Friday, August 2, 2024

U.S. enters recession?

The biggest crash since 1987
 
   
     
Friday, August 2nd
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“People don't want their lives fixed. Nobody wants their problems solved. Their dramas. Their distractions. Their stories resolved. Their messed cleaned up. Because what would they have left? Just the big scary unknown.”

- Chuck Palahniuk
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Markets Today
 
 
🌏 Asia-Pacific: Down
 
🇪🇺 Europe: Down

🇺🇸 United States: Down

🛢️ Oil: Down

Crypto: Up
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Major Market Events 
 
 
Non-farm payrolls: A MAJOR miss on non-farm payrolls this morning (link)
 
Biggest crash since 1987: Japanese equities are melting down (link)
 
U.S. enters recession: This recession indicator has correctly predicted every recession since 1970 (link)
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🤔 My Thoughts 
 
 
Well, that's a doozy of a jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 114,000 vs. 176,000 expected. The Sahm rule, which states that a recession is triggered when unemployment rises 50 bps from it's 12-month low, has correctly predicted every recession since 1970. 

Well, unemployment just jumped to 4.1%...up 50 bps from its 12-month low. Typically, rate cuts follow the start of a recession. So, if Powell cuts in September, that will mean we are likely in a recession.
To Better Trading,

Alex Reid
Wealthpin
 
WealthPin
   
     
   
 

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