| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | WHAT TO WATCH TONIGHT — “The final piece of the Senate puzzle, another ‘Squad’ primary and more races to watch on Tuesday,” by Madison Fernandez: “Primaries are taking place in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin.”
|  Kamala Harris' surge of support is translating even in states like Florida. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | OUTLIER OR TREND? — Democrats’ dream of putting Florida in play could finally be coming true — if you believe the latest polling out of the Sunshine State. DONALD TRUMP leads KAMALA HARRIS by 5 percentage points in the USA TODAY/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll — a figure that falls within the 4.4% margin of error and is “closer than other recent polls and much less than Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ 19-point blowout in 2022,” USA Today’s Zac Anderson writes. The details: “Trump received the support of 47% of those in the USA TODAY/Suffolk/WSVN-TV Florida survey, compared with 42% for Harris and 5% for independent candidate ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., with 5% undecided or refusing to disclose their choice.” See the full poll The result comes as Harris has enjoyed a surge of enthusiasm — a fact that the poll even reflects: Harris’ Florida supporters are on par with Trump’s in enthusiasm, “with 89% of each group saying they are very or somewhat excited to vote for their candidate.” Reality check: While there is something for Harris’ campaign to cling to here, there is still a significant amount of work ahead to actually make the race competitive. (Trump lost Florida independents to Biden by 11 points in 2020, and the former president is only trailing Harris by 7 points in today’s results.) (We’re also wondering if the poll surveyed the Senate race between GOP Sen. RICK SCOTT and Democrat DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL and those results are yet forthcoming … ) LIKE FATHER, LIKE DAUGHTER? — New reporting on Kamala Harris’ father, DONALD, and his extensive work to set the economy straight in Jamaica may offer a window into how the Democratic presidential nominee’s past is shaping her future, WaPo’s Jeff Stein writes. “Since Kamala Harris’s rise to national prominence, her father has been labeled a left-wing economist who often focused on abstract debates primarily of interest to fellow academics. The 85-year-old former Stanford University professor did spend much of his career immersed in arcane disputes over topics whose practical implications can be hard to discern immediately. … But his role in trying to solve the practical economic problems of Jamaica — the country of his birth and youth — reveals a less-examined side of his career. “And some former colleagues say that work provides insight into the economist’s potential influence on his daughter’s worldview. They hear echoes of Donald Harris in elements of the vice president’s speeches — from her commitment to minority-owned businesses to her support for the Biden administration’s industrial policy initiatives.” HOW THE OTHER HALF GIVES — Trump’s critical courtship of the oil industry has run almost singularly through HAROLD HAMM. “Hamm, a sharecropper’s son who rose to become one of the world’s richest men, would seem to be an unlikely power broker. He doesn’t travel with an entourage and doesn’t keep a high profile. Yet he has emerged as a central figure in cajoling the oil industry to finance Trump’s reelection bid, and in communicating to the ex-president what the oil industry wants to improve its fortunes in a second Trump term,” WaPo’s Josh Dawsey and Maxine Joselow report. “His message appears to be resonating with some of the country’s wealthiest oil magnates, who are banking on Trump’s promises to reverse dozens of Biden’s environmental rules and policies. The money has been flowing in. The oil and gas industry has contributed more than $20.3 million to the Trump campaign, pro-Trump super PACs and the Republican National Committee in the 2024 cycle, according to data from OpenSecrets. Trump is expected to do more oil and gas events later this year, aides say.” Related read: While many execs in the oil industry have chosen their side, others in the C-suite class are more hesitant, WSJ’s Miriam Gottfried writes. “Making some uneasy is the fact that Trump — whose 2017 tax cuts are set to expire after 2025 — mentioned taxes only briefly at last month’s Republican National Convention in what appeared to be unscripted remarks. The problem for these CEOs is that Harris doesn’t necessarily present a better alternative. Few expect her to embrace Wall Street or business, despite her deep ties to some heavy-hitters in the finance world.” AFTERNOON READ — While much has been made of the similarities between 1968 and 2024 for the Democratic Party, there is one key difference, Ross Barkan writes for NYT: “The new left is largely leaderless. … [I]t has no one of any great fame or notoriety speaking directly for it, or to it. And for that alone, this is a singular moment in American history.” Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Comcast: Did you know that most of the data on your smartphone travels over WiFi, not cellular? Thanks to WiFi innovation by Comcast, our customers connect over a billion devices to our network each year. Unlicensed spectrum is key to a fast and secure WiFi experience at home and on the go. Comcast leads the way by developing cutting-edge WiFi gateways that maximize our multi-gig broadband network and spectrum made available by the FCC. Learn more. | | | | | 6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  New reporting illuminates how Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has approached the cease-fire negotiations. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | 1. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Despite Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s denials that he’s blocked cease-fire negotiations, in private he has “added new conditions to Israel’s demands, additions that his own negotiators fear have created extra obstacles to a deal,” NYT’s Ronen BergmanPatrick Kingsley and Adam Rasgon report. “According to unpublished documents reviewed by The New York Times that detail Israel’s negotiating positions, Israel relayed a list of new stipulations in late July to American, Egyptian and Qatari mediators that added less flexible conditions to a set of principles it had made in late May.” “Doubts have also been raised about Hamas’s willingness to compromise on key issues, and the group also requested its own extensive revisions throughout the process, while ceding some smaller points in July. But the documents reviewed by The Times make clear that the behind-the-scenes maneuvering by the Netanyahu government has been extensive — and suggest that agreement may be elusive at a new round of negotiations set to begin on Thursday.” Related read: “U.S. Efforts to Calm Mideast Fighting Face Critical Week,” by WSJ’s Anat Peled in Tel Aviv 2. WALZ TO WALZ: The comb-through of TIM WALZ’s record as Minnesota governor continues, with WSJ’s Michelle Hackman digging into his recent moves on immigration. During his tenure, Walz “signed into law initiatives allowing immigrants in the country illegally to apply for driver’s licenses, qualify for free tuition at state universities and enroll in the state’s free healthcare program for low-income residents.” The actions “put him squarely in the mainstream of his party,” even as they offer a potential line of attack from Republicans. Related reads: “Walz’s handling of George Floyd protests draws fresh scrutiny,” by WaPo’s Cleve Wootson Jr., Abbie Cheeseman and Robert Samuels in Minneapolis … “Tim Walz Isn’t Very Rich. Americans Disagree on Whether That’s a Good Thing,” by WSJ’s Joe Pinsker and Veronica Dagher 3. FOR YOUR RADAR: “U.S. Lifts Restrictions on Sale of Bombs to Saudi Arabia,” by WSJ’s Nancy Youssef and Michael Gordon: “The shipments underscore White House attempts to woo Riyadh, hoping closer ties with the oil-rich kingdom will pay dividends in the administration’s final months. The Biden administration has been drafting a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, as well discussing plans to provide assistance so the kingdom can acquire civil nuclear power.”
| | | | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | | 4. JUST VANCE: CNN is up with an in-depth look at the rise and fall of AppHarvest, a Kentucky startup that GOP VP nominee JD VANCE invested in, served on the board of and touted during his stint as a venture capitalist. And though there are no documents or specific allegations against Vance himself, his involvement and bet on the company “cuts against his image as a champion for the working class,” CNN’s Allison Gordon, Daniel Medina, Curt Devine and Kyung Lah write. “While Vance stepped down from AppHarvest’s board and launched his political career in 2021, he remained an investor and supporter of the company. By the time he was sworn in to office last year, the company he’d hailed as a great opportunity was mired in lawsuits filed by shareholders angry over its plummeting stock price and allegations of fraud. Several former employees told CNN they thought Vance and other board members should have recognized and responded to warning signs that company officials were misleading the public and their own investors.” 5. THE SANTOS CLAUSE: Since he got kicked out of Congress, GEORGE SANTOS has not exactly slipped into anonymity. In fact, he’s continued to put himself front and center in myriad ways. “Now, he is arguing that all that publicity could taint his criminal trial next month,” NYT’s Nicholas Fandos writes. “In a flurry of pretrial filings, Mr. Santos’s lawyers have argued that the federal judge overseeing the case must take extra steps to screen potential jurors with a lengthy written questionnaire, and then obscure their identities from the public, if the proceeding is to be fair.” Despite the various protestations from Santos and his team, “all indications are that Mr. Santos is moving swiftly toward trial. The court has summoned 850 potential jurors. Prosecutors said they had lined up “dozens of witnesses” to testify. And after rejecting an earlier attempt by Mr. Santos to narrow the case, Judge JOANNA SEYBERT has kept it on a schedule that could result in a verdict shortly before Election Day.” 6. KNOWING MINYON MOORE: “She helped create a more inclusive Democratic Party. Now she’s leading the convention,” by The 19th’s Candice Norwood: “Moore’s background, which includes roles both in and out of the White House, has prepared her to oversee the massive event. She’s a South Side Chicago native who wanted to ensure that local residents and businesses felt included in the convention process. Known as a ‘diplomat’ among her friends, Moore has maintained relationships with both advocates and people in all levels of government who can shape the convention’s programming.”
| | | | DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | LeBron James is handing over his voting organization to WNBA star Nneka Ogwumike to focus on women’s issues and reproductive rights this year. Robert Kraft is donating to Dave McCormick’s Senate campaign. OUT AND ABOUT — The Washington AI Network and John Hopkins University Bloomberg Center hosted a conversation with Elizabeth Kelly, director of the U.S. AI Safety Institute, last night, with Cybele Bjorklund and Tammy Haddad interviewing her. SPOTTED: Irish Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason, Steve Benjamin, Conrad Stosz, Nicoletta Giordani, retired Rear Adm. Mike Hewitt, Ryan Costello, Dave Butler, Mitchell Rivard, Virginia Boney, Sumi Somaskanda, Julian Ramirez, Sally O’Brien, Ty Trippet, James Roscoe, Joe Wang, Jonny Tan, Senay Bulbul, Jackie Rooney, Helen and Joe Milby, Dan Meyers, John Rizzo, Tina Anthony, Kathy Baird, Erica Loewe, Sydney Harvey, Nkechi Nneji, Ted Johnson, Tizzy Brown, Tony P, Chris Russo and Omar Tewfik. TRANSITIONS — Alicia Moulton has been named advanced comms liaison at the Idaho National Laboratory. She most recently was deputy director of comms for the EFI Foundation. … Natalie Bidner is joining the United States Council for International Business as director of international agriculture policy. She previously was a program manager at the World Food Prize Foundation. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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