Axios World: Ethiopia's danger of civil war — World watching U.S. election

1 big thing: Ethiopia sliding toward civil war | Thursday, November 05, 2020

Open in app View in browser   Presented By OurCrowd   Axios World By Dave Lawler ·Nov 05, 2020 Welcome back to Axios World. We're bringing you a glimpse of the world beyond the U.S. election (though I'll admit to refreshing the vote counts as often as I'm sure many of you are). Tonight's edition is 1,571 words (6 minutes) and begins with worrying developments in Ethiopia. Tell a friend to sign up.     1 big thing: Ethiopia sliding toward civil war Standing guard during the Tigray regional elections, which the national government deemed illegal. Photo: Eduardo Soteras/AFP via Getty   While the world was watching votes roll in from the U.S. election early Wednesday morning, Ethiopia was sliding into what could be a devastating civil war. The big picture: The conflict is between Ethiopia's federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and leaders in the northern Tigray region. It's part of a broader struggle over who really holds power in Ethiopia. Driving the news: Abiy accused Tigrayan leaders of crossing "the last red line" by allegedly attacking a military post to steal weapons. "The federal government is therefore forced into a military confrontation," he said. The latest: The fighting appeared to intensify today. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which runs the region, reported airstrikes near the regional capital, Mekelle. "Our country has entered into a war it didn't anticipate," Gen. Birhanu Jula, Ethiopia's deputy military chief, said in televised remarks tonight. In reality, both sides have been preparing for a fight for weeks. The big picture: Despite Tigray only accounting for 6% of Ethiopia's population, the TPLF was the most powerful faction of the Ethiopian government until 2018, when Abiy took office and began to shift power toward the center. The regions fought back — Tigray in particular. Tensions have been particularly acute since Abiy postponed national elections earlier this year, citing the pandemic. The TPLF claimed Abiy was illegitimately clinging to power, and the group spurned the federal government by proceeding with regional elections in September. Abiy responded by cutting off funding. Last week, Tigray refused to allow an army commander deployed from the capital to take up his post in the region. On Tuesday, the federal parliament moved to declare the TPLF a terrorist organization. By then, the TPLF was preparing for war. Where things stand: "A war that many Ethiopians feared was possible but hoped would never happen appears to be under way," the International Crisis Group warns. William Davison, a Crisis Group analyst in Ethiopia, says only limited information is available about the current state of the fighting, in part because the federal government cut off telephone and internet access in Tigray. Abiy aims to remove the regional leadership and install a more compliant government. But Tigray's leaders command a large and well-armed paramilitary force and appear to have the support of the population, Davison says.  More than half of Ethiopia's troops are based in Tigray, but many of the officers are Tigrayan, and the TPLF claims many will switch sides or refuse to fight. A prolonged conflict is more likely than a quick victory. What to watch: If the fighting persists, it could prove impossible to contain, particularly with ethnic and regional tensions already enflamed around the country. "Such a war could lead to the balkanisation of Africa's second-most-populous country (with 110m people). It could also spread instability into neighbouring countries," The Economist notes. That war could be fought on two fronts: Eritrea is just across the border from Tigray and might jump at the chance to take on the TPLF, which dominated Ethiopia's government during the Eritrean–Ethiopian War (1998–2000). The bottom line: Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for officially bringing that war to a close. He may have just started a new one.     2. Europe puts up the shutters A Paris icon, now open for online orders only. Photo: Kiran Ridley/Getty Images   Much of Italy will be placed under a strict lockdown as of Friday in the most drastic steps the country has taken to fight the coronavirus since it led the world into lockdown nearly eight months ago. The big picture: Italy managed to keep the spread of the virus largely under control for months after a brutal first wave. But like much of Europe, it's currently recording unprecedented daily case counts and scrambling to avoid a return to overcrowded hospitals and climbing death tolls in the coming weeks. Driving the news: Travel in and out of six regions will be banned except where absolutely necessary, while bars and restaurants will be closed. Those regions include Lombardy, which is home to Milan and accounts for one-fifth of Italy's GDP. Italy has resisted a nationwide lockdown in favor of a tiered, regional approach. By contrast, England initially attempted that approach but today entered a second nationwide lockdown. State of play: Europe is recording far more cases than ever before in the pandemic. Deaths across the continent jumped to 17,396 last week, up 39% from the week prior, per the WHO. France is recording the most cases and deaths in Europe. The deaths tolls recorded over the last few days have exceeded anything the country has seen since April.     3. State of the outbreak: Closing borders, killing mink Data: Our World in Data; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios 1. Several countries and regions are facing a very different problem: how to keep cases at (or near) zero as the pandemic roars on elsewhere, without throttling the economy, the WSJ notes. New Zealand is virtually COVID-free, and the country has kept a near-total travel ban in place to keep things that way. But it's unclear exactly how sustainable that is, particularly for an economy that relies on tourism. Thailand, which has just 133 active cases, is taking an even greater economic hit without tourists. It's now opening its doors ever so slightly: allowing in tourists from low-risk countries (including China), with a 14-day quarantine. China is employing a hyper-aggressive whack-a-mole strategy wherever cases pop up. Just a handful of cases in Qingdao led the government to test 9 million people. 2. A World Economic Forum survey of 15 countries finds that people are growing less willing to take a vaccine once one becomes available. Willingness to be vaccinated was highest in India (87%), China (85%) and South Korea (83%). It was lowest in France (54%), the U.S. (64%) and Spain (64%). The top reasons for skepticism were that the vaccine could have side effects, or that testing had been rushed. 3. Denmark plans to cull its entire population of around 15 million mink after a mutation of COVID-19 discovered in the animals was found to have spread to at least 12 humans. The mutated form of the virus "weakens the ability to form antibodies" and thus "carries the risk that a future vaccine will not work as it should," Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said. Denmark's chief epidemiologist said in a "worst-case scenario, the pandemic will restart, this time in Denmark," per the FT. Denmark is the world's top source of mink fur.     A message from OurCrowd OurCrowd creates pre-IPO investment opportunities for you     Today, OurCrowd members can invest in Cyabra. As disinformation becomes increasingly threatening to global brands, media and governments, Cyabra reports that it's uniquely positioned to serve this potential $6.1 billion market. Interested in investing? Join OurCrowd.     4. Global news roundup Protests in Warsaw. Photo: Omar Marques/Getty Images   1. Poland's conservative government has delayed the implementation of a ruling that would ban abortion in nearly all cases, after two weeks of protests across the country. The popular revolt over the constitutional court's decision has shocked and divided the ruling Law and Justice party. 2. Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of Brazil's president, was charged last night with the embezzlement of state funds. 3. A bill being circulated in the Russian parliament would give former presidents lifetime immunity from criminal prosecution. A separate bill submitted by Vladimir Putin would give ex-presidents a seat in the senate for life, per The Moscow Times. What remains uncertain is whether Putin will ever become an ex-president. Recent constitutional reforms allow him to remain in power until 2036. 4. The Israeli army bulldozed a Palestinian village in the West Bank on Tuesday, leaving dozens homeless, per AFP. "The Jordan Valley falls within the West Bank's 'Area C' that is fully controlled by Israel's army, which has occupied the West Bank since the 1967 Six Day war."  "Under Israeli military law, Palestinians cannot build structures in the area without permits, which are typically refused, and demolitions are common." 5. Hashim Thaçi was arrested today shortly after resigning as Kosovo's president. He was charged by a tribunal in The Hague for alleged war crimes dating to his time as a guerrilla commander during the war for independence from Serbia.     5. Middle East: Arab countries prefer Biden Reproduced from Arab Barometer; Chart: Axios Visuals Most Israelis have been hoping for another four years of Trump. That's not the case in the Arab world, Axios' Barak Ravid writes. Breaking it down: According to an Arab Barometer poll published on Monday, just 3%–18% of people across five countries believe a Trump victory would be good for the region — though many have little confidence in Joe Biden as well. A YouGov poll published by Saudi-based Arab News on Oct. 26 showed similar trends. 40% of respondents across 18 Arab countries said Biden would be better for the Middle East, 12% thought Trump would be better, and 49% said either would be bad. Interestingly, most respondents thought Biden should distance himself from Obama-era policies, which 53% of the participants saw as negative. Israel, meanwhile, is one of the only countries in the world where both the government and the population at large are highly supportive of Trump. Flashback: Trump's favorability in Israel was roughly on par with Hillary Clinton's in 2016. It's much higher now, boosted by a series of steps that rolled back or shifted Obama-era policies. A Channel 13 poll published on Nov. 1 showed 68% of Israelis favoring Trump, versus 12% for Biden. Go deeper: Netanyahu keeps quiet with U.S. election in the balance     6. What the world is reading Photos via Newseum, collage via your very talented author.   A glimpse at the Newseum's collection of global front pages makes clear that the main story in much — though not all — of the world is the U.S. election. Here's a snapshot of what the world was reading this morning. "Biden one step away from the presidency and Trump launches a legal battle," La Naciòn, Buenos Aires, Argentina. "With Biden close to victory, Trump says he will take the results to court," Folha de Sao Paulo, Brazil. "Biden turns it around and proclaims that he will win," El País, Montevideo, Uruguay. "Biden almost wraps it up and Trump contests," Reforma, Mexico City. "Trump wants to secure power with the help of the courts," Der Standard, Vienna, Austria. "Biden one step away from the White House," La Stampa, Turin, Italy. "America Divided," Irish Times, Dublin. "Donald Trumped?" Daily Mail, U.K. "Biden: no one will take away our democracy," Guardian, U.K. "Biden takes slim lead as vote count nears end," Haaretz, Tel Aviv, Israel. "Biden surges in tight race," The New Indian Express, Chennai. "Race too close to call but Trump claims win," Philippine Daily Inquirer, Manila.     7. Stories we're watching Sikh worshippers in Amritsar, India. Photo: Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty   Read our latest U.S. election coverage Quoted: "It is necessary to kill all mink." — Danish PM Mette Frederiksen not mincing her words     A message from OurCrowd VC in on successful IPOs of 2019 and 2020 launches pandemic fund     OurCrowd's Pandemic Innovation Fund. The idea: From communication companies adapting to the new normal to med-tech to food security solutions, the fund's investments have potential for positive impact and superior returns. If you're interested in investing, you need to join OurCrowd.     Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: