THE BUZZ: POWER PLAYS — Democrats are all-but guaranteed to keep their supermajority in Sacramento next year. The question is exactly how big that supermajority will be. Leaders in the Assembly and Senate are prepared to go to battle this year to protect a handful of vulnerable Democrats and vacant seats that could flip to Republicans. The GOP, for its part, is fending off a few potential flips of its own while trying to chip away at Democrats’ overwhelming power in California. Complicating the equation for Democrats is that their leadership is brand new to the game of protecting incumbents. This year will be the first test for Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and Senate President pro Tem Mike McGuire. We’re also keeping an eye on what could be some interesting races to fill vacancies left by outgoing Democratic Assemblymember Brian Maienschein and Republican state Sen. Scott Wilk. Expect campaigning to pick up when session ends in August, but there’s already money pouring in for the top targets. The latest figures, reported this week, reflect cash raised as of June 30, and offer a better picture of the fights to come as we head into the thick of election year. VULNERABLE DEMOCRATS: — Assemblymember Pilar Schiavo, Santa Clarita Democrat: This is the marquee race for Democrats this year. Schiavo won her seat in 2022 by just 522 votes after Democrats spent some serious cash to box out Republican incumbent Suzette Martinez Valladares. She’s high on the GOP’s target list this year, and is running against Patrick Gipson, a retired Los Angeles County sheriff’s deputy who came within 521 votes of Schiavo in the March primary. Schiavo reports raising about $653,600 since the start of the year, bringing her total cash on hand to just over $1 million. Gipson has raised just over $166,800 in the same time period, and has $127,000 cash on hand. — Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria, Fresno Democrat: Soria for months has been far outraising her Republican opponent, former state tax auditor Joanna Garcia Rose, but that doesn’t put her in the clear. The GOP pick managed to win about 1,000 more votes than the incumbent in the March primary despite having only a fraction of her financial backing. The latest fundraising figures show that pattern continuing, with Soria raising more than $944,000 in the first half of the year, with about $1.5 million in cash, compared to Garcia Rose’s modest haul of just $92,000 from the same period and $65,000 in cash. — State Sen. Josh Newman, Fullerton Democrat: After a bit of a candidate shuffle brought on by redistricting and the departure of state Sen. Dave Min, and a crowded primary race that saw a slew of outside spending, Newman is heading into a competitive general election matchup with former Republican state legislator Steven Choi, who lost his Assembly seat to Cottie Petrie-Norris in 2022. Newman has so far raised more than $1.3 million this year, ending June with about $448,000 in cash compared to Choi, who reported $55,769 on hand. VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS: — Assemblymember Laurie Davies, Oceanside Republican: Democrats have a slight edge in voter registration in this district thanks to a large swath of San Diego County residents that are trending blue, and it’s one of their top targets to flip this year. Former San Clemente Mayor Chris Duncan lost to Davies by about 5 points last cycle, and is looking for a rematch this year. Davies has raised over $362,000 since the start of the year, with many of her fellow Assembly Republicans maxing out to her campaign. She ended June with $714,608 in cash. Duncan is not far behind, due in no small part to the outpouring of support from the Assembly’s Democratic supermajority. He raised $821,453 in the first six months and ended with about $593,000 in cash. — Assemblymember Greg Wallis, Rancho Mirage Republican: Democrat Christy Holstege is back this year after losing to Wallis by a mere 85 votes in 2022. The California Democratic Party has sent more than $272,000 to the Holstege campaign since December, state records show. As of June she had raised $733,571 since the start of the year and had $664,706 in cash. Wallis raised about $524,385 in the same time period thanks to help from fellow Republicans and about $6,000 from Netflix CEO Reed Hastings, normally a Democratic mega donor who’s also a staunch charter schools advocate. — Assemblymember Josh Hoover, Folsom Republican: Democrats dropped some serious cash trying to protect Ken Cooley in 2022, only for Hoover to nab the seat by less than 1 percentage point. This cycle, the Republican is facing a challenge from Citrus Heights Councilmember Porsche Middleton. Middleton raised $278,249 with $177,950 cash on hand. Hoover goes into the general election with a comparatively heftier warchest of $653,135 having raised more than $433,000. — State Sen. Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh, Yucaipa Republican: Ochoa Bogh is facing a challenge from Palm Springs City Councilmember Lisa Middleton this year in her competitive, Republican-leaning district. The incumbent ended June with $803,381 in cash after raising about $483,000 in the first half of the year. Middleton has about $226,000 on hand heading into November. GOOD MORNING. Happy Friday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Out of state for personal travel. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis is in charge until he returns this weekend.
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