The Trump wave crashes into Washington

Presented by the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington.

Nov 06, 2024 View in browser   By Rachael Bade and Eli Okun Presented by  THE CATCH-UP HEADS UP — VP KAMALA HARRIS will speak at 4 p.m. at Howard University. She’s expected to call DONALD TRUMP to concede today, NBC’s Monica Alba, Yamiche Alcindor and Rebecca Shabad report. Donald Trump will inherit a Congress stocked by a new crop of MAGA Republicans eager to do his bidding. | Francis Chung/POLITICO THE WIDE-ANGLE VIEW — “Trump Has Humiliated His Foes,” by John F. Harris: “Harris may have been an imperfect candidate — the postmortems are vigorously underway on Wednesday morning — but she delivered the essential Democratic argument perfectly well: The Trump Era was something to be scraped off the national shoe. “Instead, there will be another helping placed on the national plate. His adversaries don’t have to pretend it tastes good. But, for now, they need to eat it.” THE MORNING AFTER — Democrats awoke this morning to a total nightmare — and now the reality is setting in, as the party comes to terms with the fact that they’re totally lost in the wilderness. The losses on the campaign trail continue, with Republican TIM SHEEHY defeating Democratic Sen. JON TESTER. Reps. SUSAN WILD (D-Pa.) and MATT CARTWRIGHT (D-Pa.) conceded to Republican challengers. Reps. DERRICK VAN ORDEN (R-Wis.), KEVIN KILEY (R-Calif.), JOHN JAMES (R-Mich.) and RYAN ZINKE (R-Mont.) won reelection. But here’s a bigger blow: The Cook Political Report predicts that Republicans will likely hold the House, creating a Republican trifecta in Washington. Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) is already eager to use budget reconciliation to pass party-line legislation on the economy and, notably, the border. Cue the Democratic mourning.  “The signs of a decisive defeat were staring us in the face all along. We were simply in denial about them or willfully blind to them, substituting magical thinking for actual analysis,” Rep. RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.) told NOTUS’ Reese Gorman.  Another House Democrat source was blunter to Punchbowl’s Max Cohen: “This is as bad as I’ve ever seen. This was a total and complete repudiation of the Democratic Party. People are not buying what we’re selling. Period.” Democrats are also realizing that 2025 could be worse than 2017. Back then at least, Republicans — chief among them then-Speaker PAUL RYAN — were largely skeptical of Trump and constantly worked to try to restrain his worst instincts. MIKE JOHNSON, who would almost certainly stay speaker, has effectively tied himself to Trump’s hip. So have other senior Republicans. Just consider this: We spent about two full years covering Hill Republicans begging Trump not to fire ROBERT MUELLER during the Russia probe, warning him over and over again that it would be the end of his presidency if he did (a la RICHARD NIXON’s Saturday Night Massacre). And yet, here’s House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE , essentially calling for the immediate termination of cases against Trump on X: “The American people have spoken: the lawfare must end. I call on Attorney General [MERRICK] GARLAND, [Manhattan DA] ALVIN BRAGG, and [Fulton County, Georgia, DA] FANI WILLIS to immediately terminate the politically-motivated prosecutions of President Donald Trump.” Meanwhile, in the Senate, most of those 2017 Trump skeptics — from JEFF FLAKE and BOB CORKER to PAT TOOMEY and JOHN McCAIN — are either gone or dead, and replaced now by what’s shaping up to be a new crop of MAGA Republicans eager to do Trump’s bidding. Don’t expect Democrats to all take the same lesson from last night’s whooping. This morning, Justice Democrats put out a statement calling for a “new era,” whereby the party rallies behind the Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ -aligned “Squad” of self-described “Democratic socialists.” But this is not the take of many other Dems. Instead, they find fault with the left’s language policing, progressive and permissive stance on immigration and embrace of the Green New Deal on everything from carbon emissions to electric vehicles. GEARING UP FOR DAY ONE — On the GOP side, Trump’s team is also vowing to hit the ground running with plans to totally upend Washington and unleash massive policy changes across the country and the world. — On NBC’s “Today” show, JASON MILLER said Trump will immediately reinstate his first-term immigration crackdown and start drilling with executive actions, per Brittany Gibson. — KAROLINE LEAVITT said on Fox News that the “largest mass deportation operation” will begin targeting millions of undocumented immigrants. — And ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. told NPR’s Steve Inskeep that they’re serious about working to undo water fluoridation — one of the 20th century’s signal public health achievements — on Day One, along with providing vaccine “information.” (Though Kennedy told NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard that he wouldn’t remove any vaccines or have “directly blocked” the FDA from authorizing the Covid shots. He said he’d rather be a White House health czar than HHS secretary.) WHERE UNCALLED SENATE RACES STAND: Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN leads Republican MIKE ROGERS by three-tenths of a percentage point in Michigan with 99 percent of the vote in. … Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN (D-Wis.) leads Republican ERIC HOVDE by about 1 point with 99 percent of the vote in. … Republican SAM BROWN is up by one-tenth of a point in Nevada. … Democratic Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO leads by 2.7 points in Arizona. … Republican DAVE McCORMICK is up by 0.7 points in Pennsylvania. Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at rbade@politico.com and eokun@politico.com.   A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association: Election Day has passed — but one thing never changes: Big Pharma wants to increase their profits at the expense of everyone else. That’s why Big Pharma’s top priority for Congress is a self-serving agenda called “delinking,” which would hand big drug companies a massive $32 billion windfall in higher profits, all while protecting their otherwise limitless pricing power and increasing health care costs for employers, patients and taxpayers. Stop Big Pharma’s “delinking” agenda.   4 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW A Donald Trump presidency may mean huge changes for Ukrainian troops. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo 1. THE RAMIFICATIONS: Beyond today’s pledges about Trump’s Day One moves, plenty of other transformations could be in the offing as he returns to the White House. Read this big rundown from across the POLITICO newsroom for a high-level look at his agenda. Plus: Foreign policy: Ukraine is worried that Trump will cut military aid and press Kyiv into accepting a deal to end the war with Russia that would see the invaders from Moscow officially taking Ukrainian territory, NYT’s Andrew Kramer reports. Around the world, his tariffs, unpredictability and distaste for multilateral agreements “could trigger new political and economic upheaval,” writes Bloomberg’s Daniel Flatley. Antitrust: Experts think Trump will probably pull back, at least somewhat, from the Biden administration’s aggressive approach on antitrust enforcement, Reuters’ Jody Godoy reports. The possibility of breaking up Google now looks more remote, and more merger settlements are likely. Targeting enemies: “Trump promised to get revenge. Here are his targets,” by Josh Gerstein (who is himself on the list) Pentagon: You can probably say goodbye to President JOE BIDEN’s abortion travel reimbursement policy for troops — and hello to the return of a transgender military ban, Connor O’Brien and Joe Gould report. Diversity initiatives could be out, Confederate base names could be back in, and U.S. Space Command may head to Alabama. Critics are perhaps most concerned about Trump politicizing the military and using the troops against domestic protesters. Crypto: Markets for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared today on the prospect of getting a favorable environment under Trump, AP’s Kelvin Chan reports. Fed: Trump could make Fed Chair JEROME POWELL’s life harder in a couple of ways, Bloomberg’s Amara Omeokwe reports. Not only are critics concerned that he could fire Powell or politically interfere in monetary policy decisions; the Fed may also have to adjust its interest-rate approach if Trump’s policies again worsen inflation, as economists expect. From 30,000 feet: “America stands on the precipice of an authoritarian style of governance never before seen in its 248-year history,” NYT’s Lisa Lerer reports.   REGISTER NOW: Join POLITICO and Capital One for a deep-dive discussion with Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and other housing experts on how to fix America’s housing crisis and build a foundation for financial prosperity. Register to attend in-person or virtually here.     2. THE POSTMORTEMS: The press is full of reporting and takes today on why Trump won and Harris lost. Trump’s stunning inroads with Latino, Black and male voters, and his assembling of a broad working-class coalition, could point to an American political realignment — though his gains across the board also indicate near-universal discontent that may owe more to the economic status quo. Regardless, Trump has proven that he’s the leader of a durable, new political movement in America, not a 2016 aberration nor a conventional politician who’d be set back by scandal, NYT’s Peter Baker writes. Other takeaways: So much for ground game: In the end, Harris’ massive operation compared to Trump’s outsourced one didn’t matter, Eli Stokols, Adam Wren, Steven Shepard and Jennifer Haberkorn write. Nor did the other traditional signifiers of political success, from fundraising to debate performance, NYT’s Glenn Thrush notes. Harris was the incumbent: Quite literally, Democrats swapped the sitting president for the sitting VP at a time when incumbent governments were falling across the world. And on the trail, Harris “never sufficiently buried Biden’s ghost, severely hamstringing her ability to sell voters on the idea that hers was the turn-the-page candidacy,” Chris Cadelago and Holly Otterbein report. “It happened, simply, because Harris refused to make a clean break.” CNN’s Edward Dovere leads his analysis of how she lost with her infamous “not a thing that comes to mind” moment on “The View.” Other Dems point fingers at her data operation; at her relatively cautious approach to a radically transformed information environment; and, of course, at Biden himself. Abortion: Even the unpopular end of Roe v. Wade couldn’t save Democrats, as Trump worked hard to back away from the most socially conservative factions of his party and present himself as a relative moderate on abortion, Alice Miranda Ollstein and Megan Messerly report. The moment Trump decided to oppose a national abortion ban is what leads the big tick-tock on how he won from WaPo’s Michael Scherer, Josh Dawsey, Ashley Parker and Tyler Pager. Smart big-picture read: “Pariah, Felon, President-Elect: How Trump Fought His Way Back to Power,” by NYT’s Matt Flegenheimer, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan: “Day after day, his team’s decision-making revolved principally around what he wanted, what would soothe and sate him. And his instincts, as ever, were guided by raw impulses, a tendency toward race-baiting and near-boundless risk tolerance. … His path back to Washington was the product of foresight and chance, brazen calculation and Mr. Trump’s intuitive political skills amid almost unfathomable campaign volatility. As much as anything, it required figures at every rung of American civic and political life making choices that helped deliver Mr. Trump to this point.” 3. RANKED-CHOICE ISN’T CHOSEN: Other than in D.C., measures to implement ranked-choice voting and/or open primaries tanked, mostly across the West — a major setback for the democracy reform movement. Voters rejected the idea in Idaho, Missouri, Nevada and Oregon, and the “no” vote is leading in Colorado too. Meanwhile, an effort to repeal Alaska’s ranked-choice system — which has helped moderates like GOP Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI and Democratic Rep. MARY PELTOLA win in recent years — is currently narrowly ahead, 51 percent to 49 percent. The rundown from WaPo 4. THE DOG THAT (MOSTLY) DIDN’T BARK: Despite ample warnings of threats and disruptions leading up to Nov. 5, Election Day mostly proceeded pretty smoothly across the country. The biggest scares were bomb threats at polling places in swing states that ended up being hoaxes, per the AP. Of course, disinformation and falsehoods permeated the whole campaign, including Russian-stoked viral lies and largely baseless Trump claims of fraud as late as yesterday.   A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association: Stop Big Pharma from undermining competition and increasing costs for employers, patients and taxpayers.   PLAYBOOKERS Jamie Dimon doesn’t plan to join the Trump administration. Mike DeWine will have to select a replacement for JD Vance. TRANSITION — Phil Bianchi is now VP of government relations at JPMorganChase, focused on state and local government relations for card services and payments. He previously was a public policy adviser at Squire Patton Boggs. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.   Follow us on Twitter Rachael Bade @rachaelmbade Eugene Daniels @EugeneDaniels2 Ryan Lizza @RyanLizza Eli Okun @eliokun Garrett Ross @garrett_ross   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters Follow us

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