With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off starting Wednesday for the holidays but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. Happy holidays to the readers who make this the best job in the world. President JOE BIDEN has just shy of four weeks to settle his foreign policy legacy and there is no shortage of global challenges demanding action between now and Jan. 20. It’s unlikely that Biden will end Russia’s nearly three-year war with Ukraine, secure a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel or negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran. Those outcomes are either too far away or too likely to be quickly undone when the new administration takes office. But when it comes to Gaza, Syria, Venezuela and even Ukraine’s military capabilities, the Biden administration has plenty it could still do in the next 27 days. Shoring up the U.S. presence in Syria: There are two big priorities for the U.S. regarding Syria in the coming weeks — building relations with the new governing force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and ensuring that the country’s Kurdish forces aren’t threatened by Turkish-backed militants. The U.S. is speaking with Turkey and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the hopes that a de-facto cease-fire between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army and the SDF holds in the country’s northeast. Meanwhile, U.S. officials are continuing to establish channels with HTS in Damascus to ensure that its leaders don’t become a strategic headache. The Biden administration has the power to lift sanctions on HTS and provide HTS with some diplomatic carrots. While it’s unlikely the U.S. will delist HTS, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate, as a terrorist organization before Trump takes office, the U.S. can still “acknowledge” good behavior from HTS and respond in kind with more communication, said CHARLES LISTER, who directs the Syria program at the Middle East Institute. “We're the ones with the real leverage over HTS. We control the sanctions, we control the designations,” said Lister. “That's not to say that the U.S. holds the key to solving the entire thing, but we are arguably the player with the greatest amount of leverage to make sure that this transition goes the way it should.” Deals in the Gaza Strip: U.S., Qatari and Egyptian mediators could close in on a deal to end fighting in the Gaza Strip and see the release of the estimated nearly 100 hostages that remain in Hamas captivity. There are signs a deal is moving. Before the holidays, top Biden administration officials, including national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, visited the region in the hopes of invigorating continued talks between Israel and Hamas. And Israeli and Palestinian officials are signaling that key areas of disagreement are being ironed out in ongoing talks. The belief among many analysts is that a hostage release deal with a brief cease-fire by itself is more achievable at the moment than a permanent cease-fire. But AARON DAVID MILLER, a veteran Middle East peacemaker who’s served in both Democratic and Republican administrations, told NatSec Daily that there is a window of opportunity for a full cease-fire. Miller noted that "Israeli-Palestinian negotiations have only two speeds, slow and slower," but he argues Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU is more open than ever to a cease-fire deal and Hamas can’t keep fighting for much longer. “You now have a new set of factors that you never had before,” said Miller. “I think there's a better chance now for a deal.” More Venezuela sanctions: To date, the U.S. has only opted to impose personal sanctions on Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO and Venezuelan government officials and their families. Yet U.S. officials have left the door open for more action, including sanctions on the petrostate’s oil and gas industry as Venezuela’s political standoff ensues. At a briefing for foreign press outlets on Dec. 17, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER did not rule out more action against Venezuela in the days leading up to the inauguration in Caracas on Jan. 10. Both Maduro and the opposition, which has made the case that Maduro stole the country’s most recent election, have stated they will be taking power that day. Supporting Ukraine: The administration wants to ensure Ukraine is in the strongest position possible before it leaves office and is considering a few different ways to surge aid to Kyiv. Biden pledged on Sept. 26 to continue surging security assistance to Ukraine and some money is available in existing presidential drawdown authorities. The U.S. government is also preparing a new tranche of Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative money, which would provide long-term funding and get Ukraine military equipment on contract for future use. The goal of these efforts is to get Ukraine what it needs beyond the immediate concerns on the battlefield. The U.S. believes Ukraine is healthy on munitions at the moment and the goal for the Biden administration is to ensure Ukraine is in the strongest position possible for future negotiations of its own choosing. The administration also hasn’t ruled out unveiling new sanctions pertinent to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Washington Post’s JEFF STEIN and ELLEN NAKASHIMA reported this morning that the Biden administration is mulling sanctions against Russia’s energy sector.
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