ANOTHER TOUGH WEEK FOR THE HOUSE GOP The House will dive head-first into its summertime to-do list this week — while making its first big floor move on the investigative front in a while. Whether Republicans can make real headway on their ambitious goals is another question. On the first front, Speaker Mike Johnson is trying to convince more moderate members to help hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress for refusing to hand over audio of former special counsel Robert Hur’s interview with President Joe Biden. On the second front, Johnson will also try to pass a currently bipartisan defense policy bill that he’s getting conservative pressure to stack with the right flank’s top priorities. So far, House GOP aides are projecting confidence that the party can get it all done. But they can only afford to lose two votes in the narrowly divided chamber – and Johnson is getting pushed from his right to do even more to push back on the Department of Justice after former President Donald Trump’s 34-count felony conviction, which adds still another wrinkle. We’ll start with Garland: No Republican has said publicly that they will oppose contempt but there are signs of lingering skepticism. Around a half-dozen have privately expressed opposition to a contempt vote, according to a person familiar with the behind-the-scenes discussions who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. Leadership is nonetheless bullish about the vote, expected on the floor Wednesday, per two GOP aides. Another Republican close to leadership told us support for Garland contempt is “pretty baked in” on their side, especially considering that Democrats have deployed the power in their own Trump probe – most famously against the former president’s onetime adviser Steve Bannon. (Unlike Bannon, Garland, who did hand over the Hur interview transcript, is all but guaranteed not to face criminal charges given that Biden asserted executive privilege over the audio.) Holding Garland in contempt would be a political victory for Johnson. MAGA-friendly members in his conference are eager to land big blows against the DOJ and Biden. Perhaps more importantly, it’s not clear whether Johnson has any options beyond the symbolic gesture of holding Garland in contempt. Impeaching Biden has long been off the table. Legislation meant to hit back at President Donald Trump’s 34 felony convictions appears DOA for now. And conservatives know their vow to use this year’s funding bills to overhaul the DOJ is going nowhere unless they can convince their colleagues to shut down the government over it. That’s not to say contempt is totally locked down yet. Your newsletter hosts keep hearing rumblings that some moderates are still privately raising concerns. Some in that camp have floated hopes to us that the DOJ and leadership can find an offramp to avoid the vote altogether — which seems unlikely at this point. Even if Johson gets contempt done, he’s got other headaches waiting: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is again flirting with forcing a vote on Biden’s impeachment, though she’s hinted that it’s not imminent as she tries to gather support from GOP colleagues. In addition, Greene and other Republicans from the right of the conference are publicly pressuring Johnson to hold a vote to invalidate Bannon and Peter Navarro’s subpoenas from the Jan. 6 committee. On to the other big hurdle this week: Johnson is navigating a trickier situation on this year’s defense policy bill, known as the National Defense Authorization Act. The bill came out of committee with overwhelming bipartisan support (it only got one no vote). But Johnson’s right flank is lining up to try to inject their biggest goals — ranging from cutting off Ukraine funding to polarizing social issues — into the bill. The bellwether of trouble ahead for GOP leaders here is amendments. Because the minority party doesn’t typically help a bill get to the floor, Johnson will need near-unanimity from his side. And his right flank is first waiting to see which of the more than 1,300 proposed amendments are teed up for a floor vote. If it makes it to the floor, it will be time to watch how any amendment votes play out. Loading up the bill with conservative wish-list items would likely chip away at that bipartisan support (and set up a bigger fight over the final bill toward the end of the year). But if Republicans help squash those same amendments, the final vote this week will end up spotlighting divisions within the conference. — Jordain Carney and Sarah Ferris
| 
No comments:
Post a Comment