Americas Wrap

Economic calendar due from Asia today - Tuesday 1 September 2020 - RBA day Reserve Bank of Australia announcement due at 0430GMT, brief preview: 2230 GMT Australia - AiG Manufacturing PMI for August 2145 GMT New Zealand Building Permits for July 0130 GMT Australia Q2 data for... Read full article Silver consolidation may be done as it climbs to 13-day high Silver outpaces gold The silver bugs are proving to be resilient. Gold is consolidating but silver may be in the midst of another breakout. The rally today may have punched a path higher from the bull flag pattern on the chart.... Read full article Germany will revise higher -6.2% 2020 GDP forecast on Tuesday - report New forecasts due tomorrow Economy Minister Peter Altmaier will release new forecasts tomorrow and they will be higher, according to a Bloomberg report, citing people familiar.... Read full article Manufacturing tops Tuesday's US economic calendar ISM manufacturing up next The ISM manufacturing report tops the economic calendar on Tuesday as a big week of US economic data picks up. The consensus is for a slight improvement to 54.6 from 54.2. Estimates range from 52.5 to 56.5 for the 10 am ET release. At the same time will will also get July construction... Read full article Oil reverses course to finish at the lows of the day Intraday reversal for oil Oil tried to break above the August range last week but failed again. Crude has quick turned into the least-volatile asset in financial markets, which is a remarkable change in character from a few months ago. The total range in WTI since the start of July is $4.93, which was a hiccup in... Read full article Read The Full Feed Latest Forex Orders September seasonals don't shine What to watch out for in the month ahead August seasonals were a bust as the usual pangs of late-summer risk aversion never materialized, leading to outperformance of usual laggards AUD/USD, cable and equities. We will start fresh tomorrow as September gets underway but there aren't many big clues in the monthly seasonal patterns. September is often a month dominated by news flow as policymakers return from holiday so that will dominate. One recently-struggling asset in Septembers is gold. It's fallen an average of 1.16% in the past 10 Septembers including declines in six of the past seven. On the fundamental side, I have been writing about the rising chances for Republicans to hold the Senate, something that will reintroduce fiscal discipline to the US equation, something that would undermine gold. A strong September trade tends to be natural gas as it begins its three-month period of strength. It averages a 7.05% gain in September over the past 10 years. That doesn't include the 62.6% rally in September 2009, which was the last time we were coming out of a crisis. Warren Buffett today made headlines for a large investment into Japan. Seasonal investors may want to follow him because September averages a 1.16% gain over the past decade. More importantly, the four-month period through December is the strongest time of the year for the Nikkie 225. The S&P 500 is moderately positive for September, with an average gain of 0.86% in the past decade. I had a look to see how it did in election years and there is no strong pattern: 2016 -0.12% 2012 +2.4% 2008 -9.1% 2004 +0.9% 2000 -5.3% 1996 +5.4% 1992 +0.9% Note though that October was negative for stocks in the 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections and strongly positive for the US dollar. As for FX, I'm very hard pressed to find anything notable. There is a slight bid to the dollar in the shorter-term but over the past 30 years it's one of the weaker years for the dollar. Oil is strong in the long-term but the effects of hurricanes are diminishing and September is increasingly negative.  For cypto, September is the worst month for bitcoin and has declined in Sept in three straight years (including 2017, which was the boom). For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus  All Forex Orders Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis Education Economic Calendar Forex Brokers Are you subscribed to our events? Join now and get informed Subscribe Connect with us on your favorite social network

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