News: How Trump is shaking up Florida’s upcoming elections

Monday, November 25, 2024

How Trump is shaking up Florida’s upcoming elections

Nov 25, 2024

TOP LINE

Election season might feel over for now. But in Florida, it’s just getting started again.

Donald Trump’s cabinet picks drew heavily from the Sunshine State, sparking a chain reaction of Florida election news — and putting the president-elect’s adopted home state into the spotlight both directly and indirectly. His picks of Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) as national security advisor and then-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who immediately resigned from Congress as Attorney General are bringing two special elections to Florida at the start of 2025.

Gaetz has since withdrawn his name from the nomination (we’ll get to that later), and Trump has now tapped another Floridian, former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi. Gaetz then announced on Friday he did not intend to take his seat in the new session of Congress, after debate over whether he could procedurally stay, having won reelection this month.

That allowed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to make news on Friday: He announced the special election to fill FL-01, Gaetz’s seat, would take place on none other than April 1, April Fools’ Day. Waltz has not yet resigned — meaning DeSantis can’t pick a date for the special election to replace him.

That didn’t stop Trump from weighing in on the safe red FL-06 seat. On Saturday afternoon, Trump announced his full support for state Sen. Randy Fine, a strong ally in the statehouse. “Should he decide to enter this Race, Randy Fine has my Complete and Total Endorsement. RUN, RANDY RUN!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Saturday afternoon.

And Fine implied he intends to do just that. “It would be the honor of my life to be one of your footsoldiers,” Fine said in a post on X responding to Trump. “Your confidence is overwhelming and I will have news to share soon!”

Trump’s blessing almost guarantees Fine will take the deep-red seat in the Trump-loving state — even if we still have to wait for DeSantis to officially announce the new election first.

It’s not the only pick on DeSantis’ agenda. He also has to appoint someone to Sen. Marco Rubio ’s seat, after the Florida senator was tapped to be Trump’s Secretary of State. DeSantis has said his team has started a vetting process to decide who should take the seat.

Jockeying for Lara Trump, RNC co-chair and daughter-in-law to Trump, has already begun. But DeSantis — still making amends with Trump after his “Meatball Ron” era as a 2024 primary rival to the president-elect — may not want to hire someone with the Trump family name, especially as he weighs whether he wants to make a play for the seat in 2026, when it is up again.

He wouldn’t be the only one with eyes on 2026.

After Gaetz’s short stint as Trump’s choice for Attorney General, resignation from Congress and eventual nomination withdrawal, Gaetz isn’t being subtle with what he wants to do next.

When Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini posted on X that Gaetz “will be the next Governor of the State of Florida,” the Florida Republican responded soon after with a gif of the Florida state flag. That was in addition to a number of other posts saying that he missed campaigning and asking his followers “What’s next?”

There was speculation, after Trump’s surprise nomination of the Florida chaos agent, that Gaetz was looking to boost his name recognition ahead of what is shaping up to be a competitive Republican gubernatorial primary. And Gaetz, who many of his colleagues describe as clever and calculating, might be thinking two years ahead.

“I look forward to continuing the fight to save our country,” Gaetz said in another post after his withdrawal. “Just maybe from a different post.”

Happy Monday! I am Mia McCarthy, filling in for Madison today. Reach out to me at mmccarthy@politico.com or @Reporter_Mia

Madison (mfernandez@politico.com; @madfernandez61) will be back next week.

Days until the 2025 election: 344

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE — Republicans currently have 219 seats and Democrats have 213 seats. Just three House races are outstanding: The reelection bids of Republican Reps. John Duarte in CA-13, Michelle Steel in CA-45 and Mariannette Miller-Meeks in IA-01.

MAKING A COMEBACK — “Democratic officials are combing through granular election data, reevaluating their digital strategy and reaching out to Donald Trump’s voters as they attempt to pull themselves out of the political wilderness,” POLITICO’s Nick Reisman, Shia Kapos and Holly Otterbein write. “In 27 interviews across half a dozen states, the party’s elected officials, labor leaders and strategists described widespread acknowledgment that Democrats must win back working-class voters, particularly Latino men, and others without college degrees who helped hand the election to Trump. And in anguished conversations in the halls of Congress and state party headquarters from coast to coast, despair over the scale of Democrats’ losses are giving way to plans to combat their crisis.”

2026 WATCH — Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) wouldn’t rule out running for the Senate again, after he lost his seat to Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno. He also didn’t rule out a gubernatorial bid.

In an interview with Manu Raju on CNN’s “Inside Politics,” the Ohio Democrat said he’s “not dismissing anything at this point.” Ohio will have a special election to fill the vacancy left by Vice President-elect JD Vance.

IN MEMORIAM — Former presidential hopeful and senator Fred Harris died on Saturday, according to the Associated Press. The Oklahoma Democrat served in the Senate for eight years and unsuccessfully ran for president in 1976. He was 94.

IN THE CITY — In the swing states, turnout in the major cities trailed the rest of the state. The drops weren’t the same across neighborhoods, though, POLITICO’s Jessica Piper, Paroma Somi and Brakkton Booker write in this interactive on how Kamala Harris lost voters in the battleground’s biggest cities.

“Kamala Harris was banking on a robust turnout in Philadelphia, delivering her final campaign speech on the city’s famed “Rocky Steps” the night before Election Day,” they write. “It was intended to ignite a multi-racial coalition of voters to buttress against Donald Trump’s support across much of the rest of the state. Instead, neighborhoods across Philadelphia — and other major cities in the battleground states — shifted to the right.”

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: “We thought that D.C. needed some levity after the election and if we could bring folks together and remind them of a silly, fun time,” Ruchika Sharma, organizer and co-host of DC’s Jack Schlossberg look alike contest on Sunday.

Don't just read headlines—guide your organization's next move. POLITICO Pro's comprehensive Data Analysis tracks power shifts in Congress, ballot measures, and committee turnovers, giving you the deep context behind every policy decision. Learn more about what POLITICO Pro can do for you.