Tuesday, November 17, 2020

FX Strategy 17 Nov 2020

 
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FX Strategy 17 Nov 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, JPY and CHF are the top gainers today, up 0.1% and 0.03% versus the dollar while NZD and AUD are the top losers, down -0.27% and -0.15% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading stronger today. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.354, up 0.4bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.913, up 0.2bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.543, up 0.2bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.022, up 0.2bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 26014.62, up 0.42%. The Hang Seng was trading at 26414.45, up 0.12%. The Kospi was trading at 2539.15, down -0.15%. In the European equities, indices were trading weaker today. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3464.2, down -0.06%. The DAX 30 was trading at 13133.35, down -0.04%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6414.72, down -0.1%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3614.88, down -0.22%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3460.0, down -0.29%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6399.5, down -0.29%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading firm today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 44.02, up 0.46%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 41.42, up 0.19%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already seen the RBA Meeting Minutes and RBA's Debelle speaking overnight. This morning we only have once economic data release of note, at 09:00 GMT we expect Italian Balance of Trade for September (Previous €3.928B v Forecast €3.2B).This afternoon starts at 13:00 GMT with ECB's Guindos speaking, followed at 13:15 GMT with Canadian Housing Starts for October (Previous 209K v Forecast 219K). All eyes are on headline US data for October with Retail Sales MoM (Previous 1.9% v Forecast 0.4%), Retail Sales YoY (Previous 5.4% v Forecast 5.7%), Export Prices YoY (Previous -1.8% v Forecast -1.5%), Export Prices MoM (Previous 0.6% v Forecast 0.3%), Import Prices YoY (Previous -1.1% v Forecast -0.4%), Import Prices MoM (Previous 0.3% v Forecast 0.3%) and Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Previous 1.5% v Forecast 0.5%). BoE's Governor Bailey is speaking at 14:00 GMT, followed at 14:15 GMT with US Industrial Production MoM (Previous -0.6% v Forecast 0.8%) and YoY (Previous -7.3% v Forecast -6.6%). US Business Inventories for September MoM (Previous 0.3% v Forecast 0.4%) follows at 15:00 GMT alongside US NAHB Housing Index for November (Previous 85 v Forecast 84). At 15:45 GMT Bundesbank's Balz will start speaking, followed at 16:00 GMT with a speech by ECB's President Lagarde. A number of speakers will follow later in the session, these include BoE's Ramsden (17:00 GMT), Fed's Bostic (18:00 GMT), Fed's Daly (18:25 GMT), BoC Governor Macklem (19:00 GMT), Fed's Bostic (19:35 GMT) and Fed's Daly (19:50 GMT). Japanese Balance of Trade for October (Previous YEN675B v Forecast YEN210B) is released at 23:50 GMT and round's off data releases for today.

 

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10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1877 for 1.1822
Short-term view: EURUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 1.1877 and we see a dip to 1.1822 enter at 1.1859. Above 1.1877 to open 1.19

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3163 for 1.3242
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3163 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.3242 enter at 1.3189. Below 1.3163 to open 1.3125

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 104.24 for 104.7
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 104.24 and we see a rise to 104.7 enter at 104.39. Below 104.24 to open 103.9

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.728 for 0.7343
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.728 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.7343 enter at 0.7301. Below 0.728 to open 0.724

 
 
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