Monday, July 29, 2024

After the sugar high

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POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

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EYES ON CARACAS — “Venezuela's Maduro, opposition each claim presidential victory,” by Reuters’ Vivian Sequera, Deisy Buitrago and Mayela Armas: “The country's electoral authority said just after midnight on Monday that [President NICOLAS] MADURO had won a third term with 51% of the vote, despite multiple exit polls which pointed to an opposition win.”

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, speaking in Tokyo this morning: “We have serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people. … The international community is watching this very closely and will respond accordingly.”

Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to supporters during a campaign rally

The next three weeks before the Democratic National Convention dictate whether VP Kamala Harris can harness her recent momentum. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

A CRUCIAL THREE WEEKS — The “sugar high” is about to wear off.

Yes, VP KAMALA HARRIS has had a remarkable past week. Yes, she has managed to reset Democrats’ chances against GOP nominee DONALD TRUMP. Yes, her campaign is now $200 million and 170,000 new volunteers richer

But the campaign now shifts into a new phase, and it’s the next three weeks before the Democratic National Convention that will dictate whether Harris can harness the momentum, grow her appeal and potentially expand the electoral map in Democrats’ favor.

None of those things are guaranteed, as Harris herself is telling aides and allies, we’re told: “She is not blinded by the sugar,” said one insider who recently spoke with Harris. “She understands the gravity and excitement of the moment but also understands the work that needs to be done.”

Foremost on her mind is activating the new volunteers and getting them out knocking on doors. Harris and emerging campaign brain trust share the view that shifting the fundamentals of the race will be difficult with a calcified electorate and fragmented media environment.

But even some Republicans acknowledge she has been handed a major opportunity to reset the race over the coming weeks.

“There is no question Kamala has the momentum and she gets a summer lull period during the Olympics, a VPOTUS pick, then a convention before we are quickly at Labor Day and ballots starting to be mailed out shortly after,” as one Republican strategist texted us last night.

The fractured GOP response hasn’t helped, the person added: “The campaign seems to have realized that and will try to set the tone this week, but I am not so sure the entire MAGA Universe will sing from the song sheet immediately.”

Veteran GOP operative SCOTT JENNINGS told us focus will be essential for Republicans: “Bag the stupid crap and just focus on her record, statements and work under President JOE BIDEN. More than enough there,” he said. “With any luck she’ll spend the next two weeks disavowing her entire record, which of course will make her seem hollow to voters.”

We asked the Trump campaign’s KAROLINE LEAVITT about their plans going forward given the upheaval of the past week.

"Our strategy hasn't changed,” Leavitt said in a statement. “Kamala Harris is just as incompetent as Joe Biden and even more liberal. Not only does Kamala need to defend her support of Joe Biden’s failed agenda over the past four years, she also needs to answer for her own terrible weak-on-crime record in California. A vote for Kamala is a vote to continue inflation, open borders, high gas prices, and war around the world.”

We also reached out broadly to top Democratic strategists this weekend about what they’re looking for in the coming weeks from Harris:

— Focus on attacking, not responding: “Every Democrat I know is worried about how and when Trump will attack Vice President Harris,” veteran operative PAUL BEGALA told us. “They see the next phase of the campaign as a test of her ability to respond to Trump’s attacks.” But Harris needs to focus less on responding to those attacks and more on prosecuting Trump rhetorically, day in and day out, on the litany of issues available to her. The more the election becomes a referendum on Trump, he and others said, the more likely it is Harris can win.

— Don’t get stuck in the weeds: Former White House comms director JENNIFER PALMIERI told Playbook that Harris needs to develop pithy responses to key GOP attacks that allow her to pivot back to her own issue set. On the border, for instance, “I would not get wrapped around the axle about that — it's a loser,” she said. “Border crossings are down. And one of the reasons is her assignment was diplomacy, and she did a lot of work in other countries to try to stop the flow. And the numbers are down. Next.”

— Put the excitement to work: Nothing has changed more drastically for Democrats over the past week than the sudden infusion of grassroots energy into the campaign — from the coconut meme explosion to the record-breaking (and software-breaking) Zoom calls. Harris confidante DONNA BRAZILE compared the level of organic excitement to the 2008 primary and said the campaign needs to not only lean into it but give the newly activated crowd things to do. “We've been ready for this moment. We just didn't have a vehicle,” Brazile said. “And now [Harris] is our vehicle.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — To that point: A new memo from DNC Chair JAIME HARRISON is signaling how the party is “doing more than ever before to equip our grassroots supporters with the training and tools to build and sustain the groundswell of enthusiasm for electing Democrats this November.” They include an organizing app, a tool to create organic graphics, memes and trainings for canvassers and content creators. The memo also runs down all the big numbers from the past week, including the record-breaking $6.5 million the party raised online the day Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris. Read the full memo

Related reads: “100 days out, Dems are feeling something unusual: Optimism,” by Mia McCarthy and Lisa Kashinsky in Pittsfield, Massachusetts … “How Kamala Harris took control of the Democratic Party,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Tyler Pager … “Trump and Harris enter 99-day sprint to decide an election that has suddenly transformed,” by AP’s Steve Peoples and Michelle L. Price

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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LYNN SWEET GETS IT — “CNN-Politico Grill will be hot ticket at the Democratic convention in Chicago,” Chicago Sun-Times: “‘Every convention, it seems to be the place to see and be seen,’ said Ted Johnson, the political editor for Deadline.com.”

WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT — “Harris Camp Warns Supporters: Don’t Get Duped by ‘Scam PACs,’” by the Bulwark’s Sam Stein: “That fundraising push agitated some Democrats, who believe that these groups are being run by unscrupulous operatives rushing to grab grassroots funds meant for the presidential campaign. Even more remarkable is that one of the officers at these PACs also runs a firm helping the Harris campaign raise money, effectively working multiple sides of the same donor pool. …

“When reached for comment, RYAN MORGAN, who founded PACtion, declined to directly address whether there was a tension in assisting both a presidential campaign and the PACs that the presidential campaign is now accusing of scamming donors. Instead, he defended his work.

‘That’s what I do. I provide fundraising data to Democratic and allied organizations,’ he said. ‘We are absolutely integral to those groups in the same way we are integral to the Biden campaign.’”

ISRAEL LATEST — Per AP: “Israeli strikes killed two people and injured three others in southern Lebanon early Monday, Lebanon’s state-run news agency said. The report came as Israel mulls its response to a rocket attack from Lebanon over the weekend that killed 12 children and teenagers in a town in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights. Monday’s strikes did not appear to be Israel’s response to the deadly weekend attack but more routine fighting.”

THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Acting Secret Service Director RONALD L. ROWE JR. and Deputy FBI Director PAUL ABBATE testify before the Senate Homeland Security and Judiciary committees on the Trump assassination attempt. Harris holds a campaign event in Atlanta. Vance campaigns in Henderson and Reno, Nevada. … Wednesday: Fed meets on interest rates. Trump holds a campaign rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Vance campaigns in Glendale, Arizona. … Thursday: Senate Appropriations Committee marks up five fiscal 2025 spending bills.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up STACEY NEUMANN’s judicial nomination, and will vote at 5:30 p.m. on ADAM LANDY’s Tax Court nomination.

The House is out.

3 things to watch …

  1. The House is gone till Sept. 9, but the Senate is back to work this week. The main business is final passage, expected tomorrow afternoon, of an online safety bill aimed at kids, plus a smattering of confirmations. But pay attention to the work getting done in the Appropriations Committee, which is set to mark up its final five fiscal 2025 spending bills Thursday. With the House’s partisan approach sputtering, the bipartisan bills assembled by Sens. PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.) and SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) could (again) become the foundation for a final deal months down the road.
  2. One thing that won’t be getting done in the Senate this week is a markup of cryptocurrency legislation: Meredith Lee Hill and Eleanor Mueller scooped for Pros yesterday that Agriculture Committee Chair DEBBIE STABENOW (D-Mich.) scrapped plans for a Wednesday panel vote that could expand the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s role in policing crypto. A late push to get Sen. JOHN BOOZMAN (R-Ark.), the committee’s top Republican, on board did not bear fruit, and there are Democratic attendance concerns.
  3. Tomorrow’s closely watched GOP primary in Arizona’s 8th congressional district got a late shakeup from Trump’s surprise dual endorsement of BLAKE MASTERS, supplementing his prior endorsement of ABE HAMEDEH. We’ll note that the timing was curious, given Masters’ all-in backing of JD VANCE amid scrutiny of the would-be-VP’s widely panned “childless cat ladies” remark. (“Political leaders should have children. Certainly they should at least be married,” Masters wrote.) Watch to see if others in the race — particularly state House Speaker BEN TOMA — can squeak through.

At the White House

Biden will travel to Austin, Texas, where he’ll speak at the LBJ Presidential Library at 4:30 p.m. Eastern to mark the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act. He’ll also announce his push for three major reforms — term limits and a code of conduct for the Supreme Court, plus a constitutional amendment narrowing presidential immunity — as he lays out in a WaPo op-ed. Afterward, Biden will travel to Houston to pay his respects to the late Rep. SHEILA JACKSON LEE, before returning to the White House late at night. More from Adam Cancryn

 

Pro Briefing: Kamala Harris and the World. What we expect on foreign policy and trade. Join POLITICO Pro for a deep-dive conversation with our specialist reporters about the vice president’s approach to foreign policy. Register Now.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump wraps up a campaign rally, Saturday, July 27, 2024, in St. Cloud, Minn. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Donald Trump is trying to yank his campaign in a different direction by going on offense against Kamala Harris. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo

THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN — After a week when Democrats gained momentum, Trump is trying to yank the campaign back in a different direction by going on offense against Harris, per the WSJ. Vance was on the trail yesterday in Waite Park, Minnesota, where it was Republicans who said they felt the energy on their side, the Star Tribune’s Jenny Berg reports. But he hasn’t stopped the VP second-guessing, and WaPo’s Meryl Kornfield, Josh Dawsey and Ashley Parker report that in the last two days before Trump picked Vance, “[a]n array of senators, donors, conservative media personalities and other supporters” urged him to go with someone else. (Trump told them he’d been leaning toward Vance for weeks or months.)

Trump spent some time this weekend outside his typical comfort zone, speaking to religious leaders and Bitcoin lovers, as NYT’s Shawn McCreesh memorably captures. He had to do some code-switching to appeal to crowds that were not necessarily Trump diehards — but found his groove once he started bashing SEC Chair GARY GENSLER to cheering crypto fans. Bloomberg’s Olga Kharif, Stephanie Lai, David Pan and Teresa Xie have a deep dive on how Trump built up a real relationship with the crypto community: in part because it’s mutually beneficial, and in part because he simply loved the NFTs of himself.

But as more voters tune in, scrutiny of Trump’s plans for 2025 will grow, too. On climate and energy, Kelsey Tamborrino, Timothy Cama and Jessie Blaeser take a big look this morning on how Trump could dismantle a centerpiece of Biden’s legacy, examining which policies are most at risk and how hard it will be to undo them. The upshot: A lot of policy changes and spending could be on the chopping block, with few limits in Trump’s way other than his own decisions about how aggressive to be.

On immigration, some of Trump’s ideas could be a little trickier to execute. NBC’s Lawrence Hurley reports that Trump’s plan to end birthright citizenship would face a huge hurdle in the courts. Though mass deportations are perhaps the No. 1 priority for Trump, Jack Herrera reports for POLITICO Magazine that Biden has expelled millions more people than Trump did in his first term — and “it’s not clear how Trump could top him.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD 

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Officials from the U.S., Egypt and Qatar met with Israel yesterday in Rome to try to make progress on a cease-fire/hostage release deal in the Israel-Hamas war, but the talks remain stalled overall as Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU hardened his negotiators’ stance, NYT’s Patrick KingsleyRonen Bergman and Adam Rasgon report. As Israeli-Lebanese tensions spiraled and threatened to open up a second major front in the war, the U.S. urged Israel to avoid major escalation in its response to a deadly attack, and not to target Hezbollah in Beirut, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports.

MORE POLITICS

HEY BIG SPENDER — “House Dem super PAC adds $24M to fall TV ad buys,” by Ally Mutnick: “House Majority PAC is adding $24 million to its initial $186 million in TV and digital reservations in April … Most of that new money will bolster the original buy … But the group, which has close ties to House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, has also identified three new offensive targets,” in Iowa and Wisconsin. “The decision to go after three additional Republicans is a sign of renewed Democratic confidence after a period of deep malaise.”

TRUMP CARDS

A view of the site of the July 13, Trump campaign rally on the grounds of the Butler Farm Show, which was visited by members of the House Committee on Homeland Security, led by Chairman Mark E. Green, R-Tenn., Monday, July 22, 2024, in Butler, Pa. (AP Photo/Jessie Wardarski)

Security officers at Donald Trump’s Butler, Pennsylvania, rally discussed Thomas Crooks before he shot the former president according to newly released texts. | Jessie Wardarski/AP Photo

ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT — New text messages show that security officers at Trump’s Butler, Pennsylvania, rally identified and talked about THOMAS CROOKS more than an hour and a half before he shot the former president, NYT’s Haley Willis, Aric Toler, David Fahrenthold and Adam Goldman reveal. That’s earlier than he was previously known to be fingered by law enforcement. Noticing Crooks outside the venue, one counter-sniper relayed his observation, and other security officers texted about the “kid” with a range finder.

“The messages also add to the evidence that the would-be assassin was often one step ahead of security forces, and in particular the Secret Service,” the Times writes. As for the roof from which Crooks killed a man and injured others, it remains unclear which agency was supposed to be in charge of it. The second hospitalized victim from the shooting, JAMES COPENHAVER, has now been discharged, KDKA-AM’s Heather Lang reports.

TO TELL THE TRUTH SOCIAL — “How to Buy a President,” by N.Y. Mag’s David Freedlander: “Donald Trump’s joke of a media company is also a $6 billion meme stock — and an unprecedented opportunity for corruption.”

 

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BEYOND THE BELTWAY

AILING AMERICA — “They have jobs, but no homes. Inside America’s unseen homelessness crisis,” by WaPo’s Abha Bhattarai: “Homelessness, already at a record high last year, appears to be worsening among people with jobs, as housing becomes further out of reach for low-wage earners."

ON WISCONSIN — “Wisconsin Republicans ask voters to take away governor’s power to spend federal money,” by AP’s Scott Bauer: “Democrats and other opponents are mobilizing against the amendments, calling them a legislative power grab that would hamstring governors’ ability to quickly respond to a future natural disaster, economic crisis or health emergency. … But Republicans and other backers say it’s a necessary check on the governor’s current power, which they say is too broad.”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

Mark Meadows, former chief of staff to former US president Donald Trump, arrives to attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech to a joint meeting of Congress at the US Capitol on July 24, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Drew ANGERER / AFP) (Photo by DREW ANGERER/AFP via Getty Images)

Mark Meadows’ legal team asked the Supreme Court to consider his effort to get the election subversion charges moved from state to federal court. | Drew Angerer/AFP via Getty Images

IMMUNITY CHALLENGE — Former White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS leaned on the Supreme Court’s recent presidential immunity ruling to pitch the justices on moving the Georgia criminal case against him, CNN’s Tierney Sneed scooped. Meadows’ legal team asked the high court to consider his effort to get the election subversion charges moved from state to federal court.

In the long-running legal saga, stemming from Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS’ prosecutions of Trump-world figures alleged to have undermined the 2020 election, Meadows’ arguments lost at an appellate court more than half a year ago. But Meadows got extensions to appeal up to the Supreme Court — and now that its conservative majority has labeled significant portions of presidential actions off limits from prosecution, Meadows’ lawyers said there is new legal basis for a change of venue.

VALLEY TALK

MUSK READ — “How Elon Musk Broke With Biden and the Democrats,” by WSJ’s Dana Mattioli and Emily Glazer: “Tesla officials reached out to the White House multiple times after the inauguration, hoping to connect Biden and [ELON] MUSK … [and] repeatedly got the cold shoulder. The reason: Biden officials didn’t want to anger the powerful United Auto Workers union, which leaned on the White House to keep its distance from Musk … Things only got worse from there. … Musk’s alienation from the Democratic Party is now having far-reaching implications.”

MEDIAWATCH

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — With contract negotiations ongoing at Crooked Media, the Writers Guild of America East is filing an Unfair Labor Practice charge against the company. The union claims that the media network is union-busting by keeping certain staffers out of the bargaining unit. Negotiations, which have been underway for more than a year, are due to resume tomorrow.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Kevin McCarthy said Kamala Harris gave him the cold shoulder after she was elected senator.

Jill Biden is keeping a busy schedule in Paris.

SPOTTED: Anita Dunn and Bob Bauer having dinner Saturday night at Brasserie Liberté.

OUT AND ABOUT — Taste of the South hosted its annual gala at the Anthem Saturday night, raising more than $1 million for mental health charities across Southern states and in Washington. SPOTTED: Molly Vinesett, Mary Collins Howell, Raley Wright, Anna Claire Stietenroth, Callie Strock, Lacy Nelson, Ashley Satterfield, Mariah Greenlee, Elizabeth Blair Hancock, Blair Hancock Lauren Bosler, Laura Ahrens, Lisa Shoemaker, Jessica Greene, Jacqueline Baggett, Jake Hilkin, Micki Werner and Annie Barletta. PicAnother pic

— SPOTTED at the Future Caucus summit, the largest annual bipartisan meeting of Gen Z and millennial state legislators, from Wednesday to Saturday in D.C.: Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Gabe Amo (D-R.I.), Kara Swisher, Roy Wood Jr., Layla Zaidane, Tim Shriver, Frank McCourt, Annie Wu Henry, Tammy Haddad, Margaret Palmieri, Yuval Levin, David Greene, Jesse Moss and Amanda McBaine, Mike Adams, Julie Jensen and Amanda Ripley.

ENGAGED — Chris Howd, senior adviser and director of operations for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and Ansley Bradwell, director at the Herald Group and a Rubio alum, got engaged Friday at L’Auberge Provençale in the Shenandoah Valley. They met while working in Rubio’s office in 2020. PicAnother pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) … NBC’s Peter Alexander … White House’s Herbie ZiskendJa’Ron Smith of CGCN Group … Ken BurnsLise Clavel Carol EisenbergSheila DwyerJim Hake of Spirit of America … POLITICO’s Beth Diaz and Kelsey Brugger … CNN’s Kristin FisherRick VanMeter Laura McGann Alexah RoggeRob Hennings … Hilton’s Katherine LugarLaura Nichols … Bloomberg’s David Westin … AP’s Aaron Kessler Garance Franke-Ruta … former Reps. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.) and Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio) … Karl DouglassDanny Vinik … Washington Lt. Gov. Denny Heck Lyndsay Polloway … former Sens. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) and Nancy Kassebaum Baker (R-Kan.) (92) … Marilyn Quayle Nathan Sell of the American Cleaning Institute … Nate RawlingsYusuf Nekzad of Rep. Nikki Budzinski’s (D-Ill.) office (3-0)

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated Donald Trump’s favorability rating in a new poll. It was 36 percent. It also misspelled Lisa Kashinsky’s name.

 

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