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🤔 My Thoughts Well, that's a doozy of a jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 114,000 vs. 176,000 expected. The Sahm rule, which states that a recession is triggered when unemployment rises 50 bps from it's 12-month low, has correctly predicted every recession since 1970. Well, unemployment just jumped to 4.1%...up 50 bps from its 12-month low. Typically, rate cuts follow the start of a recession. So, if Powell cuts in September, that will mean we are likely in a recession. |
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A Wealthpin Publication |
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