News: China’s big moves in the Indo-Pacific

Friday, May 17, 2024

China’s big moves in the Indo-Pacific

May 17, 2024

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By Phelim Kine and Matt Berg

Sailors march past the insignia for the People's Liberation Army's naval submarine academy.

Beijing insists that its activities at Ream are to boost the capacity of Cambodia’s navy. | Ng Han Guan/AP

With help from Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman

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China is expanding operations at a naval base in southern Cambodia so much that it could be on the road to becoming Beijing’s first permanent foreign-based military outpost in the Indo-Pacific, former officials tell us. That’s despite plenty of warnings from the Biden administration to ease off.

Beijing spent the past two years renovating the Ream Naval Base after Cambodia demolished the facility’s U.S.-built structures and has parked two corvette-class vessels there for the past five months.

That’s just for starters. In the next few days, the Chinese landing vessel Jinggangshan and training ship Qijiguang will visit Ream for exercises with Cambodian cadets, according to China’s Defense Ministry. Ream also has a large enough pier to accommodate aircraft carriers, giving those ships easy access to the Gulf of Thailand and key sea lanes in South China Sea.

“This is about [China] having a more persistent naval presence against Indonesia and Malaysia in the Natuna Sea and the North Borneo area,” Ret. Rear Admiral MARK MONTGOMERY, former director of U.S. Pacific Command, told NatSec Daily.

Montgomery warned that Ream “could turn into Djibouti” — a reference to how Beijing grew what it originally described as a logistics facility in the East African country of Djibouti into China’s first overseas military base on the strategic Horn of Africa.

The Biden administration has fretted about Beijing’s intentions at Ream for years. President JOE BIDEN urged Cambodia’s then-Prime Minister HUN SEN to render “full transparency about activities by the PRC military at Ream Naval Base” when the two leaders met in 2022.

Asked for comment, the State Department today pointed us to comments by DANIEL KRITENBRINK, assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, in March in which he stated that the administration and regional allies had expressed concerns to Phnom Penh about China’s “intent, the nature and the scope of construction around the naval base,” along with how it might use the base in the future.

The base is likely to fuel fears in Vietnam — which fought a short border war with China in 1979 — about China’s regional ambitions “because it gives the Chinese navy access to seas very near Vietnam’s southern border,” SCOT MARCIEL, a former principal deputy assistant secretary for East Asia and the Pacific at the State Department, told NatSec Daily.

And it’s not just Vietnam that’s worried. Beijing’s efforts to project power “is everywhere in the Indo-Pacific” and poses a higher risk of potential conflict than tensions across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister JOSEPH WU told The Associated Press’ SIMINA MISTREANU and CHRISTOPHER BODEEN today.

Beijing insists that its activities at Ream are to boost the capacity of Cambodia’s navy. Hun Sen repeated that line in a speech last year. Cambodian Ambassador to the U.S. KEO CHHEA told POLITICO in June that his government wouldn’t allow China “to build any naval base in our country.” And he pointed to Article 53 of the country’s constitution, which forbids “any foreign military base on its territory” as the legal basis for that prohibition.

That ban isn’t foolproof. “It could be a rotational presence that [Beijing] doesn’t have to label as permanent as a way to get around the constitution,” KRISTEN GUNNESS, former director of the Navy Asia Pacific Advisory Group at the Pentagon and now a researcher at RAND Corporation, told NatSec Daily.

The benefits Beijing derives from Ream make it unlikely it will walk away anytime soon. “In terms of building influence in the region, it's good for China to have that presence, to say, ‘Hey, look — we're being supported by countries in the region,’” Gunness added.

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The Inbox

HOSTAGES FOUND DEAD: Israeli forces retrieved the bodies of three hostages killed during the attack on the Nova music festival on Oct. 7, whose bodies were then taken by Hamas to Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement.

They were identified as SHANI LOUK, AMIT BUSKILA and YITZHAK GELERNTER, the IDF said, adding that “we will continue operating to bring all of our hostages home.”

MORE GAZA TALKS: As Israel continues its military operation in Rafah, National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN will travel to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN before heading to Israel to talk with Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and other top Israeli officials, National Security Council JOHN KIRBY told reporters today.

BOOTS ON THE WATER: The first supplies were unloaded in Gaza today from the U.S. floating pier constructed off the coast of the enclave, The New York Times’ VICTORIA KIM reports.

No U.S. troops entered Gaza, the U.S. military said, as it provided only logistical support for the deliveries. The floating pier is the Biden administration’s latest plan to alleviate food shortages in the enclave, though humanitarian groups say it falls far short of what is needed to help Gazans, many of whom are facing famine.

The U.N. has taken possession of the first palettes of aid and is getting them ready for distribution, Kirby also said.

SPLITTING GAZA: Israel’s military is fortifying a strategic corridor that “carves Gaza in two, building bases, taking over civilian structures and razing homes,” The Washington Post reports.

That’s according to satellite imagery and other evidence, which military analysts and Israeli experts believe is part of a large-scale project to reshape the enclave and establish a presence for Israel’s military. Known as the Netzarim Corridor, the four-mile-long road south of Gaza City runs from east to west and stretches from the Israeli border to the Mediterranean.

Hamas has called for Israel’s pullout from the area in cease-fire demands, but Israeli forces have continued digging in over the past two months. Though Israel says it doesn’t want to govern Gaza after the war, the creation of roads, outposts and buffer zones shows that its military demonstrates an “expanding role for Israel’s military as alternative visions for postwar Gaza falter,” the Post writes.

The goal of the corridor appears to be allowing the Israeli military more control over the enclave: “What we need is full freedom of operation for the IDF everywhere in Gaza,” AMIR AVIVI, former deputy commander of the Israel Defense Forces’ Gaza Division, told the Post.

UKRAINE’S DEEP STRIKES: Russian authorities accused Ukraine of striking Russian territory this morning, hitting fuel depots, oil refineries and power facilities in an attack that involved more than 100 drones.

The extent of the damage caused in southwestern Russia and annexed Crimea was unclear, as NYT’s CONSTANT MÉHEUT and ANDRÉS MARTÍNEZ report, though rolling blackouts and fires were reported in some areas.

Ukraine has argued that it should be able to strike inside Russian territory and hit Russian oil depots, a move U.S. officials have warned against. As Moscow’s troops march forward (more on that below), don’t expect Ukraine’s offensives to stop.

KHARKIV PUSH CONTINUES: Russian forces have been able to push as far as six miles deep in their latest push in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said today, per The Kyiv Independent’s KATERYNA DENISOVA.

The forces were stopped by Ukraine’s first line of defense, and the region has been stabilized, Zelenskyy told reporters. Also today, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said that Russia isn’t planning to capture the city of Kharkiv despite his troops’ advancement, our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA reports.

It’s hard to believe that Putin wants to create a buffer zone and not seize Kharkiv as he seemingly preps for an extended war. The Post’s LARIS KARKLIS, JÚLIA LEDUR and RUBY MELLEN showed in an analysis today that Moscow has seized more land than Ukraine liberated in its summer counteroffensive last year.

Zelenskyy is feeling the pressure. As his military struggles to prepare enough fresh troops for war, Zelenskyy signed a law today allowing some convicts to serve on the frontlines, Reuters’ YULIIA DYSA reports.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring POLITICO News Editor ROSIE PERPER, whose name may sound familiar because we make fun of her on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, when she edits your favorite national security newsletter. She’s been putting up with us for almost two months now, so we figured we’d give a proper welcome to the team here.

Though she’s not a huge drinker, Rosie knows what she likes when she decides to vibe and imbibe. She’s a tequila fan — neat or with soda and fresh lime, keeping it classy.

“Occasionally a paloma or spicy marg. And it has to be good tequila — additive-free and 100 percent agave. I'm not a tequila snob per se but anything less reminds me of musty college dorms and sticky dancefloors,” Rosie said.

But that doesn’t mean Team NatSec Daily doesn’t tear up the dance floors every now and then.

Cheers, Rosie!

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil.

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ELECTION 2024

TRUMP’S IMMIGRATION CRACKDOWN: Former President DONALD TRUMP’s allies are actively crafting plans to execute an unprecedented immigration crackdown during his first days in office if he wins in November, The Wall Street Journal’s MICHELLE HACKMAN and ANDREW RESTUCCIA report.

The effort includes writing executive orders, policy memos and other documents to transform Trump’s campaign rhetoric into action if he takes office again. Trump would be prepared to stem the flow of migrants across the southern border, deconstruct Biden’s immigration agenda and begin the process for what Trump has said would be the largest mass deportation in American history.

Trump allies are discussing ways to “expedite migrants’ asylum hearings to make them more quickly eligible for deportation; rescind deportation protections for hundreds of thousands of migrants created by the Biden administration; and force countries across the globe to accept back more of their deported citizens,” the Journal writes.

Read: Trump’s son-in-law Kushner secures controversial Belgrade real estate deal by our own UNA HAJDARI

Keystrokes

UPDATING KENYA: Kenya is working to quickly digitize civilian services and step up cybersecurity following a major cyberattack on the country last year, pledging to work more with the U.S. and European Union on the matter, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in.

Last year, Kenya was hit by massive cyberattacks that temporarily took some government services offline and interrupted mobile payment and internet connections. Tanui said the attacks had only served to accelerate Kenya’s adoption of online digital services, and had enhanced cybersecurity collaboration with leading companies and with governments including Israel.

“We also think we need to reach out to global partners and build — whether with the EU, with the U.S. — stronger collaborations that can support us in building the right capacity,” JOHN TANUI, principal secretary of Kenya's Ministry of Information, Communications, and the Digital Economy, said during a Center for Strategic and International Studies event today.

The Complex

TALKING TAURUS: German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ is facing more pressure to send his long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine — from top officials in his own country, our own JAMIE DETTMER reports.

As loyal NatSec Daily readers know, Scholz doesn’t want to supply those missiles to Kyiv, out of fear that they’ll be used to strike deep inside Russian territory. He’s unlikely to change his mind on that, but then again, he did change his mind on sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine last year.

Speaking on the sidelines of a meeting of European foreign ministers in France today, German Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK said it’s important to provide weapons to Ukraine “that can be used over medium and long distances,” citing recent Russian advances in the Kharkiv region.

“We are also working with other partners on this,” Baerbock said, adding that the Ukrainians are in an “extremely difficult situation.”

On the Hill

AIPAC’S CALCULUS: The most prominent pro-Israel group in American politics has promised to pour tens of millions of dollars into this year’s elections — but it’s mostly not talking about Israel, our own NICHOLAS WU and MADISON FERNANDEZ report.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has entered several congressional races so far, attacking some candidates and boosting their own. But the topic of Israel has come up only minimally, in a handful of Republican races. And the group hasn’t talked about Israel in Democratic primaries at all.

So, what gives? AIPAC and its Super PAC United Democracy Project say they’re being strategic: “We run ads on the issues voters are most focused on,” UDP spokesperson PATRICK DORTON told our colleagues when asked why its ads do not always focus on Israel. “Where it makes sense, we will run ads on Israel this cycle, and we expect to do so in certain races going forward.”

BASHING BIDEN’S WEAPONS PAUSE: The House delivered a bipartisan rebuke of the Biden administration’s pledge to withhold certain heavy bombs from Israel amid its ongoing conflict in Gaza, passing a bill designed to compel delivery of the weapons, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reported Thursday evening.

Broadsides

THREATS TO LGBTQ+ COMMUNITY: The State Department issued a worldwide caution alert today to Americans abroad, citing the “increased potential for foreign terrorist organization-inspired violence against LGBTQI+ persons and events.” State urged citizens to exercise increased caution.

MAD AT MACRON: The White House isn't happy about French President EMMANUEL MACRON’s decision to invite a Kremlin representative to attend next month’s celebration of the 80th anniversary of the D-Day invasion, two administration officials told our own ELI STOKOLS and ALEX WARD.

“We would defer to the government of France, which organizes the commemoration at Normandy,” one of the officials said. “But perhaps this will remind the Russians that they actually fought real Nazis once, not imaginary ones in Ukraine.”

In advance of the D-Day commemoration, France invited a Russian representative to attend, setting up the possibility of a Russian official crossing paths with Biden, who will also be at the event. It is unclear which official from the Kremlin will be going, but the decision also sparked uproar among some European leaders.

‘MOCKERY … OF GENOCIDE’: Israel rebuked South Africa’s request for the International Court of Justice to order Israel to stop its military operation in Rafah, calling the case “completely divorced from facts and circumstances.”

As Reuters’ STEPHANIE VAN DEN BERG and ANTHONY DEUTSCH report, Israeli Justice Ministry official GILAD NOAM said the case “makes a mockery of the heinous charge of genocide.” South Africa also previously accused Israel of committing “acts of genocide” in Gaza.

The court is expected to make a decision on South Africa’s request next week. It previously stopped short of asking Israel to halt its military operations.

JOIN 5/22 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF TAXATION: With Trump-era tax breaks set to expire in 2025, whoever wins control of Congress, and the White House will have the ability to revamp the tax code and with it reshape the landscape for business and social policy. Join POLITICO on May 22 for an exploration of what is at stake in the November elections with our panel dissecting the ways presidential candidates and congressional leaders are proposing to reshape our tax rates and incentives. REGISTER HERE.

Transitions

— CARLOS RUIZ-HERNÁNDEZ was tapped to become Panama’s deputy secretary of State. He previously served as Panama's ambassador to the United Nations and as a senior foreign policy adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, among other roles at the Inter-American Dialogue and the Wilson Center.

— ERIC BEANE is now deputy under secretary for industry and security at the Department of Commerce. He most recently was SVP of regulatory and government affairs at Unite Us and also previously worked for GINA RAIMONDO when she was governor of Rhode Island and the Department of Justice.

What to Read

— ISHAAN THAROOR, The Washington Post: No one is rocking in the ‘free world’

— RAPHAEL COHEN and GIAN GENTILE, Foreign Policy: Biden’s catch-22 in Ukraine

— HAL BRANDS, Bloomberg: Why won't Biden let Ukraine hit Russia back with U.S. weapons?

Monday Today

— Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: Book discussion on "Statelet of Survivors: The Making of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeast Syria”

— Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: Strategic synergies: India-U.S. technology cooperation

— Middle East Institute and Freedom House, noon: U.S. policy on Iran: examining the opportunities to build a new bipartisan strategy

— Henry L. Stimson Center, noon: UNRWA's role in Gaza and the Middle East

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who should move to the Indo-Pacific and never come back.

We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, whose presence is always welcome here.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

A bigger perspective to the battlespace.

Seeing the whole picture is Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® – innovating defense tech to deliver answers exactly when and where they’re needed most. Learn more.