🎯 Axios PM: New recession fears

Plus: Hot travel tip | Friday, August 02, 2024

Open in app View in browser   Presented By United for Democracy   Axios PM By Mike Allen · Aug 02, 2024 Happy Friday! Today's newsletter, edited by Sam Baker, is 477 words, a 2-min. read. Thanks to Sheryl Miller for copy editing.     1 big thing: Economic red flags   Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios   Today's jobs numbers confirm that something is going wrong in the American economy — and may suggest that a recession is imminent. The new data is a sign that the Fed should have started cutting interest rates months ago, Axios Macro co-author Neil Irwin writes. "Yellow flags had started to pop up in the labor market data over the past few months, but now the flags are turning red," Nick Bunker, of Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote in a note. 📉 The big picture: The July employment numbers showed weak job creation and the highest unemployment rate since October 2021. The jobless rate is still low, but in a healthy economy, the kind of increase we've seen this year — a gain of 0.6 percentage points since January — simply doesn't happen. When it does, it's usually a warning sign that a recession is imminent. 🔮 What we're watching: Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields have plunged to 3.82% — down from 4.5% a month ago — because markets now anticipate significant rate cuts to combat incipient economic weakness. The big question now is how aggressively the Fed will react. Go deeper.     2. 📊 Americans blame politics for Trump shooting   Data: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research; Chart: Axios Visuals A majority of Republicans, Democrats and independents all agree that political polarization played at least a moderate role in the assassination attempt against former President Trump, according to a new AP/NORC poll. Most Democrats said some blame for the shooting lies with the way Republicans talk about politics, while most Republicans said some blame lies with the way Democrats talk about politics. 👎 Americans also held the Secret Service responsible, and just 31% now say they're extremely confident the Secret Service can protect candidates from violence before the election.     A message from United for Democracy Biden's path forward: How to restore our democracy     The corrupt Supreme Court supermajority has stolen Americans' freedoms — and is attempting to crown former President Trump as a king. The only way to fix the Court is to ensure leaders in Congress and the White House reverse the damage, restore our freedoms and safeguard our democracy. Learn more.     3. Catch me up   Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   📱 The Justice Department sued TikTok, claiming it has illegally collected children's data for years. Go deeper ... Read the complaint 🗳️ Vice President Harris officially has enough delegates to be the Democratic nominee. Go deeper. 📞 President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop escalating tensions in the region and focus instead on a ceasefire deal. Go deeper.     4. 🛫 Summer's under-the-radar travel spot   A cafe in Paris, photographed on July 25. Photo: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images Looking for a last-minute summer vacation, maybe in Europe? Somewhere that won't be too crowded, or too expensive? Consider ... Paris. Yes, really. 🍽️ Despite the Olympics, the city's streets and cafes are unusually empty, the BBC reports. Hotels and restaurants are lowering their prices to try to coax in more customers, and airfare is significantly cheaper than usual. One restauranteur said July was his worst month in 25 years. 🥐 What's happening: Paris always empties out a bit in August, when many locals take their vacations, and even more people seem to have gotten out of town for the Olympics, per the BBC. Tight security and pre-Olympics price hikes may have deterred a lot of tourists.     A message from United for Democracy New plan calls to reform the corrupt Supreme Court     United for Democracy applauds President Biden and Vice President Harris for taking bold actions to build a Supreme Court that works for all Americans. Why it's important: Americans deserve justices who serve the interests of the people — not the wealthy few. See what's at stake.   Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Advertise with us. Axios, PO Box 101060, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: