Editor's note: The investment landscape is unclear right now... But that doesn't mean you can't find ways to profit as we navigate 2025. In fact, Keith Kaplan – CEO of our corporate affiliate TradeSmith – believes more prosperity is ahead as we enter the new year. In today's Masters Series, originally from the January 2 issue of the free TradeSmith Daily e-letter, Keith details how you can consistently identify winning stocks moving forward...
A Seasonality System for Growing Profits Year After Year By Keith Kaplan, CEO, TradeSmith Investors often hear about the "Santa Claus rally," the "January effect," and the advice to "sell in May and go away." Market history tells us September brings declines and flash-crashes, while November through April are the best six months for profits from the S&P 500 Index each year. Those are all examples of "seasonality" in the stock market: recurring periods of growth or weakness that happen with such astonishing frequency that they've become expected, annual events. Like handling plants in a garden, there are times to harvest, and there are times to sow seeds and wait for new growth. But seasonality doesn't just apply to the big indexes. Every stock has its own "seasons" to grow or decline. A kind of summer... and a kind of winter, too. Repeating year after year. It's fair to be skeptical: That level of consistency sounds too good to be true, right? If this was the case, why weren't these patterns common knowledge? Well, to put it simply: It takes a lot of data to identify seasonality trends in individual stocks. But when you see market seasonality in action, the strength of these trends can blow you away. I was certainly surprised last fall, when one of our programmers here at TradeSmith e-mailed me with a simple request: to watch Nvidia's (NVDA) stock on October 24. This programmer had been conducting historical research that projected that, starting that day, Nvidia was set to rise an average of 7.8% over the next 15 days. This pattern had occurred 100% of the time over the past 15 years. So, I watched the stock. I didn't know of any obvious catalyst for that day – no scheduled company announcement, no Federal Reserve meetings... no product demos... nothing. But sure enough, on October 24, 2024, Nvidia shot up – just as our programmer projected. Over the next 15 days, it rose 5.1%. Now, I'm a data scientist – so immediately, I started asking questions. And when I sat down with that programmer to discuss the results, he walked me through the data on NVDA's price movements. Clear as day, for the past 15 years, Nvidia shot up during that 15-day time span, starting October 24, every single year. There was a 100% hit rate across that period... 
Fifteen years – that stretches back all the way to 2009. Back then, bitcoin (BTC) had only just debuted, and the idea of an artificial intelligence ("AI") industry, or an AI trade... it was all science fiction at best. Nvidia was just a company chugging along, making graphics cards for video games and media editors. But still, it kept rising in late October, regardless of news or attention... year after year. Now, on its own, a 5.1% gain isn't much. But if you could repeat that modest gain every 15 days, using consistent historical patterns like we saw with Nvidia, that's the equivalent of making 120% each year. More than doubling your money – while the S&P 500 averages an annual return of just 10.26%. Each trade wouldn't even have to be very large.
| Recommended Links: | |  Log Into Keith's $5,000 Website It's a website that shows you the biggest potential jumps on 5,000 stocks – to the day – weeks before they occur. In 2024 alone, it would've pointed to gains of 250% in 38 days on TTWO... 101% in 10 days on WSM... 353% in 48 days on AON... and more, in studies with 83% back-tested accuracy. Until January 8, you can claim free access here. | |
 Prepare for This Postelection Surprise Marc Chaikin's Power Gauge flagged 45 of the top 50 stocks of 2024 in advance of their massive gains. Recently, he stepped forward with a must-see market prediction for 2025 that he has never shared before... driven by a rare signal with 93% historical accuracy. He also shares two free recommendations (tickers included). Click here to watch before it goes offline. | | |
There are plenty more of these seasonality cycles waiting to be found out there, hidden in the data of thousands of different stocks. And my team has developed a new strategy to capitalize on them – built around a system that can track and chart the most optimal seasonality patterns of the year, like our own "Farmer's Almanac" for the stock market. It's revolutionary, even compared with the rest of TradeSmith's suite of software and investment tools. And it works on more than just Nvidia. Our historical research showed that Tesla and Broadcom jumped each May. Advanced Micro Devices did great in November. Allient was a great buy in October... but it was a bad idea to buy NeuroMetrix that same month. Finding these opportunities took a lot of searching. So I dedicated our entire research and development team – 74 people in total – to the task of serving up these cycles automatically. The resulting algorithm runs 50,000 tests per day to analyze every single stock in the major indexes, find the ones with the strongest seasonality trends, and point us to the best opportunities – down to the day. As we backtested this strategy, we realized that trading these stocks at their very best times of year wasn't just a novel approach – it was an incredibly effective one. Over our 18-year backtest, these seasonal trades delivered 857% in total growth: more than twice what the S&P 500 delivered over the same period. Even in 2007, the strategy's worst year, it delivered an annualized return of 37.9%. It worked year after year, pointing you to the best times to trade each stock. Amazon (AMZN) is another great example. Between May 24 and July 13, AMZN has gone up 100% of the time over the past 15 years, with an average return of 10.26%. 
If you bought shares at market close on May 24, 2024 for $180.75, selling at the end of the period on July 12 would've delivered 7.6% in profits... And if you'd sold near the seasonal peak on July 5, you would have earned 10.65%. I could show you examples of these seasonal patterns all day. We've uncovered seasonality cycles in stocks, indexes, even currencies and commodities – and we're one of the few firms that can crunch enough data, the right way, to identify the very best seasonal trades. If we wanted to, we could easily launch a hedge fund of our own, built around this tool. But at TradeSmith, we're not interested in that type of business. Instead, we're offering regular investors and traders access to try this powerful software. All the best, Keith Kaplan
Editor's note: By helping individual investors and traders determine the best day of the year to buy a stock – and the best day to sell – Keith is giving everyone the chance to put the power of seasonality to work for them. That's why he's hosting an online presentation on Wednesday, January 8, to explain how you can harness these powerful seasonal cycles and plan your trades in advance, so you can buy and sell with confidence. Click here to get the full details... | 
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