News: How Harris is remaking the 2024 election

Saturday, August 17, 2024

How Harris is remaking the 2024 election

Aug 17, 2024

By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

Presented by

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

Kamala Harris walks onstage to cheering crowd at rally.

Kamala Harris' campaign is surging in states that were once previously considered a reach. | Julia Nikhinson/AP

DRIVING THE DAY

If you needed yet more evidence that KAMALA HARRIS has dramatically transformed the contours of the 2024 race, there’s a glut of it this morning.

A REMADE ELECTORAL MAP — The latest polls from NYT/Siena College, have Harris leading DONALD TRUMP among likely voters in Arizona and North Carolina and trailing narrowly in Nevada and Georgia.

The toplines:

Arizona: Harris 50%, Trump 45%
Georgia: Trump 50%, Harris 46%
Nevada: Trump 48%, Harris 47%
North Carolina: Harris 49%, Trump 47%

The trend: By comparison, in May, the NYT/Siena numbers had Trump leading JOE BIDEN by 6 points in Arizona (49% to 43%), 9 points in Georgia (50% to 41%) and 13 points in Nevada (51% to 38%).

The analysis: “With Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, the presidential race is returning to ‘normal,’” writes Times’ polling whiz Nate Cohn. “[A] dead heat in these four states is not great news for Mr. Trump, who may need to take all three of Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona to win in November. … Ms. Harris is still polling a bit beneath the 60-or-so percent of the vote that Democrats usually win among young and Hispanic voters in these states, even if it’s far better than where Mr. Biden stood in May. And even Ms. Harris’s edge among Black voters is still a tad lower than one would typically expect for a Democrat in these states.”

A REMADE CONGRESSIONAL MAP — The reality of a changed election is being reflected down the ticket.

“In recent days, dozens of Democrats in crucial House and Senate contests have finally gotten back post-Biden polling, and it shows the Vice President Kamala Harris effect is, indeed, real,” Ally Mutnick, Sarah Ferris and Anthony Adragna report. “Senate Democratic incumbents have been ahead in almost every single publicly released poll except in the red state of Montana. One Democratic group testing presidential numbers in competitive House districts rarely saw data that showed Biden above 50 percent; Harris is clearing that threshold and sometimes well above it.

“Democrats know there’s still no guarantee that it’s enough to win back the House, or the even tougher task of saving their Senate majority. But campaigns from California to Maine have already begun to subtly change strategy amid the tectonic shift in the election over the last month. …

“Republicans are openly sounding the alarm. While they talk up their own recruits and former President Donald Trump-driven grassroots energy, House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON this week warned in a private call with members this week that the ‘numbers are ominous,’ according to a person on the call. And Rep. RICHARD HUDSON (R-N.C.), the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said on that call that he’s seen significant polling shifts toward Democrats, who are ‘peaking really at the right time,’ while warning about a jarring financial gap with Democrats.”

A REMADE CONVENTION — When it opens on Monday, the Democratic National Convention will look a whole lot different than imagined just a few weeks ago.

Where once, planners had envisioned a Biden-dominated spectacle from something of a defensive posture, now they’re looking to mount an altogether more boisterous and confident Harris-centric affair.

The challenge, as Eugene and Shia Kapos write this morning, is how to refocus the convention on Harris — making her seem like the fresh new candidate without disregarding the last four years of the Biden administration in which she’s played a key role.

Not all of the Biden touches are gone. Every delegate will still have a bag of coffee beans as a nod to a cup of “Joe.” Monday will be a celebration of his legacy and his sacrifice in stepping aside to make way for Harris, and Biden will make the closing speech Monday night. (Harris told her team to make sure she’s able to watch Biden from inside the arena, two aides confirmed to POLITICO.)

On the record, convention planners are downplaying the obvious pivot, of course. One metaphor we heard over and over is that it’s the same plane, just with a different pilot.

But that understates the changes.

After the opening night, the lineup will be more Harris-focused and forward-looking, and we’re told that previously scheduled speakers have been reworking their remarks to reflect the changes at the top of the ticket. (Even the music will be different, with fewer Fleetwood Mac-era tunes and more BEYONCÉ.)

The whole vibe of the affair has shifted as the thrill of a new candidate has taken hold.

Requests have been flooding in from all over the country — including Hollywood — as would-be attendees scramble to find hotel rooms, stage pop-up parties at restaurants and snag coveted seats inside the United Center.

DONNA BRAZILE, the veteran Democratic political consultant, had invited five people to attend as guests. Then Harris moved to the top of the ticket, and she now has 40 guests. Brazile says she’s heard from “CEOs, Cabinet secretaries and regular people” who now want to take part in the convention, leading organizers to ensure there’s room in the United Center’s suites for the additional requests to attend.

Fundraising perked up, too. On Wednesday, the convention announced that it has raised $94 million, a record for a Democratic convention.

As one Democrat put it: “All of a sudden, all these people want to speak and all these people want to come.”

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

A message from Comcast:

Did you know that most of the data on your smartphone travels over WiFi, not cellular? Thanks to WiFi innovation by Comcast, our customers connect over a billion devices to our network each year. Unlicensed spectrum is key to a fast and secure WiFi experience at home and on the go. Comcast leads the way by developing cutting-edge WiFi gateways that maximize our multi-gig broadband network and spectrum made available by the FCC. Learn more.

A REMADE BRAIN TRUST — “The Confidants Guiding Harris for the Most Important Days of Her Life,” by NYT’s Katie Rogers, Erica Green and Reid Epstein: “This group looks nothing like President Biden’s tightly held brain trust, a group that was dominated by older white men and family members and grew smaller as he approached the decision to end his campaign. Ms. Harris, by contrast, relies on a multiracial, intergenerational web of about two dozen advisers, friends and relatives, firing up her phone every day to call in favors or ask for advice.”

THE RHETORICAL QUESTIONS — In 2016, MICHELLE OBAMA delivered an instant-classic line at the Democratic convention, proclaiming: “When they go low, we go high.” It was a direct rebuke of the rhetoric central to Trump’s campaign.

But it’s not 2016 anymore.

As Dems prepare for a week of campaign-defining hype, they’re “burying that ambition under a hill of insults, memes and snark,” Irie Sentner writes. One line of attack that is slotting into Dems’ repertoire is taking on Trump’s age after months of similar broadsides that eventually knocked Biden out of the contest. “But leaning into Trump’s age specifically could alienate older voters and come off as hypocritical after Harris and other Democrats defended Biden’s age,” Megan Messerly and Myah Ward write.

Trump, meanwhile — who has long relished insulting nicknames for his opponents — is struggling to settle on one this time around. “The former president, who rarely mentioned Harris until after Biden’s disastrous debate performance, tried out ‘Laffin’ Kamala’ before pivoting to ‘Lyin’ Kamala,’ then jettisoned that for ‘Crazy Kamala,’ which he interspersed with misspellings of her name. In the last few days, he has abandoned those monikers — even as he continues to use nicknames for other adversaries,” Jessica Piper writes.

A message from Comcast:

Unlicensed spectrum is key to a fast and secure WiFi experience at home and on the go. Comcast leads the way by developing cutting-edge WiFi gateways that maximize our multi-gig broadband network and spectrum made available by the FCC. Learn more.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden and Harris have nothing on their public schedules.

On the trail

Trump will hold a rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, this afternoon.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will be in La Vista, Nebraska, for a campaign event in the afternoon.

WELCOME TO THE CNN-POLITICO GRILL AT THE DNC! If you are in Chi-Town next week, join us at the CNN-POLITICO Grill just steps from the United Center for daily events and live programs. Featuring an all-star lineup of the most influential Democrats including Gov. JB Pritzker, Sen. Chuck Schumer, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, the Honorable Pete Buttigieg, Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Laphonza Butler, New York City Mayor Eric Adams and many more surprise guests. Don’t miss out on the buzziest conversations and newsworthy events hosted by POLITICO’s top reporters and editors. RSVP HERE.

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks on her policy platform.

Harris rolled out a long-awaited economic plan in North Carolina on Friday. | Grant Baldwin/Getty Images

1. ON THE AGENDA: Harris rolled out her economic policy plan during a campaign stop in North Carolina yesterday, where she had a clear message: This ain’t “Bidenomics,” Myah Ward, Adam Cancryn and Meridith McGraw write from Raleigh.

“The nature of Harris’ policy rollout underscored the key challenge for her truncated campaign: distancing herself from a Biden presidency dented by memories of soaring inflation and voters’ perception that conditions are getting worse, while retaining and building on the Biden policies that have largely succeeded in revitalizing the post-pandemic economy and delivering a slew of long-term benefits for the working class.”

What Harris said: “Now is the time to chart a new way forward,” Harris said to a crowd in the closely divided state, as people chanted the words back. “To build an America where everyone’s work is rewarded and talents are valued, where we work with labor and business to strengthen the American economy, and where everyone has the opportunity not to just get by, but to get ahead.”

Notable reaction: WaPo’s editorial board pans Harris’ plan with a biting review: “The times demand serious economic ideas. Harris supplies gimmicks.”

2. MAHALO FOR YOUR KOKUA: Trump is summoning an unexpected ghost from the 2020 campaign to help him prepare for debates against Harris, enlisting former Democratic Rep. TULSI GABBARD, who left the party, to “sharpen his attacks” in debate prep, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan report. Gabbard had a memorable debate performance in 2019, when she skewered Harris — though her attacks notably came from the left at the time.

“Gabbard said during that debate that Ms. Harris, when she was a district attorney in San Francisco, ‘put over 1,500 people in jail for marijuana violations and then laughed about it when she was asked if she ever smoked marijuana.’ She also accused Ms. Harris of having obstructed evidence that could have let an innocent man leave death row, doing so only when a court ‘forced her to.’”

3. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Biden yesterday signaled optimism on the prospects of a cease-fire deal coming together in the Israel-Hamas war, saying it was “closer than we have ever been.” It’s become a familiar position for the U.S., where officials have “often tried to minimize differences between Israel and Hamas, only to see talks collapse when the time comes to finalize an agreement,” WSJ’s Alan Cullison and Alexander Ward write. Biden’s stated position was underscored by another U.S. official, said talks are nearing an “endgame” and that they had seen “the most constructive 48 hours that we’ve had in this process in many months.”

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is traveling to the region this weekend, where he will meet with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials. But Hamas officials, who skipped talks this week, told various news outlets “that the framework presented in Doha contains new conditions they cannot agree to and argued it does not align with past versions they accepted,” Eric Bazail-Eimil writes.

4. SCOTUS WATCH: “Supreme Court declines to lift blocks on Biden administration’s education anti-discrimination rule,” by Josh Gerstein and Bianca Quilantan: “Splitting 5-4 along an unusual divide, the high court said the Biden administration had ‘not provided this Court a sufficient basis to disturb the lower courts’’ findings that the challenged gender identity and sex discrimination protections were ‘intertwined with and affect other provisions of the rule.’ The ruling is a major blow to the administration’s efforts to strengthen protections for transgender students and leaves in place the complicated patchwork of Title IX policies across the country as the school year begins.” Read the ruling

5. WEST GOES SOUTH: “Her name was on a filing agreeing to be a Cornel West elector. Her question: What’s an elector?” by AP’s Brian Slodysko and Jonathan Cooper in Phoenix: “‘I was shocked and surprised by it all. I didn’t even know what an elector was,’ [DENISHA] MITCHELL told The Associated Press on Friday. ‘The crazy thing is it was all forged. None of it was my handwriting. It was definitely not my signature. My email was wrong, my address was wrong.’ Mitchell’s case is the latest example of dubious tactics used in an effort to qualify West, a left-wing academic, for the ballot in states across the U.S. It’s also among the more egregious. It’s an effort that West himself apparently knows nothing about. His campaign did not immediately respond for comment Friday evening.”

6. IN THE BAG: “He found a Project 2025 duffel bag. Then police showed up at his house,” by WaPo’s Will Sommer: “Author MALCOLM HARRIS opened the door of his Capitol Hill home on Tuesday morning to find a D.C. police officer on his stoop. The officer had come to find out what Harris knew about a missing ‘Project 2025’ duffel bag from the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank — and the documents that had been inside. But Harris wasn’t interested in chatting.

“‘I don’t talk to the police, so we didn’t have a very long conversation,’ Harris told The Washington Post. For the Heritage Foundation, it’s hard to imagine a worse person to come across a bag full of their internal files than Harris. A Marxist journalist with a sense of humor and three books critiquing capitalism to his name, including the 2023 national bestseller ‘Palo Alto,’ Harris has dedicated his life to the opposite of Heritage’s conservative politics.”

7. TRUMP 2.0: Though he never took the drastic step of deploying U.S. military officers on American soil to carry out law enforcement during his first term, Trump has “made clear that he intends to use the military for a range of domestic law enforcement purposes, including patrolling the border, suppressing protests that he deems to have turned into riots and even fighting crime in big cities run by Democrats,” NYT’s Charlie Savage, Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman report.

“During his time out of power, allies of Mr. Trump have worked on policy papers to provide legal justifications for the former president’s intent to use the military to enforce the law domestically — particularly on immigration. In public, they have talked about this in the context of border states and undocumented immigrants. But an internal email from a group closely aligned with Mr. Trump, obtained by The Times, shows that, privately, the group was also exploring using troops to ‘stop riots’ by protesters.”

8. TEAM TALK: Harris has accepted an invitation to meet with the influential Teamsters, her campaign said yesterday, “as both the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns jockey for critical working-class votes that could play an outsize role in key battleground states,” WaPo’s Lauren Kaori Gurley writes. In addition, the powerful union will also have some sort of presence on stage at the DNC in Chicago after President SEAN O’BRIEN delivered remarks at the Republican convention in Milwaukee, though O’Brien himself will not speak.

9. WAR IN UKRAINE: “Ukraine’s offensive derails secret efforts for partial cease-fire with Russia, officials say,” by WaPo’s Isabelle Khurshudyan, Siobhán O'Grady, John Hudson and Catherine Belton in Kyiv: “Ukraine and Russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides, diplomats and officials familiar with the discussions said, in what would have amounted to a partial cease-fire and offered a reprieve for both countries. But the indirect talks, with the Qataris serving as mediators and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials.”

A message from Comcast:

Unlicensed wireless spectrum is key to fast and secure WiFi. Learn more.

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 keepers

Political cartoon.

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

— “The Little Town Being Taken Over by Falun Gong,” by William Bredderman for N.Y. Mag: “From stores to Kevin Sorbo, the sect runs a quiet business empire, and it’s centered upstate.”

— “Armed and Underground: Inside the Turbulent, Secret World of an American Militia,” by ProPublica’s Joshua Kaplan: “Now with the presidential election less than 100 days away, AP3 members see the fate of their country turning on a turbulent, charged campaign.”

— “A pastor said his pro-Trump prophecies came from God. His brother called him a fake,” by WaPo’s Danielle Paquette: “Jeremiah Johnson became a sensation when he embraced politics. His brother Josiah, also a preacher, couldn’t shake his concerns.”

— “A Sports Agent Went Viral. He Isn’t Ready to Fade Away,” by Eve Peyser for NYT: “Sean Stellato rocketed to fame through a mix of outlandish clothes, an outsize personality and an embrace of the N.F.L.’s underdogs. He is sticking with what worked.”

— “No god in the machine: the pitfalls of AI worship,” by Navneet Alang for The Guardian: “The rise of artificial intelligence has sparked a panic about computers gaining power over humankind. But the real threat comes from falling for the hype.”

— “Gaza Reduced to 42 Million Tonnes of Rubble. What Will It Take to Rebuild?” by Bloomberg’s Fadwa Hodali, Fares Akram, Jason Kao, Jennah Haque and Jeremy C. F. Lin: “As US-backed ceasefire talks restart in Doha, calls to reconstruct the Strip are becoming louder.”

— “A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage,” by WSJ’s Bojan Pancevski: “Private businessmen funded the shoestring operation, which was overseen by a top general; President Zelensky approved the plan, then tried unsuccessfully to call it off.”

— “How to Start a Professional Sports Team, Win Games, and Save the Town,” by The Ringer’s Dan Moore: “After the A’s announced they were leaving Oakland, a pair of lifelong fans set out to do something audacious: start a beloved pro baseball team of their own. Remarkably, they pulled it off. Now the Oakland Ballers need to survive.”

DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE.

PLAYBOOKERS

JD Vance is citing Martin Scorsese on the campaign trail.

George Santos reportedly has a plea deal in the works.

John Lewis has a statue in Georgia now.

Jared Kushner’s latest project is a luxury resort in Albania that is drawing concerns from environmentalists.

Peter Alexander is celebrating 20 years at NBC.

IN MEMORIAM — “John Lansing, the steady CEO who led NPR through the pandemic's crises, dies at 67,” by NPR’s David Folkenflik: “Former NPR chief executive John Lansing died Wednesday at his lakeside home in Wisconsin, just six months after relinquishing his role at the network and just two weeks after turning 67 years old. His cause of death was not immediately disclosed. … At NPR, Lansing tangled with titans, kept the network’s shows on the air during a global pandemic, navigated intense social headwinds, oversaw an ambitious expansion of digital ambitions and steered NPR through what he defined as an ‘existential’ financial crisis.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Zach Leighton is now senior adviser and traveling aide to Tim Walz on the campaign trail. He most recently was senior adviser to the U.S. ambassador to Germany and is a Biden White House alum.

TRANSITION — Giulia McPherson is now executive director of the Global Campaign for Education-US. She previously was VP of advocacy and operations at Jesuit Refugee Service/USA.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Thao Nguyen Kelly, principal for trust and safety at Google, and Brendan Kelly, who most recently was director for China economics at the National Security Council, on July 28 welcomed Esme Nguyen Kelly, who joins big sister Marielle. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Dave McCormick … Jon Lovett of Crooked Media … Louisa Terrell … former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), now of the American Action Network and Hogan Lovells … former Rep. David Price (D-N.C.) … ABC’s Brittany Shepherd … Ron Bonjean of Rokk Solutions … Sonali Dohale … The Guardian’s Ella Creamer … Jamie Smith … Jamie Gillespie … Daniel Penchina … Sabrina Schaeffer of the R Street Institute … Mike Buczkiewicz of “Morning Joe” … Caroline Boothe Olsen … Philip de Vellis of Beacon Media … Elise Foley … Ben Brody … Fox News’ Will Ricciardella … American Trucking Associations’ Jessica Gail … Nick Hawatmeh … Andrea Christianson … Diane Shust … Dave Toomey of the Leadership Conference … David Kusnet … Dynamic SRG’s Darren Rigger … Rebecca Alcorn of Sen. Mike Crapo’s (R-Idaho) office … Savannah Holsten … Chad Frey … Berkeley Mashburn

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

FOX “Fox News Sunday,” live from Chicago: Sen JD Vance (R-Ohio) … Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). Panel: Brit Hume, Karl Rove, Jessica Tarlov and Juan Williams. Sunday special: Behind the scenes at the convention.

CNN “State of the Union,” live from Chicago: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries … Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker … New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Panel: David Urban, David Axelrod, Kristen Soltis Anderson and Ashley Allison.

ABC “This Week,” live from Chicago: Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) … Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. Panel: Donna Brazile and Reince Priebus. Panel: Jonathan Karl, Rachel Scott and Chris Christie.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer … Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer … Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). Panel: Mary Ann Ahern, Matt Gorman, Kelly O’Donnell and Symone Sanders-Townsend.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear … Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) … Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Austan Goolsbee … Anne Milgram … Anthony Salvanto.

NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: RNC Chair Michael Whatley … Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) … Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson. Panel: George Will, Julia Manchester, Daniella Diaz and David Swerdlick.

MSNBC “The Weekend”: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul … Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) … DNC Chair Jaime Harrison … Quentin Fulks.

Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

A message from Comcast:

How many WiFi devices are connected in your home?

With the explosion of connected devices, the average home using our Xfinity WiFi has 20+ connected devices. Some devices stream 4K video. Some need ultra-low latency for gaming. And some just need to send a reminder that the refrigerator door is open.

With over a billion devices connected to our network, we know how important WiFi is to our digital lives. Comcast continues to innovate to maximize our superior broadband network and the unlicensed spectrum that is critical to fast and seamless WiFi at home and on the go.

Comcast is introducing its newest gateway, the XB10, the first to incorporate the latest generation of our network with WiFi 7 and AI technologies. The XB10 will be capable of delivering multi-gig download and upload speeds over WiFi and simultaneously power 300 connected devices in the home.

Learn more.