| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | Presented by |  | | | | | No incumbent has been ousted by a primary challenger this cycle. That could change on Tuesday. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is no stranger to the political spotlight, from her back-and-forth relationship with former President Donald Trump and voting to oust Kevin McCarthy from the speakership, to her strained record with her staff. National attention will be on her once again this week as she faces a primary challenge in the Charleston-based district from Catherine Templeton, the former head of the state health and environment department who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2018.
|  Rep. Nancy Mace faces a primary challenge on Tuesday. | Meg Kinnard/AP | Around $9 million has been poured into the primary, per ad tracker AdImpact. The biggest player, contributing around one-third of the total spending, is South Carolina Patriots PAC, a “pop-up” PAC with ties to McCarthy allies that has been looking to unseat the two-term incumbent. Two other groups within the McCarthy orbit, super PAC Lowcountry Conservatives and nonprofit American Prosperity Alliance, spent around $500,000 each against Mace. McCarthy allies are leading an effort to target the eight Republicans who took the former speaker down, and Mace is the first to face a primary this cycle. Templeton has also benefited from the support of Winning For Women Action Fund, which formerly backed Mace. In 2022, the group spent more than $500,000 in support of the incumbent. This year, it has spent more than $800,000 for her opponent. And Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) threw his backing behind Templeton last week. But Mace has some heavy-hitting support of her own. Trump endorsed her — a major difference from her 2022 run, when he backed her ultimately unsuccessful primary challenger after Mace blamed him for the Capitol riot. And Club for Growth Action has placed $1.3 million on advertising in support of her as well, along with Win It Back PAC, a super PAC with ties to the Club, which has spent $1.8 million on the airwaves. She also has the backing of South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster. South Carolina’s 1st District would have voted for Trump by nine points in 2020, and Mace has argued that Templeton, whom she attacks as McCarthy’s “puppet,” can’t win the district in the general election. (Templeton’s campaign maintained that she was not recruited by the former speaker.) Businessperson Michael B. Moore and veteran Mac Deford are vying for the Democratic nod. Mace’s political future may be in question beyond Tuesday; a third candidate, Bill Young, is also running in the GOP primary. If no candidate earns a majority of the vote, a runoff will be held two weeks later. Mace’s primary is just one to watch in a string of challenges to Republican incumbents over the next two weeks. In South Carolina’s 4th District, Republican Rep. William Timmons faces a primary on Tuesday from state Rep. Adam Morgan, who’s running to his right. Next week, Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma’s 4th District also has a challenge from Paul Bondar, a self-funding businessperson whom the incumbent has attacked for his ties to Texas. And in Virginia, Rep. Bob Good — the House Freedom Caucus chair who also voted to oust McCarthy and initially supported Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president before endorsing Trump when DeSantis dropped out — is getting primaried by state Sen. John McGuire. Millions of dollars have been poured into advertising in these races ahead of the primaries. Good’s and Cole's races have outpaced Mace’s, with more than $13 million and $10 million, respectively, placed through next week’s primary. All of those current members have the backing of Trump, with the exception of Good, whose challenger snagged the former president’s endorsement. And while the primary victor likely won’t impact the battle for control of the House in the fall — these are mostly reliably safe GOP seats — the primaries are just the latest fights over the direction of the caucus ahead of next year. No non-incumbent challenger has defeated a sitting member of Congress so far this cycle. Earlier this year, Alabama Republican Rep. Jerry Carl lost to Rep. Barry Moore in a rare member-vs-member rematch created by redistricting. Happy Monday! Huge thanks to Mia (mmccarthy@politico.com, @Reporter_Mia) and the rest of the team for filling in while I was on vacation. Catch me up on what’s going on: mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina primaries: 1 Days until the Oklahoma and Virginia primaries: 8 Days until the Colorado, New York and Utah primaries: 15 Days until the Republican National Convention: 37 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 70 Days until the 2024 election: 148
| | | | A message from PREMION Political: Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential. As eyeballs continue to move away from linear TV and the time and attention of consumers and voters shifts to streaming, political ad dollars must move with them. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Click to download the complimentary report now. | | | | | ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Trump endorsed veteran Sam Brown ahead of Tuesday’s competitive Nevada Senate GOP primary. Brown, who has the backing of the NRSC, faces former U.S. ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter and former state Rep. Jim Marchant in tomorrow’s primary. TAKING THE STAGE — The first debate for the high-stakes Montana Senate race took place on Sunday between Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy. The candidates “pressed hard to show voters the Grand Canyon-sized difference in their biographies,” Montana State News Bureau’s Holly Michels writes. On immigration, “Sheehy told viewers he was glad to see [President Joe] Biden finally take action recently in the form of an executive order on the southern border with Mexico, but said it was too little too late and politically motivated. … Tester was also critical of Biden, saying the president should have taken action earlier. But he said it’s Republicans that have played politics with the issue by killing a bipartisan deal brokered in Congress after Trump came out in opposition of it.” LEGAL LOOK — Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who is facing federal charges for allegedly accepting bribes from foreign entities, will have his trial after the November election after it was initially scheduled for July, per The Texas Tribune’s Matthew Choi. Cuellar has denied the allegations and is running for reelection this year in TX-28, a seat that Biden would have won by around 7 points in 2020, against Republican Jay Furman. WHO’S RECOUNTING? — Texas Republican Brandon Herrera, the pro-gun social media influencer who narrowly lost his primary runoff to Rep. Tony Gonzales by around 400 votes, said he’s requesting a recount — although he doesn’t expect it to change the outcome. “We don’t have any real evidence of anything that we think would move the needle enough to be able to overturn the results,” he said, adding that he owes it to his supporters to ensure it was accurate. He said that “a couple of people” reached out to pay for part of the recount, and he would pay for the rest of it. PARTY PROBLEMS — Colorado Republican Party Chair Dave Williams is facing calls to step down from his role, Colorado Politics’ Ernest Luning reports. Nancy Pallozzi, the chair of the Jefferson County Republican Party — one of the state’s most populous counties — launched a petition to oust him, in part because he “crossed a line … with a mass email from the state party attacking Pride Month,” Luning writes. Williams is also running for CO-05, a safe red district held by retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn, and faces a primary from Speaker Mike Johnson-backed Jeff Crank. IN THE STATES — New Jersey Republican Bill Spadea is planning to run for governor in 2025, per the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein. He’s the fourth Republican candidate to enter the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, including state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli and former state Sen. Ed Durr. COURT WATCHIN’ — Michigan Republican Matt DePerno, who ran unsuccessfully for attorney general in 2022 and faces felony charges for mishandling election equipment, is considering a bid for Michigan Supreme Court this year, per The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger. Four of the seven justices on the court were nominated or appointed by Democrats. One Republican and one Democratic seat are up for grabs this fall, and DePerno is looking at the Democratic-appointed seat.
| | | | JOIN US ON 6/12 FOR A TALK ON THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY: As air travel soars again, policymakers and airlines are grappling with a series of contemporary challenges to the industry's future. Join POLITICO on June 12 for a topical and timely conversation with government leaders and aviation stakeholders about the state of the airline industry. From what passengers want to what airlines need amid the high demand for air traffic, workers and technology solutions. What can Washington do to ensure passengers and providers are equipped to fly right? REGISTER HERE. | | | | | Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
| | HOW DO YOU DO, FELLOW KIDS? — A new pro-Biden super PAC aimed at youth voters is working with “millennial and Gen Z writers, directors and producers to help craft pro-Biden content that’s specifically engineered to sell an octogenarian candidate to typically disillusioned and hard-to-reach voters under 30,” POLITICO’s Elena Schneider reports. The group, Won’t PAC Down, is planning to raise and spend upward of $25 million. BALLOT BATTLE — Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign said it has collected enough signatures to make the ballot in 19 states, for a total of 278 electoral votes — a key threshold as the candidate argues he should be allowed to participate in CNN’s presidential debate later this month. Those signatures have not yet been verified in more than half of those states.
| | EYES ON AIPAC — The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is the “rare political organization that still garners support from Republican and Democratic donors while supporting candidates from both parties” — and it’s also the “biggest source of Republican money flowing into competitive Democratic primaries this year,” POLITICO’s Jessica Piper and Hailey Fuchs write in a new analysis of campaign finance data. “Nearly half of AIPAC donors to Democratic candidates this year have some recent history of giving to Republican campaigns or committees.”
| | | | A message from PREMION Political:   | | | | | MI-Sen — Republican businessperson Sandy Pensler features a Marine veteran accusing primary opponent former Rep. Mike Rogers, who played a role in investigating the 2012 Benghazi attack, of going “along with Hillary Clinton” and wanting “Americans to forget what happened in Benghazi.” Pensler’s campaign hit Rogers with a similar attack over Benghazi last month. TX-Sen — Win It Back PAC is targeting Rep. Colin Allred, a Black Democrat running against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, over reparations. “I grew up poor and I've worked really hard and I don't feel like it's fair for me to have to pay for that,” a Hispanic woman says. The spot is also running in Spanish. WI-Sen — Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is continuing to hammer likely Republican opponent Eric Hovde for previously saying that most seniors in nursing homes are not “in a point to vote.” Hovde has pushed back against such attacks. WA-Gov — Former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert says he won’t change Washington law protecting abortion access and believes that politicians shouldn’t make those decisions. He accuses Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson of “trying to spread fear by saying things that I don’t believe and will not do.” The ad is set to run this summer, per Axios’ Sophia Cai and Erin Doherty. The top-two nonpartisan primary for the seat is in August. NV-04 — Republican John Lee leans into his endorsement from Trump in the race to take on Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford. NY-01 — WelcomePAC, an outside group supporting centrist Democrats, calls Democrat Nancy Goroff, who unsuccessfully ran for the seat in 2020, a “risk we can’t afford” and touts primary opponent John Avlon as the “common-sense Democrat who can win” against Republican Rep. Nick LaLota. NY-16 — Democratic Westchester County Executive George Latimer says that voters are “fed up” with “Trump extremists in Washington and a congressman spreading lies and conspiracy theories,” referencing a report that primary opponent Rep. Jamaal Bowman promoted 9/11 conspiracy theories. The spot also accuses the incumbent of not supporting Biden, and highlights Trump’s policies on abortion and guns (and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem shooting her dog). OK-04 — Americans 4 Security PAC continues to accuse Bondar of living in Texas. VA-05 — McGuire highlights his endorsement from Trump in his primary challenge against Good. … House Freedom Action, the political arm of the House Freedom Caucus, hits McGuire as a “flip-flopping career politician” who is not “MAGA material.”
| | | | JOIN US ON 6/13 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF HEALTH CARE: As Congress and the White House work to strengthen health care affordability and access, innovative technologies and treatments are increasingly important for patient health and lower costs. What barriers are appearing as new tech emerges? Is the Medicare payment process keeping up with new technologies and procedures? Join us on June 13 as POLITICO convenes a panel of lawmakers, officials and experts to discuss what policy solutions could expand access to innovative therapies and tech. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | UT-Gov — Republican Gov. Spencer Cox has a strong lead over primary challenger state Rep. Phil Lyman, who earned the backing of the state party earlier this year. Cox has 62 percent of support compared to his challenger’s 25 percent in a Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by HarrisX ahead of this month’s primary (477 likely Republican primary voters, June 4-6, MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points). CODA: HEADLINE OF THE DAY — “No ‘calamari comeback’? The squid chef from Democrats’ 2020 convention says he’s a Trump backer” — The Associated Press
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