for November (Previous -9.2 v Forecast -10).

 

Looking forward to the afternoon trading session, at 12:00 GMT Brazilian Unemployment Rate for September (Previous 14.4% v Forecast 14.7%) will be released, alongside the Indian GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 (Previous -23.9% v Forecast -10%) and Mexican Balance of Trade (Previous $4.385B v Forecast $4B) for October all at the same time. Russian Business Confidence for October will be released later in the session at 16:00 GMT (Previous -5 v Forecast -8) and concludes the economic data releases and speakers for this week.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1913 for 1.1969
Short-term view: EURUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.1913 and we see a rise to 1.1969 enter at 1.1931. Below 1.1913 to open 1.1886

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3321 for 1.3435
Short-term view: GBPUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.3321 and we see a rise to 1.3435 enter at 1.3359. Below 1.3321 to open 1.3283

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 104.32 for 103.73
Short-term view: USDJPY resistance comes in at 104.32 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 103.73 enter at 104.13. Above 104.32 to open 104.42

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7396 for 0.7364
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 0.7396 and we see a dip to 0.7364 enter at 0.7385. Above 0.7396 to open 0.7407

 
 
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