Monday, June 10, 2024

U.S. tries to find a way forward in the Middle East

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Jun 10, 2024 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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THE CATCH-UP

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM — Teamsters President SEAN O’BRIEN, who has held out on endorsing either President JOE BIDEN or DONALD TRUMP, has asked both parties for speaking spots at their conventions, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan report. Since the union typically supports Democrats for president, O’Brien staying neutral — or even just speaking at the Republican convention — could be a boost for Trump.

THE HUNTER BIDEN TRIAL — The prosecution and the defense have rested in HUNTER BIDEN’s gun trial in Delaware. The president’s son ended up not testifying. Judge MARYELLEN NOREIKA gave the jury their instructions, and closing arguments have begun. That means the jurors’ deliberations could start by the end of the day.

Palestinian boys play football surrounded by the rubble of buildings destroyed during previous Israeli bombardment, in Gaza City on June 10, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas militant group. (Photo by Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP) (Photo by OMAR AL-QATTAA/AFP via Getty Images)

Both Israel and Hamas have doubled down on their positions, making movement toward an agreement to end the war look less likely. | Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP via Getty Images

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Senior U.S. officials this week are pressing multiple angles to make progress in ending the Israel-Hamas war. But the odds look daunting after this weekend’s rescue of four Israeli hostages and killing of hundreds of Palestinians pushed both sides further apart than before — so the Biden administration may have to get creative.

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN met with Egyptian President ABDEL FATTAH AL-SISI today, and afterward placed the blame for the ongoing fighting squarely on Hamas for not accepting the deal that Biden helped place on the table, Reuters’ Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Daphne Psaledakis report from Cairo. “If you want a cease-fire, press Hamas to say yes,” Blinken emphasized, even though that pressure has reportedly had the opposite effect thus far. Blinken is traveling to Israel to meet with PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU later today. And the U.N. Security Council is expected to vote at 3 p.m. on a resolution that would urge Hamas to accept a deal.

Nonetheless, both Israel and Hamas have doubled down on their positions, making movement toward an agreement look less likely. And as Israeli airstrikes continue, Palestinian officials said 40 more dead people arrived at hospitals in the past day.

So a novel idea is under consideration: The Biden administration is considering trying to land a unilateral deal directly with Hamas to free the five Americans still being held hostage, NBC’s Monica Alba, Carol Lee and Courtney Kube scooped. That could be the next move from the U.S., which would also want the remains of three Americans who were killed, if the current negotiations with Israel fall apart. The prospect could also put pressure on Israel to agree to the deal.

Other ramifications: The U.S. Consulate in Sydney was vandalized with pro-Palestinian messages today, prompting a mild reproach from Australian PM ANTHONY ALBANESE, per the AP.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — After WaPo reported that Republicans are eyeing new corporate tax cuts if they take control of Washington next year, the White House is indicating that it will seize on these plans to hammer the GOP with populist economic messaging. A new memo from senior deputy press secretary ANDREW BATES calls the ideas “deficit-busting tax giveaways to major corporations” and “corporate sweetheart deals,” deriding Trump’s economic plans for likely worsening inflation. The full memo

There are flickers of life for Biden’s economic image in the latest FT-Michigan Ross poll, which sees Trump’s lead on the economy among registered voters falling from 11 points in February to 4 points in June. Biden is relatively strong with older voters in particular, though the survey still shows major vulnerability for the president on his handling of the economy.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Did ERIC HOVDE opt for a California beach day over a rural Wisconsin campaign stop? The GOP Senate candidate was on the bill for a meet and greet at Oconto County’s Copperfest Parade on Saturday. But Wisconsin Democrats (who have been trying to paint him as a carpetbagger) got a photo from a tipster who said Hovde was in Laguna Beach, California, where he owns a home. You can’t see the man’s face, but he appears to be with CARSON LAPPETITO, president of Hovde’s bank, and he seems to have the same hat, bathing suit and beach chair as in this previous video of Hovde that a tracker recorded. Hovde’s campaign and the Oconto County GOP didn’t respond to questions. Judge the pic for yourself

Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Chair of the Federal Election Commission Dara Lindenbaum speaks during a Federal Election Commission public meeting on whether it should regulate the use of AI-generated political campaign advertisements, Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)

FEC Commissioner Dara Lindenbaum has unleashed a flood of deregulation by aligning with Republicans. | Stephanie Scarbrough/AP Photo

1. FASCINATING SHIFT: “How the Federal Election Commission Went From Deadlock to Deregulation,” by NYT’s Shane Goldmacher: “In a series of recent decisions that are remaking the landscape of money in American politics, an ascendant new bloc of three Republicans and one Democrat is voting together to roll back limits on how politicians, political parties and super PACs raise and spend money. Reform groups are aghast at what they see as the swift unraveling of longstanding restraints. Conservatives who for years have dreamed of loosening restrictions are delighted, even though many of the rulings were sought by one of the Democratic Party’s most prominent attorneys, MARC ELIAS

“The changes amount to some of the most significant regulatory revisions since the campaign finance law, the McCain-Feingold Act … At the center of the shift is Commissioner DARA LINDENBAUM.”

2. PRIMARY COLORS: It’s flown a little under the radar, but there’s a competitive South Carolina congressional primary not involving Rep. NANCY MACE: Freedom Caucus-backed state Rep. ADAM MORGAN is challenging incumbent GOP Rep. WILLIAM TIMMONS, NBC’s Bridget Bowman reports. His opponents cast him as a KEVIN McCARTHY-supporting moderate, but Timmons says he’s actually more conservative than many of Morgan’s supporters. “Yet he still could be vulnerable,” NBC writes, especially with rumors of a past extramarital affair still swirling.

Timmons does have one ace up his sleeve: Trump’s support. That’s just one of several endorsement decisions from the former president lately that have frustrated the Freedom Caucus, Punchbowl’s Mica Soellner reports. … And read this deep dive from Slate’s Jim Newell for the latest criticisms of Mace from those who used to work for her.

Another race to watch: Will 22-year-old ELIAS IRIZARRY unseat a South Carolina state representative in the GOP primary? Irizarry was arrested for his actions on Jan. 6 and expressed contrition in court — then turned around and trumpeted his participation, NYT’s Richard Fausset reports.

3. OFF THE BEATEN TRACK: “DNC invests $2M in 11 non-battleground state parties, targeting down-ballot races,” by ABC’s Isabella Murray and Tal Axelrod: “[The] first-of-its-kind investments [are] in on-the-ground organizing, data infrastructure and voter-turnout efforts … This spending in Maryland, Texas, Colorado, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah and Washington will target high-profile races like the U.S. Senate contest in Maryland, but also do things like get out indigenous voters in places such as South Dakota and mobilize residents of apartment buildings in Minnesota.”

4. SWING-STATE DISPATCH: Despite new weaknesses with younger and minority voters, Biden is showing some resilience with white working-class voters — especially in Wisconsin, WaPo’s Theo Meyer reports from Monroe. There, a legacy of rural progressivism and the attendant Democratic organizing structures are helping to keep Trump’s margins down and Biden’s standing competitive. Biden has a massive field operation in Wisconsin. As in similar areas of New England and Minnesota that have stayed Democratic, many of these small towns still offer decent job opportunities for people without bachelor’s degrees. Still, the GOP is making inroads.

Related poll: A new Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota poll finds Biden narrowly leading Trump, 45 percent to 41 percent in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, while ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. pulls just 6 percent. But Biden has an enthusiasm problem.

 

THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.

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5. AFTERNOON READ: In the second-longest cover story The Atlantic has published in the past four decades, George Packer goes deep on Phoenix as emblematic of America’s precarious climate and political future. Leading the magazine’s July/August issue focused on climate change, he writes that “Phoenix makes you keenly aware of human artifice — its ingenuity and its fragility.” Extreme heat threatening the city’s future exists alongside rapid growth. “Democracy is also a fragile artifice. It depends less on tradition and law than on the shifting contents of individual skulls — belief, virtue, restraint. Its durability under natural and human stress is being put to an intense test in the Valley.”

6. SPOILER ALERT: “The Quiet Voice in R.F.K. Jr.’s Ear: A Former Aide to the Clintons,” by NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien: “Now a Hollywood screenwriter, [JAY] CARSON, 47, has the résumé of a Democratic insider. … He describes ANITA DUNN, a senior adviser to President Biden, as his political godmother … As an informal adviser, Mr. Carson has offered Mr. Kennedy encouragement and guidance … They are close friends … Like many Kennedy supporters, Mr. Carson experienced a crisis of faith during the coronavirus pandemic … His latest project is the subject of much hand-wringing among his friends, creative partners and former colleagues.”

7. THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GUN DEBATE: The majority of American gun deaths — tens of thousands every year — are suicides, though most political conversation about guns centers on murders. In Montana, the state with some of the nation’s worst suicide rates, NYT’s Michael Corkery reports on an effort to improve gun safety led by people who have lost loved ones to suicide. “But in a place where guns are embedded in the rugged, frontier ethos, there is little political will to prevent people who are at risk of harming themselves from owning a gun.” Even a red flag law couldn’t get traction in the state legislature.

8. DEMOCRACY WATCH: “Nevada has a plan to expand electronic voting. That concerns election security experts,” by AP’s Christina Cassidy in Schurz: “The new process — the ability to cast ballots electronically — has the potential to significantly boost turnout among all tribes in Nevada. But what some see as a small measure of justice to equalize voting rights raises security concerns for others … Experts warn that such voting — when a completed ballot is sent back either by email, through an online portal or by fax — carries risks of ballots being intercepted or manipulated and should be used sparingly, if at all.”

 

JOIN US ON 6/13 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF HEALTH CARE: As Congress and the White House work to strengthen health care affordability and access, innovative technologies and treatments are increasingly important for patient health and lower costs. What barriers are appearing as new tech emerges? Is the Medicare payment process keeping up with new technologies and procedures? Join us on June 13 as POLITICO convenes a panel of lawmakers, officials and experts to discuss what policy solutions could expand access to innovative therapies and tech. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Jill Biden’s Wilmington-Paris flights could put taxpayers and the DNC on the hook.

Donald Trump’s liquor licenses in New Jersey are being reviewed after his conviction.

Joe and Bridgette Seales’ Right Side Broadcasting Network is doing business with the Trump campaign.

Dan Helmer is facing unspecified allegations of “inappropriate behavior.”

IN MEMORIAM — “NAW Mourns the Passing of Dirk Van Dongen, Transformative Leader and Advocate for American Business: Dirk was a formidable presence in American politics, starting from the Reagan administration. In addition to his work electing pro-business leaders to Congress, he served as co-chairman of several finance committees for the election of GOP Presidential candidates.”

OUT AND ABOUT — The Ford’s Theatre annual gala last night honored Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Stephen A. Schwarzman, and featured performances by Josh Groban, Brian Stokes Mitchell, Bernadette Peters and Emmy Russell. SPOTTED: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Sens. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), Reps. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Mike Turner (R-Ohio), Art and Sela Collins, Gloria Story Dittus, Carlos Elizondo, Terri Fariello, Barbara Humpton, Kent Knutson, Z Ojakli, John Mason, John McCarthy, Heather Podesta, Steve Ricchetti and Mike Sommers.

MEDIA MOVE — Stephanie Armour will be a senior D.C. health policy correspondent at KFF Health News. She previously has been a senior health care policy reporter at the WSJ.

TRANSITIONS — Kevin Glass is now external relations director for economic policy comms at AARP. He previously was VP at the National Taxpayers Union, and is a Townhall alum. … Chelsey Peppe will be a senior account manager at Good Influence. She previously was a senior associate at 1063 West Broad and is a Planned Parenthood alum.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Allison Feikes, legislative assistant for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), and Seth Brown, a real estate analyst at Wilkes Artis Chartered, got married at her grandparents’ home in Indiana. They met on Bumble in August 2020 and had their first date at Don Taco in Alexandria. PicAnother pic

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Correction: Friday’s Playbook PM misidentified the outlet in which a story by Evan McMorris-Santoro and Alex Roarty appeared. It is NOTUS.

 

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