Monday, November 23, 2020

FX Strategy 23 Nov 2020

 
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FX Strategy 23 Nov 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NOK and GBP are the top gainers today, up 0.55% and 0.51% versus the dollar while JPY and USD are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The US 10-year was trading at 0.832, up 0.8bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.591, down -0.8bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.297, down -0.8bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading firm today. The Kospi was trading at 2602.59, up 1.92%. The Hang Seng was trading at 26470.45, up 0.07%. In the European equities, indices were trading stronger today. The DAX 30 was trading at 13216.3, up 0.6%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6383.05, up 0.5%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3494.55, up 0.78%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6367.8, up 0.53%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3488.0, up 0.72%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3573.38, up 0.54%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading stronger today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 43.21, up 2.51%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 45.95, up 2.2%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, overnight we have already seen Australian data for November with Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (Actual 56.1 v Forecast 54) and Services PMI (Actual 54.9 v Forecast 53.5). For this morning's session, we look forward to a number of November Markit PMI data releases, starting at 08:15 GMT with French Manufacturing PMI Flash (Previous 51.3 v Forecast 50.0) and Services PMI (Previous 46.5 v Forecast 40.1). At 08:30 GMT, German Manufacturing PMI Flash (Previous 58.2 v Forecast 55.9) and Services PMI Flash (Previous 49.5 v Forecast 46.5) will be released, then at 09:00 GMT Euro Area Manufacturing PMI Flash (Previous 54.8 v Forecast 53.6) and Services PMI Flash (Previous 46.9 v Forecast 43.7) will also be released. At 09:30 GMT we expect UK Manufacturing PMI Flash (Previous 53.7 v Forecast 50.0) and Services PMI Flash (Previous 51.4 v Forecast 42). The BCB Focus Market Readout is then released at 11:30 GMT.

 

Looking forward to the afternoon session, ECB's Schnabel will start speaking at 13:10 GMT with the US Chicago Fed National Index (Previous 0.27 v Forecast 0.1) following at 13:30 GMT. At 14:45 GMT, the Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (Previous 53.4 v Forecast 52.9) and Services PMI (Previous 56.9 v Forecast 55.1) for November are due to be released onto the wires. A number of speakers will follow, with Fed's Daly (18:00 GMT), BoC's Gravelle (19:00 GMT) and Fed's Evans (20:00 GMT). At 21:00 GMT South Korean Consumer Confidence (Previous 91.6 v Forecast 82) is released and concludes today's data releases.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1841 for 1.1907
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1841 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1907 enter at 1.1863. Below 1.1841 to open 1.1825

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.33 for 1.3379
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.33 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.3379 enter at 1.3326. Below 1.33 to open 1.3274

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 103.61 for 104.03
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 103.61 and we see a rise to 104.03 enter at 103.75. Below 103.61 to open 103.52

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7298 for 0.7356
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7298 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.7356 enter at 0.7317. Below 0.7298 to open 0.7271

 
 
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