Wednesday, November 11, 2020

FX Strategy 11 Nov 2020

 
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FX Strategy 11 Nov 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NZD and AUD are the top gainers today, up 0.82% and 0.14% versus the dollar while JPY and CHF are the top losers, down -0.12% and -0.12% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading stronger today. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.417, up 1.7bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.479, up 1.2bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.037, up 0.5bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 25349.6, up 1.78%. The Kospi was trading at 2485.87, up 1.35%. The Hang Seng was trading at 26220.0, down -0.31%. In the European equities, indices were trading stronger today. The DAX 30 was trading at 13216.35, up 0.4%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6330.75, up 0.54%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3455.45, up 0.37%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6303.0, up 0.31%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3548.62, up 0.22%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3436.0, down -0.43%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading firm today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 44.73, up 2.57%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 42.45, up 2.64%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, overnight we have seen Indonesian Retail Sales for September YoY (Actual -8.7% v Forecast -7.5%), Japanese Machine Tool Orders for October YoY (Actual -5.9% v Forecast -20%) and Turkish Current Account for September (Actual $-2.364B v Forecast $-3.2B). The morning session is relatively quiet for data with no headline releases for today's session.

 

Looking forward to the afternoon session we have Brazilian Retail Sales for September YoY (Previous 6.1% v Forecast 4%) and MoM (Previous 3.4% v Forecast 1.7%) plus Mexican Industrial Production for September YoY (Previous -9% v Forecast -7%) and MoM (Previous 3.3% v Forecast 1.5%) which are all released at 12:00 GMT. ECB speakers Lagarde, Guindos and Lane are speaking individually at 13:00 GMT, 13:30 GMT and 16:00 GMT respectively. Later this evening we look forward to South Korean data for the October time period, with Export Prices YoY (Previous -6.2% v Consensus -5.6%) and Import Prices YoY (Previous -11.5% v Consensus -10%) at 21:00 GMT. At 23:50 GMT we have Japanese data with Machinery Orders for September YoY (Previous -15.2% v Forecast -11.6%) and MoM (Previous 0.2% v Forecast -1%) plus PPI for October YoY (Previous -0.8% v Forecast -2.0%) and MoM (Previous 0.2% v Forecast -1%) which will all be released onto the wires.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1846 for 1.1782
Short-term view: EURUSD resistance comes in at 1.1846 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1782 enter at 1.1825. Above 1.1846 to open 1.1877

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3235 for 1.3316
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3235 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.3316 enter at 1.3262. Below 1.3235 to open 1.3192

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 105.56 for 105.19
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 105.56 and we see a dip to 105.19 enter at 105.44. Above 105.56 to open 105.86

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7278 for 0.732
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 0.7278 and we see a rise to 0.732 enter at 0.7292. Below 0.7278 to open 0.7261

 
 
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