Monday, November 25, 2024

How Wall Street won the Treasury race

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By Sam Sutton

Presented by Financial Technology Association

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PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Dec. 2.

QUICK FIX

If you felt a gust of wind from out of the Northeast on Friday evening, it was the collective sigh of relief coming from New York’s financial district over Donald Trump’s selection of Scott Bessent to lead Treasury.

After a series of unorthodox Cabinet picks that shocked the policy world, the choice of the 62-year-old hedge fund executive is being praised by Wall Street heavyweights who had hoped the president-elect would select a more traditional candidate for his administration's most powerful economic post. While Bessent — once the chief investor at financier George Soros's firm — has been a vocal proponent of Trump’s agenda, he’s also viewed as a realist who will understand how policy shifts might ripple across markets and the global economy.

“The biggest risk is that you have ideologues pursuing policy regardless of consequence,” said Unlimited Funds CEO Bob Elliott, who previously led research at hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates. “The thing about a person who has run money for several decades is that they — almost by definition — have to be agile and responsive to market conditions. It's in their blood.”

To be certain, Bessent — who had flown under the radar of many policymakers prior to this campaign — will face steep challenges if confirmed. Trump has promised to simultaneously cut taxes, impose universal tariffs and unlock economic growth by boosting domestic energy production and slashing regulations. Corporate America likes a lot of that message — in theory — but reshaping the economy to Trump’s specifications could also disrupt supply chains, drive up prices and send interest rates even higher.

And it will be up to Bessent – who has no government experience – to sell markets, global leaders and the public on how it will all work.

Still, Wall Street’s comfort with him stands in contrast to how industry has reacted to Trump’s controversial selection of former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz for Attorney General before he withdrew or former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence. One senior official in a previous administration described Bessent as “being in a different league” than some of other Trump picks, adding that “he's a respected figure in the macro hedge fund community who has been a successful financial operator.”

The selection of Bessent follows a weeks-long process that people close to the transition have compared to The Hunger Games or the CBS reality contest Survivor (a program that shares creative DNA with Trump’s own former show, The Apprentice, in the form of producer Mark Burnett). As contenders circulated through Mar-a-Lago for interviews with Trump and his advisers, rumors swirled about new alliances, whose stock was climbing, and how each candidate might adhere to Trump’s sprawling economic policy vision.

Why does that matter?: The backbiting and public sniping that slowed Trump’s selection of a Treasury secretary also sharpened the battle lines on economic policies that will define his second administration. Different factions of his coalition fought openly over which candidate was most supportive of universal tariffs, or had the firmest understanding of how Wall Street would react to protectionism and new government borrowing.

The two-week fight over who would get the nod underscored the tough task Bessent would confront in the Treasury secretary’s job.

Trump says he wants to generate “trillions” in revenue from new tariffs and to have “a say” in Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. He also wants to keep the stock market humming, crush inflation and impose massive cuts to both the budget and the federal workforce. Inevitably, his Treasury secretary will have to shoulder the conflicts and contradictions that arise from that agenda.

While many in the financial services world celebrated Trump’s reelection, there has been underlying concern that his second administration could inject turbulence into the global economy. And investors are likely to have confidence in Bessent's understanding of the markets, said Josh Lipsky, the senior director of the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center.

Still, Bessent remains something of an unknown to many in public policy circles, and his leadership and political skills would be severely tested since he'd be spearheading major battles next year over the fate of Trump's tax cuts, the debt ceiling and potentially massive spending plans.

The official biography released by the Trump-Vance Transition team on Friday night highlighted some of the successful trades that Bessent had a hand in shaping as a top investor for Soros, including the famous shorting of the British pound and a highly lucrative trade bet against the Japanese yen. (Of course, as The NYT’s Matthew Goldstein noted, the release did not directly refer to Soros. The Democratic megadonor’s name is politically toxic in right-wing circles.)

Put another way: If confirmed, one Wall Street CEO told POLITICO that Bessent “would be amongst the most market savvy Treasury secretaries we’ve ever experienced.”

Bessent’s financial industry credentials aren’t earning him any praise on the left. “Wall Street may be breathing a sigh of relief at Scott Bessent’s nomination, but working people see no help coming their way,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren says in a new statement out this morning. “Mr. Bessent’s expertise is helping rich investors make more money, not cutting costs for families squeezed by corporate profiteering.”

Still, the Massachusetts Democrat says she plans to meet with Bessent before his confirmation hearing. “I do not know if Mr. Bessent will transfer his loyalty from Wall Street investors to America’s workers, but I am willing to work with anyone to advance the interests of working families,” she said.

IT’S MONDAY — It’s a short week but it’ll be newsy. As always, you can reach me at ssutton@politico.com and @samjsutton.

 

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Driving the Week

MONDAY … The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on “Lessons from the Basel Committee's Assessments of Individual Jurisdictions” at 9 a.m.

TUESDAY … The Consumer Confidence Index will be released at 10 a.m. … The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its November meeting at 2 p.m. …

WEDNESDAY … The first revision to third-quarter GDP will be released at 8:30 a.m. … The Commerce Department will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index for October at 10 a.m. …

THURSDAY … Thanksgiving Day …

FRIDAY … Texted apologies for bringing up politics at Thanksgiving dinner will be sent and received between 9:30 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. …

Friday Night Lights — Bessent was not the only major personnel decision Trump announced on Friday. Scott Turner, a former NFL player who leads the Center for Education Opportunity at the Trump-allied America First Policy Institute, was tapped to lead the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Katy O’Donnell reports. He’s expected to slash the department’s funding, reverse Biden-era fair housing policies and overhaul homelessness programs, all goals laid out by the Trump campaign.

Russell Vought, a major contributor to Project 2025 and deregulation proponent, was picked to return to lead the Office of Management and Budget, Katherine Tully-McManus reports.

— Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), one of only three GOP sponsors of a Democratic-led bill that would make it easier for employees to unionize, is Trump’s pick to lead the Labor Department, Lawrence Ukenye and Nick Niedzwiadek report.

— And on Saturday: Brooke Rollins, a Trump loyalist and America First Policy Institute co-founder, was tapped to lead the Department of Agriculture after weeks of intense internal fighting over the role, Meredith Lee Hill and Meridith McGraw report.

How Bessent got the nod — From POLITICO’s Irie Sentner, with assists from Eric Bazail-Eimil, Daniel Payne, Meredith Lee Hill and Victoria Guida. Infighting between Bessent and Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick “frustrated Trump, people familiar with the transition process said, and he decided to add more names to the mix. A day after announcing Lutnick would instead become Commerce secretary — with special authority over trade — he brought in former Federal Reserve board member Kevin Warsh and Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan for interviews at Mar-a-Lago on Wednesday afternoon.

“Neither sold the president on the job, the people said — and Warsh is expected to be a candidate instead to chair the Fed when that position opens in May 2026 — leaving the path open for Bessent to ultimately clinch the nomination.”

Opaque The NYT’s Ken Bensinger and David Fahrenthold: “President-elect Donald J. Trump is keeping secret the names of the donors who are funding his transition effort, a break from tradition that could make it impossible to see what interest groups, businesses or wealthy people are helping launch his second term.”

 

Want to know what's really happening with Congress's make-or-break spending fights? Get daily insider analysis of Hill negotiations, funding deadlines, and breaking developments—free in your inbox with Inside Congress. Subscribe now.

 
 
The Economy

Watch this space: Tariff prep — As Trump assembled his Cabinet after Election Day, companies started to prepare for potentially disruptive economic policies that might force them to change their supply chains. Paul Brashier, a vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, told Emily Stewart of Business Insider that many companies have sped up their shipping schedules to get as many goods as possible into the country before any new tariffs are implemented.

But the uncertainty around how and when Trump implements his protectionist trade agenda poses its own challenges. Businesses that reorient their supply chains — or stockpile inventory — in anticipation of a specific policy Trump previewed on the campaign trail run the risk of making a misstep, Michael Skordeles, the head of U.S. Economics at Truist, told MM.

Uncertainty in the form of new tariffs could come back to “bite profits for some companies in a real way,” said Skordeles. He added that business leaders are now in a position where they’re “having to try to get in front of it. Businesses are scrambling to try to figure out how to do that, and again, I think it makes them vulnerable.”

Snap poll: Edelman Smithfield commissioned a snap poll of 200 institutional investors after Election Day to assess the economic outlook for the second Trump era. Eighty percent of those surveyed said they are confident that the president-elect will grow the economy. Investors also expect the finance and real estate sectors to provide the greatest opportunities for institutional investors over the next two years.

First in MM: The fight over opportunity zones — With the opportunity zone tax incentive created under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set to expire, the Institute for Portfolio Alternatives is urging the incoming Trump administration to extend the program through at least 2028. The group is also asking the president-elect and Congress to “reinstate the step-up basis incentive and improve regulatory clarity regarding the replacement of designated Opportunity Zone census tracts,” according to a letter sent to Trump’s transition team. The group is also seeking the preservation of rules that apply to like-kind exchanges and business development companies.

Inflation report incomingBloomberg’s Vince Golle and Craig Stirling: “Stubborn US Inflation Set to Reinforce Fed’s Go-Slow Approach”

 

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Crypto

From Crypto Dad to Crypto Czar? — Former Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Chris Giancarlo is among the names being floated for a new crypto czar role dedicated to coordinating federal oversight of the $3 trillion cryptocurrency market, Declan Harty, Eleanor Mueller and Jasper Goodman report.

Lutnick moves to deepen ties with Tether Bloomberg’s David Pan and Todd Gillespie report that Lutnick is in talks with the controversial stablecoin business to support Cantor Fitzgerald’s planned initiative to lend dollars to clients who put up Bitcoin as collateral.

— Tether has drawn scrutiny from U.S. regulators and lawmakers, and Lutnick’s relationship with the stablecoin company via Cantor — which oversees its Treasury holdings — has already been a source of drama for the transition.

 

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At the regulators

Gallagher bows out — Former Wall Street regulator and Robinhood Chief Legal Officer Dan Gallagher said Friday he is not interested in taking over as SEC chair under Trump, Declan Harty reports. The former SEC commissioner had been viewed as a leading contender for the job.

Lizárraga plans to step down— SEC Commissioner Jaime Lizárraga announced Friday that he plans to step down from the Wall Street regulator early next year. In a statement, Lizárraga said he and his wife, who has been battling breast cancer, decided “it is in the best interests of our family to close this chapter in my 34-year public service journey.”

— With SEC Chair Gary Gensler also scheduled to leave the agency on Jan. 20, the SEC will have just three commissioners when Trump is inaugurated. One of the two GOP commissioners, Hester Peirce or Mark Uyeda, will likely serve as acting chair after Trump takes over.

Elon’s WorldJonathan Stempel of Reuters reports that a federal judge has rejected the SEC’s bid to sanction Elon Musk for failing to appear for court-sanctioned testimony for the agency’s investigation into his acquisition of Twitter — now known as X. The judge ruled that sanctions were unnecessary after Musk testified on Oct. 3 and covered the agency’s travel costs.

Jobs report

Laura Peavey has joined the Financial Services Forum as its new director of media and outreach. Peavey was communications director for the House Financial Services Committee and was the primary spokesperson for outgoing Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) and Republican members of the committee.

Next stepsAfter being defeated by Republican Bernie Moreno, Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) did not rule out a gubernatorial run in 2026 during an interview with CNN.

 

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