Monday, August 31, 2020

[Fundamental analysis] Pay attention: Nonfarm Payroll week is starting

Nonfarm Payroll week

Hello, my name is Nicholas. I am a financial analyst with the OctaFX team.

Let's rewind to review the events that impacted the market and which events will affect it in the future.

Last Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, delivered his highly anticipated speech, outlining an adaptive shift in the Central Bank's inflation approach. Investors understood this to mean that interest rates would remain low. This should be an indication that the U.S. dollar will weaken within this term.

Japanese Prime Minister Abe's resignation announcement forced the yen down against the dollar, euro, and pound while also diminishing the Nikkei 225 index. However, on Monday, the situation stabilised. Growth between the yen and all trading instruments will be under pressure this week.

Despite uncertainty regarding the spread of coronavirus, the government of England encourages people to return to work. Additionally, there is positive news on the trade front with the European Union.

This week, you should pay attention to the publication of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of leading countries and, of course, to  the nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

Upcoming news

31 August

Monday

EUR: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices

 

1 September

Tuesday

AUD: RBA Interest Rate Decision

EUR: Consumer Price Index

USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI

2 September

Wednesday

AUD: Gross Domestic Product

EUR: Retail Sales

 

3 September

Thursday

AUD: Trade Balance

EUR: Retail Sales

USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

4 September

Friday

AUD: Retail Sales s.a.

CAD: Unemployment Rate

USD: Nonfarm Payrolls

Market sentiment

Indices

The SPX 500 index reached a historical record of 3,500. If you look at the sentiment of the market, now the majority of speculators have opened short positions, as most do not believe in further growth. Most likely, there will be a downward correction, although the general trend remains bullish.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar concluded its fourth consecutive monthly decline on Monday, while the yen stabilised following the news regarding Shinzo Abe's resignation. The dollar experienced countless selling after the end of last week but should remain steady despite pressure on Monday. Investors are paying close attention to U.S. opinion polls after each party's' convention, as well as purchasing managers' indices in China and other major economies, and Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold

Gold is attempting to reclaim previous growth towards 2,000 USD, although it's doing so solely because of a weak dollar. Life-saving coronavirus vaccines are slowly making their way to the forefront, which makes a surge in price unlikely. However, if gold does see an upward correction, it's worth noting the resistance level is 2,014 USD.

Oil

Brent oil crude is trading at around 46 USD in New York, with a cautiously optimistic improvement in demand following the hurricane threats U.S. refineries residing near the Gulf of Mexico began the recovery process after narrowly escaping Hurricane Laura. Additionally, attention has returned to the struggle to contain coronavirus, which impacts the global oil trade. As with gold, a weak U.S. dollar is supporting oil prices despite excess supply and little demand due to coronavirus.

 

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