Friday, May 17, 2024

Trump’s Minnesota dream might not be fantasy

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May 17, 2024 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Garrett Ross

Presented by the Financial Services Forum

THE CATCH-UP

QUITE A HEADLINE — “Glamorous GOP Rep. Beth Van Duyne breaks her silence on love affair with married Georgia Republican Rich McCormick,” by Daily Mail’s Jon Michael Raasch and Morgan Phillips: “Van Duyne told DailyMail.com Friday that Rich and his wife are both’'incredible people’ and … ‘[h]is marriage has been over for quite some time as I understand it, he’s filed for divorce.’”

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump walks of stage after speaking in front of a large audience of supporters at a campaign event at the Waukesha County Expo Center.

Donald Trump is still dreaming of an improbable win in Minnesota. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

PURPLE BRAIN — DONALD TRUMP has been dreaming of a Minnesota flip to pierce the Democratic “blue wall” ever since 2016.

Back then, Trump came within 2 points of HILLARY CLINTON, the closest of any GOP nominee since RICHARD NIXON — prompting him to promise a win in 2020. “I lose Minnesota, I’m never coming back,” he said at the time. (He lost to Biden by 6 points.)

But now he is coming back, set to headline the Minnesota GOP’s Lincoln Reagan Dinner in St. Paul tonight. “And once again, he and his allies are boasting that the Democratic-heavy state is in play,” Adam Wren, Natalie Allison and Burgess Everett report.

“Senior Trump advisers presented new polling data to top donors earlier this month, showing slide decks inside the Four Seasons Palm Beach that argued Minnesota and Virginia were the top two states where Trump could expand the map this November.”

The breakdown: “During the presentation, campaign advisers CHRIS LaCIVITA, SUSIE WILES and pollster TONY FABRIZIO flashed numbers on screen from another Trump pollster, John McLaughlin, showing President Joe Biden and Trump tied at 40 percent in Minnesota, and Biden up 3 percentage points in Virginia. Without independent ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. as an option, Trump was up 5 points in Minnesota and Biden up 1 point in Virginia, the advisers told donors.”

And while even Republicans in the state are skeptical, Trump’s hopes aren’t without merit: “Trump is running ahead of Biden in swing state general election polls, and if Trump can replicate his 2016 performance, when he lost the state by fewer than 45,000 votes, he could at least put a scare into Democrats.”

Related read: “Trump Visits Minnesota, Hoping Its Political Divide Will Put It in Play,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman

RALLY ’ROUND THE FLAG — Supreme Court Justice SAMUEL ALITO spoke with Fox News’ Shannon Bream about the NYT report that an upside-down flag was flown outside his house in the weeks after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack — a symbol that became a rallying cry for Trump’s supporters sympathetic to his baseless “Stop the Steal” rhetoric.

“In addition to what's in the story, he told me a neighbor on their street had a ‘F--- Trump’ sign that was within 50 feet of where children await the school bus in [January 2021]. [Wife MARTHA-ANN] ALITO brought this up with the neighbor,” Bream posted on X. “According to Justice Alito, things escalated and the neighbor put up a sign personally addressing Mrs. Alito and blaming her for the Jan 6th attacks.

“Justice Alito says he and his wife were walking in the neighborhood and there were words between Mrs. Alito and a male at the home with the sign. Alito says the man engaged in vulgar language, ‘including the c-word’. Following that exchange, Mrs. Alito was distraught and hung the flag upside down ‘for a short time’. Justice Alito says some neighbors on his street are ‘very political’ and acknowledges it was a very heated time in January 2021.”

Alito did not address, among other things, why his wife chose that particular demonstration and whether he personally was aware of it at the time.

As the NYT’s Glenn Thrush points out, “This appears to be a confirmation that 1) the [Jodi Kantor] story is accurate [and] 2) he had a general awareness that an upside-down flag was an emblem of Trump's rejection of … a free and fair election.”

Senate Judiciary Chair DICK DURBIN, meanwhile, called on Alito to more formally address the controversy, saying in a statement that the report “clearly creates the appearance of bias” and that the Supreme Court “is in an ethical crisis of its own making.”

“Justice Alito should recuse himself immediately from cases related to the 2020 election and the January 6th insurrection, including the question of the former President’s immunity in U.S. v. Donald Trump, which the Supreme Court is currently considering,” the Illinois Democrat said in a statement. More from CNBC’s Dan Mangan 

THE WILD WORLD WE LIVE IN NOW — “The Landmark Supreme Court Audio You Were Never Meant to Hear,” by WSJ’s Jess Bravin: “Using sleuthing, voice actors and AI, a determined professor resurrects unrecorded oral arguments from Brown v. Board. Says one retired justice: A ‘little creepy’ but ‘amazing.’”

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. MITCH McCONNELL, if you're reading, we imagine SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER would really appreciate if you could make a phone call or two this afternoon. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.

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SCHNEIDER'S REVENGE — Comedian ROB SCHNEIDER doesn’t seem to have gotten over getting booted off the stage of a Republican group’s holiday party last year, Daniel Lippman reports. Performing at the Lincoln Theatre last night, he again disputed that his performance for the Senate Working Group was cut short, as Playbook reported last month.

“It didn’t go very well,” he said to laughter, “but I did my fucking time and they gave me my fucking check because that’s what I do. I didn’t give a shit that they were eating dinner anyway. Fuck them.” He speculated that Playbook only ran the item because of his support for ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., whose gravelly voice he still made fun of during the show.

Schneider proceeded to read off some of the jokes that didn’t land well and led Sen. CINDY HYDE-SMITH (R-Miss.) to leave the performance after a few minutes.

Here’s one of them: “I, Rob Schneider, cannot fathom why everyone I know refers to this town as Hollywood for ugly people. That got the senator from Mississippi’s attention, and I said: Personally I’d [have sex with] anybody in this room. Almost anyone.”

5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

President Joe Biden speaks at Gateway Technical College in Sturtevant, Wisconsin.

President Joe Biden is making a strong push to reach Black voters this weekend. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

1. WHAT BIDEN IS UP TO THIS WEEKEND: Biden is making his way to Atlanta and Detroit this weekend with the intention of increasing his campaign’s outreach to Black voters, in a “bid to reclaim support among a once-reliable voting bloc now showing a lack of enthusiasm,” WSJ’s Cameron McWhirter writes from Atlanta. “The marquee event is delivering the commencement address at Morehouse College, the prestigious, all-male historically Black college and the alma mater of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on Sunday. After his speech at Morehouse, the president is flying to Detroit to speak at a large NAACP chapter dinner there.”

Biden will be just the second sitting president to deliver a speech at Morehouse after former President BARACK OBAMA did so in 2013. “But news of the president’s visit has stirred tensions on campus and in the wider Black community. Some Morehouse faculty and students oppose U.S. support for Israel in its war in Gaza. Some have discussed protesting at the graduation ceremony.”

Digging into the data: “They Supported Biden in 2020. What Made Them Change Their Minds in 2024?” by NYT’s Claire Cain Miller, Bianca Pallaro and Ruth Igielnik … “Voters Prefer Trump Over Biden on Economy. This Data Shows Why,” by Bloomberg’s Mark Niquette, Phil Kuntz and Stuart Paul

2. HAPPENING TODAY: The United Auto Workers’ “bid to organize more nonunion auto factories faces another test Friday, as voting concludes at a large Mercedes-Benz plant in Alabama,” WSJ’s Mike Colias writes. “A win in Alabama would further build the UAW’s momentum, after a decisive victory at a Volkswagen plant in Tennessee last month. … A rejection, however, would mark the first setback for the UAW’s fiery president, SHAWN FAIN, who has rejuvenated the 89-year-old labor group through his passionate rhetoric and a more combative stance with Detroit’s automakers.”

 

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3. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: “Israel Resists Grand Bargain as U.S. and Saudis Work on Security Pact,” by NYT’s Edward Wong and Vivian Nereim: “Two years into President Biden’s term, his aides began negotiating with Saudi leaders to have the kingdom establish diplomatic relations with Israel. But when the Israel-Hamas war began last October, the talks withered. American and Saudi officials have tried to revive prospects for a deal by demanding more from Israel — a cease-fire in Gaza and irreversible steps toward the founding of a Palestinian nation. Now those officials say they are close to a final agreement on the main elements of what the Saudis want from the deal: a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense pact and cooperation on a civilian nuclear program in the kingdom.”

But despite efforts from top U.S. officials including Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, “there are no signs that Israeli leaders are moving to join them, despite the symbolic importance for Israel of establishing ties with Saudi Arabia, the most powerful Arab nation. That resistance, along with a potential full-scale assault by the Israeli military on the Palestinian city of Rafah, puts in jeopardy a potential three-way grand bargain that Mr. Biden envisions as the foundation to a long-term solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

Related read: “What Israel’s strategic corridor in Gaza reveals about its postwar plans,” by WaPo’s Loveday Morris, Evan Hill, Samuel Granados and Hazem Balousha

4. TRUMP 2.0: Trump’s inner circle is now “drawing up detailed proposals” for an “unprecedented immigration crackdown” if the former president returns to the White House, “including an effort that would deport asylum seekers to other countries,” WSJ’s Michelle Hackman and Andrew Restuccia report. The “cadre of former Trump administration officials, Trump supporters and conservative immigration wonks are writing executive orders, policy memos and other documents” with the intention of having a plan ready to go on Day One of a potential second administration.

The details: “Those involved are discussing issues including ways to expedite migrants’ asylum hearings to make them more quickly eligible for deportation; rescind deportation protections for hundreds of thousands of migrants created by the Biden administration; and force countries across the globe to accept back more of their deported citizens.”

5. WHERE THEY ARE NOW: “Amy Kremer helped organize the pro-Trump Jan. 6 rally. Now she is seeking a Georgia seat on the RNC,” by AP’s Jeff Amy: “Kremer, a conservative activist from suburban Atlanta, wasn’t part of the mob that hours later stormed the Capitol as Congress met to certify Democrat Joe Biden as Trump’s successor. But it was Kremer’s group that secured the permit for the ‘Save America’ rally where Trump told the crowd to ‘fight like hell,’ and she was among the most active fundraisers in the ‘Stop the Steal’ movement advancing the lie that Biden’s victory was stolen. …

“The votes at a state party convention Saturday are expected to show how consumed by the 2020 election the GOP remains in Georgia and everywhere else. Kremer argues the RNC hasn’t done enough to fight for Trump or protect others who fought for him, like the 16 Georgia Republicans who falsely claimed to be valid Trump electors in a state Joe Biden won.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT — The Beer Institute yesterday hosted its Kickoff to Summer event for members of Congress and their staff, media and beer industry leaders at the Bullpen to celebrate the start of summer and the introduction of the CHEERS Act, which provides a tax deduction for bars, restaurants and entertainment venues to install or modernize their draft systems. SPOTTED: Reps. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.), Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.), Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.), Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa), Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Max Miller (R-Ohio), Olivia Beavers, Megan Wilson, Timothy Nerozzi, Laura Davison, Zachary Halaschak, Tom Snedeker, Brian Crawford, Susan Haney, Mary Jane Saunders, Bill Young, Stacy Skelly, Alex Davidson, Annie and Justin Lange, Jeff Guittard, Andrew Heritage, Andrew Reilly, Katie Marisic, Ian Jannetta, Kevin Kincheloe, Teresa Skala, David Caruolo, Nell Reilly, Richard Crawford, Jim Sabia, Matt Stanton, Liz Lopez, Edgar Guillaumin and David Morgenstern.

— SPOTTED: Entergy CEO Drew Marsh, chief nuclear officer Kimberly Cook-Nelson and Entergy’s utility presidents Haley Fisackerly and Eliecer Viamontes met on Capitol Hill yesterday to discuss grid resiliency with Sens. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and John Kennedy (R-La.) and Reps. Michael Guest (R-Miss.), Trent Kelly (R-Miss.), Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), Pete Sessions (R-Texas) and Randy Weber (R-Texas).

TRANSITIONS — Eric Leyden is now social media and digital specialist at the RNC. He previously was rapid response director at the Republican State Leadership Committee. … Jack Patterson is now comms officer for Paid Leave Oregon. He previously was comms manager at American Oversight. … Troy Lyons is joining Holland & Hart as senior director of federal affairs. He previously was VP of government affairs at the American Exploration & Production Council. … Tim Spangler is joining McDermott Will & Emery as a partner. He previously was a partner at Dechert.

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