Wednesday, November 6, 2024

GOP nears House (and trifecta) clinch

An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead
Nov 06, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Anthony Adragna

With assists from POLITICO's Congress team

House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks with supporters.

One Republican working closely on House races believes that, at worst, the party will only lose one seat, but they believe the GOP could pick up a seat or two. | Matthew Hinton/AP

NEARING A GOP TRIFECTA

Control of the House remains uncalled nearly 24 hours after polls closed, but Republicans appear to be in the driver’s seat for control of the chamber. Democrats would need to nearly run the table on the toss-up races yet to be called to capture a majority.

One Republican working closely on House races believes that, at worst, the party will only lose one seat, but they believe the GOP could pick up a seat or two. (Remember: Republicans currently have a 220-212 advantage in the chamber). Democrats, meanwhile, are holding out hope that late-breaking ballots in California turn in their favor, a picture that often takes days or weeks to fully come into focus.

Speaker Mike Johnson, in particular, projected confidence that, as remaining votes are counted, Republicans will retain their incredibly thin House majority.

“The latest data and trends indicate that when all the votes are tabulated, Republicans will have held our majority, even though we faced a map with 18 Biden-won seats,” the speaker said in a statement Wednesday morning.

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the House GOP campaign arm’s chair, echoed that confidence in a Wednesday interview on Fox News, crediting the party’s performance in large part to former President Donald Trump. Trump “was a net positive everywhere across the country for Republicans,” he said.

AP winners called throughout the day: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.); Sen.-elect Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.); Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.); Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.); Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.); Rep. John James (R-Mich.): Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.); Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas); Rep.-elect Nellie Pou (D-N.J.); Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.); Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio)

A few more observations as we survey the national landscape of results:

Some shocking squeakers: A number of races remain uncalled that were under the radar going into the election. Examples include California’s 21st, where Democratic Rep. Jim Costa is narrowly up; Nevada’s 3rd, where Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) is clinging to a tiny lead despite a lack of outside GOP help for candidate Mark Robertson; and Colorado’s 3rd, where the GOP’s Jeff Hurd is only just ahead of Adam Frisch, who raised a boatload of money when running against Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) in the seat.

Existing moderates thrive: Both parties touted battle-tested incumbents who could survive in tough terrain, and some of the biggest bipartisan dealmakers appear to have hung on. That includes centrists like Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J). Several others are currently leading in tough territory, though the Associated Press has not called their races yet.

Same-party showdowns: Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), one of the final two House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, is locked in a tight battle with Trump-backed Jerrod Sessler as more votes are counted in Washington. And Lateefah Simon and Sam Liccardo appear to have the inside track in Democrat-on-Democrat showdowns in California, though the races have not been formally called.

— Anthony Adragna, with an assist from Daniella Diaz

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, Nov. 6, where Republicans continue to celebrate Donald Trump’s victory and significant gains in the now GOP-led Senate, while we await a final verdict on the House.

 

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FUND THE GOVERNMENT OR PUNT? IT’S TRUMP’S CALL. 

House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) has been saying it for months: The next president will have a major say in whether a government funding deal comes together by the end of December.

That role is now Trump’s, and Republicans are expected to defer to whatever he wants, whether that’s a lame-duck spending deal or an early 2025 funding accord, as conservatives have pushed.

The president-elect has been here before. In 2016, GOP leaders kicked the funding deadline into his first term. Some congressional Republicans say Trump didn’t end up notably influencing the funding deal eventually wrapped up the following spring, however, and that the delay only complicated his first months in office while hurting federal agencies running on autopilot budgets for more than seven months. It also saddled newly elected lawmakers with the unfinished work of the previous Congress.

“No new president should have to face that,” Cole told us before the election, while vowing to support whatever Trump decides. “It’s not fair to them. It’s not fair to any of the new members coming in because this Congress doesn’t want to do its job in the timeframe it was given.”

Faced with a funding deadline, especially the Dec. 20 cliff that’s now set to hit the Friday before Christmas, most lawmakers are typically inclined to punt and fly home. But even anticipating a Trump win, Republican appropriators have said in recent months that they’d rather get a deal done by December and clear the decks for 2025, when a fight over expiring tax cuts promises to suck up all the oxygen on Capitol Hill.

Weighing in post-election, Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, who’s also a senior appropriator, didn’t outright express his preference for striking an agreement before the end of the year when asked about next steps under a soon-to-be Republican-controlled White House and Senate.

“I think getting our work done — which, no matter who’s been in the majority, we haven’t been able to do that very well for quite a while — deciding how to spend the discretionary money that we have, which is not a very big part of what we spend every year anymore, is really important,” he said. “I would hope we would put a greater priority than the current Senate has on doing the basic work of government, which is deciding how much to spend and getting it done as close to regular order as possible.”

McConnell also didn’t indicate what he wants to do after stepping down from leadership, with many speculating that he could snatch up a prime appropriations spot, like chair of the defense spending subpanel.

“I haven't made a decision,” he said, adding that he hopes his colleagues seriously consider his input as a former majority leader, regardless. “And I don't think it'll have anything to do with committee assignments.”

Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes, with help from Katherine Tully-McManus

HOUSE GOP’S FLOOR BRAWL

While you were likely glued to exit polls or prepping for a late election night, House Republicans found themselves in a scramble after a conservative duo, by all accounts, went rogue and for now successfully killed a bipartisan Social Security bill and attached discharge petition.

The incident flew under the radar during Tuesday’s 5 p.m. pro forma session, during which Reps. Andy Harris (R-Md.) and Bob Good (R-Va.) were the only lawmakers in the chamber. Good moved to effectively pigeonhole the bill. Floor staff could be overheard telling Harris that he couldn’t entertain Good’s motion but after several minutes of off-mic conversations, Harris did just that.

The minutes-long sessions are generally low or no drama.

Leadership hasn’t yet publicly outlined a next step. But supporters of the bill, which eliminates two provisions that limit benefits for some Americans who also receive government pensions, say there are active discussions about how to revive it and several potential pathways through which to do so.

It’s the latest drama related to the bill: As we scooped in late September , House Republicans, including members of leadership, are weighing raising the threshold for a discharge petition as part of the rules package for the 119th Congress amid frustration that Reps. Garret Graves (R-La.) and Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), two retiring members, combined forces to leapfrog leadership on this particular petition.

But many Republicans also view what Harris and Good did as a scorched earth tactic that would establish a new precedent and invite a wave of bad behavior not only from Republicans but also Democrats. Once one member decides to surprise their colleagues with a unanimous consent request, which is typically telegraphed behind the scenes, it’s only a matter of time before someone else tries to catch their colleagues sleeping. And if that starts happening, things quickly become chaotic for an already chaotic chamber.

There’s at least some levity: Graves quipped to us in a statement after the floor surprise: “Now that this new precedent has been created, I plan to seek UC to send every American a pony.”

Keep an eye on Friday’s pro forma session. We’re told several members will now likely be on hand to try to prevent, or enact, the next step in this saga.

— Jordain Carney 

HUDDLE HOTDISH

Former Democratic presidential candidate Dean Phillips had some deep thoughts the day after the election.

George Helmy got the short straw for the Senate pro forma session after his party’s resounding defeat the night before.

Lindsey Graham said his party would “hit the ground running on budget reconciliation” if Republicans hold the House.

Sheldon Whitehouse quoted Lord of the Rings.

QUICK LINKS 

Republican Mike Lawler retains pivotal suburban NYC House seat, from Nick Reisman

House Democrats Need New Ethics Chief Following Wild Concession, from Maeve Sheehy in BGov

Rep. Jim Clyburn Reflects On Unusual Voting Patterns In Rural African American Communities, from Laura Coates at SiriusXM

Julie Johnson just made history as the first LGBTQ+ person ever elected to Congress from the South, from Ariel Messman-Rucker in The Advocate

Massie for Secretary of Agriculture? KY Congressman addresses talk of Trump admin role, from Austin Horn and David Catanese at The Lexington Herald Leader

Federal judge weighs mental health in sentencing of Richmond man who threatened Ted Cruz , from Monroe Trombly in Houston Landing

TRANSITIONS 

Elections mean major shakeups. Send us your next steps to insidecongress@politico.com!

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House is out.

The Senate is out.

THURSDAY AROUND THE HILL

Continuing to hit refresh on those remaining House and Senate race results.

Trivia

TUESDAY’S ANSWER: No one knew the internal law book Benjamin Franklin said was in the hands of members of the continental Congress. It was “The Law of Nations” by Emer de Vattel.

TODAY’S QUESTION: When was the last Congress during which Republicans controlled 55 seats in the Senate?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

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