Monday, November 25, 2024

Trump bypasses Lighthizer. Again.

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy.
Nov 25, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Ari Hawkins

With help from Doug Palmer and Camille Gijs

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, left, listens as investor Scott Bessent speaks on the economy in Asheville, N.C., Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024.

Scott Bessent, the founder of the Connecticut-based hedge fund Key Square Group, was tapped to serve as Donald Trump's Treasury secretary. | Matt Kelley/AP

QUICK FIX

— President-elect Donald Trump has selected hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary, despite concerns over Wall Street’s commitment to sweeping tariffs.

— Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "does not agree" with removing Mexico from the USMCA.

— Canada will host a meeting of the commission overseeing the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in Vancouver.

It’s Monday, Nov. 25. Welcome back to Morning Trade. Got tips? Suggestions? Want to grab a coffee? Hit us up at: ahawkins@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com. You can follow us on X: @_AriHawkins, @GavinBade and @tradereporter.

Driving the day

LIGHTHIZER SNUBBED: Donald Trump has nominated hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary, dealing a blow to protectionist forces in Washington who favored his former trade chief, Robert Lighthizer, for the top economic role.

The founder of the Key Square Group investment firm was hailed by Trump as “one of the most brilliant men on Wall Street” and a “widely respected” investor and economic strategist.

Bessent, if confirmed by the Senate, would be one of several Wall Street billionaires lining Trump’s Cabinet. He’d be keenly focused on preventing disruptions to financial markets or the broader economy while implementing the president-elect’s agenda.

Trump’s choice of a seasoned financier could alleviate some economists’ fears over his tariff plan backfiring on the U.S. — much like then-President Herbert Hoover’s decision to sign the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which led to retaliation and the failure of overseas banks.

As a Yale University graduate who also taught there as a professor of economic history, Bessent “understands the impact of Smoot–Hawley tariffs in terms of aggravating the Great Depression. He would not be in favor of all tariffs all the time, the way Trump says,” Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, president of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute and an informal advisor to five U.S. presidents, told Morning Trade.

That could mean rejecting the most aggressive promises Trump made on the campaign trail out right — like imposing universal tariffs of 20 percent and swapping the income tax with tariffs — and pursuing more targeted (or strategic) tariffs aimed at select sectors and foreign adversaries like China.

The Treasury announcement comes on the heels of Trump’s decision to tap Wall Street CEO Howard Lutnick as Commerce secretary, whom Trump has suggested will oversee the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. (That's a move that would require Congress' buy-in, and it’s not clear whether Trump will actually end up demoting his yet-to-be-named USTR.)

Still, Trump’s picks to lead Commerce and Treasury are poised to aggravate hardcore protectionists, who have warned against Cabinet picks that hew close to Wall Street. Those decisions are leaving trade policy watchers wondering what role, if any, Lighthizer will play in trade and economic policy for the next Trump administration.

“Robert Emmet Lighthizer NEEDS to be Treasury secretary. Why is he not in the publicly disclosed mix? He is the BEST choice by far!” wrote Michael Stumo, CEO of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, on X, prior to the selection being made public.

Lori Wallach, the director of the left-leaning Rethink Trade and a longtime friend of the former USTR, trashed Bessent and Lutnick as free traders. In a separate post, Wallach highlighted remarks from Bessent where he claimed his goal for Trump would be to “save international trade [and] not end up looking like something with turn of the century tariffs.”

For now, Trump’s pro-tariff allies are projecting confidence: “The reason why this took so long is because Trump wanted somebody that not only the stock market would react positively to, but even more importantly, was unquestionably going to implement his agenda,” said one person close to Trump’s transition, who is also a close ally to Lighthizer. “[Bessent] told the president that he is 100 percent committed to implementing the trade and tariff agenda.”

 

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Around the World

MEXICO DISMISSES USMCA SCRUTINY: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Thursday played down Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s concerns over Mexico's trade ties with China.

“The prime minister does not agree to take Mexico out of the treaty. He told me very clearly and we agreed to continue talking,” Sheinbaum said during a daily press briefing, according to a rough translation, referring to the USMCA. She added that Canadian officials “have their own elections soon, so they also use these issues as part of an election campaign.”

The remarks come as both the United States and Canada escalate scrutiny on Mexico ahead of a scheduled 2026 review of the pact, which could lead to major changes to the deal. Trudeau indicated on Thursday that pushing Mexico out of the agreement was an option, although not his “first choice.”

But, he noted, “there have been real and genuine concerns raised about Chinese investment into Mexico that I brought up directly with the Mexican president.”

Meanwhile, Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly was in Washington last week, where she met with GOP Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.). In a briefing, she said the U.S. and Canada are on the same page when it comes to Mexico’s supposed role in helping China evade trade restrictions.

APPELLATE BODY STILL MIA: The facilitator of the reform of the dispute settlement body, Mauritius’ Ambassador to the WTO, Usha Dwarka-Canabady, urged WTO members last week to be more flexible to come up with a consolidated text to finally reform the moribund Appellate Body.

WTO members agreed in June 2022 to have a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism by 2024. And when they failed to reach agreement by the WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi in February, the group’s General Council meeting mid-December became the next target.

REGULATORY REVIEW

CPTPP COMMISSION MEETING: Canada will host a formal meeting in Vancouver this Wednesday and Thursday of the commission that oversees the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. However, don’t expect a final decision on China’s three-year-old application to join the regional trade agreement.

Costa Rica, Ecuador and Taiwan have also asked to join the pact, which recently welcomed the U.K. into its fold. At last year’s meeting in New Zealand, commission members said they had started “an information-gathering process … to gather factual information on whether aspirant economies can meet the CPTPP’s high standards.”

China’s bid is the most politically complicated because of the implications its membership would have for CPTPP relations with the United States.

OLIVE FIGHT UPDATE: The Biden administration on Friday challenged the EU’s request at the World Trade Organization to impose $35 million worth of trade sanctions on the United States in a dispute over U.S. duties on Spanish olives. The action sends the issue to arbitration to decide the actual retaliation amount.

 

Don't just read headlines—guide your organization's next move. POLITICO Pro's comprehensive Data Analysis tracks power shifts in Congress, ballot measures, and committee turnovers, giving you the deep context behind every policy decision. Learn more about what POLITICO Pro can do for you.

 
 
TRADE OVERNIGHT

— Trump taps loyalist Brooke Rollins for USDA chief in surprise pick, POLITICO reports.

— The Homeland Security Department added 29 Chinese companies to a list of entities suspected of ties to forced labor, per an announcement.

— U.S. allies try to convince each other that everything will be OK under Trump, POLITICO Pro reports.

— Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) won't rule out running for Senate again, POLITICO reports.

— Climate summit approves divisive $300 billion deal, POLITICO Pro reports.

THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: dpalmer@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and ahawkins@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

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