| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | Presented by ExxonMobil | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | |  President Joe Biden’s circle is smaller and more cloistered than it has ever been. | Mario Tama/Getty Images | Here’s where the conversation is this morning among top Democrats in the White House, JOE BIDEN campaign and Congress: Dem freakout of the day: A new poll of Michigan shows DONALD TRUMP leading Biden, 49 percent to 42 percent. The EPIC-MRA survey is for the Detroit Free Press, which reports that “Trump led in every region of the state, including in metro Detroit,” where Biden beat Trump 56 percent-40 percent in 2020. Democrats have been sending this poll to us all morning. “Brutal,” said one former senior Biden official. The latest to go public: Sen. JOE MANCHIN (I-W.Va.) did a round of Sunday shows this morning to announce he believes Biden should not run for reelection. “I come with a heavy heart to think the time has come for him to pass the torch to a new generation,” he told Martha Raddatz on ABC’s “This Week.” When asked what he would like to see happen if Biden stepped down as the nominee, Manchin, who registered as an independent earlier this year, said “the Democratic Party needs an open process.” When Raddatz pointed out that “KAMALA HARRIS is the first woman, the first Black American to be elected as vice president, Manchin said, “This is not about race and gender,” and that a “healthy competition” will help Democrats figure out whether Harris is the best person to beat Trump. The open process wars: Many Democrats, including many Biden administration officials, remain convinced that it is inevitable that Biden will step down and have moved on to the first-, second- and third-order questions about what happens next. That debate over whether there should be an “open process” is being seen as a proxy war between pro- and anti-Harris factions, though the open process crowd is framing it as beneficial to the vice president. “There has to be a process,” a senior administration official told Playbook, arguing that Harris and other potential Democratic nominees should compete to replace Biden. “I don’t think that Kamala can just be anointed. And it’s not in her interest for her to be anointed.” Part of the argument from these Democrats is that short-circuiting a democratic process would feed conspiracy theories that Harris engineered Biden’s ouster and/or that she didn’t earn the nomination. But others disagree. Some vehemently. “You know this is fucking insane, don’t you?” Democratic strategist MARIA CARDONA told us, referring to the prospect of a mini-primary in the run-up to an open convention in Chicago. “This will NEVER happen. And if the white Democratic elite are seen as trying to push aside the first African-American/South Asian woman, daughter of immigrants, on a presidential ticket, who is imminently qualified and extraordinarily talented, a civil war, such as we have never seen will ensue, and we might as well inaugurate Donald Trump tomorrow night.” After the convention: Others are starting to think through the enormous complexity of handing over the campaign to Harris. Some hard questions we’re hearing being asked:
- What happens to JEN O’MALLEY DILLON, MIKE DONILON and the existing Biden campaign leadership?
- How does Harris (or another Democrat) unite the party, including a significant faction of Biden Democrats who feel he’s been robbed?
- What happens to DNC Chair JAIME HARRISON, the Biden campaign’s existing co-chairs, and all the other Biden loyalists now in power?
- Does Harris do better in the old Dem “blue wall” states of the upper Midwest or the Sun Belt swing states, and how would current campaign resources be reallocated to reflect that?
- Does Harris (or another Democrat) have time to make bio ads and (re)introduce herself in the way that a typical presidential candidate would have done a year ago?
- Would the (much-questioned) Donilon-led message strategy centered on Trump’s threat to democracy still make sense?
Harris would be asked to do something unprecedented and historically difficult: take over a presidential campaign, unite a party and defeat a well-funded and united opposition in just a few months. The scale of the challenge is daunting, and Democrats fear that every day that goes by without a decision, the chance of Harris succeeding diminishes. As one Democratic operative put it, “hearing more anger from Dems that [the Biden] team is imperiling the party and the country with each passing day. Dems moving from sadness to anger.”
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil: At ExxonMobil, we’ve captured more CO2 than any other company, so we have the expertise to help some of the most carbon-intensive sectors. With more than 30 years' experience, we’re a global leader in carbon capture and storage. Now, we’re advancing projects around the world, including in Louisiana and Texas, to help us and our customers reduce emissions. Let’s deliver. | | | The psychodrama: Multiple White House and administration sources tell us that Biden’s circle is smaller and more cloistered than it has ever been. There is concern among Biden aides about the president relying more on his son HUNTER for advice and a lot of armchair psychoanalysis among aides trying to understand the family dynamic. “He and his son are playing this victimhood thing — ‘I was mistreated under [BARACK] OBAMA,’” said one senior administration official. “It’s insane. He wasn’t mistreated. But he conjures this up in his head and once it’s there, it’s very hard to get out.” “For his whole life, he’s been trying to protect Hunter, encourage Hunter to step up, encourage Hunter to be the person he wants him to be. Finally, Hunter is doing exactly that. He’s stepping up. And who is he protecting? It’s not the father protecting the son. It’s the son protecting the father. And there’s a bonding moment that none of us totally understand. All of a sudden, you have something that the father has wanted his whole life with his son, and he’s finally getting it now in a weird way.” It’s not just the oft-cited chip on Biden’s shoulder about how Obama and others pushed him aside in 2016 in favor of HILLARY CLINTON. “There’s a dynamic here,” the official said, “and a psychology that we don’t fully get besides, ‘I got screwed in 2016 and I’m not getting screwed a second time.’ He’s always played this victim role, and sometimes it’s true. It’s just not true in this instance.” Inside the bunker: White House officials and Democrats in Congress also detect a subtle difference among three of Biden’s longtime advisers, ANITA DUNN, RON KLAIN and Donilon, with Dunn being seen as perhaps more open to Biden not running — but not pressing the issue — and Klain and Donilon being totally committed to Biden staying in the race. “Klain and Donilon are 100 percent he should run,” said a House Democrat close to the White House. “Anita believes he will run. Not sure what her personal belief is on whether he should. Most think the public pressure is getting Biden to dig in more.” (Indeed, Bloomberg, among others, reports that Biden’s resolve has hardened.) “He’s not stepping down,” Rep. VERONICA ESCOBAR (D-Texas), a Biden campaign co-chair, told us this morning. Donilon has told people this will be his last campaign, so there are few professional consequences for him if he sticks with Biden and is held responsible for ushering in a Trump victory. For younger senior staffers with a future in Democratic politics, there is more of a sense of fear of what happens to them if they stay the course, and many of these officials see the wisdom of Biden not running — both for the country and for their own future in Democratic politics. Some former Biden officials are starting to go public. TOPHER SPIRO, who recently left a senior position at OMB, has been posting support for Biden stepping down. More: SARAH LONGWELL’s focus groups say Biden’s gotta go … POLITICO: Federal employees are panicking … WaPo: The Biden family is grappling with the pressure … POLITICO: Harris’ tough balancing act … NYT: TAMMY BALDWIN and other vulnerable Dems are struggling in Biden’s shadow … POLITICO: The ongoing doubts about Harris … NYT: Trump campaign preparing Harris attack plan … WaPo: Dem donors are vetting possible Harris running mates Good Sunday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. ONE TO WATCH — “Trump wins round in libel suit against Pulitzer Prize Board over Russia stories,” by Josh Gerstein: “In a 14-page ruling issued Saturday, Senior Judge ROBERT PEGG turned down arguments from the prominent journalism awards panel that their decision to bestow the national reporting prize on the staffs of the [NYT and WaPo] in 2018 amounted to a statement of ‘pure opinion’ rather than fact. … The rulings mean Trump’s suit will likely continue into a discovery phase, where the former president’s lawyers will be able to question Pulitzer board members about discussions related to the awards to the Times and Post.” SUNDAY BEST … — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON on legal challenges to a Biden replacement, on ABC’s “This Week”: “Every state has its own system. And in some of these, it’s not possible to simply just switch out a candidate … It would be wrong and I think unlawful in accordance to some of the states’ rules for a handful of people to go in the back room and switch it out because they don’t like the candidate any longer.” More from David Cohen — Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) on replacing Biden, on “This Week”: “Maybe we should have … had an open primary, and we shouldn’t sort of discourage people running against incumbents. And that’s a conversation the Democratic Party should have. But you can’t, two weeks before the vote, say we’re not going to honor that process.” — Rep. JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) on subpoenaing Secret Service Director KIMBERLY CHEATLE, on “Fox News Sunday”: “Now she has to come. But we shouldn’t have to issue a subpoena. Director Cheatle should want to be transparent with the American people. This is one of the darkest days in the history of America. This was a huge debacle. And yet the American people one week later have no answers to the many questions that we have.” — ERIC TRUMP on replacing Biden, on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures”: “He always talks about Donald Trump being a threat to democracy, yet his entire party is trying to hijack a nomination that he rightfully won and subvert the will of, effectively, the American people who voted for him … And, believe me, there’s just going to be a lot of infighting between all the other people who’d want to take that seat.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil: The world needs ways to reduce carbon emissions. At ExxonMobil, we’re working on solutions in our own operations – like carbon capture and clean energy from hydrogen – that could also help in other industries like manufacturing, commercial transportation and power generation, too. Helping deliver heavy industry with low emissions. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden and Harris have nothing on their public schedules.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | | 
Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Donald Trump held a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, yesterday. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. SO MUCH FOR THAT: Just a few days after half-attempting a shift to unity messaging at the Republican National Convention, Trump returned to his typical rhetoric on the campaign trail yesterday in Grand Rapids, Michigan, the Detroit Free Press’ Dave Boucher and Todd Spangler report. He called the U.S. a “failing nation,” said Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER was “terrible,” dismissed concerns about him threatening democracy and lied about his auto jobs record, election fraud and immigration increasing violent crime. But Trump also worked to portray himself as “not extreme at all” and someone with “great common sense.” Trump also played up Democrats’ woes, delighting in the uncertainty about who his opponent will be in November, Natalie Allison and Alex Isenstadt report. Referencing Democrats’ suggestions that democracy is on the ballot in November, Trump added: “I took a bullet for democracy.” And he said Chinese President XI JINPING wrote him a “beautiful note” after he survived the assassination attempt, per Reuters. Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) also spoke to the crowd. Related read from the convention: “GOP called for unity as it continued to feature far-right figures, ideas,” by WaPo’s Hannah Allam, Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Patrick Marley 2. FROM THE GROUND UP: “Inside the Trump Campaign’s Hidden Ground Game,” by WSJ’s Vivian Salama in Germantown, Wisconsin: “The Trump campaign’s effective takeover of the Republican National Committee has come with a new approach to on-the-ground canvassing efforts: doing more with less. The party says its get-out-the-vote effort, dubbed ‘Trump Force 47,’ is driven by a dedicated army of volunteers. … [C]ampaign strategists have been revamping what they viewed as an inefficient, bloated and antiquated Republican ground-game model. … But the party’s field organizing is so small that some local Republican officials say they are anxious it won’t be enough.” 3. CASH DASH: Republicans are making major strides to catch up to Democrats in fundraising. The RNC said last night that it raked in $66 million last month and almost doubled its cash-on-hand number to $102 million by the end of June, blasting past the DNC’s war chest, per WaPo’s Maeve Reston and Clara Ence Morse. The DNC said it pulled in $39 million and had $78 million on hand. Though the Biden campaign outraised the Trump campaign in June, $127 million to $112 million, the Trump campaign ended with more in its pocket — $285 million to $240 million. Notably, all these numbers mostly cover a pre-debate period. The reports also showed that the Biden campaign was spending way more than the Trump campaign, almost a 6-to-1 margin last month. And that should be especially troubling for Democrats because they ended with just about nothing to show for it, still trailing Trump in the polls even before the debate, Jessica Piper reports. Biden’s ads simply haven’t moved the needle. 4. PRIMARY COLORS: “GOP businessman Sandy Pensler drops out of U.S. Senate race, endorses Mike Rogers,” by The Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke, Beth LeBlanc and Craig Mauger: “The development puts [MIKE] ROGERS one step closer to securing the GOP nomination in what's expected to be a highly competitive Senate race this fall. [SANDY] PENSLER, 67, of Grosse Pointe Park announced his decision to back Rogers at Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s rally in Grand Rapids Saturday evening.”
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil:   | | | 5. ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT: Despite the Secret Service’s initial statements, WaPo’s Josh Dawsey and Carol Leonnig revealed that the agency did repeatedly reject Trump team requests for more security over the past two years. That heightened tensions between the Trump camp and the Secret Service, which sometimes cited resource shortfalls. But notably, the denials did not relate to the Pennsylvania rally where he was shot. Nonetheless, the news prompted Rep. BRENDAN BOYLE (D-Pa.) to become the first congressional Democrat to call for Cheatle to resign. Another issue: NYT’s Campbell Robertson, Kate Kelly, Jeanna Smialek and Hamed Aleaziz identify that the Secret Service largely expected local cops to cover the area outside its main secured zone in Butler — but then had most of them work inside that perimeter. For the most part, a “fog of confusion” and a patchwork of disagreements are making it harder to understand what went wrong, WSJ’s Sadie Gurman, James Fanelli and Ryan Barber write. Knowing THOMAS MATTHEW CROOKS: As investigators continue to try to understand the shooter, WSJ’s Joel Schectman, Kristina Peterson and Sadie Gurman capture his final year, when classmates knew him for being a strong engineering community college student, loving math and adoring TONY STARK — no signs of what would emerge. His politics seemed possibly center-right. But if the probe turns up no impetus other than a troubled young man focused more on committing violence than a specific target, Crooks would join a line of attackers for whom motives can prove frustratingly elusive, WaPo’s Hannah Allam and Devlin Barrett write. WaPo’s Perry Stein also notes that law enforcement was able to trace Crooks’ gun by relying on records that some Republicans want to restrict government from accessing. 6. WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: “Bibi Is Slow-Rolling a Cease-fire in Gaza,” by Michael Hirsh in POLITICO Magazine: “There are several reasons [Israeli PM BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU is slow-rolling the negotiations … But a key reason for Netanyahu’s latest delay tactic that has received less attention appears to be his calculation that the U.S. election is shifting rapidly in Trump’s favor. With the U.S. presidential election now a little more than three months away, Netanyahu may believe he can escape the pressure he’s getting from Biden to stop the war and that Trump will go easier on Israel and also be far tougher on Iran and its proxies.” 7. IMMIGRATION FILES: Since Biden implemented a massive asylum crackdown to close large parts of the U.S.-Mexico border, the illegal immigration picture has changed drastically and quickly, especially in Texas. The latest numbers for June were about one-third the levels of last December, and at the current rate, this month could see illegal crossings drop back to the same levels of the end of the Trump administration, NYT’s Miriam Jordan and David Goodman report. That’s due to both U.S. and Mexican policies/enforcement. And from Tucson, Arizona, AP’s Elliot Spagat digs into one notable policy change: Migrants now have to proactively volunteer that they fear being deported, which could help them stay, rather than being asked that question first by Border Patrol. That’s a shift from a policy that previously was in place since 1997, and advocates warn that vulnerable people are getting booted because they don’t know they need to say those magic words. 8. SUNDAY READ: “School turned him liberal. His mom loves Fox News. Will their bond survive?” by WaPo’s Hannah Natanson in Ithaca, New York: “Both MIKE [LINDGREN] and his mother saw his education as the culprit — in different ways. JENNIFER, a former patrol officer, came to believe the teachers and classmates at Mike’s private school influenced him to adopt viewpoints at odds with her own. ‘He was indoctrinated,’ she said. But Mike decided the ‘indoctrination’ he underwent actually took place at home, fueled by his family’s diet of Fox News, Trump speeches and ALEX JONES. What his boarding school did, Mike said, was ‘counter-indoctrination’: It showed him there was more than one way to see things.” 9. KNOWING STANLEY GOLDFARB: The kidney doctor and former Penn med school dean has emerged as a significant expert making the case for Republicans’ restrictions on gender transition-related medical care for children, Daniel Payne reports this morning. Goldfarb’s group, Do No Harm, has argued that the likes of hormone treatments and puberty blockers are damaging to minors. That sets him apart from mainstream groups like the American Medical Association — and has made him a favorite of GOP leaders who agree with him that progressive ideology has overtaken too many medical organizations. And though his kidney specialty is far from gender-affirming care, Goldfarb is expanding beyond just that issue, decrying diversity initiatives in medical education. “Goldfarb, a wiry, soft-spoken octogenarian with a penchant for recalling research papers, stands out as an academic among politicians,” Daniel writes, “even as he lobbies them, testifies before their committees and makes his case on Fox News.”
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Donald Trump health update: Ronny Jackson said his bullet wound is healing. Joe Biden health update: Kevin O’Connor said his Covid symptoms are improving. Alex Borstein narrates an ad for the Seneca Project, a new pro-democracy women’s rights group. IN MEMORIAM — “Walter Shapiro, 1947–2024,” by Joe Klein: “He was a grand, kindly soul — a political writer extraordinaire, and much more. … He was too much of a romantic to be much of a cynic; he loved the game, but dreamed of a better country — and spent his life searching for a better class of leaders.” OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a birthday party for Josh Dawsey: British Ambassador Karen Pierce and Charles Roxburgh, Sally Quinn, Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan, Katrina Chan, Tyler Pager, Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Annie Karni, John Hudson, Evan Hollander and Eli Yokley, James Adams, Teddy Schleifer, Katie Benner, Bill Hollander and Lisa Keener, Pat Curran, Jeff Solnet, Matt Mowers and Cassie Spodak, Michael Ahrens, Jackie Alemany, Jonathan Kott, Sudeep Reddy, Catherine Valentine and Zachary Cohen, Theo Meyer, Juliet Eilperin, Sean Dugan, Andrew Restuccia, Ryan Barber and Tarini Parti. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) … Reps. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.) … Fox News’ Peter Doocy … Mick Mulvaney … CNN’s Mark Preston … David Stacy … Google’s Ali-Jae Henke … SoftBank’s Christin Tinsworth Baker … Steve Lerch … Nancy LeaMond of AARP … Samantha Summers of Albertsons Companies … IBEX Partners’ Michael Sessums … Trita Parsi … Dave Noble … Edelman’s Athena Johnson … Katherine Schneider … Jahan Wilcox ... retired Gen. Dick Tubb … Government Publishing Office’s Hugh Halpern … Roshan Patel … RNC’s Brian Parnitzke … former Reps. Phil Roe (R-Tenn.), Jimmy Duncan (R-Tenn.), Ed Towns (D-N.Y.) (9-0), John Salazar (D-Colo.) and Bobby Bright (D-Ala.) … John Negroponte … former Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy … Garrett Ventry of GRV Strategies … Bob Shrum … Meta’s Ritika Robertson … Elizabeth Myers of the Congressional Research Service Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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