Monday, October 12, 2020

FX Strategy 12 Oct 2020

 
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FX Strategy 12 Oct 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, JPY and GBP are the top gainers today, up 0.15% and 0.09% versus the dollar while AUD and NZD are the top losers, down -0.2% and -0.12% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading weaker today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.023, down -0.8bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.544, down -1.2bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.268, down -1.6bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Hang Seng was trading at 24622.0, up 2.08%. The Kospi was trading at 2403.73, up 0.49%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23558.69, down -0.26%. In the European equities, indices were trading mixed today. The DAX 30 was trading at 13071.95, up 0.16%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3277.97, up 0.15%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5999.65, down -0.28%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3270.0, up 0.21%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3478.88, up 0.16%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5972.2, down -0.29%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weak today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 42.41, down -1.03%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 40.12, down -1.18%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already seen the results for Japanese Machinery Orders YoY (Actual -15.2% v Forecast -15%) and MoM (Actual 0.2% v Forecast -1.5%) for August alongside Japanese PPI YoY (Actual -0.8% v Forecast -0.3%) and MoM (Actual -0.2% v Forecast 0.1%) for September. Earlier this morning we have also had the data release for German Wholesale Prices YoY (Actual -1.8% v Forecast -1.6%) and MoM (Actual 0.0% v Forecast 0.2%) for September. We also had data from Turkey with the Unemployment Rate for July (Actual 13.4% v Forecast 14%) and Current Account for August (Actual $-4.63B v Forecast $-4.2B).

 

Looking forward to the morning session, ECB's Schnabel and President Lagarde are speaking at 08:45 GMT and 11:00 GMT respectively. Also at 11:00 GMT, we expect Mexican Industrial Production for August with YoY (Previous -11.3% v Forecast -8%) and MoM (Previous 6.9% v Forecast 3%) alongside South African Manufacturing Production YoY (Previous -10.6% v Forecast -7.5%) and MoM (Previous 7.6% v Forecast 5.8%) again for August. ECB's Guindos is also speaking at 15:00 GMT.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.178 for 1.1856
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.178 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1856 enter at 1.1805. Below 1.178 to open 1.1731

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3006 for 1.309
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3006 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.309 enter at 1.3034. Below 1.3006 to open 1.2961

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 105.75 for 105.28
Short-term view: USDJPY resistance comes in at 105.75 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 105.28 enter at 105.59. Above 105.75 to open 105.92

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7216 for 0.7271
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7216 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.7271 enter at 0.7229. Below 0.7216 to open 0.7189

 
 
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