| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  “You really can’t ‘Trump-proof,’” one U.S. official said. “You can ‘Trump delay,’ you can throw sand in the gears, but there is no way short of legislation to ‘Trump-proof.’” | Carolyn Kaster/AP | With help from Jack Detsch, Paul McLeary and Maggie Miller Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric It’s not even been a day after DONALD TRUMP’s presidential election victory and Washington’s national security and diplomatic officials are already taking stock of what it will mean for the next four years. U.S. foreign policy is in for another major shake-up, to say the least. NatSec Daily spoke to multiple U.S. officials and foreign diplomats as well as foreign policy analysts about what a second Trump term means for foreign policy. Here’s a primer on what we’re hearing so far: 1. Anxiety, but not full despondency, on NATO and Ukraine: European officials who spoke to NatSec Daily said there’s a sense of unease for what a second Trump term means, but they add it’s not all doom and gloom. For starters, Europe has weathered the Trump storm before, and is much more prepared for round two — and with higher defense spending numbers to show for it. “I think the reaction not just here in Finland, but across Europe when I've spoken with my colleagues, is it's pretty calm,” ELINA VALTONEN , Finland’s foreign minister, told NatSec Daily. She conceded “There’s some nervousness” but said “We have experienced him already for one term in office, which is not to say that he will be exactly the same this time around.” European officials also say that Russia’s deepening cooperation with China, North Korea and Iran will help Ukraine in its appeals to Trump to continue U.S. support for Kyiv. “Trump wants to be tough on China, but he can’t do it by handing Putin a victory in Ukraine, they’re too interlinked,” said another senior European official, speaking on condition of anonymity. 2. Few, if any, ways to ‘Trump-proof’ foreign policy: Officials in President JOE BIDEN’s administration are already talking through how if at all they can cement some foreign policy gains for Biden in a way that Trump can’t undo, as our own NAHAL TOOSI and your lead newsletter writer report. “You really can’t ‘Trump-proof,’” one U.S. official said. “You can ‘Trump delay,’ you can throw sand in the gears, but there is no way short of legislation to ‘Trump-proof.’” 3. Even higher tensions with China on the horizon: President JOE BIDEN has carefully tried to defuse some tensions with China through a steady drumbeat of meetings between his cabinet members and top Chinese officials. Trump could undo all that and usher in a new era of heightened tensions with Beijing, from ramping up the U.S. military footprint in the Indo-Pacific to unleashing a new barrage of economic warfare including sanctions and export controls against China. Still, Trump’s return to the Oval Office could be a mixed blessing for rattled U.S. allies in the region. If he takes a more combative stance with Beijing, he has also castigated allies for taking advantage of U.S. military protection and even suggested Taiwan should pay the U.S. for protection. 4. More support for Israel: As with Ukraine, Trump vowed to bring peace to the Middle East without actually offering up any specifics on how he would do it. Still, Trump’s first term was marked by strongly pro-Israel policies such as moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, as well as accepting Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has called Trump the “best friend that Israel has ever had in the White House.” That amounts to good news for Israel’s strongest supporters in Washington and bad news for Israel’s sharpest critics as it carries out its controversial military campaign against the Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups. Israel has faced pressure from the Biden administration to pare back its military offensives in Gaza and Lebanon and increase the delivery of humanitarian aid to embattled civilians in Gaza. While still unclear, it’s unlikely Trump would keep this pressure on Israel, several U.S. officials speculated. Trump’s former ambassador to Israel, DAVID FRIEDMAN, also suggested the U.S. should support Israel in annexing the West Bank.
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The F-35 helps secure our world. The program unites valued allies and partners, powers small businesses, and creates high-paying, high-tech jobs for workers in critical innovation fields. Learn more. | | | | | UKRAINE AID CRUNCH: The Biden administration is trying to portion out the last $6 billion in security assistance for Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump returns to office, our own PAUL MCLEARY and JACK DETSCH report. As Paul and Jack write, it’s the White House’s only chance to send new equipment to Ukraine ahead of inauguration day, as Kyiv faces a renewed Russian assault in the east. The administration can give Ukraine $4.3 billion to pull existing Pentagon stocks and has $2.1 billion on hand to put in more orders for weapons with U.S. defense contractors. Unlike other steps the Biden administration can take during the “lame duck” period, it’s not remotely Trump-proof . Since it often takes months for American weapons to get to Ukraine’s frontlines, Trump might be able to halt the shipments before they get to the battlefield. RUTTE’S DPRK WARNING: NATO Secretary-General MARK RUTTE is warning that the deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine is marking a key turning point that should demand greater Western action in response. In an opinion piece for POLITICO, Rutte argued that allies “need to do much more in order to shift the conflict’s trajectory. We need to raise the cost for Putin and his enabling authoritarian friends.” He added that NATO needs to shore up partnerships with partners in the Indo-Pacific such as South Korea and step up defense production and intelligence-sharing collaborations in response to the threats now posed by North Korea. TRUMP’S HOTLINE BLING: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU became the first world leader to call Trump after the election was called in his favor. According to a statement from the prime minister’s office, the men spoke about the U.S. election and the threat posed by Iran. “The conversation was warm and friendly,” the statement said. “The prime minister congratulated him on his victory in the election, and the two agreed to work together for the sake of Israel’s security.” IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team:@dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130,and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | THE RUMOR RACE BEGINS: Across Washington, foreign diplomats are scrambling to hoover up as much information, and rumors, as they can on who would staff Trump’s foreign policy team, according to interviews with multiple foreign diplomats who were granted anonymity to discuss internal diplomatic discussions. “Our capitals can’t get enough, even if they’re just second-hand rumors,” said one European diplomat. “Personnel is policy. Who Trump picks for secretary of state or national security advisor could say a lot about his thinking on Ukraine and NATO.” “We want to hit the ground as fast as we can to make inroads with the new team,” added an East African diplomat. “The sooner we know who’s who, the sooner we can start discussions with them on their policy agenda so our capital can plan accordingly.” The rumor mill about who could be Trump’s secretary of state and defense is already in full swing. (Side note: POLITICO has you covered on both .) Foreign diplomats are also working to suss out who would take on lower-ranking but influential jobs like undersecretaries of defense, assistant secretaries of state, and senior directors at the White House National Security Council. “It may be weeks or months until we know for sure, but the game has begun,” said another European diplomat.
| | | SAFE AND SECURE: The 2024 U.S. elections were secure and there was “no evidence of malicious activity,” JEN EASTERLY, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, said Wednesday morning, as our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in (for pros!). “Our election infrastructure has never been more secure and the election community never better prepared to deliver safe, secure, free and fair elections for the American people,” Easterly said in a statement. Easterly’s comments were made in the wake of an election day that saw no major cyber threats, but did see polling places in states including Georgia, Michigan and Arizona targeted by bomb threats linked to Russian-based email addresses. Former CISA Director CHRIS KREBS made similar comments following the presidential election in 2020. His comments led then-President Trump to fire him. Krebs tweeted Wednesday that “the 2024 cycle has been a safe and secure election.”
| | TRUMP’S DEFENSE PRIORITIES: Trump’s promised a lot of immediate action when it comes to the military and the Pentagon. As our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD report , Trump already has a list of potential changes to defense policy that he’ll work on almost immediately after taking office in January. One of the most notable policy changes will focus on abortion: Trump is expected to end a Biden policy that allows troops to obtain leave and be reimbursed for the cost of traveling to seek abortions and other reproductive care if they’re in states where abortion access is restricted. He’s also expected to end diversity and inclusion efforts at the Pentagon and reinstate bans on transgender service members in the military, restore the former names of bases that previously honored Confederate generals and change the colors on Air Force One. Some of these measures, including the Confederate general names, are likely to be blocked by bipartisan groups of lawmakers on Capitol Hill, but others will likely sail through, especially if Republicans control the House of Representatives.
| | THE NATSEC SURVIVORS: A gamut of key national security players on Capitol Hill survived tough House and Senate re-election battles, as other prominent lawmakers will be saying goodbye to the halls of Congress. Allies of Armenia Reps. MIKE LAWLER (R-N.Y.) and TOM KEAN (R-N.J.) won their re-election battles, as did Senate Armed Services Committee member Sen. DEB FISCHER (R-Neb.). Meanwhile, House Armed Services Committee member Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.) won her highly-contested Senate race to replace outgoing Democratic Sen. DEBBIE STABENOW. But there were plenty of losses, especially among vulnerable Democrats who had outsized influence on national security. In Pennsylvania, Rep. MATT CARTWRIGHT (D-Penn.), whose district contains the munitions factory Zelenskyy visited in September, lost re-election by a narrow margin. The top Senate defense appropriator, Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) lost to veteran TIM SHEEHY in the Big Sky state’s marquee race. And cyber policy specialist Sen. JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.) is hanging on narrowly against veteran SAM BROWN.
| | WHO’S KEEPING QUIET: A lot of world leaders wasted no time in congratulating Trump on his election win, as Eric reported for our elections blog this morning (and our own SEB STARCEVIC did in Brussels). But as we hit publication on this newsletter, there are still a few leaders and governments keeping their cards close to their chests. Some of the members of the Axis of Upheaval are keeping quiet. The Kremlin said today that Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN would not congratulate Trump today. “I am not aware of the president’s plans to congratulate Trump on the election,”Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said during a morning press briefing. He argued that “we are talking about an unfriendly country that is both directly and indirectly involved in the war against our state,” though he noted the Kremlin will work with the U.S. government. There have also been no pronouncements from Iranian Supreme Leader ALI KHAMENEI or Cuban President MIGUEL DÍAZ-CANEL about the election results, or missile barrages from North Korea in response. Some allies are also holding their fire. Closer to home, Mexican President CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM said at her morning press conference today she would await the release of final and complete results before her government would offer congratulations, though she acknowledged media projections that Trump had won. "To all Mexicans, there is no reason to worry,” Sheinbaum said. “Mexico will always prevail. We are a free, independent, sovereign nation and there will be a good relationship with the United States."
| | — Leaving your job in response to the election? Considering a career change? Let us know. Email your news to rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com
| | — Americas Quarterly: What Trump’s victory means for Latin America — NICHOLAS BARIYO, The Wall Street Journal: The new investment superpower outflanking China and the U.S. in Africa — ZVI BAR’EL, Haaretz: The two-state sword will hang over Israel no matter who is in the White House
| | — Georgetown University's Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues, 9 a.m.: China and transnational crime: Fentanyl and beyond — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 10 a.m. and the Smithsonian Institution: The Smithsonian Cultural Rescue Initiative and "Safeguarding Ukraine's Cultural Heritage from Russia's War." — Council on American-Islamic Relations, 10 a.m.: Announcing the results of a 2024 national presidential exit poll of American Muslim voters. — United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: “First in War, First in Peace: Building Post-Conflict Stability and Democracy," focusing on the example of George Washington and the role of military veterans in securing stability and democracy. — German Marshall Fund of the United States, 10:30 a.m.: The U.S. election: Implications for the U.S., the EU, and global politics — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12 p.m.: U.S. election 2024: Views from the Middle East — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: Funding allied innovation: Ensuring advanced capabilities for the future warfighter Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who is poised to shake up our entire foreign policy in this newsletter. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is working to Rosie-proof this newsletter.
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